Is a Chiefs-Eagles Super Bowl rematch the most likely scenario according to ESPN's latest rankings?
ESPN's latest Football Power Index predicts a potential Chiefs vs. Eagles Super Bowl rematch, highlighting both teams as top contenders. (Getty Images)
As ESPN unveiled its latest Football Power Index (FPI) rankings on Wednesday, the 2025 NFL season already feels like it's brimming with possibilities. With the Kansas City Chiefs securing the No.
2 spot in the rankings at +5.4, just behind the reigning Super Bowl champions, the Philadelphia Eagles (+5.5), fans and analysts alike are buzzing about a potential repeat showdown in Super Bowl LIX.
Though projections and statistics often dominate preseason narratives, the human element of football remains ever-present. As the iconic ESPN figure Chris Berman once said, 'That's why they play the games.' And indeed, despite all the models and metrics, there's still a staggering 95.8% chance that a different matchup takes the stage in February.
Are
Patrick Mahomes
and the Chiefs the top threat to the Eagles' Super Bowl redemption hopes?
The most likely Super Bowl pairing, according to the FPI, is a repeat of the 2023 classic: Kansas City vs. Philadelphia. ESPN's Seth Walder noted, 'Two of the past three Super Bowls have been between Kansas City and Philadelphia. Will it be three of four?' With a 4.2% probability—higher than any other combination—the Chiefs and Eagles are the heavyweights in this year's projections. The next most likely matchups? Ravens-Eagles and Bills-Eagles, sitting at 3.6% each.
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Still, while the statistical edge lies with these powerhouses, football history reminds us that anything can happen over the course of a grueling NFL season. Injuries, breakout stars, coaching strategies, and momentum shifts often turn predictions into afterthoughts by the time February rolls around.
While much of the national conversation focuses on emerging challengers and underdog narratives, Kansas City continues to reload with precision.
The dominance that the Chiefs have maintained in the AFC West still feels significant. Despite improvements made by the Los Angeles Chargers, Denver Broncos, and Las Vegas Raiders, Kansas City's edge remains apparent.
What often goes unnoticed is how the Chiefs themselves have improved during the offseason. The team addressed key gaps with promising additions. Veterans like left tackle Jaylon Moore and cornerback Kristian Fulton are expected to be Day 1 starters.
Meanwhile, high-upside rookies such as offensive lineman Josh Simmons and defensive linemen Omarr Norman-Lott and Ashton Gillottee bring fresh talent to both trenches—especially notable considering Gillottee and Norman-Lott posted some of the draft's best pass-rushing metrics.
While bold takes and dark horse picks dominate preseason chatter, analytical models help separate hype from hard data. The AFC West's FPI ratings reflect that Kansas City still owns the division.
The Chargers follow at +2.1, Denver sits at +1.3, and Las Vegas trails at -2.0.
Despite being the top-ranked team, the Eagles have just a 12% chance to win the Super Bowl—remarkably, the lowest for any preseason favorite since ESPN began projecting in 2015. This speaks to the NFL's increasing parity. The elite group—Philadelphia, Kansas City, Baltimore, Detroit, and Buffalo—is separated by a mere single FPI point.
On any neutral field, no team in this tier would be favored by more than one point.
Yet a sharp 1.8-point drop-off to the sixth-ranked Washington Commanders underlines the tier's exclusivity. These five teams form the core of the NFL's current power structure.
With the 2025 season on the horizon, the road to Super Bowl LIX remains uncertain—but if early projections hold, the Chiefs and Eagles may be destined for another epic collision. Then again, as Berman aptly reminds us, 'That's why they play the games.'
Also Read:
Are the Chiefs falling behind? Bills emerge as surprising AFC favorites heading into the 2025 season
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