Latest news with #Asteroid2024YR4
UPI
2 days ago
- Science
- UPI
NASA raises chance for asteroid to hit the moon
An artist's illustration of the James Webb Space in space. According to new data, NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies at the agency's Jet Propulsion Laboratory has increased the likelihood that an object called Asteroid 2024 YR4 will strike the Moon in 2032. NASA Photo/UPI | License Photo June 19 (UPI) -- NASA has announced that an asteroid about 200 feet in diameter is now slightly more likely to crash into the moon. According to the newest data collected, NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies at the agency's Jet Propulsion Laboratory has refined the expected course for Asteroid 2024 YR4 and has given it an increased 4.3% probability of striking the moon on Dec. 22, 2032. The original likelihood was at 3.8% probability. The space rock is too far off in space to be detected with ground telescopes, but the James Webb Space Telescope, which orbits the sun, was able to take a new look at the space rock earlier this month before it was obscured from view. It was that opportunity that provided the data that led to the changed forecast. Due to YR4's solar orbit, NASA won't be able to view it again until it comes back around the sun in 2028. According to a research paper submitted to the American Astronomical Society journals and published Monday, should the asteroid hit the moon, it could cause a crater as large as around 3,200 feet and release 6.5 megatons of energy. As much as 220 million pounds of lunar material could be released by such an impact, and then as much as 10% of that ejecta could fall to Earth a few days later, so "meteorites are unlikely, though not impossible" according to the paper, but it would create an "eye-catching" meteor shower. However, any moon bits that do come toward the Earth also could increase the meteoroid impact exposure faced by satellites in near-Earth orbit for as long as a decade.
The Hill
25-02-2025
- Science
- The Hill
Asteroid that sparked concerns no longer poses threat: NASA
An asteroid that sparked concerns about potentially hitting Earth no longer poses a significant threat of slamming into our planet, according to NASA's latest analysis. The asteroid, Asteroid 2024 YR4, which was first spotted in late 2024, now has a 0.004 percent chance of hitting our planet and is 'expected to safely pass by Earth in 2032,' NASA said in the newest update that was published on Monday. The 2024 YR4, first detected by telescopes on Dec. 27 last year, previously had a 'very small, but notable chance' of ramming into Earth in 2032. With further observations, experts at NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory's (JPL) Center for Near-Earth Object Studies determined 'more precise models' of the asteroid's trajectory show 'there is no significant potential for this asteroid to impact our planet for the next century.' 'The latest observations have further reduced the uncertainty of its future trajectory, and the range of possible locations the asteroid could be on Dec. 22, 2032, has moved farther away from the Earth,' NASA said. While Earth might not be in harm's way, our moon is not entirely in the clear, according to NASA. The space agency said there is currently a 1.7 percent chance the asteroid could 'impact' the Moon on Dec. 22, 2032. NASA's James Webb Space Telescope will continue to examine the asteroid in March 'to further gain insights about its size for scientific purposes.' The space agency added that despite the asteroid no longer being a 'significant impact hazard' to planet Earth, it was an 'invaluable opportunity for experts at NASA and its partner institutions to test planetary defense science and notification processes.'
Yahoo
24-02-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Earth in the clear from Asteroid 2024 YR4 strike in 2032 after impact chances drop to nearly zero
Earthlings can keep their plans seven years from now after scientists have officially declared Asteroid 2024 YR4 is not a threat to our planet. Asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered on Dec. 27 by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescope in Río Hurtado, Chile. Since its discovery, the asteroid gained global attention, jumping to a 3-out-of-10 threat on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale. According to Nasa's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, Asteroid 2024 YR4 has fallen off the Torino scale after recent observations. The impact probability dropped to 0.0017% or 1-in-59,000 odds of an impact in December 2032. At the highest threat, the asteroid only had about a 3% chance of hitting Earth, which was the highest impact probability NASA has ever recorded for an object of this size. The last record holder was Asteroid Apophis in 2004, which briefly had a 2.7% chance of impact. Since its discovery, Asteroid 2024 YR4 has warranted international attention, and large telescopes around the world continue to track the space rock before it fades out of view behind the Sun this spring. According to the International Astronomical Union's Minor Planet Center website, more than 400 observations have been recorded since late December. Each new observation was added to orbit calculations to determine the impact probability, eventually dropping it to near zero. Scientists are still determining the asteroid's size, but it's believed to be between 100 and 300 feet wide. According to NASA, an asteroid of this size could cause regional damage. The space agency said if a small 130- to 200-foot asteroid entered Earth's atmosphere over a populated area, an airburst could shatter windows or cause structural damage across a city. A larger asteroid over 300 feet could cause more severe damage, even collapsing homes across a town and shattering windows across a larger radius. In March, NASA's James Webb Space Telescope will complete thermal imaging of 2024 YR4 which should help determine its size. After April, Asteroid 2024 YR4 will be too faint for Earth-based telescopes to see and will not be visible again until 2028. Editor's note: The headline of this story has been updated to reflect that the chance has not dropped below article source: Earth in the clear from Asteroid 2024 YR4 strike in 2032 after impact chances drop to nearly zero
Yahoo
24-02-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Opinion - What we know and don't know about the asteroid hurtling toward Earth
Let's get the first question out of the way quickly. Asteroid 2024 YR4, a 50- to 90-meter-wide Earth-approaching object, is likely not going to hit our planet in 2032. But, since the odds of it increased to 3.1 percent and then fell back to 1.5 percent, the media has suddenly taken notice. No doubt, the odds will fluctuate over the next several years. The good news is that if Earth is incredibly unlucky and the asteroid does hit on Dec. 22, 2032, it will not destroy the world. However, if it impacts the Earth, the asteroid will create a good-sized crater and kill anyone unlucky enough to be in the vicinity of the impact zone. The explosive force would be the equivalent of a very large nuclear bomb. The asteroid could be like the one that exploded over Siberia in 1908, burning 80 million trees in an 830 square-mile area. In either scenario, an air burst or a direct impact, 2024 YR4 could lay a good-sized city to waste if it were unlucky enough to be in the crosshairs. An impact could be a world-changing calamity. But it would not likely destroy most life on Earth, like the asteroid that ended the age of the dinosaurs 66 million years ago. That rock measured 10 to 15 kilometers in diameter. A few years ago, NASA, along with a group of local and state officials, war-gamed the effects of a 70-meter-wide asteroid exploding eight miles above the city of Winston-Salem, North Carolina. The exercise concluded that the city would be destroyed as if it had been hit by a nuclear bomb, with deaths in the thousands. The calamity would be exacerbated because a significant number of people, distrustful of authority, would ignore orders to evacuate. NASA also conducted an asteroid deflection test when it smashed the Double Asteroid Redirection Test into the asteroid Dimorphos, which orbited a larger object called Didymos. The mission succeeded in changing the orbit of Dimorphos around Didymos by 33 minutes, proving the concept of asteroid deflection. Could a similar mission deflect Asteroid 2024 YR4 should it prove necessary? Is there another alternative to ward off the asteroid? Robin George Andrews, a British scientist and journalist, suggests that there may not be enough time to mount a mission to deflect Asteroid 2024 YR4. He estimates that it would take ten years to execute with any assurance of success. Andrews posted the problem of a deflection mission on X. 'That means that if we try to deflect 2024 YR4 with *just four years to go* — in 2028, when it's close to Earth again — then that deflection would need to be VERY strong. We'd either need a bigger … impactor, or a maybe a nuclear explosive device.' On the other hand, the U.S. may have another means of warding off 2024 YR4 — namely, President Trump's revival of the Strategic Defense Initiative, which he dubs 'Iron Dome for America.' It will be a multi-layered defense system designed to ward off a nuclear attack by an enemy power such as Russia or China. It will have a space-based component and will likely include laser weapons. notes that the concept involves firing a laser at the surface of an oncoming asteroid. The laser vaporizes part of the object, creating a jet of plasma that acts to change its velocity, thus deflecting it from a collision course with Earth. It is possible that a laser weapon designed to destroy a nuclear-armed missile could also be used to deflect asteroids and other objects that threaten Earth. NASA or perhaps the Space Force should build a prototype and put it to the test, as an alternative to the impact method of asteroid deflection. As far as 2024 YR4 is concerned, it is very likely that 'all of the above' is an academic exercise. A 3.1 or 1.5 percent probability of a disaster is still quite small. December 22, 2032, will probably just be another day for people on the planet Earth. On the other hand, quotes David Rankin, an operations engineer for the University of Arizona's Catalina Sky Survey, who has noted that there is a 0.3 percent possibility that 2024 YR4 will hit the Earth's moon. That event would not affect anyone on Earth, but it might prove to be a hard day for anyone living and working at a lunar base as envisioned by Artemis, depending on where the object hits. Still, a way must be developed to deflect threatening asteroids on demand and not as a long-term, one-off engineering project. Mark R. Whittington is the author of 'Why is It So Hard to Go Back to the Moon?' as well as 'The Moon, Mars and Beyond,' and, most recently, 'Why is America Going Back to the Moon?' He blogs at Curmudgeons Corner. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
The Hill
23-02-2025
- Science
- The Hill
What we know and don't know about the asteroid hurtling toward Earth
Let's get the first question out of the way quickly. Asteroid 2024 YR4, a 50- to 90-meter-wide Earth-approaching object, is likely not going to hit our planet in 2032. But, since the odds of it increased to 3.1 percent and then fell back to 1.5 percent, the media has suddenly taken notice. No doubt, the odds will fluctuate over the next several years. The good news is that if Earth is incredibly unlucky and the asteroid does hit on Dec. 22, 2032, it will not destroy the world. However, if it impacts the Earth, the asteroid will create a good-sized crater and kill anyone unlucky enough to be in the vicinity of the impact zone. The explosive force would be the equivalent of a very large nuclear bomb. The asteroid could be like the one that exploded over Siberia in 1908, burning 80 million trees in an 830 square-mile area. In either scenario, an air burst or a direct impact, 2024 YR4 could lay a good-sized city to waste if it were unlucky enough to be in the crosshairs. An impact could be a world-changing calamity. But it would not likely destroy most life on Earth, like the asteroid that ended the age of the dinosaurs 66 million years ago. That rock measured 10 to 15 kilometers in diameter. A few years ago, NASA, along with a group of local and state officials, war-gamed the effects of a 70-meter-wide asteroid exploding eight miles above the city of Winston-Salem, North Carolina. The exercise concluded that the city would be destroyed as if it had been hit by a nuclear bomb, with deaths in the thousands. The calamity would be exacerbated because a significant number of people, distrustful of authority, would ignore orders to evacuate. NASA also conducted an asteroid deflection test when it smashed the Double Asteroid Redirection Test into the asteroid Dimorphos, which orbited a larger object called Didymos. The mission succeeded in changing the orbit of Dimorphos around Didymos by 33 minutes, proving the concept of asteroid deflection. Could a similar mission deflect Asteroid 2024 YR4 should it prove necessary? Is there another alternative to ward off the asteroid? Robin George Andrews, a British scientist and journalist, suggests that there may not be enough time to mount a mission to deflect Asteroid 2024 YR4. He estimates that it would take ten years to execute with any assurance of success. Andrews posted the problem of a deflection mission on X. 'That means that if we try to deflect 2024 YR4 with *just four years to go* — in 2028, when it's close to Earth again — then that deflection would need to be VERY strong. We'd either need a bigger … impactor, or a maybe a nuclear explosive device.' On the other hand, the U.S. may have another means of warding off 2024 YR4 — namely, President Trump's revival of the Strategic Defense Initiative, which he dubs ' Iron Dome for America.' It will be a multi-layered defense system designed to ward off a nuclear attack by an enemy power such as Russia or China. It will have a space-based component and will likely include laser weapons. notes that the concept involves firing a laser at the surface of an oncoming asteroid. The laser vaporizes part of the object, creating a jet of plasma that acts to change its velocity, thus deflecting it from a collision course with Earth. It is possible that a laser weapon designed to destroy a nuclear-armed missile could also be used to deflect asteroids and other objects that threaten Earth. NASA or perhaps the Space Force should build a prototype and put it to the test, as an alternative to the impact method of asteroid deflection. As far as 2024 YR4 is concerned, it is very likely that 'all of the above' is an academic exercise. A 3.1 or 1.5 percent probability of a disaster is still quite small. December 22, 2032, will probably just be another day for people on the planet Earth. On the other hand, quotes David Rankin, an operations engineer for the University of Arizona's Catalina Sky Survey, who has noted that there is a 0.3 percent possibility that 2024 YR4 will hit the Earth's moon. That event would not affect anyone on Earth, but it might prove to be a hard day for anyone living and working at a lunar base as envisioned by Artemis, depending on where the object hits. Still, a way must be developed to deflect threatening asteroids on demand and not as a long-term, one-off engineering project.
