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The Independent
13-02-2025
- Science
- The Independent
Why an asteroid on a collision course with Earth is actually good for humanity
A rock the size of a 30-story building is hurtling towards Earth. Travelling 20 times faster than a bullet, Asteroid 2024 YR4 has a 2.3 per cent chance of hitting us in 2032, roughly the same probability as rolling double sixes on a pair of dice. These newly revised odds make it the biggest extra-terrestrial threat to our planet since 2004, when astronomers discovered an asteroid that had a 2.7 per cent chance of colliding with us. That space rock eventually proved harmless, but if we're lucky, this newly-discovered one will be on a direct collision course with Earth. This is not a wish for an apocalypse or a craving for mass destruction. (The potential impact of Asteroid 2024 YR4 would be catastrophic: if it crashed into a densely populated city like Lagos or Kolkata – which are both on its estimated flight path – then tens of millions of people might die or be displaced.) It is instead a hope that humanity will be able to show just how far we've come as a species, giving an opportunity to demonstrate that we can now determine our own fate – and alter the course of the universe. Because while the asteroid's exact trajectory remains uncertain, our chances of dealing with it are already known; as Nasa's DART mission in 2022 proved, we have the technology to deflect it. The Double Asteroid Redirection Test saw a spacecraft intentionally collide with an asteroid twice the size of Asteroid 2024 YR4. This first-of-its-kind attempt altered the orbital path of Asteroid Didymos, with the mission proving so successful that even the live stream didn't fail. It was not just a technological triumph, Nasa described the ability to see off asteroids as "a new era of humankind", showing that it is possible to go from warring tribes to a civilisation capable of planet-wide cooperation. 'We have the capability to protect ourselves from something like a dangerous, hazardous asteroid impact," the US space agency said following the mission. "What an amazing thing.' There is nothing like a planetary threat to bring the world together. Ranking as a three on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, Asteroid 2024 YR4 has triggered global planetary defence procedures for the first time. Two UN-endorsed response groups – the International Asteroid Warning Network and the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group – are already working to narrow down its trajectory and prepare any necessary intervention. With efforts stretching from the European Space Agency to China's defence agency are already proving, it has become a moment to share resources and knowledge, and take collective action against an existential threat. And if it can be achieved with an asteroid, then similar levels of cooperation and organisation could potentially be extended to global challenges like climate change and the emergence of superhuman AI. This may not be true for all asteroids. The early discovery of Asteroid 2024 R4 gives us seven years to prepare for its approach – something that may not be the case for others. As astrophysicist and YouTuber Scott Manley noted last week, the current impact risk of this asteroid is still lower than the odds of a similar-sized undiscovered object hitting Earth before then. But for this one, at least, we have the chance to come together – for the first time in history – to prevent a cosmic calamity.
Yahoo
13-02-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Could an asteroid strike Earth? NASA is tracking asteroid that is closing in on our planet
Could an asteroid really strike our planet? In what seems to be the backstory of a doomsday science fiction flick, NASA is tracking an asteroid that has a non-zero chance of striking Earth. Here's what we know about Asteroid 2024 YR4, and when it could possibly hit our planet. The asteroid, according to NASA, is roughly 130 to 300 feet wide, and has a very small chance of impacting Earth on Wednesday, December 22, 2032. NASA notes that an impact from Asteroid 2024 YR4 could be damaging, and that it poses threats to domestic and international security. "It is large enough to cause localized damage in the unlikely event that it should impact Earth," read NASA's Asteroid 2024 YR4 website. "And while 2024 YR4 has a very small chance of Earth impact in 2032, it has surpassed the 1% impact probability threshold to warrant formal notification of the object to other U.S. government agencies involved in planetary defense as well as to the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group." While NASA didn't specify how damaging a theoretical Asteroid 2024 YR4 strike could be, global published reports are painting a harrowing picture of what an impact could look like. Although it won't come close to causing the total destruction of all life on Earth, one report estimates Asteroid 2024 YR4 could have an impact radius of 4.54 miles, instantly killing humans, animals and vegetation caught in the radius and miles beyond. Others labeled Asteroid 2024 YR4 as the most dangerous asteroid in the last 20 years. You probably don't need to worry about setting up any underground shelters to avoid Asteroid 2024 YR4 fallout, however. scientists believe the chances of Asteroid 2024 YR4 actually striking our planet will decrease greatly in the coming years. Damon C. Williams is a Philadelphia-based journalist reporting on trending topics across the Mid-Atlantic Region. This article originally appeared on Erie Times-News: NASA is tracking an asteroid; could it strike our planet?
Yahoo
30-01-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Agencies plan for near-Earth asteroid's close encounter in 2032
A recently discovered, sizable asteroid may come within striking distance of Earth in less than eight years. But although the rock is potentially even larger than the one believed responsible for the historic Tunguska event in 1908, the odds are currently in humanity's favor. On December 27, 2024, the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescope in Rio Hurtado, Chile, detected a hunk of space rock approximately 828,800 kilometers (515,000 miles) from Earth. Astronomers confirmed the object as a near-Earth asteroid, and catalogued it as 2024 YR4. But additional calculations soon raised red flags—its estimated 130-328 feet diameter and potential orbital path meant that, for the first time ever, an asteroid met the requirements to trigger the two UN-endorsed global planetary defense groups, the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) and the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG). Once initiated, the organizations leverage every available research telescope around the world to train their lenses on the object and gather as much data as possible. 2024 YR4 is now speeding away from Earth, but astronomers gleaned enough information to estimate when it might return. Based on the available calculations, the asteroid will again near the planet on December 22nd, 2032. And when it does, there's an approximately 1.3 percent chance it will hit us. 'Asteroid 2024 YR4 has an almost 99 percent chance of safely passing Earth on 22 December 2032,' the European Space Agency said in its announcement on January 29, while still cautioning that 'a possible impact cannot yet be entirely ruled out.' Any percentage indicating an asteroid strike might cause some people to worry, but as it stands, the odds remain incredibly slim. Putting it another way might offer further assurance against space-induced catastrophe: While 2024 YR 4 currently checks all the boxes for Level 3 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, the asteroid warning system's definition makes it clear that such objects will 'most likely' be reclassified down to 0 pending additional telescopic observations. Astronomers may only have a limited window to gather more information, however. The ESA noted on Wednesday that 2024 YR4's elongated path around the Sun currently has it moving away from Earth in nearly a straight line, making it hard to learn its orbit. Experts likely have a few months before the asteroid begins fading from view. Until then, international agencies will continue coordinating their telescopes to observe 2024 YR4. This includes employing the European Southern Observatory's Very Large Telescope in Chile. Astronomers also estimate the asteroid will become observable once again in 2028, allowing for further analysis. While 2024 YR4 appears unlikely to hit Earth, such events do happen every few thousand years. When they do, the damage is impressive. The Tunguska event, for example, is believed to have occurred after a roughly 130-feet-wide asteroid exploded over Siberia in 1908. Over 800-square-miles of forest was flattened by the resulting force, or over twice the area of New York City. If 2024 YR4 ends up topping out at astronomers' maxiumum 328-feet-wide estimate, the fallout could be even worse. Available information doesn't narrow down a potential strike zone much, but that will also likely change as more data is collected. Regardless, based on what the experts already know, there's no real reason to start digging your asteroid bunker. And if those predictions are revised for the worse, there's already plenty of agencies readying plans to knock problematic space rocks out of Earth's path.
