UFC Kansas City predictions, odds, full card preview: Is Carlos Prates legit?
After a rare week off, the UFC returns with a fight night event in Kansas City that will help to settle the welterweight contender scene.
Rising Fighting Nerds superstar Carlos Prates has been a must-see performer since he burst into the UFC last year. Four knockout victories later, Prates is already on the cusp of vying for UFC gold, and a win over Ian Machado Garry in his second UFC main event would be just what the doctor ordered. On the other hand, Garry is as motivated as ever to get back on track after taking his first career loss at the hands of Shavkat Rakhmonov this past December.
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In the co-main event, one-time light heavyweight title challenger Anthony Smith makes his final walk to the Octagon when he battles China's Zhang Mingyang. Smith's final fight will see him attempt to snap a two-fight losing streak in what is his 60th career bout on record.
UFC Kansas City is somewhat of a blend between your typical 2025 road show and an APEX home game. The prelims are a rough, rough out, barring an exception or two. This card is all about the main card and the main event, in particular.
So, who gets it done?
Betting odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Jun 28, 2024; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Ian Machado Garry during weigh ins for UFC 303 at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
(USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect / Reuters)
170 pounds: Ian Machado Garry (-135) vs. Carlos Prates (+110)
The MMA world might implode if Garry is the man to hand Fighting Nerds' undefeated male fighters their first loss. Therefore, it would only be fitting, wouldn't it?
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Garry, 27, has all the talent in the world, and despite his loss to Rakhmonov, legitimized himself as a mainstay within the elite of the division. Ireland's "Future" appears to be exactly that. The oddsmakers got this one right, with Garry favored, as he's fought the better competition. The big problem, however, is that we've seen Garry's chin get touched, whether against Rakhmonov or dropped against lesser opponents like Song Kenan.
Prates is a marauder of violence in the Octagon. He's aggressive, but doesn't often overextend, which allows his precision to shine. Garry will have Prates outmatched technically in every aspect of MMA, making the striking battle all the more intriguing. The most impressive thing to me from the Rakhmonov loss was Garry's incredible balance and grappling efficiency. Once he has his position, he will maintain it, and if you get him down, it will take one hell of an effort.
Expect Garry to chop at Prates' lead leg before mixing in takedown attempts. Timing will be everything for Garry because he tends not to grapple until after getting touched — unless against a sophisticated technician he knows is better, like Michael "Venom" Page.
That's the X-factor in this fight: timing. Prates will deliver his dangerous blows at range or in clinch exchanges. I just don't see Garry going in with the grappling-heavy mindset that he should. The Fighting Nerds are the real deal, folks.
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Pick: Prates
205 pounds: Anthony Smith (+400) vs. Zhang Mingyang (-550)
Smith didn't look for a "gimme" in his send-off.
"Lionheart" is as seasoned as it gets, and with his new sense of accomplishment, he can make for a dangerous final version of himself in the Octagon. As a striking threat, Smith doesn't appear anywhere near what he once was, and his speed has slowed significantly. He makes up for it with his grappling prowess, which makes him an excellent test for the intimidating Zhang.
China's "Mountain Tiger" is a brutal, bruising puncher. Smith won't be able to handle much of the damage that comes his way, and every fight starts standing. Zhang adds to his highlight reel unless he gives up his neck for an easy guillotine like Vitor Petrino did against Smith.
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Pick: Zhang
145 pounds: Giga Chikadze (+135) vs. David Onama (-160)
We love a good changing of the guard matchup. Giga Chikadze vs. David Onama has higher potential than the co-main event, with Chikadze as a bigger player in his division than Smith at light heavyweight. However, Chikadze isn't yet on his way out.
Don't get it twisted. Thanks to his kickboxing background, the Georgian striking sensation is getting long in the tooth in overall combat sports experience. Chikadze is another case in these UFC Kansas City matchups where the level of competition favors him comfortably. He's only lost to some of the best fighters the division has to offer in Arnold Allen and Calvin Kattar since he joined the UFC in 2019. Name value-wise, it's hard to pinpoint precisely who Onama's best win is.
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"The Silent Assassin" has rightfully been a well-hyped prospect with solid hopes and finishing ability. He's shown maturity in the most recent two victories on his three-fight winning streak, which helps him most against a striker of Chikadze's caliber in all senses.
There are levels to this game, and Chikadze is a solid leap for Onama. It all comes down to whether or not you think the 36-year-old former GLORY Kickboxing champ is on a downward slide. I'm not quite there yet.
Pick: Chikadze
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - OCTOBER 19: Michel Pereira of Brazil prepares to face Anthony Hernandez in a middleweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event at UFC APEX on October 19, 2024 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)
(Jeff Bottari via Getty Images)
185 pounds: Michel Pereira (-140) vs. Abus Magomedov (+115)
Poor Michel Pereira. He goes from a main event after zapping dudes into oblivion, falls short via smothering, and finds himself not even in a co-main event slot. It's somewhat understandable, but still a harsh reality.
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Pereira is still the silliest, best time at 185 pounds, and Abus Magomedov has regained momentum after back-to-back losses to Sean Strickland and Caio Borralho. There's no shame in either loss for Magomedov. Each simply proved he wasn't ready for the level of talent both fighters possess atop the division. Pereira is still in a similar boat, climbing the ranks. It feels as though the assumption will be that Pereira is a fish out of water on the ground after being exposed by Anthony Hernandez in that area. That's true to an extent. At the same time, that's how good Hernandez is.
Magomedov is arguably more dangerous overall, but Pereira just makes fiction a reality when he starts throwing moves you thought weren't supposed to work. And more often than not, they have. Brazil's favorite showman gets back in the win column and feeds off the crowd every step of the way.
Pick: Pereira
170 pounds: Randy Brown (-250) vs. Nicolas Dalby (+200)
Randy Brown was robbed. Randy Brown was robbed. Randy Brown was robbed. Say it three times, and it will reverse the result of his Bryan Battle loss at UFC 310. OK, that part isn't true, but the first part is.
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This fight oddly feels like a rematch of a fight that never happened. Brown and Nicolas Dalby have been in the UFC for the better part of the last decade, seeking their spots in the top 15 without ever colliding — until now.
"Rudeboy" has come into his own throughout his recent bouts, while Dalby remains an absolute dog, willing to take a fight anywhere despite his seasoned age of 40. Dalby still has gas left in the tank and proves it every fight. He arguably fell into the same boat as Brown in his last fight, losing a split decision to Rinat Fakhretdinov.
Brown, 34, should hold multiple physical advantages over Dalby, piling on the damage early and often. I can see this fight playing out where Brown gets clearly ahead in the first two rounds — but Dalby never goes away. "Danish Dynamite" will rally late. A finish just won't materialize.
Pick: Brown
185 pounds: Ikram Aliskerov (-500) vs. Andre Muniz (+360)
Remember what I said about Ikram Aliskerov? It's even more applicable than with Pereira, as poor Aliskerov stepped up to save the day against Robert Whittaker last October, got starched, and now opens the main card against the submission specialist, Andre Muniz.
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Alright, this matchup is all Aliskerov's to lose. Muniz had accrued some solid hype early into his UFC run, and I was even on the train, pushing him through the contender list — then he got fraud-checked by Brendan Allen and Paul Craig. Even Muniz's wins over Jun-Yong Park and Uriah Hall, which bookend those losses, don't help restore faith. If you're not a grappler of a decent caliber with serviceable wrestling, you can beat Muniz. Unfortunately for him, Aliskerov is a very defensively sound grappler who won't struggle at all to keep Muniz off him.
Aliskerov's literal only kryptonite thus far in his 17-fight career has been uppercuts. The guy can't see them or something. Whittaker and Khamzat Chimaev violently highlighted that, and Muniz should get to spamming if he knows what's best for him. I can't say I have any faith left, however.
Pick: Aliskerov
Jul 8, 2023; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Cameron Saaiman (red gloves) reacts to defeating Terrence Mitchel (blue gloves) during UFC 290 at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports
(USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect / Reuters)
Preliminary notes
Regardless of how soul-crushingly abysmal some UFC cards can be in the 2020s, I don't feel this way often: UFC Kansas City's prelims are completely missable. I almost want to recommend you don't watch until the main card. Then you see a flyweight scrap like Matt Schnell vs. Jimmy Flick chilling atop the list, and you go, "Oh yeah. Those dudes are fun as hell, and each goes out there sometimes dying multiple times in one fight. (If they're Schnell.)" They're both unretired fighters, too. So, you know, it's the most MMA fight we could ask for.
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Cameron Saaiman, Chris Gutierrez and Jacqueline Amorim all catch my eye regarding specific fighters. The South African bantamweight bestie of middleweight champ Dricus du Plessis hasn't been seen since his brutal Payton Talbott loss. Gutierrez has been bitten by the cancellation bug after a tough Song Yadong loss and rebound Quang Le win. And Amorim? Well, she's just a bright prospect at strawweight, finishing everyone in front of her. What more do you want?
Quick picks:
Matt Schnell (-200) def. Jimmy Flick (+165)
Evan Elder (-210) def. Gauge Young (+170)
Chris Gutierrez (-145) def. John Castaneda (+120)
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Da'Mon Blackshear (-400) def. Alateng Heili (+310)
Cameron Saaiman (-105) def. Malcolm Wellmaker (-115)
Jacqueline Amorim (-800) def. Polyana Viana (+550)
Timothy Cuamba (+110) def. Roberto Romero (-135)
Joselyne Edwards (-300) def. Chelsea Chandler (+240)
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