Climate change threatens Gharial habitat as UP marks 50 yrs of project crocodile
Pilibhit: Climate change is emerging as a major threat to India's critically endangered gharial, even as Uttar Pradesh marks 50 years of Project Crocodile on Crocodile Day with the largest population of the species in the country.
The gharial (Gavialis gangeticus)—a fish-eating crocodilian with a slender snout—once thrived across 80,000 sq km of the Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Mahanadi River systems. Decimated by habitat loss, poaching, and fishing-net entanglements, the species now survives in just 14 fragmented river stretches across India and Nepal.
Although decades of conservation efforts—including the 1975 launch of Project Crocodile—spurred a modest recovery, the impending impacts of climate-driven habitat shifts demand a comprehensive strategy overhaul.
A new study by Indian and international researchers used species-distribution models to project gharial habitat suitability under future climate scenarios. The results are striking by 2080, suitable habitat could grow by 36%–145%, even under both moderate and extreme warming projections.
Uttar Pradesh emerges as the most promising region, poised to host the largest gharial population. Madhya Pradesh could become a new safe haven, with potential for over 31,000 sq km of suitable habitat.
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Assam, Uttarakhand, and Bihar also show encouraging trends, while eastern states like Manipur, Jharkhand, and Arunachal Pradesh—previously devoid of gharials—may soon offer refuge.
"This year marks 50 years since Project Crocodile began in UP," said Anuradha Vemuri, principal chief conservator of forests (Wildlife), Uttar Pradesh. "With around 270 adult gharials in the Chambal, Ghaghara, Gandak, and Ganga rivers—out of a national total of approximately 650—UP ranks first in the country, based on this year's census."
Conversely, Odisha is expected to lose all suitable gharial habitat under future climates, and Rajasthan may also see declines. UP itself may experience an initial dip in habitat suitability before eventual recovery.
The study highlights annual rainfall and precipitation seasonality as the key factors determining habitat viability—reflecting the species' need for exposed sandbanks during dry seasons for breeding and nesting.
Notably, the geographic centre of suitable habitat is shifting eastward, mirroring wider climate-driven changes in river systems.
"Habitat fragmentation is projected to increase—patches may rise by up to 96%—yet their overall aggregation remains stable," explained Dr Shailendra Singh, IUCN specialist group member involved in the research. "This offers some hope for connectivity and gene flow. Still, threats such as sand mining, pollution, and competition with the mugger crocodile persist.
Gharials typically avoid human interaction, so increasing overlap with human-used areas—and with muggers—may heighten risks for both species.
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The researchers recommend ground surveys in newly suitable zones, particularly the Brahmaputra and Mahanadi basins, prior to any reintroduction. They also advocate for designating these areas as protected zones, enhancing ecological monitoring, and partnering with local communities through awareness initiatives and compensation programs.
"We've received the report and are reviewing it closely," added Anuradha Vemuri. "It will guide our next steps for gharial conservation and population growth in the state."
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