An Intrinsic Calculation For Belden Inc. (NYSE:BDC) Suggests It's 24% Undervalued
Belden's estimated fair value is US$141 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
Current share price of US$107 suggests Belden is potentially 24% undervalued
Analyst price target for BDC is US$127 which is 9.7% below our fair value estimate
In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Belden Inc. (NYSE:BDC) by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.
We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.
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We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
Levered FCF ($, Millions)
US$247.7m
US$268.9m
US$292.5m
US$311.0m
US$327.5m
US$342.5m
US$356.5m
US$369.9m
US$382.9m
US$395.6m
Growth Rate Estimate Source
Analyst x1
Analyst x1
Analyst x1
Est @ 6.31%
Est @ 5.30%
Est @ 4.59%
Est @ 4.10%
Est @ 3.75%
Est @ 3.51%
Est @ 3.34%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 8.3%
US$229
US$229
US$230
US$226
US$220
US$213
US$204
US$196
US$187
US$179
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$2.1b
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.9%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 8.3%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$396m× (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (8.3%– 2.9%) = US$7.6b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$7.6b÷ ( 1 + 8.3%)10= US$3.4b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$5.6b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$107, the company appears a touch undervalued at a 24% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Belden as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.3%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.233. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Check out our latest analysis for Belden
Strength
Debt is well covered by earnings and cashflows.
Weakness
Earnings declined over the past year.
Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Electronic market.
Opportunity
Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 3 years.
Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
Threat
Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the American market.
Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For Belden, we've compiled three essential elements you should assess:
Risks: For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Belden that you should be aware of before investing here.
Future Earnings: How does BDC's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NYSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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