Why an asteroid on a collision course with Earth is actually good for humanity
A rock the size of a 30-story building is hurtling towards Earth. Travelling 20 times faster than a bullet, Asteroid 2024 YR4 has a 2.3 per cent chance of hitting us in 2032, roughly the same probability as rolling double sixes on a pair of dice.
These newly revised odds make it the biggest extra-terrestrial threat to our planet since 2004, when astronomers discovered an asteroid that had a 2.7 per cent chance of colliding with us. That space rock eventually proved harmless, but if we're lucky, this newly-discovered one will be on a direct collision course with Earth.
This is not a wish for an apocalypse or a craving for mass destruction. (The potential impact of Asteroid 2024 YR4 would be catastrophic: if it crashed into a densely populated city like Lagos or Kolkata – which are both on its estimated flight path – then tens of millions of people might die or be displaced.)
It is instead a hope that humanity will be able to show just how far we've come as a species, giving an opportunity to demonstrate that we can now determine our own fate – and alter the course of the universe. Because while the asteroid's exact trajectory remains uncertain, our chances of dealing with it are already known; as Nasa's DART mission in 2022 proved, we have the technology to deflect it.
The Double Asteroid Redirection Test saw a spacecraft intentionally collide with an asteroid twice the size of Asteroid 2024 YR4. This first-of-its-kind attempt altered the orbital path of Asteroid Didymos, with the mission proving so successful that even the live stream didn't fail.
It was not just a technological triumph, Nasa described the ability to see off asteroids as "a new era of humankind", showing that it is possible to go from warring tribes to a civilisation capable of planet-wide cooperation.
'We have the capability to protect ourselves from something like a dangerous, hazardous asteroid impact," the US space agency said following the mission. "What an amazing thing.'
There is nothing like a planetary threat to bring the world together. Ranking as a three on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, Asteroid 2024 YR4 has triggered global planetary defence procedures for the first time. Two UN-endorsed response groups – the International Asteroid Warning Network and the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group – are already working to narrow down its trajectory and prepare any necessary intervention.
With efforts stretching from the European Space Agency to China's defence agency are already proving, it has become a moment to share resources and knowledge, and take collective action against an existential threat. And if it can be achieved with an asteroid, then similar levels of cooperation and organisation could potentially be extended to global challenges like climate change and the emergence of superhuman AI.
This may not be true for all asteroids. The early discovery of Asteroid 2024 R4 gives us seven years to prepare for its approach – something that may not be the case for others. As astrophysicist and YouTuber Scott Manley noted last week, the current impact risk of this asteroid is still lower than the odds of a similar-sized undiscovered object hitting Earth before then.
But for this one, at least, we have the chance to come together – for the first time in history – to prevent a cosmic calamity.
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