Why some key Tehran allies have stayed out of the Israel-Iran conflict

'Despite all the restraining factors, wild cards remain,' said Tamer Badawi, an associate fellow with the Germany-based think tank Center for Applied Research in Partnership with the Orient.
Advertisement
That's especially true after the U.S. stepped in with strikes on three nuclear facilities in Iran.
The 'Axis of Resistance'
Hezbollah was formed with Iranian support in the early 1980s as a guerilla force fighting against Israel's occupation of southern Lebanon at the time.
The militant group helped push Israel out of Lebanon and built its arsenal over the ensuing decades, becoming a powerful regional force and the centerpiece of a cluster of Iranian-backed factions and governments known as the " Axis of Resistance."
The allies also include Iraqi Shiite militias and Yemen's Houthi rebels, as well as the Palestinian militant group Hamas.
At one point, Hezbollah was believed to have some 150,000 rockets and missiles, and the group's former leader, Hassan Nasrallah once boasted of having 100,000 fighters.
Advertisement
Seeking to aid its ally Hamas in the aftermath of the Palestinian militants' Oct. 7, 2023 attack on southern Israel and Israel's offensive in Gaza, Hezbollah began launching rockets across the border.
That drew Israeli airstrikes and shelling, and the exchanges escalated into full-scale war last September. Israel inflicted heavy damage on Hezbollah, killing Nasrallah and other top leaders and destroying much of its arsenal, before a U.S.-negotiated ceasefire halted that conflict last November. Israel continues to occupy parts of southern Lebanon and to carry out near-daily airstrikes.
For their part, the Iraqi militias occasionally struck bases housing U.S. troops in Iraq and Syria, while Yemen's Houthis fired at vessels in the Red Sea, a crucial global trade route, and began targeting Israel.
Keeping an ambiguous stance
Hezbollah has condemned Israel's attacks but did not immediately comment on the U.S. strikes on Iran. Just days before the U.S. attack, Hezbollah leader Naim Kassem said in a statement that the group 'will act as we deem appropriate in the face of this brutal Israeli-American aggression.'
Lebanese government officials have pressed the group to stay out of the conflict, saying that Lebanon cannot handle another damaging war, and U.S. envoy Tom Barrack, who visited Lebanon last week, said it would be a 'very bad decision' for Hezbollah to get involved.
Iraq's Kataib Hezbollah militia — a separate group from Hezbollah — had said prior to the U.S. attack that it will directly target U.S. interests and bases spread throughout the region if Washington gets involved. The group has also remained silent since Sunday's strikes.
The Houthis last month reached an agreement with Washington to stop attacks on U.S. vessels in the Red Sea in exchange for the U.S. halting its strikes on Yemen, but the group threatened to resume its attacks if Washington entered the Iran-Israel war.
Advertisement
In a statement on Sunday, the Houthis' political bureau described the U.S. attack on Iran as a 'grave escalation that poses a direct threat to regional and international security and peace.' The Houthis did not immediately launch strikes.
Reasons to stay on the sidelines
Hezbollah was weakened by last year's fighting and after losing a major supply route for Iranian weapons with the fall of Syrian President Bashar Assad, a key ally, in a lightning rebel offensive in December.
'Hezbollah has been degraded on the strategic level while cut off from supply chains in Syria,' said Andreas Krieg, a military analyst and associate professor at King's College London.
Still, Qassem Qassir, a Lebanese analyst close to Hezbollah, said a role for the militant group in the Israel-Iran conflict should not be ruled out.
'The battle is still in its early stages,' he said. 'Even Iran hasn't bombed American bases (in response to the U.S. strikes), but rather bombed Israel.'
He said that both the Houthis and the Iraqi militias 'lack the strategic deep strike capability against Israel that Hezbollah once had.'
Renad Mansour, a senior research fellow at the Chatham House think tank in London, said Iraq's Iran-allied militias have all along tried to avoid pulling their country into a major conflict.
Unlike Hezbollah, whose military wing has operated as a non-state actor in Lebanon — although its political wing is part of the government — the main Iraqi militias are members of a coalition of groups that are officially part of the state defense forces.
'Things in Iraq are good for them right now, they're connected to the state — they're benefitting politically, economically,' Mansour said. 'And also they've seen what's happened to Iran, to Hezbollah and they're concerned that Israel will turn on them as well.'
Advertisement
Badawi said that for now, the armed groups may be lying low because 'Iran likely wants these groups to stay intact and operational.'
'But if Iran suffers insurmountable losses or if the Supreme Leader (Ayatollah Ali Khamenei) is assassinated, those could act as triggers,' he said.

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Learn with AIFact CheckingText to SpeechAI Summary

Related Articles

USA Today

8 minutes ago

• USA Today

Oil hits five-month high after US hits key Iranian nuclear sites

SINGAPORE - Oil prices jumped on Monday, local time, to their highest since January as Washington's weekend move to join Israel in attacking Iran's nuclear facilities stoked supply worries. Brent crude futures rose $1.88 or 2.44% at $78.89 a barrel as of 1122 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude advanced $1.87 or 2.53% at $75.71. Both contracts jumped by more than 3% earlier in the session to $81.40 and $78.40, respectively, five-month highs, before giving up some gains. The rise in prices came after President Donald Trump said he had "obliterated" Iran's main nuclear sites in strikes over the weekend, joining an Israeli assault in an escalation of conflict in the Middle East as Tehran vowed to defend itself. Iran is OPEC's third-largest crude producer. Market participants expect further price gains amid mounting fears that an Iranian retaliation may include a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of global crude supply flows. Iran's Press TV reported that the Iranian parliament approved a measure to close the strait. Iran has in the past threatened to close the strait but has never followed through on the move. "The risks of damage to oil infrastructure ... have multiplied," said Sparta Commodities senior analyst June Goh. Although there are alternative pipeline routes out of the region, there will still be crude volumes that cannot be fully exported out if the Strait of Hormuz becomes inaccessible. Shippers will increasingly stay out of the region, she added. Brent has risen 13% since the conflict began on June 13, while WTI has gained around 10%. The current geopolitical risk premium is unlikely to last without tangible supply disruptions, analysts said. Meanwhile, the unwinding of some of the long positions accumulated following a recent price rally could cap an upside to oil prices, Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, wrote in a market commentary on Sunday. (Reporting by Siyi Liu in Singapore; Editing by Himani Sarkar)

Bloomberg

22 minutes ago

• Bloomberg

US Issues ‘Worldwide Caution' for Americans After Attack on Iran

The US State Department issued a 'Worldwide Caution' alert for American citizens, flagging the potential of travel disruptions and demonstrations following the US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. 'The conflict between Israel and Iran has resulted in disruptions to travel and periodic closure of airspace across the Middle East,' the State Department said in a statement. 'There is the potential for demonstrations against US citizens and interests abroad. The Department of State advises US citizens worldwide to exercise increased caution.'

Fox News

26 minutes ago

• Fox News

White House calls CNN 'fake news' for report claiming Democratic leadership wasn't briefed on Iran strike

Print Close By Lindsay Kornick Published June 22, 2025 White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt demanded CNN retract a story on Sunday that claimed Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries were not briefed on President Donald Trump's strike on Iran. Trump launched "Operation: Midnight Hammer" on Saturday and struck three of Iran's key nuclear facilities in a surprise attack. The White House announced the success of the attack later that night. CNN reported that House Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune, both Republicans, were briefed on the strikes ahead of time, with Schumer and Jeffries, both Democrats, receiving notifications only before the public announcement and well after the attack. TOP DEMOCRATS, MEDIA DECLARE US AT WAR AFTER IRAN STRIKES AS WHITE HOUSE PUSHES BACK ON NARRATIVE Leavitt called the report "fake news" on X. "This is Fake News. The White House made bipartisan courtesy calls to Congressional Leadership and spoke to @SenSchumer before the strike. @RepJeffries could not be reached until after, but he was briefed. @CNN please retract," Leavitt wrote. Fox News Digital reached out to Schumer and Jeffries' offices for comment. The CNN report added that Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va., and Rep. Jim Himes, D-Ct., who are members of the intelligence committees in the Senate and House respectively, were not told until after the strikes. CNN didn't immediately respond to a request for comment. Both Schumer and Jeffries released statements over the weekend condemning Trump for the strikes on Iran. SECRETARY OF STATE MARCO RUBIO CLASHES WITH CBS HOST OVER IRANIAN NUCLEAR AMBITIONS Although both criticized Trump for not seeking congressional authorization for the attack, neither claimed that they were not briefed or notified before the actual strike. In his statement, Schumer called on Thune to enforce the War Powers Act. "No president should be allowed to unilaterally march this nation into something as consequential as war with erratic threats and no strategy," Schumer said. CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP Print Close URL