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The Hill
22 minutes ago
- Business
- The Hill
Is the US in a debt-fueled national death spiral?
My Albanian-born father-in-law was an American patriot. In the mid-20th century, he served for decades as a CIA operative, quietly fighting against the spread of communism in Europe and Southeast Asia. Before his death at age 92, he lamented America's future, saying, 'I'm glad I won't be around to see the end.' Long before the U.S. was on the brink of World War III, I shared his bittersweet pessimism, prompted by the 'death spiral math' found on the U.S. Debt Clock. The 'clock' ticks real-time government data showing the ever-growing national debt — $36.9 trillion as of this writing — the most owed by any country or empire in human history. Nonetheless, this decades-long travesty of overspending, attributed to presidents from both parties, is still manageable if the U.S. gross domestic product — estimated at $29.2 trillion in 2024 — were to exceed the nearly $37 trillion national debt. At least, that is the economic theory recently espoused by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who stated, 'If the economy grows faster than the debt, we stabilize the country.' Bessent's philosophy of 'we can grow our way out of debt' supports adding an estimated $3.3 trillion to the national debt, according to the Congressional Budget Office, if President Trump's 'Big, Beautiful Bill' were to become law. Cue the laugh track, because Bessent's growth fantasy is a joke when viewed through the lens of history and facts. The national debt has exceeded GDP since 2013, and the Debt Clock shows the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio today at 123 percent. Reducing that unwieldy ratio requires a sustained economic boom not seen since the decades following World War II. In 1946, due to five years of war, the debt-to-GDP ratio reached a record 119 percent. If that upside-down ratio had persisted, it is unlikely that the U.S. would have maintained its global superpower status. Fortunately, America managed to climb its way out of debt through sustained post-war growth. Fueled by national optimism, the country experienced a significant baby boom that spurred unprecedented suburban expansion. The development of a national highway system, coast-to-coast new infrastructure and technological advancements coincided with the rise of consumerism, driven by wartime pent-up demand. By 1966, after 20 years of growth (with a few dips), the debt-to-GDP ratio decreased to 40 percent. Then, in 1974, with the Vietnam War winding down, the U.S. achieved its lowest post-war debt-to-GDP ratio of 31 percent, hitting that amount again in 1981 for the last time. After that, the debt-to-GDP ratio continued its dramatic climb. Does anyone honestly believe that Trump's 'Golden Age of America' policies will stimulate levels of explosive growth needed to reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio from 123 percent to double digits? Bessent's 'we can grow our way out of debt' wish-casting could easily be thwarted, starting with Trump's trade war. Then add untamed inflation, an aging population, ongoing global crises, natural disasters, supply-chain issues, AI's unpredictable impact and Trump's self-inflicted scientific brain drain resulting from cuts to research funding. Moreover, a shortage of highly skilled tech workers, the fallout from Trump's immigration policy, and economic uncertainty all contribute to slow growth, while government spending remains unchecked. No wonder the World Bank recently issued new economic projections contradicting Bessent's optimism. In 2024, the U.S. economy grew by 2.8 percent. However, for 2025, the World Bank's initial downward forecast of 1.8 percent growth has again been revised to 1.4 percent. It appears that Trump's Golden Age is only mining 'fool's gold.' Especially when, according to the Debt Clock's 'time machine,' the debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to reach 140 percent by 2029 — the year Trump leaves office. Most Americans don't know that the two largest federal expenditures are Medicaid and Medicare, totaling nearly $1.7 trillion, followed by Social Security at $1.5 trillion, according to the Debt Clock. Cuts to these massive programs are inevitable and will be painful, while Americans have a low tolerance for pain and sacrifice. Yet, that is the future. On the tax receipt side, the Debt Clock displays $5.1 trillion in revenue, relatively small compared to the $36.9 trillion national debt. This debt has risen so rapidly that interest has reached $1.03 trillion — the third-largest item in the federal budget. Debt service now exceeds defense spending, the fourth-largest expenditure at $907.7 billion. That little-known budget factor arose last year. In February, Niall Ferguson, a Hoover Institution fellow, wrote a stunning paper titled 'Ferguson's Law: Debt Service, Military Spending, and the Fiscal Limits of Power.' His 'law' states, 'Any great power that spends more on debt servicing than on defense risks ceasing to be a great power.' Ferguson argues that 'the debt burden draws scarce resources towards itself, reducing the amount available for national security, and leaving the power increasingly vulnerable to military challenge.' He cites numerous historical references to support his theory. For the optimists, Ferguson writes, 'it is very rare but not unprecedented for a great power to return to the right side of the Ferguson limit.' Thus, there is hope for our nation, but hope does not reverse the current death spiral of spending more on debt service than on defense. War is expensive, and the debt crisis will intensify as the U.S. edges closer to direct involvement in a Middle East conflict, which could easily widen. Our enemies are keenly aware of America's economic vulnerabilities. More defense spending means more borrowing and, eventually, the U.S. could cease to be a great power, according to Ferguson's Law. Meanwhile, proposed reductions to the two largest federal budget entitlements cited above elicited angry jeers from town hall participants, such as 'cuts will cause people to die.' To which Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) retorted, 'Well, we are all going to die.' But unlike my late father-in-law, many of us reading this might be around to see the end. Myra Adams is an opinion writer who served on the creative team of two Republican presidential campaigns in 2004 and 2008.
Scotsman
5 hours ago
- Entertainment
- Scotsman
Susan Morrison: Now hear this – not everyone loves your music choice on the bus
Health app warning - loud music is bad for your fellow passengers! Your ear wax is either dry or runny and it's genetic. Worth remembering if you remove the foam covers on your headphones to peer into the earbuds, which I did last week. Sign up to our daily newsletter Sign up Thank you for signing up! Did you know with a Digital Subscription to Edinburgh News, you can get unlimited access to the website including our premium content, as well as benefiting from fewer ads, loyalty rewards and much more. Learn More Sorry, there seem to be some issues. Please try again later. Submitting... Seriously. So much gunk. No wonder Fleetwood Mac sounded underwater. Other people clearly knew about this. They've seen the secret horror of the earbud. It has traumatised them so much that they've abandoned headphones altogether. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad You can see and hear these victims of the yellow peril on just about every Lothian Bus. Headphones are a luxury they feel they can't afford. They must enjoy their internet fix of fast moving content unplugged, as it were. Fortunately this has the happy side effect of opening up new avenues of listening pleasure to all the other passengers. I wasn't familiar with the song 'WAP', although the word 'song' is doing a lot of heavy lifting there. The lyrics are best described as 'adult themed'. Not a sure fire hit for the family singing at Hogmanay, perhaps, but there it was, being blasted out on the Number 7 by a pair of 12-year-olds. For some, earbud phobia goes hand-in-hand with the terror of holding the phone apparatus to the actual ear. Perhaps, in a Howard Huges sort of a way, they dread possible infection from bacteria. These victims are forced to hold their phones at arms length and shout at the screen, usually during a long conversation with someone very far away. The absence of headphones means that the volume must be maintained at ear-splitting volume. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad These tragic sufferers of these hidden horrors deserve the same level of compassion we once extended to those early victims of the sound-bleeding headphone years, the sad people oblivious to the fact that the whump-whump of heavy metal was landing like a CIA interrogation technique on the folk around them. We were patient. To a point. And then we told them. We were direct, but kind. Sometimes. So now I say, kindly, come on, people, be courageous. Brave the horror of the waxy bud. Plug in and tune in. Save us all earwigging your conversations and dodgy tunes.
7 hours ago
- Business
Democrats in Virginia have a hefty fundraising advantage heading into November general election
RICHMOND, Va. -- Democrats in Virginia have built up a hefty fundraising advantage for their effort to reclaim the governor's mansion in a November election that is seen as a bellwether for the party in power in Washington ahead of the 2026 midterms. Democrat Abigail Spanberger, a former CIA spy turned congresswoman, has a more than 2-to-1 fundraising advantage over her GOP opponent for governor, Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, who has struggled to draw support from her fellow Republicans. Both were unopposed for their party's nominations and were able to focus on the fall general election without having to overcome a challenge in this week's primaries. The match-up means Virginia is all but certain to elect the state's first female governor. Spanberger has amassed $6.5 million toward her campaign for governor over the last two months after raising $6.7 million between January and March, according to the nonpartisan Virginia Public Access Project. Combined with the money Spanberger raised in 2024, she has gathered $22.8 million and still has $14.3 million in her coffers. Earle-Sears, meanwhile, spent more than she earned between April and June, bringing in $3.5 million and spending $4.6 million. Between January and March, she also raised a little over $3.1 million. In total, she has raked in nearly $9.2 million since launching her campaign last September. Now, she has a little under $3 million in the bank, according to Virginia Public Access Project data. In a statement, Earle-Sears' campaign said the candidate is putting forward a message for Virginians that money can't buy. 'Clearly the Spanberger campaign needs a lot of help attempting to erase Abigail's bad voting record on issues that actually matter to Virginians," press secretary Peyton Vogel said in an email. 'This race isn't being bought — it's being built on a message that matters.' Virginia is one of two states, along with New Jersey, that host statewide elections this year. The contests will be closely watched as a measure of whether voters in the shadow of Washington will embrace President Donald Trump's aggressive effort to overhaul the federal government, or be repelled by it. Democrats' outsized fundraising lead ahead of the primaries may reflect local Democratic enthusiasm and the party's ability to push people to the polls in light of Trump being in office. Mark J. Rozell, dean of George Mason University's Schar School of Policy and Government, also referenced the noticeable frostiness among leading state Republicans. The party's statewide nominees have yet to campaign together, despite securing their nominations at the end of April. 'Enthusiasm drives fundraising and in Virginia right now the Democrats' voting base has much greater enthusiasm' than Republicans, Rozell said. 'It is reminiscent of Trump's first term in office when Democratic fundraising and ultimately voting overwhelmed the Republicans in Virginia.' Money does not guarantee success, however. In the last Virginia governor's race, former Gov. Terry McAuliffe outspent Republican Glenn Youngkin, who had invested $20 million of his own money in the race. Youngkin still clinched the election by nearly two points. Youngkin, who is term-limited from seeking reelection, has offered more than $21,000 in support to Earle-Sears through his political action committee. When asked whether he would donate more, his PAC responded, 'Governor Youngkin is working to elect the entire GOP ticket and is urging all Virginians to support the commonsense team this November to keep Virginia winning.' The Democrats' fundraising advantage isn't confined to the governor's race. State Sen. Ghazala Hashmi, who eked out a primary win in a close three-way contest for lieutenant governor, raised nearly $1.8 million in her primary race and has $462,000 remaining. The Republican nominee, conservative talk-radio host John Reid, raised nearly $312,000 since launching his campaign and has $116,000 remaining. The only statewide GOP candidate with a fundraising lead, incumbent Attorney General Jason Miyares, has $2.3 million in the bank after raising a total of $4.6 million. His Democratic opponent, Jay Jones, has raised $2.7 million. He had about $493,000 left at the beginning of June, reports show. This year, all three Democratic statewide candidates are backed by Clean Virginia, a political group that pushes for clean energy and often takes on legislative challenges against Dominion Energy, Virginia's largest utility. The two groups are some of the most influential entities lobbying on state politics and policy. With energy demand likely to be a key issue in November, their influence could be significant. According to the nonpartisan public-access group, Spanberger has taken in $465,000 from the environmental organization. On Tuesday, Clean Virginia endorsed Hashmi's candidacy for lieutenant governor, following its previous donations to her state Senate campaign committee. During his campaign, Jones also received $1.5 million from Clean Virginia, while his primary opponent, Democrat Shannon Taylor, accepted $800,000 from Dominion Energy between 2024 and 2025. Clean Virginia released attack ads targeting Taylor for accepting Dominion money. The energy utility has become entangled in other statewide battles. On the Republican ticket, Earle-Sears accepted $50,000 from Dominion in March. Miyares also gained $450,000 from the utility so far this year. Clean Virginia has donated to both Democrats and Republicans, including to candidates running for the House of Delegates, where all 100 members are up for reelection in November. Democrats who control the legislature are hoping to keep or expand their thin majority and amend the state's Constitution to protect rights to voting, marriage equality and abortion. Democratic candidates have raised about $16.9 million in those races, with $3.2 million stemming from House Speaker Don Scott. Meanwhile, Republicans have raised $8.8 million, with former Minority Leader Todd Gilbert earning over $643,000, and newly tapped Minority Leader Terry Kilgore raising nearly $470,000. ———
San Francisco Chronicle
7 hours ago
- Business
- San Francisco Chronicle
Democrats in Virginia have a hefty fundraising advantage heading into November general election
RICHMOND, Va. (AP) — Democrats in Virginia have built up a hefty fundraising advantage for their effort to reclaim the governor's mansion in a November election that is seen as a bellwether for the party in power in Washington ahead of the 2026 midterms. Democrat Abigail Spanberger, a former CIA spy turned congresswoman, has a more than 2-to-1 fundraising advantage over her GOP opponent for governor, Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, who has struggled to draw support from her fellow Republicans. Both were unopposed for their party's nominations and were able to focus on the fall general election without having to overcome a challenge in this week's primaries. The match-up means Virginia is all but certain to elect the state's first female governor. Spanberger has amassed $6.5 million toward her campaign for governor over the last two months after raising $6.7 million between January and March, according to the nonpartisan Virginia Public Access Project. Combined with the money Spanberger raised in 2024, she has gathered $22.8 million and still has $14.3 million in her coffers. Earle-Sears, meanwhile, spent more than she earned between April and June, bringing in $3.5 million and spending $4.6 million. Between January and March, she also raised a little over $3.1 million. In total, she has raked in nearly $9.2 million since launching her campaign last September. Now, she has a little under $3 million in the bank, according to Virginia Public Access Project data. In a statement, Earle-Sears' campaign said the candidate is putting forward a message for Virginians that money can't buy. 'Clearly the Spanberger campaign needs a lot of help attempting to erase Abigail's bad voting record on issues that actually matter to Virginians," press secretary Peyton Vogel said in an email. 'This race isn't being bought — it's being built on a message that matters.' Virginia is one of two states, along with New Jersey, that host statewide elections this year. The contests will be closely watched as a measure of whether voters in the shadow of Washington will embrace President Donald Trump's aggressive effort to overhaul the federal government, or be repelled by it. Democrats' outsized fundraising lead ahead of the primaries may reflect local Democratic enthusiasm and the party's ability to push people to the polls in light of Trump being in office. Mark J. Rozell, dean of George Mason University's Schar School of Policy and Government, also referenced the noticeable frostiness among leading state Republicans. The party's statewide nominees have yet to campaign together, despite securing their nominations at the end of April. 'Enthusiasm drives fundraising and in Virginia right now the Democrats' voting base has much greater enthusiasm' than Republicans, Rozell said. 'It is reminiscent of Trump's first term in office when Democratic fundraising and ultimately voting overwhelmed the Republicans in Virginia.' Money does not guarantee success, however. In the last Virginia governor's race, former Gov. Terry McAuliffe outspent Republican Glenn Youngkin, who had invested $20 million of his own money in the race. Youngkin still clinched the election by nearly two points. Youngkin, who is term-limited from seeking reelection, has offered more than $21,000 in support to Earle-Sears through his political action committee. When asked whether he would donate more, his PAC responded, 'Governor Youngkin is working to elect the entire GOP ticket and is urging all Virginians to support the commonsense team this November to keep Virginia winning.' The Democrats' fundraising advantage isn't confined to the governor's race. State Sen. Ghazala Hashmi, who eked out a primary win in a close three-way contest for lieutenant governor, raised nearly $1.8 million in her primary race and has $462,000 remaining. The Republican nominee, conservative talk-radio host John Reid, raised nearly $312,000 since launching his campaign and has $116,000 remaining. The only statewide GOP candidate with a fundraising lead, incumbent Attorney General Jason Miyares, has $2.3 million in the bank after raising a total of $4.6 million. His Democratic opponent, Jay Jones, has raised $2.7 million. He had about $493,000 left at the beginning of June, reports show. This year, all three Democratic statewide candidates are backed by Clean Virginia, a political group that pushes for clean energy and often takes on legislative challenges against Dominion Energy, Virginia's largest utility. The two groups are some of the most influential entities lobbying on state politics and policy. With energy demand likely to be a key issue in November, their influence could be significant. According to the nonpartisan public-access group, Spanberger has taken in $465,000 from the environmental organization. On Tuesday, Clean Virginia endorsed Hashmi's candidacy for lieutenant governor, following its previous donations to her state Senate campaign committee. During his campaign, Jones also received $1.5 million from Clean Virginia, while his primary opponent, Democrat Shannon Taylor, accepted $800,000 from Dominion Energy between 2024 and 2025. Clean Virginia released attack ads targeting Taylor for accepting Dominion money. The energy utility has become entangled in other statewide battles. On the Republican ticket, Earle-Sears accepted $50,000 from Dominion in March. Miyares also gained $450,000 from the utility so far this year. Clean Virginia has donated to both Democrats and Republicans, including to candidates running for the House of Delegates, where all 100 members are up for reelection in November. Democrats who control the legislature are hoping to keep or expand their thin majority and amend the state's Constitution to protect rights to voting, marriage equality and abortion. Democratic candidates have raised about $16.9 million in those races, with $3.2 million stemming from House Speaker Don Scott. ———
Time of India
7 hours ago
- Business
- Time of India
Democrats in Virginia have a hefty fundraising advantage heading into November general election
Democrats in Virginia have a hefty fundraising advantage heading into November general election (Image: AP) RICHMOND: Democrats in Virginia have built up a hefty fundraising advantage for their effort to reclaim the governor's mansion in a November election that is seen as a bellwether for the party in power in Washington ahead of the 2026 midterms. Democrat Abigail Spanberger, a former CIA spy turned congresswoman, has a more than 2-to-1 fundraising advantage over her GOP opponent for governor, Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, who has struggled to draw support from her fellow Republicans. Both were unopposed for their party's nominations and were able to focus on the fall general election without having to overcome a challenge in this week's primaries. The match-up means Virginia is all but certain to elect the state's first female governor. Spanberger has amassed $6.5 million toward her campaign for governor over the last two months after raising $6.7 million between January and March, according to the nonpartisan Virginia Public Access Project. Combined with the money Spanberger raised in 2024, she has gathered $22.8 million and still has $14.3 million in her coffers. Earle-Sears, meanwhile, spent more than she earned between April and June, bringing in $3.5 million and spending $4.6 million. Between January and March, she also raised a little over $3.1 million. In total, she has raked in nearly $9.2 million since launching her campaign last September. Now, she has a little under $3 million in the bank, according to Virginia Public Access Project data. In a statement, Earle-Sears' campaign said the candidate is putting forward a message for Virginians that money can't buy. "Clearly the Spanberger campaign needs a lot of help attempting to erase Abigail's bad voting record on issues that actually matter to Virginians," press secretary Peyton Vogel said in an email. "This race isn't being bought - it's being built on a message that matters." Virginia is one of two states, along with New Jersey, that host statewide elections this year. The contests will be closely watched as a measure of whether voters in the shadow of Washington will embrace President Donald Trump's aggressive effort to overhaul the federal government, or be repelled by it. Democrats' outsized fundraising lead ahead of the primaries may reflect local Democratic enthusiasm and the party's ability to push people to the polls in light of Trump being in office. Mark J. Rozell, dean of George Mason University's Schar School of Policy and Government, also referenced the noticeable frostiness among leading state Republicans. The party's statewide nominees have yet to campaign together, despite securing their nominations at the end of April. "Enthusiasm drives fundraising and in Virginia right now the Democrats' voting base has much greater enthusiasm" than Republicans, Rozell said. "It is reminiscent of Trump's first term in office when Democratic fundraising and ultimately voting overwhelmed the Republicans in Virginia." Money does not guarantee success, however. In the last Virginia governor's race, former Gov. Terry McAuliffe outspent Republican Glenn Youngkin, who had invested $20 million of his own money in the race. Youngkin still clinched the election by nearly two points. Youngkin, who is term-limited from seeking re-election, has offered more than $21,000 in support to Earle-Sears through his political action committee. When asked whether he would donate more, his PAC responded, "Governor Youngkin is working to elect the entire GOP ticket and is urging all Virginians to support the commonsense team this November to keep Virginia winning." The Democrats' fundraising advantage isn't confined to the governor's race. State Sen. Ghazala Hashmi, who eked out a primary win in a close three-way contest for lieutenant governor, raised nearly $1.8 million in her primary race and has $462,000 remaining. The Republican nominee, conservative talk-radio host John Reid, raised nearly $312,000 since launching his campaign and has $116,000 remaining. The only statewide GOP candidate with a fundraising lead, incumbent Attorney General Jason Miyares, has $2.3 million in the bank after raising a total of $4.6 million. His Democratic opponent, Jay Jones, has raised $2.7 million. He had about $493,000 left at the beginning of June, reports show. This year, all three Democratic statewide candidates are backed by Clean Virginia, a political group that pushes for clean energy and often takes on legislative challenges against Dominion Energy, Virginia's largest utility. The two groups are some of the most influential entities lobbying on state politics and policy. With energy demand likely to be a key issue in November, their influence could be significant. According to the nonpartisan public-access group, Spanberger has taken in $465,000 from the environmental organization. On Tuesday, Clean Virginia endorsed Hashmi's candidacy for lieutenant governor, following its previous donations to her state Senate campaign committee. During his campaign, Jones also received $1.5 million from Clean Virginia, while his primary opponent, Democrat Shannon Taylor, accepted $800,000 from Dominion Energy between 2024 and 2025. Clean Virginia released attack ads targeting Taylor for accepting Dominion money. The energy utility has become entangled in other statewide battles. On the Republican ticket, Earle-Sears accepted $50,000 from Dominion in March. Miyares also gained $450,000 from the utility so far this year. Clean Virginia has donated to both Democrats and Republicans, including to candidates running for the House of Delegates, where all 100 members are up for re-election in November. Democrats who control the legislature are hoping to keep or expand their thin majority and amend the state's Constitution to protect rights to voting, marriage equality and abortion. Democratic candidates have raised about $16.9 million in those races, with $3.2 million stemming from House Speaker Don Scott. Meanwhile, Republicans have raised $8.8 million, with former Minority Leader Todd Gilbert earning over $643,000, and newly tapped Minority Leader Terry Kilgore raising nearly $470,000.
