It's crucial that Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars avoided sacks this year
Pressure causes sacks. Shocking statement, I know. But, what if I told you that sacks as a statistic are far more indicative of quarterback play rather than the offensive line.
Let's take a look at sacks in the NFL and just what they mean to an offense. Sacks are a death sentence for offensive drives in the NFL. Since 2020, score rates drop from 41.2% on drives without a sack to just 23.3% on drives with at least one sack according to TruMedia.
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The difference in points scored on those drives is even more drastic. On drives without a sack, teams scored an average of 2.26 points per drive compared to a mere 1.03 points per drive on those with at least one.
A single sack on any given drive cuts a team's average points per drive by more than 50%. It's for this reason why offensive line play and thus a quarterback's ability to avoid sacks are so important.
Everyone talks about how important pass-protection is, but not enough conversation is had regarding a quarterback's ability to avoid sacks. It might be the single-most underrated talent in the NFL today.
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An easy way to justify sacks being a quarterback stat rather than that of the offensive line is looking at the least sacked quarterbacks in NFL history by percentage.
It's by no coincidence that Dan Marino, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, and Patrick Mahomes all find themselves within the top-ten. Avoiding sacks isn't just about escaping and making plays off script, it's also about knowing where to go with the ball when in the face of pressure.
It's actually a fairly reliable way to evaluate quarterback talent. The active leaders in sack rate are Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Jared Goff, Tua Tagovailoa, Trevor Lawrence and Justin Herbert. Sack rate on pressured drop backs, however, is an even better indicator of a quarterback's ability to avoid sacks as it normalizes pressure rate differences between teams.
For instance, due to the Jaguars' and Dolphins' extremely quick time to throw, it naturally reduces the chances of pressures occurring and therefore sacks as well. That's partially why Trevor Lawrence and Tua Tagovailoa's sack rates are so low. When looking at pressure to sack rates, none have been better than Mahomes and Allen.
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Mahomes led in 2022 and was second in 2023. Allen led in 2023 and was second in 2024. For context, Mahomes' career pressure to sack rate is 12.4% and Allen's is 12.9%. In regards to the Jaguars, Lawence has historically been pretty solid at avoiding sacks, all the way back to his college days.
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Pressure to sack rates have been a fairly transferable statistic from college to the NFL. Trevor Lawrence's 16.4% pressure to sack rate in the NFL is nearly identical to his 16.7% rate during his final season at Clemson. While most pressure to sack rates don't change much over the course of a player's career, Lawrence has sadly regressed each of the last three seasons despite his pass-protection improving. According to Pro Football Focus, Lawrence posted a career best 14.5% pressure to sack rate (6th) in 2021.
He then posted a 14.6% in 2022 (5th), 18.4% in 2023 (18th), and finally 20.0% in 2024 (17th). Each year, he's regressed in his ability to avoid sacks. It's hard to nail down the exact reason or reasons for this gradual decline. Lawrence's ability to create plays outside of the pocket has similarly declined over time.
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In 2022, Lawrence ranked fourth in EPA per play. That number dropped to just 31st in 2023, and then all the way to dead last (40th) this past season. In 2024, Lawrence completed just seven of his 29 pass attempts outside the pocket (24.1%) according to Fantasy Points. For reference, that ranked 39th among 39 qualifying quarterbacks and quite frankly it wasn't close.
Anthony Richardson, who was 38th, completed 40.4% of his attempts outside the pocket. Lawrence has shown that he's capable of being among the best in the NFL both at avoiding sacks and at producing outside of the pocket, however, that hasn't been the case the last couple of seasons.
The additions of a new staff, interior offensive line, as well as Travis Hunter and Dyami Brown should do wonders for Lawrence in 2025. The support staff is there and better than ever for Lawrence, It's time for him to right the ship and get the Jacksonville Jaguars back to the playoffs.
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