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Carrier revocations overachievement illustrates increasing market vulnerability

Carrier revocations overachievement illustrates increasing market vulnerability

Yahoo13 hours ago

Chart of the Week: Carrier Details Net Revocations – USA SONAR: CDNR.USA
Carrier Net Revocations—which measure how many truckload operators (businesses) are exiting the industry—have remained unseasonably elevated throughout the first half of the year. The current pace of exits is 16% higher than during the same period in 2024. Although new authority issuances have increased this year, they've stumbled in recent weeks as new enforcement behaviors and processes may be creating additional barriers to entry.
The U.S. truckload market remains a challenging landscape for many carriers and 3PLs, with demand still too low to support stable business operations. While there has been marginal improvement over the past several years, it hasn't been enough to push rates high enough to support the current level of capacity. Many structural issues persist, raising the risk of capacity falling to critically low levels.
Tender rejection rates (OTRI) — which measure how often carriers decline shipper requests for capacity — have been steadily rising since May 2023. This trend indicates declining carrier availability. In weaker markets, carriers are generally more willing to accept freight, so rising rejection rates in a down market carry more weight.
Spot rates (NTIL), traditionally used to gauge truckload market health, have followed a similar upward trajectory. However, rates can be a noisy metric, as fluctuations in haul lengths and inflationary cost inputs can distort the picture. While spot rates are flat year-over-year, operating costs have risen—making profitability more elusive. Diesel prices have declined, offering a rare relief. (Note: fuel costs are excluded from the charted rate index.)
In May, the president issued new guidance on enforcing english language proficiency at a state level for drivers. While the specifics of enforcement remain unclear, the move could create additional hurdles for new entrants.
Additionally, efforts to crack down on CDL fraud have intensified, with stricter vetting processes further raising the bar for prospective drivers.
Tender volumes (OTVI) are down approximately 10–15% compared to this time last year. While much of this decline stems from mode shift—particularly in long-haul freight moving to intermodal—recent trends suggest that overall demand may also be softening.
Beyond the obvious issue of lower demand undermining core business, inconsistent volume makes it harder for carriers to maintain balanced networks, often requiring months to realign.
All these factors point to growing systemic risk in the trucking industry as capacity continues to exit the market. Historically, every major market flip has had a catalyst, but each was preceded by recession-like conditions within the freight space.
The 2017 market boom followed a year and a half of softness. The pandemic surge came after a deep freight recession in 2019. Today's downturn is one of the longest and most severe on record. The market may have flipped already if not for supply chain lessons learned during COVID and the broader economic uncertainty.
Market inflections are inherently difficult to predict, but the sustained pace of carrier revocations signals that supply is rapidly converging with demand.
The FreightWaves Chart of the Week is a chart selection from SONAR that provides an interesting data point to describe the state of the freight markets. A chart is chosen from thousands of potential charts on SONAR to help participants visualize the freight market in real time. Each week a Market Expert will post a chart, along with commentary, live on the front page. After that, the Chart of the Week will be archived on FreightWaves.com for future reference.
SONAR aggregates data from hundreds of sources, presenting the data in charts and maps and providing commentary on what freight market experts want to know about the industry in real time.
The FreightWaves data science and product teams are releasing new datasets each week and enhancing the client experience.
To request a SONAR demo, click here.
The post Carrier revocations overachievement illustrates increasing market vulnerability appeared first on FreightWaves.

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What Do Employees Really Want Instead Of Pizza Parties?

'Overworked and underpaid employees don't want pizza parties and team-building exercises,' he said. His eyes looked strained, and I couldn't tell if he had a headache or was exhausted… I guessed both. 'What's wrong with pizza?' I joked, trying to lighten the mood. 'Nothing. I like pizza. But when you're stressed about finances, have to fight for every penny you make, juggle more responsibilities than you have time, and doing everything you can to exceed expectations to the point of burnout… well, what you need is to feel valued, have opportunities for growth, a wage and a title that reflects everything that you're doing, some help, strong support and a good work culture… some freakin' hope… something that has more of a lasting impact than a slice of pizza.' I remained silent. I couldn't decide if I was allowing him more space to think or if I was thinking to myself how much I agreed with him. 'It's almost insulting,' he continued. '99.9% of the time, they act like they don't even recognize our existence, and now they want to throw us a party? No thanks. Having a party is great, but first, let's get your team healthy enough to enjoy it.' He paused. 'They're panhandling a superficial solution to a real problem.' 'And what's the real problem?' I asked. 'They aren't investing in people — they're investing in results. They don't realize that the results will exceed their expectations if you authentically invest in good, hardworking, talented people. Despite the lack of meaningful appreciation and resources, we have a great team. Think what it could be if they added the missing components.' He removed his glasses and wiped his eyes. He stared at me with a tiredness that went well beyond the moment. 'Wouldn't it be nice to have an environment where employees are invested in so much that they could find another job but don't because they love where they work?' he asked. 'That would be nice,' I said. 'What do you think is going to happen?' 'We are woefully under-supported, yet the expectations keep rising. Essentially, we're being set up to fail… either by failing to reach their unattainable bar or by failing our health and family in thinking that we must continue without setting realistic boundaries. Heck, it could end where I cannot meet their increasing expectations, get let go, and cannot even use them as a reference. That would be ridiculous, as I'm a great employee. I feel destined to fail, and that's a horrible feeling.' 'Sounds like fear is playing a role, too,' I said. 'You bet it does! They have me: I am too strapped for time and finances to even look for another job. By the end of the workday, I'm beyond exhausted, have headaches, can't sleep, and am barely present for my family. Yet, I'm doing this for my family. That's messed up. Worst, I actually like my job. Heck, I'm great at it. But who cares? They'd rather put money into hiring other positions and socials than caring for the few doing the bulk of the work. Where does that leave me? Seriously, where? It leaves me angry because I CARE.' I didn't say anything. 'Right… you're lack of response has been my answer for a long time. I can't do a damn thing, and they know it. But you know what?' 'What?' 'Even more than what I know about them, I know me,' he said. 'I've been in much worse situations than this one. I'm accustomed to survival mode. The difference was that I was fighting for something worth the sacrifice. Here, I am fighting to take care of my family in an environment that isn't fighting for me. The sacrifice, as it stands, is not supporting my why… if I am too sick or strained to be available to my family, why am I giving my limited energy to a job that would soon forget me the moment I'm gone?' 'Very true,' I said. 'I have two months of savings in my account. If I quit today, I would have two months to look for a job. Imagine what I could do with two months of actual rest and serenity. Granted, it would be stressful, especially since I'm already familiar with the devil I know. But, as it stands now, eventually, my body will force me to take two months off to recuperate from whatever condition I'm bringing upon myself. So, if I have to be down and out, wouldn't it be better to be down and out to find a job — rested and fed — than sick?' 'Sounds like you lack work-life balance because you fear losing your job if you speak up, fear failing their continued rising expectations, and fear of an eventual health prognosis of keeping your job if nothing changes,' I said. 'I'm afraid either way, I'm going to lose everything,' he said. 'Let's play that out. What if you lost your job today for whatever reason? What horrible thing could happen?' I asked. 'I could have a hard time finding another job due to the economy, I could be forced to sell our home, I would default on some loans, I would….' He stopped. 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You know you are a valuable employee. You mentioned to me earlier that you've been a stellar employee in every job you've had. Guess what? You will be again if you choose to get another job. Stop allowing others to pacify you with empty promises and pizza parties. Speak to what you want, whether a promotion or help … whatever you know to be true. If they don't see your requests as valid, that doesn't make them false. It just means they don't know your worth… make sure you do.' 'I know my worth, but I also know my responsibilities,' he said. 'That's fair. Often, we do things as adults because we 'have to' more than 'want to.' Responsibility isn't meant to be taken lightly or shirked. Over time, however, we must pay attention to patterns, noticing when individuals consistently demonstrate that they are not going to change and when it is upon us to change.' 'I get that. I'm just terrified of letting my family down,' he said. The weight upon him was suffocating, and I could tell he was carrying a burden that would eventually break him. 'That's speaking from a position of self-loathing and shame. Such thinking keeps you stagnant in areas where God has gifted you and given you talents to grow. There is nothing shameful about taking care of your health, not diminishing your value, and moving forward in full faith that God is opening doors you haven't even seen.' 'Opening doors I haven't even seen,' he repeated. 'I like the sound of that.' 'All I'm saying is keep your options open… you've convinced yourself that you're trapped. You're not. Even if things change for the better in your current job or it all falls away, the most important things will remain. And God will eventually position you on higher ground. He knows your needs. He knows you. Believe this. Trust God. And move forward, being okay with whatever outcome God provides.' 'Whatever outcome God provides. Yes,' he said. 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