Scouting the Final Four: Who do coaches say has the edge? UConn or UCLA?
Scouting the Final Four: Who do coaches say has the edge? UConn or UCLA?
TAMPA, Fla. — The best two players left in March Madness are competing in Friday's second game of the Final Four: UCLA has 6-foot-7 center Lauren Betts, and UConn has sensation Paige Bueckers. Through the first four rounds of the NCAA Tournament, neither has faced a one-on-one matchup that has truly stopped them.
Led by UCLA's Cori Close, coaching in her first Final Four, and UConn's Geno Auriemma, coaching in his 24th, these teams are very different. Which is why enlisted the help of coaches who saw them firsthand.
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As the Bruins and Huskies gear up for a game that could go either way, multiple coaches who coached against them this season weighed in. They were granted anonymity so they could speak with candor.
Scouting UCLA
Strengths: Betts, depth in scoring options, physicality
It all starts with Betts, who averages 20 points and 9.6 rebounds per game and has gone for at least 30 points in two of her last three games. Even on an 'off' night when she got into foul trouble and sat out for much of the second quarter against LSU in the Elite Eight, she still finished with 17 points, seven rebounds and six blocks, including two in the first 10 seconds of the game. Just this week, she was named the Naismith Defensive Player of the Year.
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'Obviously, Lauren Betts' efficiency, her ability to affect both sides of the floor, nobody else has that,' one coach said. 'That is the difference-maker.'
'Usually when you see 6-foot-7, there's only so much you can do defensively to stop her,' said another coach. 'She really is capable of moving laterally, guarding one-on-one and guarding off-the-ball screens better than most 6-foot-2 posts.'
That's not to say Betts is UCLA's only hope, though. One of her greatest qualities, one coach said, is her willingness as a passer. With guards who aren't afraid to shoot, UCLA can challenge teams inside and out. Junior guard Gabriela Jaquez had 18 points against the Tigers and went 4-of-5 shooting from beyond the arc. Junior forward Timea Gardiner had 15, knocking down 5-of-8 3-pointers.
'The thing that makes them so very, very difficult to beat is they just have great length and size,' one coach said. 'And with that great length and size, they could all shoot the basketball.'
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The Bruins are also physical, one coach said, which could work in their favor depending on how the game is called.
'Nobody wants to talk about this, but that's where officiating comes into play,' the coach said. 'What's going to be allowed? What's not going to be allowed? If the game is allowed to be physical, the advantage is gonna be UCLA.'
Weaknesses: Outside shooting
UCLA doesn't attempt many 3s. The Bruins' 21.1 attempts from beyond the arc rank No. 117 nationally. Jaquez and Gardiner were dominant against the Tigers, which could be a good sign for UCLA. But that's not the norm for the Bruins, whose 33.7 3-point percentage ranks 78th nationally. UConn, by comparison, is a top-10 team from deep, knocking down 38.3 percent.
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'If they play as good as they can play, then they win the national championship,' one coach said of the Bruins. 'But I think with their outside shooting, if Londynn (Jones) and Timea and Kiki (Rice) are all off, they can lose.'
Gardiner is UCLA's top 3-point shooter with a near-40 percent clip. Rice, Jaquez and forward Angela Dugalić all hover around the 36 percent mark, while Jones comes in at 35.3 percent.
'If you can make life somewhat difficult for Betts, and then some of those pieces on the outside are having a really tough shooting night,' one coach said, 'you have a chance.'
X-factors: Kiki Rice, Janiah Barker
Rice, a junior point guard, averages 12.9 points and 5.1 assists, but she may need to step it up against the Huskies, according to one coach.
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'I think that the X-factor for them is Rice. But I don't think Rice has played as well this year as she did last year, and they need her to play well,' the coach said. 'She's a leader and she's a slasher, she drives, she makes things happen. She's the one player with that skill set on that team. … She's got to have a good game.'
Another coach pointed to the array of UCLA's players who average between 8 and 13 points but have had massive recent performances. Rice (23 points against Richmond), Jaquez (18 points against LSU), Jones (22 points against Ohio State in the Big Ten tournament) and Gardiner (five 3-pointers against LSU) have stepped up, but the coach was most impressed with what 6-4 forward Janiah Barker brings off the bench. Barker, the Texas A&M transfer who made the SEC All-Freshman team two years ago, is now a junior and gives UCLA another scoring option, averaging 7.5 points in 17.4 minutes per game.
'OK, let's say those guys don't play good and you put Barker in. I mean, god damn, she's really f—ing good. Like really f—ing good,' the coach said.
The coach wasn't alone in that assessment.
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'Barker just gives you a whole different element because of her athleticism. And coming off the bench? It makes it incredibly difficult. She can't shoot it. She's not a kid that we were going to go out and guard, but around the rim, she's really good. Super athletic,' one said. 'To bring Barker off the bench is insane. Yeah, first-team All-SEC — that's a huge benefit when you get into the postseason, whether you get in foul trouble or you're just looking for a spark.'
Scouting UConn
Strengths: Bueckers, strategy, experience, efficiency
Is there anyone who rises to the moment quite like Bueckers? The Huskies star guard has 105 points in her past three games, including a career-high 40 against Oklahoma in the Sweet 16. She's the only Auriemma star without a national title and is playing like someone who has every intention of changing that.
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But as one coach pointed out, Bueckers has plenty of help around her — a welcome sight for a UConn team that is finally healthy this NCAA Tournament.
'I think everyone on their team has to be able to shoot the ball well. You saw that in the USC game. When they do, they're great,' the coach said. 'They provide so much space that you have to be one-on-one or you have to pick your poison.'
The Huskies shot 45 percent from the field in the Elite Eight against USC and 45.5 percent from 3.
UConn also boasts a dominant defense, ranking first nationally for scoring defense (52 points per game) and fourth nationally for opponent field goal percentage (34.6). The Huskies aren't as strong at defending the 3, with opponents shooting 28.9 percent from deep. But defending Betts will be the priority anyway. Auriemma, who has been on this stage more than anyone, will no doubt have a plan.
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'They're really smart in terms of how they scout and what they do, and so they will play percentages,' a coach said. 'They will pack the paint in other ways and not just have one-on-one coverage against her. So, I think that will be really interesting for them, too.
'They're going to expose your disadvantage.'
That scouting allows the Huskies to be extremely efficient. They lead the nation in points per play (1.03) and don't turn the ball over. UConn's 13.6 percent turnover percentage ranks fourth nationally and best among the teams still playing. When you don't turn the ball over and you capitalize on your offensive possessions, you can play steady in a way that wears down opponents.
'It's a game of runs for the rest of us. And for them, they just stay steady,' said one coach. 'And when you're not in your run, they capitalize.'
Weaknesses: Lack of regular-season strength of schedule, streaky outside shooting
The Huskies ended up with a No. 2 seed largely because they simply didn't have the same strength of schedule as other No. 1 seeds. The Big East got two bids out of their conference while the Big Ten got 12.
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'The one thing that is also unique and different is that they've probably been trying to manage the lack of competition in their conference,' said one coach.
Without that night-in and night-out competition, UConn hasn't been tested as much or as regularly as other teams despite playing an incredibly difficult nonconference schedule. UCLA plays in a much stronger and deeper conference. This three-game stretch against Oklahoma, USC and UCLA is by far the toughest the Huskies have faced this season.
UCLA has the advantage in the paint with Betts, but one way the Huskies can counteract that is in trading 3-pointers for 2s. But one coach pointed out that UConn's best shooters are coming into this matchup on a cold streak.
Against USC in the Elite Eight, Azzi Fudd finished with just eight points on 3-of-14 shooting while Ashlynn Shade wasn't even able to get a single field goal attempt off in 13 minutes. Though multiple coaches have sung the praises of Sarah Strong this season, one coach said that for Strong to be as good as she can, UConn needs its outside shooters to step up and create space for her to work.
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'Azzi Fudd has to shoot the ball well. Ashlynn Shade has to shoot the ball well to allow Sarah Strong to really play her game,' the coach said.
X-factor: Strong
Speaking of Strong, the freshman forward was dominant against USC, scoring 22 points and grabbing 17 rebounds.
'She's a playmaker,' one coach said.
Auriemma said the Huskies put in a handful of new plays specifically for Strong against USC, knowing the Trojans would try to take away Bueckers early. Strong hit two early 3s and had 15 points by halftime.
'She's the difference-maker for them even more so than Paige,' the coach said, 'even though Paige is elite.'
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This article originally appeared in The Athletic.
UCLA Bruins, Connecticut Huskies, Women's College Basketball, Women's NCAA Tournament
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