Latest news with #Albanian-born
The Hill
10 hours ago
- Business
- The Hill
Is the US in a debt-fueled national death spiral?
My Albanian-born father-in-law was an American patriot. In the mid-20th century, he served for decades as a CIA operative, quietly fighting against the spread of communism in Europe and Southeast Asia. Before his death at age 92, he lamented America's future, saying, 'I'm glad I won't be around to see the end.' Long before the U.S. was on the brink of World War III, I shared his bittersweet pessimism, prompted by the 'death spiral math' found on the U.S. Debt Clock. The 'clock' ticks real-time government data showing the ever-growing national debt — $36.9 trillion as of this writing — the most owed by any country or empire in human history. Nonetheless, this decades-long travesty of overspending, attributed to presidents from both parties, is still manageable if the U.S. gross domestic product — estimated at $29.2 trillion in 2024 — were to exceed the nearly $37 trillion national debt. At least, that is the economic theory recently espoused by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who stated, 'If the economy grows faster than the debt, we stabilize the country.' Bessent's philosophy of 'we can grow our way out of debt' supports adding an estimated $3.3 trillion to the national debt, according to the Congressional Budget Office, if President Trump's 'Big, Beautiful Bill' were to become law. Cue the laugh track, because Bessent's growth fantasy is a joke when viewed through the lens of history and facts. The national debt has exceeded GDP since 2013, and the Debt Clock shows the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio today at 123 percent. Reducing that unwieldy ratio requires a sustained economic boom not seen since the decades following World War II. In 1946, due to five years of war, the debt-to-GDP ratio reached a record 119 percent. If that upside-down ratio had persisted, it is unlikely that the U.S. would have maintained its global superpower status. Fortunately, America managed to climb its way out of debt through sustained post-war growth. Fueled by national optimism, the country experienced a significant baby boom that spurred unprecedented suburban expansion. The development of a national highway system, coast-to-coast new infrastructure and technological advancements coincided with the rise of consumerism, driven by wartime pent-up demand. By 1966, after 20 years of growth (with a few dips), the debt-to-GDP ratio decreased to 40 percent. Then, in 1974, with the Vietnam War winding down, the U.S. achieved its lowest post-war debt-to-GDP ratio of 31 percent, hitting that amount again in 1981 for the last time. After that, the debt-to-GDP ratio continued its dramatic climb. Does anyone honestly believe that Trump's 'Golden Age of America' policies will stimulate levels of explosive growth needed to reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio from 123 percent to double digits? Bessent's 'we can grow our way out of debt' wish-casting could easily be thwarted, starting with Trump's trade war. Then add untamed inflation, an aging population, ongoing global crises, natural disasters, supply-chain issues, AI's unpredictable impact and Trump's self-inflicted scientific brain drain resulting from cuts to research funding. Moreover, a shortage of highly skilled tech workers, the fallout from Trump's immigration policy, and economic uncertainty all contribute to slow growth, while government spending remains unchecked. No wonder the World Bank recently issued new economic projections contradicting Bessent's optimism. In 2024, the U.S. economy grew by 2.8 percent. However, for 2025, the World Bank's initial downward forecast of 1.8 percent growth has again been revised to 1.4 percent. It appears that Trump's Golden Age is only mining 'fool's gold.' Especially when, according to the Debt Clock's 'time machine,' the debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to reach 140 percent by 2029 — the year Trump leaves office. Most Americans don't know that the two largest federal expenditures are Medicaid and Medicare, totaling nearly $1.7 trillion, followed by Social Security at $1.5 trillion, according to the Debt Clock. Cuts to these massive programs are inevitable and will be painful, while Americans have a low tolerance for pain and sacrifice. Yet, that is the future. On the tax receipt side, the Debt Clock displays $5.1 trillion in revenue, relatively small compared to the $36.9 trillion national debt. This debt has risen so rapidly that interest has reached $1.03 trillion — the third-largest item in the federal budget. Debt service now exceeds defense spending, the fourth-largest expenditure at $907.7 billion. That little-known budget factor arose last year. In February, Niall Ferguson, a Hoover Institution fellow, wrote a stunning paper titled 'Ferguson's Law: Debt Service, Military Spending, and the Fiscal Limits of Power.' His 'law' states, 'Any great power that spends more on debt servicing than on defense risks ceasing to be a great power.' Ferguson argues that 'the debt burden draws scarce resources towards itself, reducing the amount available for national security, and leaving the power increasingly vulnerable to military challenge.' He cites numerous historical references to support his theory. For the optimists, Ferguson writes, 'it is very rare but not unprecedented for a great power to return to the right side of the Ferguson limit.' Thus, there is hope for our nation, but hope does not reverse the current death spiral of spending more on debt service than on defense. War is expensive, and the debt crisis will intensify as the U.S. edges closer to direct involvement in a Middle East conflict, which could easily widen. Our enemies are keenly aware of America's economic vulnerabilities. More defense spending means more borrowing and, eventually, the U.S. could cease to be a great power, according to Ferguson's Law. Meanwhile, proposed reductions to the two largest federal budget entitlements cited above elicited angry jeers from town hall participants, such as 'cuts will cause people to die.' To which Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) retorted, 'Well, we are all going to die.' But unlike my late father-in-law, many of us reading this might be around to see the end. Myra Adams is an opinion writer who served on the creative team of two Republican presidential campaigns in 2004 and 2008.
Bloomberg
18-02-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Former OpenAI CTO Murati Unveils Plans for New AI Startup
Mira Murati, the former chief technology officer at OpenAI, has joined forces with several executives who worked at the ChatGPT maker to launch a new artificial intelligence startup. The company, called Thinking Machines Lab, will focus on building artificial intelligence models and products that support more 'human-AI collaboration' across every field of work, according to a blog post released Tuesday. 'While current systems excel at programming and mathematics, we're building AI that can adapt to the full spectrum of human expertise and enable a broader spectrum of applications,' the company said. Other key executives on Murati's team include John Schulman, who co-founded OpenAI in 2015 and will be chief scientist at Thinking Machines Lab, and Barret Zoph, who served as OpenAI's vice president of research and will be the new startup's CTO. Lilian Weng, OpenAI's former vice president of safety, has also joined the startup. Out of the nearly 30 current staff members listed in the blog post, more than a dozen were previously at OpenAI, according to those employees' public LinkedIn profiles. Guessing at what Murati's company will do and how much money it will raise has become a Silicon Valley parlor game since she stepped down from OpenAI in September. Murati has been in talks with venture capital firms about a funding round, according to people familiar with the matter. And in recent months, she was said to be seeking about $1 billion, one of the people said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss private conversations. The company declined to discuss funding plans. While Thinking Machines Lab does not have a product or model out yet, it claims to have a different philosophy than some other AI companies. The startup is having researchers and product leaders 'co-design' in tandem to 'make AI systems more widely understood, customizable and generally capable,' according to the blog post. 'Instead of focusing solely on making fully autonomous AI systems, we are excited to build multimodal systems that work with people collaboratively,' the startup said, referring to AI models that can work across mediums such as text, audio or video. The company is building models designed to excel in domains like science and programming, with an aim to unlock new breakthrough discoveries in those areas. Thinking Machines Lab is continuing to hire talent in areas such as machine learning and research management, per job listings online. Murati's startup also plans to frequently publish technical blog posts, papers and code. 'We think sharing our work will not only benefit the public, but also improve our own research culture,' the company said. An Albanian-born, Dartmouth-educated engineer, Murati, joined OpenAI in 2018 and was appointed CTO in 2022. During her time there, she shepherded major product releases, including the popular ChatGPT chatbot and advanced voice mode, a feature that lets users talk to the product in essentially real time. She also managed OpenAI's technical staff.
Yahoo
10-02-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Stunt photos won't reduce migration
Yvette Cooper is evidently rattled by alarming headlines suggesting that she is losing her grip on migration. As a veteran of the Blair era, the Home Secretary thinks the answer is to sound tough on foreign criminals and even tougher on the causes of foreign criminals. To that end, the Home Office has issued pictures and videos showing undesirables being removed. The idea is to show, not tell, the public that the Government really is on top of this problem. Admittedly, the pictures are underwhelming: an unnamed individual, his face pixelated, being escorted on to a plane to an undisclosed destination. Compared to the hundreds of images of thousands arriving on small boats or living in hotels that appear on social media daily, this Home Office stunt is hardly a game-changer. But the real challenge for Ms Cooper is that there are just too many counter examples of villains running rings around the criminal justice system in order to avoid deportation. This week we read about Albanian-born Klevis Disha, who gained British citizenship by deception and was then jailed in 2017 for two years after being caught with £250,000 in criminal proceeds. Disha was then due to be deported, but has been appealing ever since. Outrageously, a judge ruled that Disha's human rights would be violated by deportation because his 10-year-old son 'will not eat the type of chicken nuggets that are available abroad'. A more senior judge threw out this judgment, but the case is ongoing. Then there is the Pakistani paedophile who escaped deportation because a judge initially ruled that his absence would be 'unduly harsh' on his two small children – despite the fact that he is banned from living with them. Although this judgment has for now been set aside, our courts still risk becoming theatres of the absurd with such cases. The backlog of outstanding asylum appeals has grown fivefold in two years and now stands at 34,169 cases. Legal costs are a major factor in the cost of the asylum system, now in excess of £5 billion annually. The Home Office retorts that enforced returns, removals of foreign offenders and illegal working raids are all substantially up compared to a year ago. Yet as long as the courts continue to prevent deportations for spurious reasons, the Home Secretary will struggle to persuade us that enough is being done to protect the public from the scourge of foreign criminals. Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month with unlimited access to our award-winning website, exclusive app, money-saving offers and more.
