Paris climate target ‘will never die', remains world's ultimate goal: Researchers
BATHINDA: The world's expected passing of the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C limit during this decade raises pressure for countries to submit bold emissions reduction plans before COP30 in November, two researchers have warned.
Prof Joeri Rogelj and Lavanya Rajamani, in a paper published in Science, argues that determining precisely when the world crosses 1.5°C is not necessary, because the decisions needed in response – reduce emissions rapidly in the near term – are already clear and do not suddenly change at that point.
Instead, getting closer to 1.5°C should be a wake-up call for the world to focus on reducing greenhouse gas emissions this decade to limit the amount of warming the world experiences past 1.5°C to protect vulnerable groups, they say adding in the longer term reversing warming and getting below 1.5°C must be the goal.
The paper follows the hottest year ever on record, commentary that the 1.5°C target is 'deader than a doornail' and the fact that only 21 out of 195 countries that signed the Paris Agreement have thus far submitted new five-year emissions reduction plans.
Warming above 1.5°C greatly increases climate risks, including dangerous sea level rise, the collapse of coral reefs, the loss of the Greenland ice sheet and the dieback of the Amazon rainforest.
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Key arguments in the paper includes: Approaching or exceeding 1.5°C of warming does not extinguish the Paris Agreement's ambitious goal but makes urgent climate action even more important.
The exact timing of when the world crosses 1.5°C is less important than sustained efforts to cut emissions.
The Paris Agreement remains vital as a global framework to guide emissions cuts and adaptation efforts, despite geopolitical challenges.
Professor Rogelj, Director of Research at the Grantham Institute – Climate Change and the Environment, said: '1.5°C of warming is just around the corner and it will take a herculean effort to avoid it. 'This is deeply concerning, but crossing it makes the target more important because every fraction of warming – whether it is 1.6, 2 or 3°C – creates a more dangerous world and the longer we stay above 1.5°C, the higher the losses and damages for people will be.
'The key message of our paper is that 1.5°C will never die. It will remain our ultimate goal for a safe, livable and just planet. We need to remember that reversing warming is not a new goal, but already a key aim of the Paris Agreement.'
The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to keep warming 'well below 2°C' and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. Small island states proposed the 1.5°C target in the late 2000s as a matter of survival – '1.5 to stay alive' – and since 2015, it has become the immediate goal in the fight to tackle climate change.
However, the world is not currently on track to keeping warming below the Paris Agreement targets. Most countries are still burning large amounts of fossil fuels, which release emissions that cause the climate to warm. Global warming is expected to exceed 1.5°C before the end of the decade, near 2°C by 2050, and rise to between 2.6°C and 3.1°C over the course of the century. These projections have resulted in commentary that 1.5°C is 'dead' and calls from some researchers to determine the precise timing of when 1.5°C is crossed.
Professors Rogelj and Rajamani argue that exceeding 1.5°C does not mean abandoning the goal or triggering a specific policy shift for emissions reductions or adaptation needs but working harder to limit overshoot – the amount of warming experienced above 1.5°C . Their paper emphasises the need for countries to act with the highest ambition possible to bring emissions down to zero, achieve net-negative emissions, and get warming back below 1.5°C in the long-term.
They note that even in a world that has crossed 1.5°C, countries and businesses can continue to follow emission pathways aligned with the target.
The Paris Agreement remains the most important international tool for tackling climate change, particularly due to its requirement that countries submit plans to cut emissions every five years, the researchers say. While the deadline has been extended until September, just 21 of 195 countries signed up to the Paris Agreement have submitted their plan, known as a Nationally Determined Contribution or NDC.
NDCs with the highest possible cuts to emissions will reduce the amount of time the world spends above 1.5°C and reduce harm to human life and ecosystems, the researchers say.
Professor Lavanya Rajamani, Faculty of Law, University of Oxford, said: 'We want to reframe the way people talk about 1.5°C. Approaching or even surpassing it is a warning signal that states need to redouble their efforts, not to throw up their hands and declare 1.5°C 'over' or 'dead.'
'We need to stay focused on keeping warming below 1.5°C in the long term, and avoiding the worst impacts of climate change for people and the planet.'
'Our position is supported by a growing body of scientific evidence, the terms of the Paris Agreement, and the wider normative environment, including human rights obligations, that states are subject to.'
Professor Rogelj, Director of Research at the Grantham Institute – Climate Change and the Environment, said: 'There is no such thing as a safe level of warming.
'Even below 1.5°C we see dangerous climate change. Devastating weather disasters in 2024 really made that clear – just think of the Valencia floods, Hajj heatwave and Hurricane Helene which collectively killed more than 1,500 people.
'Every tonne of carbon emitted and every fraction of a degree counts. That's why we need to see bold NDCs before the COP30 climate summit in November that deliver meaningful emissions reductions before the end of the decade. A focus on near-term reductions is key to limiting the harms that come with warming above 1.5°C.'
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