Will India avenge Pahalgam terror attack with jets, drones, or something new?
NEW DELHI: India is preparing a high-stakes, multidimensional response to the April 22 massacre of 28 civilians, mostly tourists, in Jammu and
Kashmir
's Pahalgam region. The Resistance Front (
TRF
), a proxy outfit linked to Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and backed by Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), has claimed responsibility.
The massacre at Baisaran, near the resort town of Pahalgam, was the deadliest since the 2019 Pulwama bombing. But unlike Pulwama, which targeted security forces, this time civilians were the target—foreigners included.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi - who cut short his diplomatic mission to Saudi Arabia—held an emergency meeting with national security advisor Ajit Doval and foreign minister
S Jaishankar
at the Delhi airport soon after landing. 'The perpetrators of this cowardly attack won't be spared,' Modi reportedly told top security officials, per sources cited by PTI.
Union home minister Amit Shah on Wednesday reviewed the security situation at the site of the assault in Pahalgam's Baisaran meadow. The home minister walked through the attack site under tight security and received a detailed briefing from senior officials on the current situation and the operations underway in the region.
by Taboola
by Taboola
Sponsored Links
Sponsored Links
Promoted Links
Promoted Links
You May Like
Trade Bitcoin & Ethereum – No Wallet Needed!
IC Markets
Start Now
Undo
Meanwhile, India's military and diplomatic corps have begun charting out options for both kinetic and non-kinetic retaliation.
Why it matters
Ceasefire on the brink: The 2021 India-Pakistan LoC truce-widely credited with reducing cross-border shelling—now teeters on collapse. 'All bets are off with the LoC,' South Asia expert
Michael Kugelman
posted on X.
Deterrence credibility under pressure: Since 2016, India has twice responded to high-profile terror attacks with cross-border force: the
Uri
surgical strikes and the Balakot air raids. Another high-casualty strike, especially against civilians, challenges New Delhi to reassert its doctrine of "punitive deterrence."
Geopolitical implications: The massacre's timing—overlapping with US Vice President JD Vance's India trip and PM Modi's Saudi outreach—suggests an intent to draw international focus to Kashmir. Ex-Pakistan envoy Husain Haqqani likened the attack to Hamas' October 7 strike on Israel, warning of 'portentous ramifications.'
Zoom in: A familiar doctrine meets a new test
India's past retaliatory playbook centers on two defining actions:
Uri surgical strikes (2016):
Eleven days after militants attacked an Army base, Indian special forces struck multiple terror launch pads across the LoC in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. The operation was limited, precise, and publicly declared to assert resolve.
Balakot airstrikes (2019):
Following the Pulwama suicide bombing that killed 40 CRPF personnel, India conducted airstrikes deep inside Pakistan's Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, targeting a Jaish-e-Mohammed training facility.
These responses form the foundation of India's 'punitive deterrence' model: Escalate just enough to impose a cost but avoid provoking a wider war. The Pahalgam attack, with its scale, communal targeting, and international optics, tests whether that doctrine still has teeth—or needs an upgrade.
Between the lines: The dog whistle that may have drawn blood
Pakistan army chief General Asim Munir's recent rhetoric is now under intense scrutiny by Indian intelligence and strategic circles. His fiery public remarks, particularly branding Kashmir as Pakistan's 'jugular vein,' are being viewed not just as provocative symbolism but as a signal to militant proxies to escalate operations in the Valley.
Zoom in: What Munir said and why it matters
In a public address earlier this month, Munir said: 'Our stance is absolutely clear — Kashmir was our
jugular vein
, it will be our jugular vein, we will not forget it. We will not leave our Kashmiri brothers in their struggle.'
Indian officials say the timing of this statement—just days before the Pahalgam attack—was not coincidental. His use of emotionally charged language echoed Pakistan's long-standing two-nation theory and was seen by analysts as an ideological green light for terror outfits seeking relevance amid declining domestic traction in Kashmir.
A senior Indian security official described it as 'classic dog-whistling,' designed to incite action without direct attribution. 'They don't need to say 'attack.' Just saying 'jugular vein' is enough for their proxies to get the message,' the official said.
Rhetoric meets action: TRF's timing speaks volumes
The Resistance Front (TRF), a front organization of Lashkar-e-Taiba, claimed responsibility for the Pahalgam massacre. TRF has often operated under ISI patronage, giving Pakistan the plausible deniability it needs to deflect blame.
What makes the Munir connection more chilling: The language of the attack reportedly mirrored the sectarian tone of Munir's speeches. Survivors said the gunmen forced victims to recite Islamic verses, and those who couldn't were shot at close range.
Just days before the attack,
Lashkar
commander Abu Musa held a rally in Rawalkot calling for continued jihad in Kashmir, stating: 'Jihad will continue, guns will rage and beheading will continue in Kashmir.'
Indian intelligence believes this public threat had direct ideological backing from Pakistan's military top brass.
Indian officials now see a pattern of synchronization: Inflammatory speeches followed by high-profile attacks, a tactic meant to destabilize Kashmir, embarrass India globally, and provoke communal unrest.
What they are saying
"Bharat will not bend to terror. The culprits of this dastardly terror attack will not be spared," Union home minister Amit Shah said.
Michael Kugelman, Wilson Center: 'India will review potential kinetic responses… It may also consider non-military measures such as ending the 2021 LoC truce or suspending the Indus Waters Treaty.'
Lt Governor Manoj Sinha: 'The terrorists will pay a very heavy price. No mercy.'
Ex-Pakistan envoy Husain Haqqani: 'The April 22 attack is as portentous as Hamas' October 7 strike. It could reshape regional calculations.'
Beyond bombs: Diplomatic and economic levers
India's options aren't limited to missiles and air raids. Officials may also consider these non-kinetic steps:
Revoking the 2021 LoC ceasefire agreement—a signal that Pakistan can no longer rely on 'quiet' borders while fostering proxy war.
Suspending or redefining the Indus Waters Treaty, within legal bounds, to squeeze Pakistan's critical river flows.
Intensifying FATF lobbying—citing TRF's link to LeT—to push for Pakistan's return to the grey or black list for terror financing.
These steps rarely offer instant gratification but incrementally raise the cost of harboring terror proxies. They also play well with international partners already voicing outrage over the Pahalgam killings.
What 'something new' might look like
India can also use hybrid warfare tactics that avoid full military conflict but still extract a price:
Cyber Ops: Targeting ISI's digital infrastructure to disrupt command-and-control or leak communication intercepts implicating Pakistan.
Smart-border systems: Using sensors, AI, and drones to create 'kill boxes' that auto-target infiltrators.
Information warfare: Broadcasting Munir's dog-whistling and TRF's atrocities globally to shift the Kashmir narrative.
What's next
A layered response is the most likely scenario:
Short-term kinetic punch: Balakot or Uri-style strikes or drone attacks on launch pads to reestablish deterrence.
Covert hunt: Targeted eliminations of TRF handlers in Pakistan or PoK via RAW and special units.
Diplomatic escalation: At the UN, FATF, and regional blocs to isolate Pakistan.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Time of India
16 minutes ago
- Time of India
Sugar minister pays a surprise visit to Malaprabha Sugar Factory in Belagavi
Pic: Minister Shivanand Patil hears grievances at Malaprabha Cooperative Sugar Factory on Saturday evening Belagavi: Sugar minister Shivanand Patil went on a surprise visit to the Malaprabha Sugar Factory at MK Hubli on Saturday evening. He received a barrage of complaints from farmer leaders, workers, as well as the management board. In the wake of complaints received about the Malaprabha Cooperative Sugar Factory, minister Patil visited to the factory on Saturday evening. He experienced a shower of mutual complaints from farmer leaders, workers, and the management board about the poor condition of the factory. The farmers' association leaders complained that the money for supplying sugarcane to the sugarcane growers was due. They said the factory suffered losses due to the corruption of the management board. Some members of the management board had resorted to looting, resulting in crores of rupees being lost, they accused. The chairman of the board of directors explained to the minister that the reason for the loss of the factory was the competition of sugar factories in the district and the conflict between the farmer leaders. Anand Huchagoudar, a leader of the farmers' association, said that the factory's poor condition was due to the shortcomings of the previous and the current board of directors. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like เทรด Bitcoin และ Ethereum - ไม่ต้องใช้กระเป๋าเงิน! IC Markets เริ่มต้นตอนนี้ Undo "The boards of directors showed low sugar yield. They illegally stocked a large amount of sugar and misused it. We detected this irregularity and complained to the deputy commissioner.A complaint was filed with the Lokayukta along with documents regarding the irregularities. We also gave the records of the telephone conversations of those involved in the irregularity to the Lokayukta. Even though the govt appointed an officer for the post of managing director, the board of directors did not allow him to take charge and appointed whoever they wanted," he said. Basavaraj, the chairman of the board of directors, said that the increase in the number of sugar factories in the district is also one of the reasons for the loss. The required amount of sugarcane is not coming to the factory. There is also a non-cooperative attitude of the farmers' association leaders, he said. The factory suffered losses due to the mismanagement of those in power, explained farmer leader Basavaraj Mokashi. Farmers demanded to dismiss the management board immediately; investigate the irregularities and recover the money; avoid the looting that going on even though the factory at a loss; run the factory with assistance from the govt and appoint a govt official for the post of MD. Officials explained to the minister that the factory took a total of Rs 135 crore from various banks and financial institutions. The loan, including interest, amounts to Rs 160 crore.
Time of India
25 minutes ago
- Time of India
YSRCP slams govt for politicizing tragic accident
Vijayawada: The YSRCP has strongly condemned the TDP coalition's attempt to politicize the tragic accident that resulted in the death of party activist Cheeli Singaiah during YS Jagan Mohan Reddy 's recent visit. Former minister Ambati Rambabu said that it was unfortunate to portray the accident as a big conspiracy, instead of treating the matter with the sensitivity it deserves. "The ruling coalition is attempting to exploit it for political gain," Ambati alleged. The YSRCP leader pointed out that Prathipadu YSRCP in-charge Kiran Kumar immediately rushed to the hospital upon receiving news of the accident and remained with the bereaved family until the postmortem was completed, offering them full support. The following day, senior party leaders from the district, including Ambati, visited the family and handed over a cheque of Rs 10 lakh as financial assistance. The district superintendent of police, Satish Kumar, has clearly stated that the vehicle involved in the accident was a private vehicle, not part of YS Jagan Mohan Reddy's convoy. The driver and owner were identified and interrogated, confirming that the accident had no connection with the convoy itself. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Brass Krishna Idols For Prosperity & Protection In Life Luxeartisanship Shop Now Undo Despite this, the ruling coalition released a video four days after the incident, falsely blaming YS Jagan Mohan Reddy. Ambati criticized the Naidu-led govt for failing to provide adequate security to YS Jagan Mohan Reddy, a Z+ security protectee. "A rope party and road clearance team must lead the convoy, but the government has deliberately compromised on Jagan's security," Ambati alleged. This is not an isolated instance, as similar security failures were observed during YS Jagan Mohan Reddy's tours in Rapthadu and Podili. The coalition govt is using these lapses to orchestrate a character assassination campaign against the former CM, he claimed. The YSRCP demands a transparent and impartial investigation into both the accident and the security lapses that continue to put the life of a Z+ protectee at risk. "We urge the state govt to immediately rectify these lapses and stop using such incidents to settle political scores," Ambati said. The party reiterates that human tragedy must never be used as a political weapon.
Time of India
31 minutes ago
- Time of India
How Ludhiana West bypoll result is crucial for all parties
Jalandhar: The result of the Ludhiana West bypoll is crucial for all four main parties, not only regarding their prospects ahead of the 2027 assembly elections but also concerning their internal factional dynamics. A victory for AAP is extremely crucial, as the party faces questions about its performance on different fronts and strong criticism from the opposition and several other quarters, including a section of their own workers. This criticism is due to the appointment of party leaders from Delhi in different public offices of Punjab and the central leadership further tightening its grip on Punjab govt affairs. The desperation for victory was evident from AAP supremo Arvind Kejriwal's announcement that their candidate, Sanjiv Arora, would be made minister after victory. He also warned of a 'development freeze' and that 'not a single thing will move forward' if AAP lost the bypoll. The central leadership raised the stakes high with Kejriwal's statements, and Punjab party in-charge Manish Sisodia directly supervised the campaign on the ground. With the contest in the industrial capital of Punjab and AAP picking Arora, who comes from an affluent business background, the significance of this election goes much beyond a constituency. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like This Wrinkle Cream Keeps Selling Out At Costco (Find Out Why) The Skincare Magazine Undo Victory for the ruling party would strengthen the Delhi-based leadership. Factionalism in Punjab Congress, the main opposition party, and the central leadership's failure in tackling it became evident during the electioneering. Two sides clearly emerged: one including Punjab Congress President Amarinder Singh Raja Waring, Leader of Opposition Partap Singh Bajwa, and MP Sukhjinder Singh Randhawa; and the other including former CM Charanjit Singh Channi, MLAs Rana Gurjeet Singh, Pargat Singh, and Bharat Bhushan Ashu. The former camp largely stayed away from the campaigning. The only glue among the leaders in each faction is not their affinity among themselves but opposition to one or the other in the opposing camps. The result would not only have a bearing on the grand old party's trajectory ahead of the general assembly election but would also affect the factional fight, which is expected to exacerbate, whatever the result may be. It clearly emerged that Ashu was not a proxy for any other leader in the factional fight but has his own issues with Waring. BJP has remained a very strong force at the seat. Though the saffron party has not been overly concerned about the short-term results, its performance would be a signal not only for itself but also for Congress and AAP about their future challenges. Though Shiromani Akali Dal is considered the fourth player at the seat, its performance in terms of vote share would be crucial for party president Sukhbir Singh Badal. This is because it would be the first bypoll after the most tumultuous period of his political career, including his being declared 'tankhaiya' by Akal Takht and a five-member committee enrolling parallel membership of Akali Dal. SAD did not contest the four by-elections after the parliament election of 2024.
