Consumer Rebound Boosts Outlook for Discretionary ETFs
Americans have started to feel optimistic about the economy, as the initial shock from steep tariffs begins to wear off and inflation pressures ease. Rising consumer sentiment bodes well for household spending in the coming months. It is expected to have a positive impact on the consumer discretionary sector, which attracts a major portion of consumer spending. Investors can tap the encouraging trend in the basket form through consumer discretionary ETFs like Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund XLY, Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF VCR and iShares U.S. Consumer Services ETF IYC. These funds have a Zacks ETF Rank #3 (Hold).U.S. consumer sentiment climbed in June for the first time in six months, offering a glimmer of optimism amid lingering policy uncertainty. According to preliminary data from the University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers, the Consumer Sentiment Index jumped to 60.5, up from 52.2 in May and well above economists' expectations of 53.6. The rebound follows one of the lowest sentiment readings on record in May.
Short and long-term inflation forecasts softened notably. One-year inflation expectations dropped significantly to 5.1% in June, down from 6.6% in May—a level not seen in over four decades. Expectations for inflation over the next five to 10 years also edged down slightly to 4.1% from 4.2% the previous month (read: Sector ETFs Set to Gain as Inflation Cools in May).
The surge in confidence followed the Trump administration's decision to delay new tariffs in April and reach a temporary truce with China in May. As Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu remarked, 'Consumers appear to have settled somewhat from the shock of the extremely high tariffs announced in April and the policy volatility seen in the weeks that followed.'These shifts suggest consumers are regaining some confidence as economic conditions stabilize and uncertainty around trade policy begins to diminish.
The data aligns with the other survey report released late last month. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index rose sharply in May to 98, well above April's 85.7 reading and comfortably ahead of the 87.1 economists had forecast. Its expectations index, which gauges the outlook for income, business, and labor conditions over the next six months, surged to 72.8 in May from a 13-year low of 55.4 in April — the strongest monthly jump since May 2009.
Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY) Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund offers exposure to the broad consumer discretionary space and tracks the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector Index. It holds 51 securities in its basket, with key holdings in hotels, restaurants and leisure, broadline retail, specialty retail, and automobiles with a double-digit allocation each (read: Consumer Discretionary ETFs Set for a Comeback?).Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund is the largest and most popular product in this space, with AUM of $21.7 billion and an average daily volume of around 4 million shares. It charges 0.08% in expense ratio.Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF (VCR) Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF follows the MSCI U.S. Investable Market Consumer Discretionary 25/50 Index and holds 296 stocks in its basket. In terms of industrial exposure, broadline retail, automobile manufacturers and restaurants occupy the top three spots. Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF is the low-cost choice in the space, charging investors only 9 bps in annual fees while volume is good at nearly 77,000 shares a day. The fund has managed $6 billion in its asset base so far.iShares U.S. Consumer Services ETF (IYC)iShares U.S. Consumer Discretionary ETF offers exposure to U.S. companies that distribute food, drugs, general retail items and media by tracking the Russell 1000 Consumer Disc 40 Act 15/22.5 Daily Capped Index. It holds 174 stocks in its basket, with key holdings in consumer discretionary, consumer services, media & entertainment, and autos & components.iShares U.S. Consumer Discretionary ETF has amassed $1.5 billion in its asset base and trades in a moderate volume of 86,000 shares a day on average. It charges 39 bps in annual fees from investors.
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Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY): ETF Research Reports
Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF (VCR): ETF Research Reports
iShares U.S. Consumer Discretionary ETF (IYC): ETF Research Reports
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