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Yahoo
a day ago
- Sport
- Yahoo
It's crucial that Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars avoided sacks this year
Pressure causes sacks. Shocking statement, I know. But, what if I told you that sacks as a statistic are far more indicative of quarterback play rather than the offensive line. Let's take a look at sacks in the NFL and just what they mean to an offense. Sacks are a death sentence for offensive drives in the NFL. Since 2020, score rates drop from 41.2% on drives without a sack to just 23.3% on drives with at least one sack according to TruMedia. Advertisement The difference in points scored on those drives is even more drastic. On drives without a sack, teams scored an average of 2.26 points per drive compared to a mere 1.03 points per drive on those with at least one. A single sack on any given drive cuts a team's average points per drive by more than 50%. It's for this reason why offensive line play and thus a quarterback's ability to avoid sacks are so important. Everyone talks about how important pass-protection is, but not enough conversation is had regarding a quarterback's ability to avoid sacks. It might be the single-most underrated talent in the NFL today. >>> STREAM ACTION SPORTS JAX 24/7 LIVE <<< Advertisement An easy way to justify sacks being a quarterback stat rather than that of the offensive line is looking at the least sacked quarterbacks in NFL history by percentage. It's by no coincidence that Dan Marino, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, and Patrick Mahomes all find themselves within the top-ten. Avoiding sacks isn't just about escaping and making plays off script, it's also about knowing where to go with the ball when in the face of pressure. It's actually a fairly reliable way to evaluate quarterback talent. The active leaders in sack rate are Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Jared Goff, Tua Tagovailoa, Trevor Lawrence and Justin Herbert. Sack rate on pressured drop backs, however, is an even better indicator of a quarterback's ability to avoid sacks as it normalizes pressure rate differences between teams. For instance, due to the Jaguars' and Dolphins' extremely quick time to throw, it naturally reduces the chances of pressures occurring and therefore sacks as well. That's partially why Trevor Lawrence and Tua Tagovailoa's sack rates are so low. When looking at pressure to sack rates, none have been better than Mahomes and Allen. Advertisement Mahomes led in 2022 and was second in 2023. Allen led in 2023 and was second in 2024. For context, Mahomes' career pressure to sack rate is 12.4% and Allen's is 12.9%. In regards to the Jaguars, Lawence has historically been pretty solid at avoiding sacks, all the way back to his college days. [DOWNLOAD: Free Action News Jax app for alerts as news breaks] Pressure to sack rates have been a fairly transferable statistic from college to the NFL. Trevor Lawrence's 16.4% pressure to sack rate in the NFL is nearly identical to his 16.7% rate during his final season at Clemson. While most pressure to sack rates don't change much over the course of a player's career, Lawrence has sadly regressed each of the last three seasons despite his pass-protection improving. According to Pro Football Focus, Lawrence posted a career best 14.5% pressure to sack rate (6th) in 2021. He then posted a 14.6% in 2022 (5th), 18.4% in 2023 (18th), and finally 20.0% in 2024 (17th). Each year, he's regressed in his ability to avoid sacks. It's hard to nail down the exact reason or reasons for this gradual decline. Lawrence's ability to create plays outside of the pocket has similarly declined over time. Advertisement In 2022, Lawrence ranked fourth in EPA per play. That number dropped to just 31st in 2023, and then all the way to dead last (40th) this past season. In 2024, Lawrence completed just seven of his 29 pass attempts outside the pocket (24.1%) according to Fantasy Points. For reference, that ranked 39th among 39 qualifying quarterbacks and quite frankly it wasn't close. Anthony Richardson, who was 38th, completed 40.4% of his attempts outside the pocket. Lawrence has shown that he's capable of being among the best in the NFL both at avoiding sacks and at producing outside of the pocket, however, that hasn't been the case the last couple of seasons. The additions of a new staff, interior offensive line, as well as Travis Hunter and Dyami Brown should do wonders for Lawrence in 2025. The support staff is there and better than ever for Lawrence, It's time for him to right the ship and get the Jacksonville Jaguars back to the playoffs. [SIGN UP: Action News Jax Daily Headlines Newsletter] Click here to download the free Action News Jax apps, click here to download the Action News Jax Now app for your smart TV and click here to stream Action Sports Jax 24/7 live.
New York Times
12-06-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Denver Broncos' Vance Joseph raising bar for top-ranked defense: ‘Let's start over again'
When the dust settled on Vance Joseph's second season as the defensive coordinator in Denver, the Broncos had set a record with 63 sacks. They finished first in defensive efficiency, according to TruMedia's expected points added metric. They boasted the NFL's defensive player of the year in cornerback Pat Surtain II and two other All-Pro selections in outside linebacker Nik Bonitto and defensive end Zach Allen. Advertisement However, the victory lap for Joseph and the Broncos' braintrust was brief — if it existed at all. A 31-7 loss to the Buffalo Bills in the first round of the playoffs shoved the Broncos back to the drawing board. 'We watched every clip from last year, and once you watch it all, you get a clear idea of how teams attacked you,' Joseph said Wednesday during his lone meeting with the media before training camp. 'It was obvious. I won't share that, but it was obvious how teams attacked us. You have to go to work to try to prevent some of that stuff. That's what you do in the offseason, and that's every year. You have to change and adjust.' Another day of minicamp in the 📚 — Denver Broncos (@Broncos) June 11, 2025 What followed was an offseason of major additions for an already talented defense. The Broncos signed a pair of former San Francisco 49ers standouts in safety Talanoa Hufanga and inside linebacker Dre Greenlaw. They then used their first-round pick on versatile defensive back Jahdae Barron, who was coached by Joseph's cousin, Terry Joseph, for three seasons at Texas. The additions provided a window into how the Broncos viewed their shortcomings last season defensively. Despite Surtain's lockdown brilliance, the Broncos had too many breakdowns in the secondary, particularly during late-season losses to the Los Angeles Chargers and Cincinnati Bengals. They struggled at times to cover running backs. Denver opponents produced a 122.1 passer rating when targeting the position last season. Only the New England Patriots and Tennessee Titans yielded a higher opponent rating. Hufanga and Greenlaw — physical, experienced players brought in to fortify the spine of the defense — are expected to help with those issues. But the addition of those players goes beyond the schematic adjustments the Broncos are trying to make. Joseph noted that Denver still has a relatively young defense. The playoff game in Buffalo was the first taste of the postseason for the bulk of Denver's defensive starters, and it showed. Hufanga and Greenlaw, meanwhile, have played in 17 combined playoff games. Greenlaw has played in two Super Bowls. Advertisement 'Both guys bring experience of being in big games and being on dominant defenses,' Joseph said. 'That's an attitude in practice and in meetings every day. You see it with those guys. Those guys love football. To add them to our mix has been tremendous. We're looking forward to the fall.' Greenlaw has not participated in the on-field portion of Denver's offseason program, which concludes Thursday with the final practice of mandatory minicamp. He suffered a quad injury while training on his own before the NFL Draft and is expected to be cleared for team activity by the time training camp begins. In the meantime, Greenlaw has been a constant presence on the sidelines at practices and in meetings. Hufanga, who intercepted Broncos quarterback Bo Nix at the end of last week's OTA practice attended by the media, has been part of a new soundtrack for Denver's defense. He has provided a vocal presence in the back end of the defense that has already been apparent. 'You are going to see how special they are,' said nose tackle D.J. Jones, who played with both players in San Francisco before signing with the Broncos in 2022. 'You're going to see why they brought them here.' First look at @TalanoaHufanga 👀 — Denver Broncos (@Broncos) May 29, 2025 The additions of Greenlaw, Hufanga and Barron, whom Joseph called a 'can't-miss prospect for us,' have helped create massive expectations for a defense that was one of the league's best last season. There is a certain microscope on a unit that is suddenly loaded with top-level talent. But head coach Sean Payton provided a reminder about the calendar on Tuesday. The Broncos, he said, 'have a chance to be a real good defense,' but this is a different group that is still in the building stages. Joseph has conveyed the same message. Advertisement 'We had a great defense. That was last year,' Joseph said. 'This year is totally different. My entire sell this entire offseason has been, 'Let's start over again. Let's keep improving.' Last year counts, but it doesn't matter moving forward. We have to continue to improve.' Here are some other takeaways from sessions with the Broncos coordinators and their newest player, running back JK Dobbins: Payton answered questions about Dobbins after a third straight practice. The running back officially signed a one-year deal with the Broncos after initially visiting the team's headquarters last week. On Wednesday, it was time to hear from the man himself about his decision to join the Broncos nearly four months after his free-agent process began. 'It felt amazing,' Dobbins said about his first day as a member of the Broncos, which mostly included work on a side field as he got acclimated to his new surroundings. 'It's a true blessing to me. I'm so happy to be here. We're going to do some great things this year.' Dobbins rushed for 905 yards and nine touchdowns during his lone season with the Los Angeles Chargers in 2024, a breakout that came after he missed all but nine games across the previous three seasons due to multiple significant injuries. The Chargers placed a seldom-used unrestricted free agent tender on Dobbins in April, which would have given them exclusive negotiating rights with Dobbins had he not joined a team by the start of training camp. That made for a unique free agency as Dobbins weighed his options before and after the draft, one Dobbins called 'stressful' at times. With a smile plastered to his face following his first Broncos practice, it was clear Dobbins was glad to have the process behind him. 'I'm a pretty patient person, and I was just feeling it out,' he said. '(I was) letting everything play out how it's supposed to be. It was a little stressful with some things that happened in there, but I knew I was going to get to where I needed to be. I am where I need to be.' JK Dobbins: 'It's a true blessing. I'm so glad to be here. We're going to do some great things this year.' — Nick Kosmider (@NickKosmider) June 11, 2025 Payton has made it clear there is not yet a defined pecking order in Denver's backfield, which also includes rookie second-round pick RJ Harvey and returning players Jaleel McLaughlin, Audric Estimé and Tyler Badie. 'Don't try to figure out the club right now,' Payton said. 'It's way too early.' But Dobbins, who has been in the NFL since joining the Baltimore Ravens as a second-round pick in 2020, brings an experienced veteran presence the Broncos didn't have in the room. That was an important part of the equation for Denver as it works to find the right mix at a position that must be more productive in 2025. Advertisement 'That is a guy who's had a lot of success in his career,' offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi said. 'It's someone we've always had a lot of respect for. It adds talent and competition to that room. Obviously, he's been a very productive runner and he's a good pass protector. I think it will help the competition in that room and help the team.' Darren Rizzi hoped to be named the new head coach of the New Orleans Saints after serving as the team's interim coach for the second half of the 2024 season. The job went instead to Kellen Moore, leaving Rizzi in search of the next opportunity. Not that there was a lot of suspense about where the veteran coach would end up. With Payton having an opening for a special teams coordinator after firing Ben Kotwica, a reunion with Rizzi, who previously served the same role for Payton in New Orleans, was not a challenging dot to connect. 'I just think it was an easy match,' Rizzi said Wednesday. 'Obviously, having worked for Sean for three years and having been under him and learned, we're on the same page with a lot of things. He mentioned the word compatibility. I would say the three years I was with Sean, it was definitely that. Even when, obviously, he left the Saints, he still had a big stamp on that organization, so we continued to do a lot of the same things that he did when he was there. Just familiar with the coach, familiar with the person. We always got along great off the field as well, so for me it was an easy choice.' Rizzi has already had a noticeable imprint on the Broncos. Denver signed two potential special teams stalwarts during free agency in wide receiver Trent Sherfield Jr. and safety Sam Franklin. The Broncos used their fourth-round pick on Que Robinson, an outside linebacker who was a prolific special teams player at Alabama. They were also the only team to draft a punter, using their sixth-round selection on Florida's Jeremy Crawshaw, who has already made a strong impression on his new coach. 'Here's a guy that came from Australia, went to an SEC school, a top-level college program, had a ton of success,' Rizzi said. 'His maturity level, he's kind of beyond his years. When we were kind of evaluating all the punters in this draft, his name came up. I really feel like his intangibles, his off-the-field stuff, was A-plus. Now, his talent level is tremendous as well. I really believe that at that position, at a specialist position, your demeanor might be just as important as your ability because it's a one-play-and-done (job). You have to have the mentality of kind of a batter in baseball, if you will, or a golfer. You have to go on to the next swing. I really like his level-headedness.'
Yahoo
29-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
NFL is the ultimate 'copycat league.' So what trends will we see in 2025?
All data via TruMedia unless otherwise stated. 'Copycat league' is the common refrain when a trend starts appearing enough in the NFL to invoke the Baader–Meinhof phenomenon, whether it be a coaching hire, a personnel preference, a scheme quirk. These things catch on quickly in the ever-evolving and ever-changing world of NFL teams that are constantly studying themselves, their rivals, and their collegiate and high school peers. Advertisement What takes the league by storm in September will be imitated, dominated, and even improved upon by the time the holiday season rolls around (ask the recent Dolphins offenses). Sometimes there are schemes that have fallen out of favor that have been dusted off, redesigned or distilled and found new ways — or sometimes just the classic ways — to be used. Even as just a change-up to whatever has become the norm. Straight dropback passing is making a comeback One type of play that I think will start gaining more favor, even if it's just a slightly bigger blip on the radar, is a tried-and-true play that you could say John Heisman and Teddy Roosevelt helped invent. That's the straight dropback pass from under center. Advertisement Throwing the ball without any play action (a play fake to the running back) is one of the main food groups of football concepts. But what was once the staple of this diet, throwing the ball from under center, has instead been substituted with a lean into the pass-centric nature of modern offenses. There's been more shotgun or even pistol as the base set of offenses, which helps create space and read elements in the run game for more athletic quarterbacks and allows them to see more of the field. Under center plays have morphed into a clear signal of either a run play to a back, or play action off faking it. It's removed scissors in the constant game of rock, paper, scissor that offenses and defenses throw at each other. Basing out of shotgun absolutely has benefits in attacking a defense, including certain RPOs and in quick game, along with varying motion quirks you can throw in. But I think the NFL hit its nadir in using straight dropback passing, which was once a Day 1 installation for offensive football. Advertisement NFL offenses threw the ball from under center on early downs 11,367 times in 2002, over 22 times a game. In 2024 that number was 2,855, or 5.3 times per game. And that's including play action. Without play action, that number dropped to 1.1 in 2023 before having a slight increase this past season. I think we'll see an upswing in usage as teams see the benefits of giving defenses another thing to think about. All while hunting explosive plays on early downs and having some old-school soundness in protection and play design. (The classics are the classics for a reason. Even if they aren't cool at the moment.) The offensive play-callers that are the main practitioners of this ancient art of passing are actually the coaches that were recently labeled as the wunderkinds of the league. The 49ers under Kyle Shanahan led the way with 2.6 under center dropbacks without play action on early downs per game in 2024, averaging over nine yards per play. The Saints under Klint Kubiak (of the same Shanahan-Kubiak coaching tree) were in second. Kubiak's 2021 offense, meanwhile, ran more than five per game, and his father Gary's offenses in Minnesota topped the leaderboard since 2019. Other offenses from the same tree rounded out the top five of straight dropback passing in 2024, including the Texans, Vikings and Lions. Brock Purdy and the 49ers led the NFL in under center dropbacks with no play action on early downs in 2024. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images) (Thearon W. Henderson via Getty Images) There are numbers past the eye test that indicate that these plays are more than just a football version of an eephus pitch. I think NFL teams will add it to their arsenal in the coming years. On dropback passes featuring no play action since 2019, under center concepts have a higher success rate (49.3%), net yards per attempt (6.6), and EPA per play (.05) than their shotgun (45.4%, 6.3, 45.4%) and pistol (46.1%, 6.5, .02) compatriots. Advertisement There are tradeoffs for operating under center, most notably with inside pressure and the lack of space (relatively) to the line of scrimmage for the quarterback (which is dangerous against modern interior defensive lineman). But as defenses have become more complex and have better access to opponent scouting and tendency data than ever, offenses have to find ways to keep them on their toes. Indicating clear run or clear pass just by where the quarterback is aligned already puts the offense behind the 8-ball. Sprinkling in a few more old dropbacks will help keep the cue stick in the offense's hands. Third and fourth downs are a whole new ballgame now thanks in part to shorter fields Rule changes can have other effects on the game outside of just the plays they are intended to impact. The NFL's kickoff rule changes, which first moved the ball up to the 25 after touchbacks in 2018 and then turned into the new "dynamic kickoff" implemented last season, had ramifications on other aspects of the sport as well. NFL offenses averaged 62.2 plays per game in 2024. That was the lowest league-wide mark since 2008 and the second-lowest since 2002, when the NFL expanded to 32 teams and eight divisions. NFL offenses also averaged 10.7 drives per game in 2024, the lowest league-wide number over the same time period. Why? Well, the ball being spotted further down the field after touchbacks (which will bump even further this season to the 35-yard line following another rule change) means, just by sheer math, less yards offenses have to gain to score on a given drive. NFL teams are also going for it on fourth down more than ever, and plays per drive has gone up as well. Advertisement The NFL is so situational and now that the math has changed, offenses are also adjusting how they go about situations like third and fourth down. Teams are not only going for it more on fourth down, they're getting better at it, too. NFL offenses converted 56.4% of their fourth down attempts last season, the highest league-wide conversion rate since at least 2002. They are treating third down differently, too. Particularly third-and-long situations, commonly defined as third down and seven or more yards to go. Three of the four worst league-wide conversion rates on third-and-long have happened since 2022, the same time that fourth down aggression has become more normalized. Offenses are realizing that third down no longer requires an all-or-nothing play call with a long-developing dropback pass or a shrug of the shoulder white flag screen or draw play that has a fanbase calling for their offensive coordinator's job. Instead, fourth down aggression has opened the playbook for offenses on third down. Screens are now an easy button that can put you in strike range on fourth down. Checkdowns are no longer groan-worthy, but instead a viable option that can put the offense in a better position for the next down. NFL offenses are even running the ball more frequently on third-and-long now to catch exotic, blitz-happy defenses by surprise and out of position; 10.7% of third-and-longs in 2024 featured a designed run play, the highest league-wide rate the NFL has seen since 2009, when two-high coverages and the Ravens/Rex Ryan's blitz-happy ways were in vogue. It's not a coincidence that the numbers are more similar to the late 2000s than something five years ago. It was a similar environment back then to what current NFL offenses have to deal with, after a decade of single-high defenses trying to emulate the Legion of Boom. Albeit current offenses have to deal with even more aggressive and dynamic looks and an onslaught of pass rushers on a weekly basis. Advertisement NFL defenses are getting even better and better at disguising and providing window dressing on their defensive looks. And this is on top of the depth of pass rushers that every team is seemingly armed with these days. But NFL offenses have started to figure out some things on late downs. While their third-and-long rates have dropped, they have actually racked up strong overall third down conversion rates (fourth-highest since 2002), and NFL offenses recorded a 52.6% conversion rate on third-and-six or less in 2024, which was a top-five conversion rate since 2002. It's a nice indication of the current upswing in play-calling and quarterback play league-wide. (Yes, really, don't let anyone scream at you differently.) Road grating run games taking advantage of lighter defenders Ball carriers are also gaining more yards after contact than ever before, too. Running backs gained an average of 3.02 yards after contact per designed run attempt in 2024. That's the highest since 2006 (the furthest TruMedia's data goes back for this statistic) and the first time that number has ever cracked three yards. While yards before contact still remain relatively low (1.35 yards, fourth-lowest since 2006), which I think is a fair reflection of the talent disparity between NFL offensive lines and defensive fronts, I also think this reflects the tradeoff of size for speed that NFL defenses have undergone over the last five to 10 years. In 2024, the average playing weight among NFL defensive linemen and linebackers that played 200 or more snaps was 271.2 pounds. In 2018, that number was 272.5 pounds. In 2013, it was 276.5 pounds. NFL front seven defenders have become lighter and faster, a reaction to a more pass-heavy NFL that requires better pass rushers and coverage defenders to throw at these talented quarterbacks, pass catchers, and passing games. Defenses are going lighter as defenders' position labels start to merge. A player listed as a safety could line up in the box like a linebacker or in the slot more frequently than they do as a deep coverage player. Sub-230-pound linebackers are becoming more the norm than a curiosity. Edge defenders are asked to align inside on passing downs to attack mismatches against guards (who are becoming more skilled in their own right). But this has opened up avenues for offenses to attack. Namely, just being big up front and road grating jittery defenses with downhill gap runs. Offenses leaning into their more athletic quarterbacks and their running ability has also changed the math of how defenses have to attack, with more plays featuring a read element out of the shotgun changing the angles and forcing defenses to rally and tackle in space and swarm with numbers. NFL offenses have benefitted when defenses don't have good eyes on these plays; the NFL's 8.3% explosive run rate on early downs was the second-highest league-wide number since 2002. Tight ends creating mismatches that trickle down throughout offenses Another way offenses are creating more advantages is by using the classic mismatch staple: tight ends. Just as defensive body types start to merge, pass catchers, blockers and ball carriers are starting to blend as well. Big-bodied wide receivers who can't consistently win on the outside are moving inside as power slots, becoming de facto tight ends inserting as blockers at the point of attack on run plays. (Or as runners — the five highest rates of WR runs league-wide since 2002 have been over the last five seasons.) Advertisement Receiving ability is a prerequisite to be a modern NFL running back. Quarterbacks run more than ever, with scramble rates rising every year (and not slowing down with the likes of Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, and Bo Nix establishing themselves). Athletic tight ends that used to get squeezed off the field because of their lack of blocking ability are starting to find a role again. NFL offensive play-callers are no longer asking receiving-first tight ends to down block an oversized defensive end. They're putting players in motion to build momentum and alter angles of blocks on the defense right at the snap of the ball. RPOs allow tight ends to not even have to block, but instead run a simple route instead. Play-callers are aligning them all over the field. Offenses are moving these guys around and creating two-back and full house backfields with tight ends (and even receivers). It changes up the strength of the run and the gaps the defenders have to account for after the snap of the football. And it gives defenses even more to prepare for out of certain personnel groups. The Ravens have weaponized these looks to open up their run game menu with Lamar Jackson. But other teams are starting to use more formational variety with their skill players on other type of concepts as well. Particularly teams like the Bengals, Packers, Cardinals and Falcons. The Rams appear to be planning on "replacing" Cooper Kupp, who performed many tight end roles in their offense, with rookie Terrance Ferguson (pictured) and the rest of their tight end room. (Photo by David Crane/MediaNews Group/Los Angeles Daily News via Getty Images) (MediaNews Group/Los Angeles Daily News via Getty Images via Getty Images) And while defenses are now more comfortable using nickel (five defensive backs) and even dime (six defensive backs) to counter multi-tight end looks and hold up against the run, offenses are also starting to find ways to use their natural size advantage. Since there are more safeties in the box and linebackers are no longer 260-pound rhinos steamrolling blockers, tight ends can now be asked to insert and lead block on the second level. That opens up the menu to feature even more two-back-type runs (think fullback-type plays), but from a more spread look. This is on top of the other plays that feature motion at the snap. Advertisement Narratives about how tight ends create mismatches or how there's a new tight end wave are old hat. But there was an increase of multi-tight end personnel groupings in 2024 that matches the eye test: NFL offenses used 12 personnel (1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR) at the highest rate since 2013, which is the furthest that TruMedia's data goes back. Offenses used two or more tight ends on 7.6% of plays in 2024, the highest rate since at least 2002. Viable tight ends are always going to be hard to find because of the sheer athletic threshold for playing the position. But the ease of entry as a blocker has lowered, along with the increased athleticism and skills of a younger generation, has opened up roles for these players. There are teams, like the Rams and really the entire NFC West, that are tipping back their personnel usage to featuring more size with tight ends than the three-wide receiver meta of recent years. The Rams are seemingly 'replacing' Cooper Kupp, who often performed many tight end-esque roles in that offense, with their tight end room of Tyler Higbee, Terrance Ferguson, Colby Parkinson, and Davis Allen. With more talented tight ends entering the NFL in the recent draft, it'll be fun to see more and more teams inverting the role of their skill players.
Yahoo
29-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
NFL is the ultimate 'copycat league.' So what trends will we see in 2025?
All data via TruMedia unless otherwise stated. 'Copycat league' is the common refrain when a trend starts appearing enough in the NFL to invoke the Baader–Meinhof phenomenon, whether it be a coaching hire, a personnel preference, a scheme quirk. These things catch on quickly in the ever-evolving and ever-changing world of NFL teams that are constantly studying themselves, their rivals, and their collegiate and high school peers. What takes the league by storm in September will be imitated, dominated, and even improved upon by the time the holiday season rolls around (ask the recent Dolphins offenses). Sometimes there are schemes that have fallen out of favor that have been dusted off, redesigned or distilled and found new ways — or sometimes just the classic ways — to be used. Even as just a change-up to whatever has become the norm. One type of play that I think will start gaining more favor, even if it's just a slightly bigger blip on the radar, is a tried-and-true play that you could say John Heisman and Teddy Roosevelt helped invent. That's the straight dropback pass from under center. Throwing the ball without any play action (a play fake to the running back) is one of the main food groups of football concepts. But what was once the staple of this diet, throwing the ball from under center, has instead been substituted with a lean into the pass-centric nature of modern offenses. There's been more shotgun or even pistol as the base set of offenses, which helps create space and read elements in the run game for more athletic quarterbacks and allows them to see more of the field. Under center plays have morphed into a clear signal of either a run play to a back, or play action off faking it. It's removed scissors in the constant game of rock, paper, scissor that offenses and defenses throw at each other. Basing out of shotgun absolutely has benefits in attacking a defense, including certain RPOs and in quick game, along with varying motion quirks you can throw in. But I think the NFL hit its nadir in using straight dropback passing, which was once a Day 1 installation for offensive football. NFL offenses threw the ball from under center on early downs 11,367 times in 2002, over 22 times a game. In 2024 that number was 2,855, or 5.3 times per game. And that's including play action. Without play action, that number dropped to 1.1 in 2023 before having a slight increase this past season. I think we'll see an upswing in usage as teams see the benefits of giving defenses another thing to think about. All while hunting explosive plays on early downs and having some old-school soundness in protection and play design. (The classics are the classics for a reason. Even if they aren't cool at the moment.) The offensive play-callers that are the main practitioners of this ancient art of passing are actually the coaches that were recently labeled as the wunderkinds of the league. The 49ers under Kyle Shanahan led the way with 2.6 under center dropbacks without play action on early downs per game in 2024, averaging over nine yards per play. The Saints under Klint Kubiak (of the same Shanahan-Kubiak coaching tree) were in second. Kubiak's 2021 offense, meanwhile, ran more than five per game, and his father Gary's offenses in Minnesota topped the leaderboard since 2019. Other offenses from the same tree rounded out the top five of straight dropback passing in 2024, including the Texans, Vikings and Lions. There are numbers past the eye test that indicate that these plays are more than just a football version of an eephus pitch. I think NFL teams will add it to their arsenal in the coming years. On dropback passes featuring no play action since 2019, under center concepts have a higher success rate (49.3%), net yards per attempt (6.6), and EPA per play (.05) than their shotgun (45.4%, 6.3, 45.4%) and pistol (46.1%, 6.5, .02) compatriots. There are tradeoffs for operating under center, most notably with inside pressure and the lack of space (relatively) to the line of scrimmage for the quarterback (which is dangerous against modern interior defensive lineman). But as defenses have become more complex and have better access to opponent scouting and tendency data than ever, offenses have to find ways to keep them on their toes. Indicating clear run or clear pass just by where the quarterback is aligned already puts the offense behind the 8-ball. Sprinkling in a few more old dropbacks will help keep the cue stick in the offense's hands. Rule changes can have other effects on the game outside of just the plays they are intended to impact. The NFL's kickoff rule changes, which first moved the ball up to the 25 after touchbacks in 2018 and then turned into the new "dynamic kickoff" implemented last season, had ramifications on other aspects of the sport as well. NFL offenses averaged 62.2 plays per game in 2024. That was the lowest league-wide mark since 2008 and the second-lowest since 2002, when the NFL expanded to 32 teams and eight divisions. NFL offenses also averaged 10.7 drives per game in 2024, the lowest league-wide number over the same time period. Why? Well, the ball being spotted further down the field after touchbacks (which will bump even further this season to the 35-yard line following another rule change) means, just by sheer math, less yards offenses have to gain to score on a given drive. NFL teams are also going for it on fourth down more than ever, and plays per drive has gone up as well. The NFL is so situational and now that the math has changed, offenses are also adjusting how they go about situations like third and fourth down. Teams are not only going for it more on fourth down, they're getting better at it, too. NFL offenses converted 56.4% of their fourth down attempts last season, the highest league-wide conversion rate since at least 2002. They are treating third down differently, too. Particularly third-and-long situations, commonly defined as third down and seven or more yards to go. Three of the four worst league-wide conversion rates on third-and-long have happened since 2022, the same time that fourth down aggression has become more normalized. Offenses are realizing that third down no longer requires an all-or-nothing play call with a long-developing dropback pass or a shrug of the shoulder white flag screen or draw play that has a fanbase calling for their offensive coordinator's job. Instead, fourth down aggression has opened the playbook for offenses on third down. Screens are now an easy button that can put you in strike range on fourth down. Checkdowns are no longer groan-worthy, but instead a viable option that can put the offense in a better position for the next down. NFL offenses are even running the ball more frequently on third-and-long now to catch exotic, blitz-happy defenses by surprise and out of position; 10.7% of third-and-longs in 2024 featured a designed run play, the highest league-wide rate the NFL has seen since 2009, when two-high coverages and the Ravens/Rex Ryan's blitz-happy ways were in vogue. It's not a coincidence that the numbers are more similar to the late 2000s than something five years ago. It was a similar environment back then to what current NFL offenses have to deal with, after a decade of single-high defenses trying to emulate the Legion of Boom. Albeit current offenses have to deal with even more aggressive and dynamic looks and an onslaught of pass rushers on a weekly basis. NFL defenses are getting even better and better at disguising and providing window dressing on their defensive looks. And this is on top of the depth of pass rushers that every team is seemingly armed with these days. But NFL offenses have started to figure out some things on late downs. While their third-and-long rates have dropped, they have actually racked up strong overall third down conversion rates (fourth-highest since 2002), and NFL offenses recorded a 52.6% conversion rate on third-and-six or less in 2024, which was a top-five conversion rate since 2002. It's a nice indication of the current upswing in play-calling and quarterback play league-wide. (Yes, really, don't let anyone scream at you differently.) Ball carriers are also gaining more yards after contact than ever before, too. Running backs gained an average of 3.02 yards after contact per designed run attempt in 2024. That's the highest since 2006 (the furthest TruMedia's data goes back for this statistic) and the first time that number has ever cracked three yards. While yards before contact still remain relatively low (1.35 yards, fourth-lowest since 2006), which I think is a fair reflection of the talent disparity between NFL offensive lines and defensive fronts, I also think this reflects the tradeoff of size for speed that NFL defenses have undergone over the last five to 10 years. In 2024, the average playing weight among NFL defensive linemen and linebackers that played 200 or more snaps was 271.2 pounds. In 2018, that number was 272.5 pounds. In 2013, it was 276.5 pounds. NFL front seven defenders have become lighter and faster, a reaction to a more pass-heavy NFL that requires better pass rushers and coverage defenders to throw at these talented quarterbacks, pass catchers, and passing games. Defenses are going lighter as defenders' position labels start to merge. A player listed as a safety could line up in the box like a linebacker or in the slot more frequently than they do as a deep coverage player. Sub-230-pound linebackers are becoming more the norm than a curiosity. Edge defenders are asked to align inside on passing downs to attack mismatches against guards (who are becoming more skilled in their own right). But this has opened up avenues for offenses to attack. Namely, just being big up front and road grating jittery defenses with downhill gap runs. Offenses leaning into their more athletic quarterbacks and their running ability has also changed the math of how defenses have to attack, with more plays featuring a read element out of the shotgun changing the angles and forcing defenses to rally and tackle in space and swarm with numbers. NFL offenses have benefitted when defenses don't have good eyes on these plays; the NFL's 8.3% explosive run rate on early downs was the second-highest league-wide number since 2002. Another way offenses are creating more advantages is by using the classic mismatch staple: tight ends. Just as defensive body types start to merge, pass catchers, blockers and ball carriers are starting to blend as well. Big-bodied wide receivers who can't consistently win on the outside are moving inside as power slots, becoming de facto tight ends inserting as blockers at the point of attack on run plays. (Or as runners — the five highest rates of WR runs league-wide since 2002 have been over the last five seasons.) Receiving ability is a prerequisite to be a modern NFL running back. Quarterbacks run more than ever, with scramble rates rising every year (and not slowing down with the likes of Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, and Bo Nix establishing themselves). Athletic tight ends that used to get squeezed off the field because of their lack of blocking ability are starting to find a role again. NFL offensive play-callers are no longer asking receiving-first tight ends to down block an oversized defensive end. They're putting players in motion to build momentum and alter angles of blocks on the defense right at the snap of the ball. RPOs allow tight ends to not even have to block, but instead run a simple route instead. Play-callers are aligning them all over the field. Offenses are moving these guys around and creating two-back and full house backfields with tight ends (and even receivers). It changes up the strength of the run and the gaps the defenders have to account for after the snap of the football. And it gives defenses even more to prepare for out of certain personnel groups. The Ravens have weaponized these looks to open up their run game menu with Lamar Jackson. But other teams are starting to use more formational variety with their skill players on other type of concepts as well. Particularly teams like the Bengals, Packers, Cardinals and Falcons. And while defenses are now more comfortable using nickel (five defensive backs) and even dime (six defensive backs) to counter multi-tight end looks and hold up against the run, offenses are also starting to find ways to use their natural size advantage. Since there are more safeties in the box and linebackers are no longer 260-pound rhinos steamrolling blockers, tight ends can now be asked to insert and lead block on the second level. That opens up the menu to feature even more two-back-type runs (think fullback-type plays), but from a more spread look. This is on top of the other plays that feature motion at the snap. Narratives about how tight ends create mismatches or how there's a new tight end wave are old hat. But there was an increase of multi-tight end personnel groupings in 2024 that matches the eye test: NFL offenses used 12 personnel (1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR) at the highest rate since 2013, which is the furthest that TruMedia's data goes back. Offenses used two or more tight ends on 7.6% of plays in 2024, the highest rate since at least 2002. Viable tight ends are always going to be hard to find because of the sheer athletic threshold for playing the position. But the ease of entry as a blocker has lowered, along with the increased athleticism and skills of a younger generation, has opened up roles for these players. There are teams, like the Rams and really the entire NFC West, that are tipping back their personnel usage to featuring more size with tight ends than the three-wide receiver meta of recent years. The Rams are seemingly 'replacing' Cooper Kupp, who often performed many tight end-esque roles in that offense, with their tight end room of Tyler Higbee, Terrance Ferguson, Colby Parkinson, and Davis Allen. With more talented tight ends entering the NFL in the recent draft, it'll be fun to see more and more teams inverting the role of their skill players.
Yahoo
29-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
NFL is the ultimate 'copycat league.' So what trends will we see in 2025?
All data via TruMedia unless otherwise stated. 'Copycat league' is the common refrain when a trend starts appearing enough in the NFL to invoke the Baader–Meinhof phenomenon, whether it be a coaching hire, a personnel preference, a scheme quirk. These things catch on quickly in the ever-evolving and ever-changing world of NFL teams that are constantly studying themselves, their rivals, and their collegiate and high school peers. What takes the league by storm in September will be imitated, dominated, and even improved upon by the time the holiday season rolls around (ask the recent Dolphins offenses). Sometimes there are schemes that have fallen out of favor that have been dusted off, redesigned or distilled and found new ways — or sometimes just the classic ways — to be used. Even as just a change-up to whatever has become the norm. One type of play that I think will start gaining more favor, even if it's just a slightly bigger blip on the radar, is a tried-and-true play that you could say John Heisman and Teddy Roosevelt helped invent. That's the straight dropback pass from under center. Throwing the ball without any play action (a play fake to the running back) is one of the main food groups of football concepts. But what was once the staple of this diet, throwing the ball from under center, has instead been substituted with a lean into the pass-centric nature of modern offenses. There's been more shotgun or even pistol as the base set of offenses, which helps create space and read elements in the run game for more athletic quarterbacks and allows them to see more of the field. Under center plays have morphed into a clear signal of either a run play to a back, or play action off faking it. It's removed scissors in the constant game of rock, paper, scissor that offenses and defenses throw at each other. Basing out of shotgun absolutely has benefits in attacking a defense, including certain RPOs and in quick game, along with varying motion quirks you can throw in. But I think the NFL hit its nadir in using straight dropback passing, which was once a Day 1 installation for offensive football. NFL offenses threw the ball from under center on early downs 11,367 times in 2002, over 22 times a game. In 2024 that number was 2,855, or 5.3 times per game. And that's including play action. Without play action, that number dropped to 1.1 in 2023 before having a slight increase this past season. I think we'll see an upswing in usage as teams see the benefits of giving defenses another thing to think about. All while hunting explosive plays on early downs and having some old-school soundness in protection and play design. (The classics are the classics for a reason. Even if they aren't cool at the moment.) The offensive play-callers that are the main practitioners of this ancient art of passing are actually the coaches that were recently labeled as the wunderkinds of the league. The 49ers under Kyle Shanahan led the way with 2.6 under center dropbacks without play action on early downs per game in 2024, averaging over nine yards per play. The Saints under Klint Kubiak (of the same Shanahan-Kubiak coaching tree) were in second. Kubiak's 2021 offense, meanwhile, ran more than five per game, and his father Gary's offenses in Minnesota topped the leaderboard since 2019. Other offenses from the same tree rounded out the top five of straight dropback passing in 2024, including the Texans, Vikings and Lions. There are numbers past the eye test that indicate that these plays are more than just a football version of an eephus pitch. I think NFL teams will add it to their arsenal in the coming years. On dropback passes featuring no play action since 2019, under center concepts have a higher success rate (49.3%), net yards per attempt (6.6), and EPA per play (.05) than their shotgun (45.4%, 6.3, 45.4%) and pistol (46.1%, 6.5, .02) compatriots. There are tradeoffs for operating under center, most notably with inside pressure and the lack of space (relatively) to the line of scrimmage for the quarterback (which is dangerous against modern interior defensive lineman). But as defenses have become more complex and have better access to opponent scouting and tendency data than ever, offenses have to find ways to keep them on their toes. Indicating clear run or clear pass just by where the quarterback is aligned already puts the offense behind the 8-ball. Sprinkling in a few more old dropbacks will help keep the cue stick in the offense's hands. Rule changes can have other effects on the game outside of just the plays they are intended to impact. The NFL's kickoff rule changes, which first moved the ball up to the 25 after touchbacks in 2018 and then turned into the new "dynamic kickoff" implemented last season, had ramifications on other aspects of the sport as well. NFL offenses averaged 62.2 plays per game in 2024. That was the lowest league-wide mark since 2008 and the second-lowest since 2002, when the NFL expanded to 32 teams and eight divisions. NFL offenses also averaged 10.7 drives per game in 2024, the lowest league-wide number over the same time period. Why? Well, the ball being spotted further down the field after touchbacks (which will bump even further this season to the 35-yard line following another rule change) means, just by sheer math, less yards offenses have to gain to score on a given drive. NFL teams are also going for it on fourth down more than ever, and plays per drive has gone up as well. The NFL is so situational and now that the math has changed, offenses are also adjusting how they go about situations like third and fourth down. Teams are not only going for it more on fourth down, they're getting better at it, too. NFL offenses converted 56.4% of their fourth down attempts last season, the highest league-wide conversion rate since at least 2002. They are treating third down differently, too. Particularly third-and-long situations, commonly defined as third down and seven or more yards to go. Three of the four worst league-wide conversion rates on third-and-long have happened since 2022, the same time that fourth down aggression has become more normalized. Offenses are realizing that third down no longer requires an all-or-nothing play call with a long-developing dropback pass or a shrug of the shoulder white flag screen or draw play that has a fanbase calling for their offensive coordinator's job. Instead, fourth down aggression has opened the playbook for offenses on third down. Screens are now an easy button that can put you in strike range on fourth down. Checkdowns are no longer groan-worthy, but instead a viable option that can put the offense in a better position for the next down. NFL offenses are even running the ball more frequently on third-and-long now to catch exotic, blitz-happy defenses by surprise and out of position; 10.7% of third-and-longs in 2024 featured a designed run play, the highest league-wide rate the NFL has seen since 2009, when two-high coverages and the Ravens/Rex Ryan's blitz-happy ways were in vogue. It's not a coincidence that the numbers are more similar to the late 2000s than something five years ago. It was a similar environment back then to what current NFL offenses have to deal with, after a decade of single-high defenses trying to emulate the Legion of Boom. Albeit current offenses have to deal with even more aggressive and dynamic looks and an onslaught of pass rushers on a weekly basis. NFL defenses are getting even better and better at disguising and providing window dressing on their defensive looks. And this is on top of the depth of pass rushers that every team is seemingly armed with these days. But NFL offenses have started to figure out some things on late downs. While their third-and-long rates have dropped, they have actually racked up strong overall third down conversion rates (fourth-highest since 2002), and NFL offenses recorded a 52.6% conversion rate on third-and-six or less in 2024, which was a top-five conversion rate since 2002. It's a nice indication of the current upswing in play-calling and quarterback play league-wide. (Yes, really, don't let anyone scream at you differently.) Ball carriers are also gaining more yards after contact than ever before, too. Running backs gained an average of 3.02 yards after contact per designed run attempt in 2024. That's the highest since 2006 (the furthest TruMedia's data goes back for this statistic) and the first time that number has ever cracked three yards. While yards before contact still remain relatively low (1.35 yards, fourth-lowest since 2006), which I think is a fair reflection of the talent disparity between NFL offensive lines and defensive fronts, I also think this reflects the tradeoff of size for speed that NFL defenses have undergone over the last five to 10 years. In 2024, the average playing weight among NFL defensive linemen and linebackers that played 200 or more snaps was 271.2 pounds. In 2018, that number was 272.5 pounds. In 2013, it was 276.5 pounds. NFL front seven defenders have become lighter and faster, a reaction to a more pass-heavy NFL that requires better pass rushers and coverage defenders to throw at these talented quarterbacks, pass catchers, and passing games. Defenses are going lighter as defenders' position labels start to merge. A player listed as a safety could line up in the box like a linebacker or in the slot more frequently than they do as a deep coverage player. Sub-230-pound linebackers are becoming more the norm than a curiosity. Edge defenders are asked to align inside on passing downs to attack mismatches against guards (who are becoming more skilled in their own right). But this has opened up avenues for offenses to attack. Namely, just being big up front and road grating jittery defenses with downhill gap runs. Offenses leaning into their more athletic quarterbacks and their running ability has also changed the math of how defenses have to attack, with more plays featuring a read element out of the shotgun changing the angles and forcing defenses to rally and tackle in space and swarm with numbers. NFL offenses have benefitted when defenses don't have good eyes on these plays; the NFL's 8.3% explosive run rate on early downs was the second-highest league-wide number since 2002. Another way offenses are creating more advantages is by using the classic mismatch staple: tight ends. Just as defensive body types start to merge, pass catchers, blockers and ball carriers are starting to blend as well. Big-bodied wide receivers who can't consistently win on the outside are moving inside as power slots, becoming de facto tight ends inserting as blockers at the point of attack on run plays. (Or as runners — the five highest rates of WR runs league-wide since 2002 have been over the last five seasons.) Receiving ability is a prerequisite to be a modern NFL running back. Quarterbacks run more than ever, with scramble rates rising every year (and not slowing down with the likes of Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, and Bo Nix establishing themselves). Athletic tight ends that used to get squeezed off the field because of their lack of blocking ability are starting to find a role again. NFL offensive play-callers are no longer asking receiving-first tight ends to down block an oversized defensive end. They're putting players in motion to build momentum and alter angles of blocks on the defense right at the snap of the ball. RPOs allow tight ends to not even have to block, but instead run a simple route instead. Play-callers are aligning them all over the field. Offenses are moving these guys around and creating two-back and full house backfields with tight ends (and even receivers). It changes up the strength of the run and the gaps the defenders have to account for after the snap of the football. And it gives defenses even more to prepare for out of certain personnel groups. The Ravens have weaponized these looks to open up their run game menu with Lamar Jackson. But other teams are starting to use more formational variety with their skill players on other type of concepts as well. Particularly teams like the Bengals, Packers, Cardinals and Falcons. And while defenses are now more comfortable using nickel (five defensive backs) and even dime (six defensive backs) to counter multi-tight end looks and hold up against the run, offenses are also starting to find ways to use their natural size advantage. Since there are more safeties in the box and linebackers are no longer 260-pound rhinos steamrolling blockers, tight ends can now be asked to insert and lead block on the second level. That opens up the menu to feature even more two-back-type runs (think fullback-type plays), but from a more spread look. This is on top of the other plays that feature motion at the snap. Narratives about how tight ends create mismatches or how there's a new tight end wave are old hat. But there was an increase of multi-tight end personnel groupings in 2024 that matches the eye test: NFL offenses used 12 personnel (1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR) at the highest rate since 2013, which is the furthest that TruMedia's data goes back. Offenses used two or more tight ends on 7.6% of plays in 2024, the highest rate since at least 2002. Viable tight ends are always going to be hard to find because of the sheer athletic threshold for playing the position. But the ease of entry as a blocker has lowered, along with the increased athleticism and skills of a younger generation, has opened up roles for these players. There are teams, like the Rams and really the entire NFC West, that are tipping back their personnel usage to featuring more size with tight ends than the three-wide receiver meta of recent years. The Rams are seemingly 'replacing' Cooper Kupp, who often performed many tight end-esque roles in that offense, with their tight end room of Tyler Higbee, Terrance Ferguson, Colby Parkinson, and Davis Allen. With more talented tight ends entering the NFL in the recent draft, it'll be fun to see more and more teams inverting the role of their skill players.
