Warmer than normal summer ahead, preparing for severe weather in Simcoe County
The City of Barrie has a haze over it as wildfires burn across Ontario and Quebec. (CTV News Barrie)
After a cool spring season, Environment and Climate Change Canada released their summer forecast on June 1; the official start of the meteorological summer season.
Meteorologists are predicting that Ontario will see above normal temperatures for the months of June, July, and August.
Geoff Coulson, warning preparedness meteorologist for Environment Canada, said the warmer weather could possibly bring more thunderstorm activity to the Simcoe County region.
'In addition to the warmth that it brings, it also brings a fair amount of humidity and that low level moisture in the atmosphere is one of the key ingredients that we look for in the development of, thunderstorm activity,' said Coulson.
Preparing for severe weather conditions:
Coulson added that residents need to be prepared for severe weather including tornadoes, thunderstorms, hail, heavy rain and wind.
'Stay, informed on what the current forecast is for your area, if you're planning travel, it's checking the forecast enroute and at your destination because it can be highly changeable from where you are right now to where you're going,' said Coulson.
Central Ontario is no stranger to severe weather with the community remembering the 40th anniversary of the 1985 tornado on May 31.
Dr. David Sills, executive director of Northern Tornadoes Project at Western University said the beginning of May is when the region starts to see tornadoes.
'We've had tornadoes in British Columbia, Alberta, Manitoba, Ontario and Quebec so far,' said Sills 'Eight tornadoes in total so far in the season that's just a bit up from the six we had at this time last season.'
Severe Weather
Storm clouds brew over Highway 400 between Midland and Barrie July 8, 2013. (Katherine Ward / CTV Barrie)
Tornado data:
Thanks to a climatology study released this year, experts now have data on how many tornadoes have touched the ground over the last 30 years.
'Ontario is now the number one province for tornado occurrence at 18.4 tornadoes per year,' said Sills. Barrie and the surrounding region are known to have significantly more tornados than other areas of the country.
'That's actually, a byproduct of having the Great Lakes around us,' said Sills. 'The tornadoes, thunderstorms don't tend to form over the Great Lakes as much so that leads to this corridor roughly from Sarnia to Barrie, to Ottawa, and then to Quebec City, so Barrie is right in the middle of that alley and seen its fair share of serious tornadoes.'
Coulson said over the last 15 years, severe weather has shifted east of Lake Simcoe but now enough data has been collected to say Ontario's tornado alley is shifting.
'I think it's a little too early to say whether we're seeing a movement eastward, of where this axis of strongest storms is occurring,' said Coulson. 'So, we're going to have to keep a close eye of where this activity is occurring over the next few years to get a better sense of... are we seeing a trend in the in the motion of where most of these storms are occurring.'
Barrie tornado May 31, 1985
Barrie tornado May 31, 1985
Here's how wildfires impact weather:
Wildfire season has started this year with Western Canada already experiencing severe cases.
The smoke from the wildfires may also have an impact on the severe weather in Ontario.
'It is quite possible if we do have an active wildfire season, some of that smoke will find its way down into the Barrie area, and that can, can act to inhibit some of the formation of thunderstorms,' said Coulson.
Sills adding that the smoke eliminates the potential for severe weather.
'When you have that much smoke in the atmosphere, it tends to cut off the sunlight getting through and without that sunlight, you're not reaching your daytime maximum high temperatures,' said Sills. 'The energy for thunderstorms isn't quite there and if they do form, they're not as intense.
The effects that wildfire smoke has and its relation to severe weather are now starting to be studied. The technology has also changed how storms are being tracked and recorded with newer technology allowing meteorologists to stay ahead of severe storms.
'We continue to use things like lightning detection capability, which can track, changes in lightning activity, which is now been linked to, potential development of severe storms as the lightning frequency changes,' said Coulson.
Wildfire
A wildfire is shown in this undated image.
Public awareness:
Sills adding that with new technology and a raised awareness of severe weather has a positive impact on the public.
'We noticed that the number of fatalities and injuries associated with tornadoes has gone way down, so obviously there's something good happening, and that I think is mostly due to people's awareness of tornadoes and what to do when tornadoes are forecast or there's a warning,' said Sills.
Severe weather watches are now being sent out to the public hours in advance of the system reaching the area in hopes the public acts on them before an actual warning is put in place later in the day.
'The idea with the tornado watch is it gets out six hours before the event could happen,' said Sills. 'It's not saying that a tornado will happen says the ingredients are there, that it could happen so that's the time to prepare for, a tornado possibility.'
Adding that having a plan to stay ahead is the right thing to do.
Closing all windows and doors, tie down outdoor furniture and trampolines,' said Sills. 'Have a plan if a tornado warning is issued, where to go in the house, what supplies you have with you.'
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