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The Hill
a day ago
- Politics
- The Hill
Chinese leaders have a long history of strategic deception
In September 2015, President Xi Jinping stood in the Rose Garden next to President Barack Obama and made an unambiguous commitment: China had 'no intention to militarize' the artificial islands it was building in the South China Sea. The statement carried the solemn authority of a great power — a promise between world leaders, witnessed by the international community. Yet within three years, satellite imagery revealed military-grade airstrips stretching across previously submerged reefs. Hardened missile shelters dotted landscapes that had once been underwater and advanced radar installations scanned surrounding seas. The 'civilian outposts' had transformed into forward military bases projecting power across one of the world's most critical waterways. This dramatic reversal, from public commitment to calculated breach, exemplifies a pattern that has defined China's international relations for seven decades. The Chinese Communist Party has perfected strategic deception — the art of making promises it never intends to keep when the calculus favors breaking them. This isn't merely diplomatic inconsistency but a deliberate strategy that has yielded extraordinary dividends across decades of patient execution. As the Trump administration resumes trade talks with China, American representatives would do well to keep this history in mind. The seeds were planted during China's civil war, when the Communist Party's survival depended on strategic misrepresentation. In the 1940s, Mao Zedong and Zhou Enlai presented themselves to U.S. diplomats not as hardened revolutionaries but as moderate 'agrarian reformers' seeking democratic change. This calculated deception yielded tangible benefits: diminished American support for the Nationalists and, ultimately, a Communist victory in 1949. The pattern continued with deadly consequences just a year later. As American forces approached the Chinese border during the Korean War, Beijing repeatedly assured the world it would not intervene — right until hundreds of thousands of 'volunteer' soldiers poured across the Yalu River in a massive surprise offensive. The resulting conflict cost millions of lives and cemented the Cold War division of Asia that persists to this day. By the 1970s, as geopolitical calculations shifted, party leaders recognized the value of rapprochement with the U.S. During President Richard Nixon's landmark visit, Mao and Zhou downplayed their revolutionary ideology and the ongoing brutality of the Cultural Revolution, strategically masking their domestic repression to secure diplomatic recognition and economic benefits. China also signed the Sino-U.K. Joint Declaration on Hong Kong in 1984, promising to keep the status quo for 50 years — before violating that agreement when the Communist Party cracked down on protests in 2019. By the late 1980s, China had learned that Americans suffer from political amnesia. By offering the appearance of cooperation and reform today, they could make Americans forget the deceptions of yesterday. This approach produced remarkable dividends. Within a decade, Western companies were investing billions in China, transferring technology and expertise that would become the foundation for China's economic miracle. The 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre briefly disrupted this process, but Western businesses soon returned, teaching Chinese leaders that the consequences of broken promises are temporary, while the benefits often prove permanent. This pattern has been most consequential in China's accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001. Chinese negotiators made expansive commitments to market reforms, intellectual property protection and non-discriminatory treatment of foreign companies. Western leaders, intoxicated by the vision of accessing a billion consumers, convinced themselves that economic liberalization would inevitably lead to political openness. 'The leadership has concluded that their country would be better off with more competition, more rule of law, and more contact with the rest of the world,' declared President Bill Clinton. 'They believe that if they open their economy, they inevitably open their society.' Two decades later, the reality stands in sharp contrast. China has implemented its WTO commitments selectively, engaging in large-scale industrial policy and restricting market access when it serves domestic priorities. The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative estimates that U.S. companies lose between $225 billion and $600 billion annually to Chinese intellectual property theft. Millions of American jobs have been lost to China, which dominates global manufacturing. Yet this hasn't deterred American policymakers from signing more unenforceable deals with Beijing, as when China pledged to President Trump to increase purchases of U.S. manufactured goods during 2020 and 2021 — failing to honor its commitment a year into the agreement. This pattern found yet another expression during the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite international commitments, Chinese officials delayed informing the World Health Organization about human-to-human transmission, silenced whistleblowers and restricted information-sharing. China, while implementing strict containment domestically, simultaneously opposed international travel restrictions and pressured against declaring a global emergency. Once again, a commitment to international norms — in this case, obligations under International Health Regulations — was subordinated to domestic political imperatives. Understanding this pattern requires seeing the strategic logic behind it. As a Leninist party-state primarily committed to self-preservation, the Chinese Communist Party approaches international commitments instrumentally, evaluating them on the sole basis of utility. The 'century of humiliation' trained Chinese leaders to distrust outsiders and use deception when necessary. As Deng Xiaoping put it in a famous speech, 'hide capacity and bide time.' Moreover, China has learned that the costs of breaking its commitments are often low. International outrage fades, economic penalties are absorbed by a massive domestic market and Western companies and governments — driven by greed or naivete — remain eager to access Chinese consumers despite repeated disappointments. The Chinese Communist Party has mastered what might be called the 'liar's dividend': violating commitments often carries fewer costs than honoring them, especially when enforcement mechanisms are weak and other parties have short memories. Understanding this pattern doesn't mean abandoning engagement with China, it means approaching engagement with clear-eyed realism. Future agreements must include robust verification mechanisms, specific timelines and meaningful safeguards lifted upon compliance. American policymakers must also recognize their own role in enabling this pattern by repeatedly downplaying violations in pursuit of market access. Breaking this cycle requires institutional memory and consistent enforcement across administrations. Perhaps most importantly, U.S. strategy must acknowledge that some aspects of the Chinese system are inherently incompatible with many international norms. No amount of diplomatic pressure will convince the Chinese Communist Party to embrace values that threaten its monopoly on power. Rather than expecting transformative change through engagement, U.S. policy should focus on specific, verifiable actions that serve mutual interests, particularly amidst competition between the two great powers. After seven decades of strategic commitment-breaking, perhaps the most dangerous illusion is the belief that the next Chinese promise will somehow be different. As American representatives negotiate trade with Beijing, they would do well to secure not just the 'best' trade deal for the U.S., but one that accounts for the possibility of deception. Mathis Bitton is a Ph.D. candidate in government at Harvard University studying Chinese historical thought. George Yean is a Ph.D. candidate at Harvard studying Sino-U.S. trade relations.
Daily Mail
2 days ago
- Business
- Daily Mail
LIZ SMITH: SNP's shameful betrayal over winter fuel will not be forgotten - or forgiven
Yesterday's latest U-turn by John Swinney over his government's policy on the universal winter fuel payment was, if anything, even more humiliating, unprincipled and deceitful than the one Rachel Reeves performed last week. The SNP furiously protested after the UK Chancellor's shameful decision to abolish the allowance last year that they had no option but to follow suit. That is always the first rule in the Nationalists' playbook – blame someone, anyone, else rather than accept responsibility for unpopular decisions. The reality is that the SNP had the money to make the payment this year. They had the devolved power for future years to continue providing a winter fuel payment – just as they do with a number of other benefits. The fact that some of them are financially irresponsible and place an unsustainable strain on public spending doesn't seem to hold them back. But provided with Labour's example, they had no hesitation in following suit. Then, when the impact of their policy on the most vulnerable pensioners became clear and – more importantly, from their point of view – it also became apparent just how unpopular it was, the Nats suddenly announced that they would reintroduce payments. And, John Swinney declared with great fanfare, it would be universal. Though he made less noise about the fact that some people would see the payment cut by £200. Now, in a broken promise which is breathtaking even by the First Minister's standards, he's changed his mind about that. We learned yesterday that hundreds of thousands of pensioners will not, after all, qualify for the SNP's version of the allowance. At the same time, he's announced two separate rates, at £203.40 and £305.10 – figures which seem to have been picked solely so that the SNP can claim that they are being more generous than the UK government. That childish and cynical attempt at one-upmanship and deliberately misleading rates is exactly the sleight-of-hand approach that the Nationalists took with income tax, when they made Scotland the highest taxed part of the country. Mr Swinney constantly claims most Scots pay less, but never mentions those sums are a few pounds, while the majority of working Scots, who are hit by their punitive rates, are often paying several thousands more. The Labour government's decision to abolish the universal winter fuel payment was, of course, a straight betrayal of their election promises. It was a cruel and vindictive assault on vulnerable pensioners. And, as we've learned from its reversal in Rachel Reeves' spending review, it was all completely unnecessary. We were told at the time that it was essential to plug an unexpected 'black hole' in the public finances. That contradicted what Rachel Reeves said before the election, when she accepted that there couldn't be any surprises because of the Office for Budget Review's (OBR) figures. And the OBR, it turned out, couldn't find any sign of the black hole she blamed. Now the Chancellor claims that she has fixed this imaginary shortfall and put the economy on a sound footing, so she can afford to reverse the cut. It is impossible to find a single credible economic analyst who does not say that this is obvious nonsense. The economy is stalling. Economic inactivity is worsening. Borrowing is going through the roof. All the economic experts are united in the view that the Chancellor will be back in the autumn, and that she will be announcing very substantial tax rises. But in SNP-run Scotland – where the government has already made emergency budgets an annual event – things will be even worse. The economic pain will be amplified by the SNP's wasteful and irresponsible spending which, even with the Union dividend and John Swinney's punitive higher taxes, greatly exceeds their income. Over the course of this disgraceful policy shambles, Labour's approach has been dishonest and needlessly created real suffering and anxiety for pensioners. But, if anything, the SNP have managed to make matters worse. The constant chopping and changing by ministers is causing more needless anxiety for Scottish pensioners. Their latest announcement is confusing. But one point is clear – hundreds of thousands of Scots will not have the payment even partially restored – despite John Swinney's promise that they would. It's a shameful betrayal that will not be forgotten or forgiven by Scotland's pensioners.
Edinburgh Reporter
2 days ago
- Politics
- Edinburgh Reporter
Data shows prison officer assaults are a daily occurrence
Figures have revealed that one prison officer almost every day was assaulted by an inmate while on duty in Scotland's increasingly violent jails. Scottish Prison Service (SPS) data shows 350 officers were attacked during 2024/25 – the highest number in five years – with critics claiming violence behind bars is spiralling out of control. Data supplied under Freedom of Information shows 1,543 officers were victims of assault between 2020/21 and 2024/25. There were 313 assaults in 2023/24, 261 in 2022/23, with 294 and 325 incidents in 2020/21 and 2021/22 respectively. According to the Prison Officers' Association, jails are the 'most hostile and violent workplace of anywhere or any other occupation in the world'. They warn overcrowding, drug abuse, bullying and organised crime gang activities inside Scotland's crisis-hit prison system are placing overworked staff under intolerable pressure. Scottish Conservative shadow justice secretary Liam Kerr MSP said the 'damning' figures laid bare the 'brutal reality facing prison officers'. He said: 'Violence has spiralled out of control as the Nationalists have relentlessly slashed budgets, leaving hardworking staff at the mercy of dangerous inmates. 'Resources should be clearly targeted so that prison officers get the extra support they desperately need or else ministers run the risk of experienced staff quitting the SPS. 'Instead of continually betraying those working in our justice system, the SNP must start prioritising their safety.' Scottish Labour Justice spokesperson Pauline McNeill said the 'appalling figures' show violence is on the rise in Scotland's prisons and staff are being put in danger. She said: 'Under the SNP, Scotland's prisons are dangerously overcrowded and it is causing chaos. 'It's imperative that the Scottish Government has a plan in place to give prison officers the resources they need to keep staff safe in a job that carries such risks. 'If we can learn anything from other jurisdictions such as England and Wales we should and with some urgency. 'The SNP must wake up to this growing crisis and work with the Scottish Prison Service to keep staff and prisons safe.' Scottish Liberal Democrat Justice spokesperson Liam McArthur MSP insisted 'no one should go to work expecting to be assaulted'. He said: 'Huge numbers of people, many of whom have complex problems, are being sent to a place proven to worsen their likelihood of reoffending. 'In turn, overworked prison staff are finding themselves with less time to work with individuals to help improve their prospects and are increasingly encountering unsafe situations. 'Prisons can be a pressure cooker but the government must ensure that high safety standards are maintained across the entire prison sector. 'It's time for the Justice Secretary to recognise that a step change is necessary. It's crucial we strike a balance between punishing, rehabilitating and supporting — that is how we will reduce reoffending and make communities safer.' A spokesperson for the Scottish Government said attacks on prisoners and prison staff are 'completely unacceptable' and all incidents were reported to Police Scotland. They added: 'To continue to provide a safe and secure prison estate, we have increased investment in the Scottish Prison Service resource budget by 10% to £481.5million in 2025/26.' An SPS spokesperson said: 'We take a zero-tolerance approach to violence. 'We take consistent and robust action against those in our care who perpetrate violence and offer support to those affected by it, including our staff.' Photo by Donald Tong on Like this: Like Related
Daily Record
3 days ago
- Politics
- Daily Record
The SNP's best strategy for independence is hoping the Labour Government fails
John Swinney's dubious claim that independence is 'within reach' is a sign of weakness, not strength. The past seven months have seen the First Minister steer the SNP ship away from the rocks. He helped reset Scottish politics and watched as Labour's poll rating sank towards the sea-bed. But the SNP's shock by-election defeat in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse has exposed the frailties of the Nationalists. Defeat led to bizarre calls for Swinney to quit and the mutterings about the lack of a plan to deliver independence grew louder. Swinney's independence speech today was an attempt at calming the internal snipers, rather than speaking to the broader electorate. The reality is Swinney should be commended for parking independence while he tried to sort out public services. Nicola Sturgeon teased independence supporters with dates, milestones and promises for a referendum that proved to be a phantom. She also hardened the constitutional divide at a time when bringing the country back together should have been the priority. The First Minister knows the chances of indyref2 are negligible following the Supreme Court decision which slammed the door on Holyrood organising its own vote. The judges ruled that an independence referendum is a reserved issue, not a devolved matter. The UK Government can - and would - say no to indyref2 and there is nothing the SNP can do to dismantle this legal wall. Making false claims about independence being close simply paves the way for disappointing natural supporters even more. The top priority for Swinney should be holding on to power next year, not marching his indy troops to the top of the hill on another fruitless escapade. Without being in Government in Edinburgh, any residual leverage he has to shape the constitutional debate vanishes. A credible plan for nudging the independence debate forward is obvious and probably forms the basis of Swinney's private thinking. If Labour loses the next election, Nigel Farage will likely become Prime Minister and support for Scotland leaving the UK will soar. The fate of the independence projects rests largely on the success or otherwise of Keir Starmer in office. Such a strategy requires patience over speeches that reek of previous failures.
Daily Mail
7 days ago
- Politics
- Daily Mail
Kemi: SNP are stoking the politics of envy… Scots deserve better
Kemi Badenoch has insisted Scots 'deserve better' than the SNP as she launched a blistering attack on its failings in government – and claimed Nigel Farage is a threat to the Union. The Conservative leader said Scotland is in decline under a Nationalist government focused on stoking division, with education, justice and the NHS going backwards while millions of pounds of taxpayers' cash is wasted on 'independence propaganda' and the ferries fiasco. She said the SNP needs to be defeated in next year's Holyrood elections because 'the Scottish people deserve better', and are 'paying for more and getting less'. She also claimed that Nigel Farage is a threat to the Union because he does not care about more SNP rule. In her first address to the Scottish Conservative conference as leader, she said: 'We have seen Scotland decline under the rule of Left-wing parties that stoke division and the politics of envy.' She said education standards have fallen to record lows on the SNP's watch, while police numbers have plunged and the NHS recovery is ' lagging behind England' – with 100 times as many patients in Scotland's hospitals waiting more than 104 weeks for treatment than south of the Border. She said the SNP was still 'obsessed' with breaking up Britain and has been 'wasting millions on independence propaganda'. And she accused the Nationalists of wasting money on 'failed ferry projects', hate crime laws which threaten free speech and 'putting male rapists in women's prisons'. She said: 'This year we saw the SNP suffer yet another loss in the Supreme Court, because instead of sorting out Scotland they were trying to redefine what a woman is. 'This is not a party focused on what people in Scotland need, so we need to bring about their electoral defeat. Because the Scottish people deserve better.' She insisted that 'the answer to these problems does not involve any more devolution'. Hitting back at Reform, which finished ahead of the Tories in third place in last week's Hamilton by-election, she said: 'The Union is just not that important to them. In April this year, Nigel Farage said he would be fine with the SNP winning another five years in power. 'He's fine with another five years of higher bills, longer waiting lists, declining school standards, gender madness, and ultimately, independence. 'Reform will vote to let the SNP in, Conservatives will only ever vote to get the Nationalists out.' Her comments about Reform refer to Mr Farage saying in a recent interview that he is 'not that worried about the SNP' and that the party is 'going to have a resurgence'. Asked by journalists after her speech in Edinburgh if Mr Farage is an 'active threat to the Union', Ms Badenoch said: 'If he wants the SNP to have another five years, that is a threat to the Union, so yes.' On the Barnett Formula – the funding mechanism which delivered an extra £9.1billion over three years to Scotland in this week's spending review – she said it was not the problem, 'it is the SNP that is the problem'. She said: 'It doesn't matter how you change it, they're still going to mess things up. 'What we need to do is get the SNP out of running Scotland, and then all sorts of things will start to improve.' In her speech, Ms Badenoch condemned the income tax gap between Scotland and the rest of the UK, and said: 'The SNP's failure to grow Scotland's economy has cost public services more than £1billion in this year alone. And that's before Labour's jobs tax kills growth. 'Scottish people are paying for more and getting less.' She said she will demand that the windfall tax on oil and gas is ended, saying: 'I didn't agree with imposing the levy in government ... But it is a good example of what I think we got wrong.' Introducing Ms Badenoch yesterday, Scottish Conservative leader Russell Findlay said: 'We are under new management: two new leaders with a shared vision to renew our party and champion our common sense Conservative values. 'We are both realistic about the challenges we face, but we are also optimistic that our party can earn back public trust. 'Our country needs a strong Conservative and Unionist Party that can win again across the United Kingdom. We need it because of the damage that our rivals are doing to our country. 'The SNP are weaker for Scotland. Look at the mess they have made of our beloved country.' Scottish Labour deputy leader Jackie Baillie said of Ms Badenoch: 'The suggestion that she is the only one who can address the concerns of Scots is like an arsonist claiming they are best placed to put out the fire.'
