Critical thinking can help you weather winds of change
Hyderabad: The winds of
change
sweeping across the globe driven by factors such as technological change, economic uncertainty, geoeconomic fragmentation, demographic shifts and green transition are rapidly disrupting the job market as well.Pointing to a seismic shift in the global job market between 2025 and 2030, the
World Economic Forum
(
WEF
) in its `Future of
Jobs Report
2025' said: "In the next five years, 170 million jobs are projected to be created and 92 million jobs to be displaced, constituting a structural labour market churn of 22% of the 1.2 billion formal jobs in the dataset being studied. This amounts to a net employment increase of 7%, or 78 million jobs."Back home in India too, this transformation is disrupting traditional sectors and creating new opportunities across various industries.Former Nasscom chairman and Cyient founder chairman BVR Mohan Reddy said technology is making such rapid strides that what you consider as
future
skills today may not be relevant even six months or nine months down the line.THE SKILL & TALENT GAPThe biggest worry for industry today is the yawning skill gap across sectors, as per experts.
According to Balasubramanian A, senior vice president, TeamLease Staffing, while there's a critical shortage of skilled machine operators, supply chain analysts, and technicians with automation/IoT exposure in the manufacturing and logistics, healthcare needs an additional 6.5 lakh nurses and midwives and 1.6 lakh doctors by 2030 to meet the threshold of 34.5 skilled health workers per 10,000 population.He also pointed to how the retail and BFSI (banking, financial services and insurance) sectors are struggling due to limited availability of digitally-savvy sales executives and relationship managers and the construction sector will require approximately 100 million workers by 2030, including 33 million with specialised skills.TECH AND AIThe IT and digital sector faces scarcity of full-stack developers, cloud specialists, and AI/ML engineers, with India requiring one million cybersecurity professionals by 2027, according to TeamLease.Take just artificial intelligence (AI) for instance, where India is witnessing an unprecedented demand but supply is lagging by over 50%, said Krishna Vij, vice president, Teamlease Digital.
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"India currently has around 4.2 lakh AI professionals, while the demand stands at 6-6.5 lakh. By 2027, the need for AI professionals is expected to reach 1.3 million. This widening skills gap is driving companies to actively seek fresh talent, particularly for roles in AI, machine learning, and data science," she added.Vij pointed out that with AI roles expected to double by 2027, today's students have a unique opportunity to future-proof their careers by acquiring skills in AI, machine learning (ML), data science, and cloud technologies.TECH SKILLS, ROTE LEARNING NO LONGER KEYExperts point out that the transformation is not just about skilling and upskilling but about fundamentally rethinking how work is done with focus on developing technical and soft skills while maintaining awareness of industry-specific compliance requirements.The future workforce needs to be adaptable, tech-savvy, and capable of continuous learning to remain relevant in an ever-evolving job market."If somebody came and asked me a question, say 10 years or five years back, asking what should my kid do in college? I used to give them a one size fits all answer – make him or her an engineer but that's not true any longer," Reddy said."Change has become constant at this point of time and the key lies in our ability to train our children to be adaptable to change and this adaptability will come when we start making sure that they start critically thinking about things, develop the ability to question the status quo and take risks in life. A student just mugging up concepts and vomiting them may do well in exams but will not stand in good stead in future. It's no longer about teaching programming language but about the ability to keep pace with change," Reddy added.Agreeing, Vij said: "India's workforce is at a pivotal moment. While we produce millions of graduates each year, there's a growing disconnect between what's taught and what industries actually need. Today's employers are looking for expertise in AI, data analytics, green technologies, and strong soft skills like adaptability and creative problem-solving. Unfortunately, many students still focus on outdated subjects or rote learning. To bridge this skill gap, we need to rethink our approach by encouraging students to pursue courses aligned with emerging fields and fostering industry-academia collaboration. Only then can India truly unlock its demographic dividend and compete globally.""It's critical for young learners to move beyond rote learning and embrace problem-solving, creativity, and interdisciplinary thinking. The future workforce needs to be tech-enabled, adaptable, and continuously upskilling to stay relevant. For high school students, early exposure to coding, data literacy, and design thinking can open doors to these emerging fields. Bridging this skills gap isn't just about jobs, it's about empowering a generation to lead India's digital and AI-driven growth," she added.SKILL GAP OVERRATED?But there are some like Prof Ramesh Loganathan of IIIT Hyderabad who feel the skill gap is an overrated problem. "Do you think many of these IT companies that do bulk hiring are hiring engineers because they need engineers? No, they're hiring engineers because with an engineering degree it's easier to get visas. They are hiring for two reasons: aptitude test results showing ability to learn and analyse, and the engineering degree's acceptability for visas and clients."Loganathan also lashed out at measures like CBSE introducing coding for school kids. "I don't agree with it as it's not a core skill. Understanding maths and fundamental sciences are core skills as are knowing English and social sciences. Understanding tools is important rather than knowing programming. Everybody is trying to ride the bandwagon."Agreeing, former Nasscom VP and independent advisor TS Viswanathan said the current academic system was designed in 2000 with Y2K in mind but now we are in the digitisation era where the talent pool requires skills beyond coding."We have perfected it, generating volumes of talent with coding skills with Y2K phenomena in mind. But the industry has moved from the solutioning phase to problem-solving phase that requires alternate skill sets beyond coding - ability to understand customers, business, critical analysis, critical questioning and thinking," Viswanathan explained.He pointed out that while some universities and premier institutes like IITs and NITs and IIITs are trying to solve the problem and move to a skilling based approach, most are still stuck with the old curriculum.THE GCC PERSPECTIVEIndia's GCC sector, employing 1.9 million people (roughly 50% in tech roles), is experiencing significant growth. Of these, about 6 lakh professionals are focussed on next-generation digital skills. With the sector projected to grow 25% annually over the next five years there will be demand for about 1.2 million people with skills such in agentic AI, cloud computing, data science, data analytics, among others, said Manoj Marwah, financial services GCC consulting leader, EY.As per estimates, the GCC sector in India, which has over 1700 GCCs, is projected to reach over 2400 GCCs with $100 billion by 2030."States like Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana that have got the largest chunk of private universities are still running with the old curriculum that was created for the year 2000. With about 3,000 GCCs expected to be set up in the next 10 years we need competencies that are beyond just delivery. We need soft skills and entrepreneurial skills, where there is a huge gap. While some have geared up it still takes an average nine months to a year to get the average graduate ready for the job. Can we reduce that to three months or 10 weeks? That's the task and the gap," said Viswanathan."Forget 2047, we need this by 2035 itself. If we don't produce the alternate kind of engineers required by the country there will be a gap not just for Viksit Bharat but for the global industry as well," Viswanathan added.FACULTY NEEDS TRAINING TOOViswanathan said the country needs a huge faculty training capacity with more institutions of higher education coming up. While way back in 1988 the National Institute of Technical Teachers Training and Research was set up in Chennai, industry needs to augment the gap in the reskilling of teachers if the country is to achieve its goal of Viksit Bharat by 2047.
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Also, any major disruption in West Asian oil and gas exports could lead to a surge in oil and gas prices in the international market, which would also hurt India, which is counted among the world's largest oil and gas importers with high import dependency levels. To be sure, the conflict has so far not really disrupted physical oil and gas flows from the region, although shipping and insurance rates have gone up notably due to higher geopolitical risk premium,according to industry sources. There are also reports that a few shipping lines are reassessing routes in the region. This could further add to the transportation cost to and from the region. As for oil prices, benchmark Brent crude was at $77 per barrel on Friday, its highest level in nearly five months. It is likely that oil prices will surge when the markets open Monday over the possibility of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. At May-end, Brent was languishing around $63 per barrel. But oil prices rose sharply with Israel and Iran entering into a military conflict over the past couple of weeks. However, despite some energy infrastructure being hit in the conflict over the past few days, the most critical oil and gas supply infrastructure in the region is reported to be safe and export routes open and functional. Energy industry insiders, trade sources, and experts appear largely unanimous in the view that the trajectory oil and gas supplies and prices take hereon amid this conflict would largely depend on whether the critical Strait of Hormuz will indeed be closed by Iran, and whether oil and gas export infrastructure in the region would remain largely unharmed. Strait of Hormuz: World's most critical energy trade choke point Strait of Hormuz is a critical narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, and connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) calls it the 'world's most important oil transit chokepoint', with around one-fifth of global liquid petroleum fuel consumption and global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade transiting the strait. Much of India's oil from key West Asian suppliers like Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE reaches Indian ports via the Strait of Hormuz. A bulk of India's LNG imports, which come predominantly from Qatar, also come through this vital choke point. India is the world's third-largest consumer of crude oil and depends on imports to meet over 85 per cent of its requirement. The country is also among the top importers of LNG, depending on imports to meet around half of its natural gas demand. India's largest source of crude oil is Russia, followed by West Asian suppliers Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. India also buys oil from other countries in the region like Kuwait, Qatar, and Oman. Indian refiners do not purchase Iranian crude as Iran's energy sector is under US sanctions. According to tanker data analysed by The Indian Express, nearly 47 per cent of crude oil imported by Indian refiners in May was likely to have been transported via the Strait of Hormuz. The importance of the chokepoint for India's energy supply and security cannot be understated. To be sure, Tehran has over the years made such threats at various points, but has never actually closed the strait even when it fought its worst wars. That is also because given the importance of the channel for global energy trade, any such attempt could draw a strong response from regional powers and even the US. Also, given that Iran itself depends on the Strait of Hormuz for its trade, particularly oil exports to China, any blockade could impact Tehran considerably, experts pointed out. 'First and foremost, such a blockade would disproportionately harm China, which sources 47% of its seaborne crude from the Middle East Gulf, including Iranian volumes. Iran's ability to maintain its sole major oil customer would be directly jeopardised. Additionally, Tehran has made deliberate efforts over the past two years to rebuild ties with key regional actors, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, both of which rely heavily on the Strait for exports and have publicly condemned Israel's actions. Sabotaging their flows would risk unraveling those diplomatic gains,' commodity market analytics firm Kpler said in a note on June 19. '…while the rhetoric may generate headlines, the fundamentals argue strongly against action,' the Kpler note said. 'It's really hard to tell, but I would say it's very unlikely for that (blockade of the Strait of Hormuz) to happen. And we've seen in the past, whenever there were indications or even threats that Iran might be doing this, you would hear statements from the US Fifth Fleet that they would immediately intervene and they would unblock the strait. Of course, it's something that we need to flag as a risk,' Kpler's head of Middle East energy & OPEC+ insights had said in a webinar last week. Hormuz closure will hurt energy import-dependent India Given the fact that the Iranian parliament has recommended the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the possibility cannot be dismissed. In fact, given that the regime in Tehran is perhaps fighting for survival, Iran might just attempt something that it has only threatened in the past. If the critical water channel indeed is closed by Iran, Bakr said oil prices, which have been rather subdued for a few months now, could jump to over $120 per barrel, or even touch $150. Apart from supply disruption for India, the surge in international energy prices due to any such blockade would hit India due to its heavy reliance on imported oil. This makes India's economy vulnerable to global oil price fluctuations. It also has a bearing on the country's trade deficit, foreign exchange reserves, the rupee's exchange rate, and inflation rate, among others. Major oil producers like Saudi Arabia and the UAE have some alternative infrastructure in the form of pipelines to bypass the Strait of Hormuz for oil exports, but to what extent that would help would depend on the extent of the disruption to exports via the strait. According to officials in India's refining sector, the prospect of elevated freight rates due to high risk premium for tankers passing through the strait would lead to higher landed price of oil and gas for them, but that would still be significantly better than runaway oil prices due to any major supply disruption, which would be nearly certain if the Strait of Hormuz is shut for oil tankers. Threat to West Asian oil exports: Price impact So far, Iranian oil export infrastructure doesn't appear to have been majorly hit by Israel, which is a relief for the energy markets and countries like India, even though they do not buy oil from Iran. This is because some Chinese refiners buy bulk Iranian oil and if Iran's oil exports are majorly impaired due to the conflict, these buyers will be forced to scout for oil from other sources, which could lead to higher oil prices. 'If Iranian crude exports are disrupted, Chinese refiners, the sole buyers of Iranian barrels—would need to seek alternative grades from other Middle Eastern countries and Russian crudes. This could also boost freight rates and tanker insurance premiums… and hurt refinery margins, particularly in Asia,' Richard Joswick, head of near-term oil analysis at S&P Global Commodity Insights, said in a note recently. While oil producers' cartel OPEC has significant spare production capacity that they can use in case of a major outage of Iranian oil exports, it is important to note that much of that is with other West Asian oil producers, which are located in the broader Israel-Iran conflict zone. According to industry watchers, this spare capacity will only be helpful if other oil producers in the region are able to export to the rest of the world effectively. And that would have two key prerequisites—their own oil production and export infrastructure remains unharmed and the Strait of Hormuz remains open and safe for energy trade. Sukalp Sharma is a Senior Assistant Editor with The Indian Express and writes on a host of subjects and sectors, notably energy and aviation. He has over 13 years of experience in journalism with a body of work spanning areas like politics, development, equity markets, corporates, trade, and economic policy. He considers himself an above-average photographer, which goes well with his love for travel. ... Read More
