Iranian parliament recommends Strait of Hormuz closure: What may be in store for energy markets, India's oil imports
Following US airstrikes at Iranian nuclear facilities, Iran's parliament Sunday approved a motion calling for the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil transit choke point in global energy flows. To be sure, it is up to Iran's Supreme National Security Council to decide on whether or not to go ahead to try and choke the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran has in the past threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz on multiple occasions, but has never actually done it. Notwithstanding that, the heightened risk of the closure is bound to raise concerns globally, including in India, particularly with regard to oil and gas supply security, and could lead to a jump in energy prices.
The global energy market has had its eyes set on the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict as the West Asian region is a critical cog in the international oil and gas flows. Indian refiners, too, have been watching the developments closely as the region accounts for a significant share of India's energy imports. Also, any major disruption in West Asian oil and gas exports could lead to a surge in oil and gas prices in the international market, which would also hurt India, which is counted among the world's largest oil and gas importers with high import dependency levels.
To be sure, the conflict has so far not really disrupted physical oil and gas flows from the region, although shipping and insurance rates have gone up notably due to higher geopolitical risk premium,according to industry sources. There are also reports that a few shipping lines are reassessing routes in the region. This could further add to the transportation cost to and from the region.
As for oil prices, benchmark Brent crude was at $77 per barrel on Friday, its highest level in nearly five months. It is likely that oil prices will surge when the markets open Monday over the possibility of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. At May-end, Brent was languishing around $63 per barrel. But oil prices rose sharply with Israel and Iran entering into a military conflict over the past couple of weeks. However, despite some energy infrastructure being hit in the conflict over the past few days, the most critical oil and gas supply infrastructure in the region is reported to be safe and export routes open and functional.
Energy industry insiders, trade sources, and experts appear largely unanimous in the view that the trajectory oil and gas supplies and prices take hereon amid this conflict would largely depend on whether the critical Strait of Hormuz will indeed be closed by Iran, and whether oil and gas export infrastructure in the region would remain largely unharmed.
Strait of Hormuz: World's most critical energy trade choke point
Strait of Hormuz is a critical narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, and connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) calls it the 'world's most important oil transit chokepoint', with around one-fifth of global liquid petroleum fuel consumption and global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade transiting the strait. Much of India's oil from key West Asian suppliers like Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE reaches Indian ports via the Strait of Hormuz. A bulk of India's LNG imports, which come predominantly from Qatar, also come through this vital choke point.
India is the world's third-largest consumer of crude oil and depends on imports to meet over 85 per cent of its requirement. The country is also among the top importers of LNG, depending on imports to meet around half of its natural gas demand. India's largest source of crude oil is Russia, followed by West Asian suppliers Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. India also buys oil from other countries in the region like Kuwait, Qatar, and Oman. Indian refiners do not purchase Iranian crude as Iran's energy sector is under US sanctions.
According to tanker data analysed by The Indian Express, nearly 47 per cent of crude oil imported by Indian refiners in May was likely to have been transported via the Strait of Hormuz. The importance of the chokepoint for India's energy supply and security cannot be understated.
To be sure, Tehran has over the years made such threats at various points, but has never actually closed the strait even when it fought its worst wars. That is also because given the importance of the channel for global energy trade, any such attempt could draw a strong response from regional powers and even the US. Also, given that Iran itself depends on the Strait of Hormuz for its trade, particularly oil exports to China, any blockade could impact Tehran considerably, experts pointed out.
'First and foremost, such a blockade would disproportionately harm China, which sources 47% of its seaborne crude from the Middle East Gulf, including Iranian volumes. Iran's ability to maintain its sole major oil customer would be directly jeopardised. Additionally, Tehran has made deliberate efforts over the past two years to rebuild ties with key regional actors, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, both of which rely heavily on the Strait for exports and have publicly condemned Israel's actions. Sabotaging their flows would risk unraveling those diplomatic gains,' commodity market analytics firm Kpler said in a note on June 19.
'…while the rhetoric may generate headlines, the fundamentals argue strongly against action,' the Kpler note said.
'It's really hard to tell, but I would say it's very unlikely for that (blockade of the Strait of Hormuz) to happen. And we've seen in the past, whenever there were indications or even threats that Iran might be doing this, you would hear statements from the US Fifth Fleet that they would immediately intervene and they would unblock the strait. Of course, it's something that we need to flag as a risk,' Kpler's head of Middle East energy & OPEC+ insights had said in a webinar last week.
Hormuz closure will hurt energy import-dependent India
Given the fact that the Iranian parliament has recommended the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the possibility cannot be dismissed. In fact, given that the regime in Tehran is perhaps fighting for survival, Iran might just attempt something that it has only threatened in the past.
If the critical water channel indeed is closed by Iran, Bakr said oil prices, which have been rather subdued for a few months now, could jump to over $120 per barrel, or even touch $150. Apart from supply disruption for India, the surge in international energy prices due to any such blockade would hit India due to its heavy reliance on imported oil. This makes India's economy vulnerable to global oil price fluctuations. It also has a bearing on the country's trade deficit, foreign exchange reserves, the rupee's exchange rate, and inflation rate, among others.
Major oil producers like Saudi Arabia and the UAE have some alternative infrastructure in the form of pipelines to bypass the Strait of Hormuz for oil exports, but to what extent that would help would depend on the extent of the disruption to exports via the strait.
According to officials in India's refining sector, the prospect of elevated freight rates due to high risk premium for tankers passing through the strait would lead to higher landed price of oil and gas for them, but that would still be significantly better than runaway oil prices due to any major supply disruption, which would be nearly certain if the Strait of Hormuz is shut for oil tankers.
Threat to West Asian oil exports: Price impact
So far, Iranian oil export infrastructure doesn't appear to have been majorly hit by Israel, which is a relief for the energy markets and countries like India, even though they do not buy oil from Iran. This is because some Chinese refiners buy bulk Iranian oil and if Iran's oil exports are majorly impaired due to the conflict, these buyers will be forced to scout for oil from other sources, which could lead to higher oil prices.
'If Iranian crude exports are disrupted, Chinese refiners, the sole buyers of Iranian barrels—would need to seek alternative grades from other Middle Eastern countries and Russian crudes. This could also boost freight rates and tanker insurance premiums… and hurt refinery margins, particularly in Asia,' Richard Joswick, head of near-term oil analysis at S&P Global Commodity Insights, said in a note recently.
While oil producers' cartel OPEC has significant spare production capacity that they can use in case of a major outage of Iranian oil exports, it is important to note that much of that is with other West Asian oil producers, which are located in the broader Israel-Iran conflict zone. According to industry watchers, this spare capacity will only be helpful if other oil producers in the region are able to export to the rest of the world effectively. And that would have two key prerequisites—their own oil production and export infrastructure remains unharmed and the Strait of Hormuz remains open and safe for energy trade.
Sukalp Sharma is a Senior Assistant Editor with The Indian Express and writes on a host of subjects and sectors, notably energy and aviation. He has over 13 years of experience in journalism with a body of work spanning areas like politics, development, equity markets, corporates, trade, and economic policy. He considers himself an above-average photographer, which goes well with his love for travel. ... Read More
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