The SNP's best strategy for independence is hoping the Labour Government fails
John Swinney's dubious claim that independence is 'within reach' is a sign of weakness, not strength.
The past seven months have seen the First Minister steer the SNP ship away from the rocks.
He helped reset Scottish politics and watched as Labour's poll rating sank towards the sea-bed.
But the SNP's shock by-election defeat in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse has exposed the frailties of the Nationalists.
Defeat led to bizarre calls for Swinney to quit and the mutterings about the lack of a plan to deliver independence grew louder.
Swinney's independence speech today was an attempt at calming the internal snipers, rather than speaking to the broader electorate.
The reality is Swinney should be commended for parking independence while he tried to sort out public services.
Nicola Sturgeon teased independence supporters with dates, milestones and promises for a referendum that proved to be a phantom.
She also hardened the constitutional divide at a time when bringing the country back together should have been the priority.
The First Minister knows the chances of indyref2 are negligible following the Supreme Court decision which slammed the door on Holyrood organising its own vote.
The judges ruled that an independence referendum is a reserved issue, not a devolved matter.
The UK Government can - and would - say no to indyref2 and there is nothing the SNP can do to dismantle this legal wall.
Making false claims about independence being close simply paves the way for disappointing natural supporters even more.
The top priority for Swinney should be holding on to power next year, not marching his indy troops to the top of the hill on another fruitless escapade.
Without being in Government in Edinburgh, any residual leverage he has to shape the constitutional debate vanishes.
A credible plan for nudging the independence debate forward is obvious and probably forms the basis of Swinney's private thinking.
If Labour loses the next election, Nigel Farage will likely become Prime Minister and support for Scotland leaving the UK will soar.
The fate of the independence projects rests largely on the success or otherwise of Keir Starmer in office.
Such a strategy requires patience over speeches that reek of previous failures.
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