Is the US in a debt-fueled national death spiral?
My Albanian-born father-in-law was an American patriot. In the mid-20th century, he served for decades as a CIA operative, quietly fighting against the spread of communism in Europe and Southeast Asia.
Before his death at age 92, he lamented America's future, saying, 'I'm glad I won't be around to see the end.' Long before the U.S. was on the brink of World War III, I shared his bittersweet pessimism, prompted by the 'death spiral math' found on the U.S. Debt Clock.
The 'clock' ticks real-time government data showing the ever-growing national debt — $36.9 trillion as of this writing — the most owed by any country or empire in human history.
Nonetheless, this decades-long travesty of overspending, attributed to presidents from both parties, is still manageable if the U.S. gross domestic product — estimated at $29.2 trillion in 2024 — were to exceed the nearly $37 trillion national debt. At least, that is the economic theory recently espoused by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who stated, 'If the economy grows faster than the debt, we stabilize the country.'
Bessent's philosophy of 'we can grow our way out of debt' supports adding an estimated $3.3 trillion to the national debt, according to the Congressional Budget Office, if President Trump's 'Big, Beautiful Bill' were to become law.
Cue the laugh track, because Bessent's growth fantasy is a joke when viewed through the lens of history and facts. The national debt has exceeded GDP since 2013, and the Debt Clock shows the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio today at 123 percent. Reducing that unwieldy ratio requires a sustained economic boom not seen since the decades following World War II.
In 1946, due to five years of war, the debt-to-GDP ratio reached a record 119 percent. If that upside-down ratio had persisted, it is unlikely that the U.S. would have maintained its global superpower status.
Fortunately, America managed to climb its way out of debt through sustained post-war growth. Fueled by national optimism, the country experienced a significant baby boom that spurred unprecedented suburban expansion. The development of a national highway system, coast-to-coast new infrastructure and technological advancements coincided with the rise of consumerism, driven by wartime pent-up demand.
By 1966, after 20 years of growth (with a few dips), the debt-to-GDP ratio decreased to 40 percent. Then, in 1974, with the Vietnam War winding down, the U.S. achieved its lowest post-war debt-to-GDP ratio of 31 percent, hitting that amount again in 1981 for the last time.
After that, the debt-to-GDP ratio continued its dramatic climb. Does anyone honestly believe that Trump's 'Golden Age of America' policies will stimulate levels of explosive growth needed to reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio from 123 percent to double digits?
Bessent's 'we can grow our way out of debt' wish-casting could easily be thwarted, starting with Trump's trade war. Then add untamed inflation, an aging population, ongoing global crises, natural disasters, supply-chain issues, AI's unpredictable impact and Trump's self-inflicted scientific brain drain resulting from cuts to research funding. Moreover, a shortage of highly skilled tech workers, the fallout from Trump's immigration policy, and economic uncertainty all contribute to slow growth, while government spending remains unchecked.
No wonder the World Bank recently issued new economic projections contradicting Bessent's optimism. In 2024, the U.S. economy grew by 2.8 percent. However, for 2025, the World Bank's initial downward forecast of 1.8 percent growth has again been revised to 1.4 percent. It appears that Trump's Golden Age is only mining 'fool's gold.' Especially when, according to the Debt Clock's 'time machine,' the debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to reach 140 percent by 2029 — the year Trump leaves office.
Most Americans don't know that the two largest federal expenditures are Medicaid and Medicare, totaling nearly $1.7 trillion, followed by Social Security at $1.5 trillion, according to the Debt Clock. Cuts to these massive programs are inevitable and will be painful, while Americans have a low tolerance for pain and sacrifice. Yet, that is the future.
On the tax receipt side, the Debt Clock displays $5.1 trillion in revenue, relatively small compared to the $36.9 trillion national debt. This debt has risen so rapidly that interest has reached $1.03 trillion — the third-largest item in the federal budget. Debt service now exceeds defense spending, the fourth-largest expenditure at $907.7 billion. That little-known budget factor arose last year.
In February, Niall Ferguson, a Hoover Institution fellow, wrote a stunning paper titled 'Ferguson's Law: Debt Service, Military Spending, and the Fiscal Limits of Power.' His 'law' states, 'Any great power that spends more on debt servicing than on defense risks ceasing to be a great power.' Ferguson argues that 'the debt burden draws scarce resources towards itself, reducing the amount available for national security, and leaving the power increasingly vulnerable to military challenge.' He cites numerous historical references to support his theory.
For the optimists, Ferguson writes, 'it is very rare but not unprecedented for a great power to return to the right side of the Ferguson limit.' Thus, there is hope for our nation, but hope does not reverse the current death spiral of spending more on debt service than on defense.
War is expensive, and the debt crisis will intensify as the U.S. edges closer to direct involvement in a Middle East conflict, which could easily widen. Our enemies are keenly aware of America's economic vulnerabilities. More defense spending means more borrowing and, eventually, the U.S. could cease to be a great power, according to Ferguson's Law.
Meanwhile, proposed reductions to the two largest federal budget entitlements cited above elicited angry jeers from town hall participants, such as 'cuts will cause people to die.' To which Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) retorted, 'Well, we are all going to die.'
But unlike my late father-in-law, many of us reading this might be around to see the end.
Myra Adams is an opinion writer who served on the creative team of two Republican presidential campaigns in 2004 and 2008.
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