Israel-Iran conflict: East Africa braces for supply chain cuts, higher costs

On Friday, the world woke up to attacks launched by Israel on Iran, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu describing the precision raids on Tehran's nuclear sites as a targeted military operation 'to roll back the Iranian threat to Israel's very survival.' The operation, he warned, could continue for as long as the threat remained. And Iran warned of a 'painful' response.
This war could add to a pile of conflicts that have hurt Africa in one way or another, especially the Horn of Africa. Some governments in the region are already expressing concerns, urging de-escalation. Kenya expressed concerns about the wider impact of the war.'We are following with deep concern the escalating situation in the Middle East that has the potential to spiral out of control with grievous implications for regional and global peace and security,' said Korir Sing'oei, Kenya's Foreign Affairs Principal Secretary.'We urge Israel and Iran to exercise restraint and seek peaceful resolution to the prevailing challenge that has triggered the current escalation in line with the Charter of the United Nations. A clear reason why we need a UNSC (United Nations Security Council) that functions and acts in the best interest of all.'Eastern Africa was already dealing with the toll of Sudan war, the Gaza conflict, the Russia-Ukraine war and the rise of piracy off the coast of Somalia, all of which had seen the cost of importation go up and some goods remain scarce.
As soon as the first attacks happened, the Iranian airspace was deserted and commercial airlines could be spotted avoiding the entire region where missiles could fly. Even Israeli airlines said they had relocated their aircraft to safer countries away from the conflict.
Farea Al-Muslimi, a research fellow on Middle East and North Africa Programme at the Chatham House, said a Houthi response is expected.'With Iran currently weakened and humiliated, this marks the first time the Houthis will be called upon to repay decades of Iranian investment and support,' said Al-Muslimi, indicating that Iran's other affiliated movements like the Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon have been weakened over the recent years.
But he argued that Houthis' known recklessness means their response is likely to go far beyond continued attacks on Israel.'Strikes in the Red Sea will likely resume, the ceasefire with the US may unravel, and we shouldn't be surprised if Saudi Arabia and the UAE are dragged back into direct conflict in Yemen. Attacks by the Houthis on US military bases in the Gulf, the Horn of Africa, and naval forces at sea are also highly plausible.'When Houthis, a Yemeni armed group, first targeted Israeli installations in support of Hamas, some countries, including Kenya, joined a US-led coalition meant to defeat the group. Later, the US reached a deal with Houthis not to attack ships. The danger in the Red Sea meant the cost of business in Eastern Africa was getting costlier.
George Omuga, East African Tea Trade Association (Eatta) managing director, said the new war would affect tea markets.'The situation in Iran, Pakistan and India is dire, which will affect sales,' Omuga told The EastAfrican, referring to a recent flare-up of tensions between Pakistan and India but which calmed down after the two sides reached a ceasefire in May.'We are asking for interventions and we expect internal conflicts in our main markets will be resolved as soon as possible. We need more markets for our tea.'Pakistan, UK, Iran and the Gulf are biggest buyers of Kenyan tea.
Sudan had been Kenya's second-biggest tea market in Africa, after Egypt. But Khartoum fell into war in April 2023, and the junta barred Kenyan products, accusing Nairobi of taking sides in the conflict.
Only this week did Sudan agree to clear of consignment of Kenyan tea shipped to the strife-torn country before it imposed a ban on trade in Nairobi on March 11, 2025.
Dr Winnie Rugutt, a lecturer at the University of Nairobi in the school of Diplomacy and Director, Africa Centre for the Study of the United States (ACSUS) in Nairobi, warns that the prolonged conflict in the Gulf would have far-reaching consequences on the supply chains and the region's exports to Europe and the rest of the world.'Our imports, particularly oil, and our exports, including tea, coffee through the Gulf have been affected due to the prolonged conflict,' Dr Rugutt said.'It is likely to adversely affect shipping of our commodities and impact the price of our imports. The price of some of our imports have already been affected by the current conflict in the Middle East.'Kenya and Uganda rely on imports passing through the Red Sea. Stakeholders said the tensions alone could derail normal business as people wait to see.'With escalation of war in the Middle East, we anticipate more trouble for shipment, longer transit time, freight costs and insurance increase. This will affect shelf life and competitiveness of our exports," said Shippers Council of Eastern Africa CEO Agayo Ogambi.
Most of the countries in the region have direct trade with Israel and Iran.
Maritime security expert Andrew Mwangura said: 'The conflict has now expanded beyond proxy warfare to direct military confrontation between the two regional powers and, for Kenya, thousands of miles away from the theatre of conflict, the economic repercussions are nonetheless significant and multifaceted. As a net oil importer heavily dependent on global energy markets, Kenya faces mounting pressure from volatile petroleum prices triggered by Middle Eastern instability."From October 2023, the Houthis have attacked more than 130 vessels in the Red Sea, forcing major shipping companies to abandon this vital corridor for the Cape of Good Hope in Africa, leading to much longer journey times of 10-14 days from Asia to Europe.
Kenya's ports of Mombasa and Lamu, which serve as crucial entry points for goods destined for landlocked East African countries, face reduced traffic and altered shipping patterns.
The rerouting of vessels around Africa's southern cape increases shipping costs and delivery times for imports essential to Kenya's economy, from manufactured goods to raw materials.
Additional reporting by Luke Anami © Copyright 2022 Nation Media Group. All Rights Reserved. Provided by SyndiGate Media Inc. (Syndigate.info).

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