Is SA ready to meet the new tech challenges?
Every day presents us with the reality that the fantastical future of our childhoods, a future in which cars drove themselves and machines could think, is here.
That future, characterised by rapid advances in technology and artificial intelligence (AI), is complex, challenging and holds many opportunities — and even more perils.
Can SA negotiate it successfully?
As we debate just how many people are unemployed in the country, are we even considering that a significant number of jobs will be obliterated by technological advances and AI — and what that means for SA?
There will of course be many new jobs created by these advances — are we prepared to exploit those opportunities?
Are our education systems already preparing such a workforce?
We are not alone, of course.
The global bank Goldman Sachs has said about 300-million jobs globally could be affected by generative AI, the consultancy McKinsey has said between 400- and 800-million people could lose their jobs to AI by 2030, while the International Monetary Fund says nearly 40% of global employment is exposed to AI.
The future is here.
My thoughts turned to these issues as I visited Los Angeles in the US last week.
Some of the most dramatic pictures to come out of the recent riots in that city were of protesters, or agents provocateurs, setting 'autonomous' or driverless taxis on fire.
In one attention-grabbing picture, a masked 'protester' is standing on top of one such car, vandalising it with a skateboard, while another car is engulfed by flames behind him.
Waymo, the company which runs the driverless taxi service, temporarily suspended service due to the vandalism, but it is not deterred.
It is reportedly 'aggressively expanding into new US markets'.
It already provides more than 250,000 paid trips each week in Phoenix, San Francisco, Los Angeles and Austin, Texas.
It is preparing to bring fully autonomous rides to Atlanta, Miami, and Washington, DC next year.
It has applied for permission to operate in New York City 'autonomously with a trained specialist' [driver] as the first step towards breaking into the largest U S city as a fully driverless service.
For many of us, the idea of a driverless ride-hailing service (essentially Uber or Bolt without a driver) in SA seems like a distant joke.
Forget about the driving itself. What about the potential for crimes such as the hijacking and kidnapping of passengers and vandalism?
These impediments are short-term.
At some point, passengers (and women in particular) scared about an immediate crime (being harassed or even assaulted by a ride hailing driver — sadly, frequent offences in SA) will opt for a service such as this one.
Stats SA has suggested there are about 250,000 minibus taxi drivers in the country. What is their future?
We are a country which relies heavily on people.
For example, there are some 140,000 people employed at petrol stations across the country, many of them as petrol attendants.
This is an SA luxury which many countries don't enjoy — you dispense petrol for yourself.
These jobs will however not be in danger from AI or South Africans suddenly realising they can service themselves.
Most petrol attendants may lose their jobs because of another technical innovation: the world is moving very swiftly towards electric vehicles .
It may take years, but it's coming.
SA faces an unemployment tsunami.
We talk about unemployment so much on these pages and yet nothing really happens except when the minister of higher education appoints her comrades to the boards of sector education and training authorities to loot the funds which are supposed to educate young people for this uncertain future.
One of the few leaders who seem to be thinking about the impact of these developments on our society is former finance minister and businessman Trevor Manuel.
I have to say, the more our country matures the more I am convinced we missed a huge opportunity in not elevating him to the presidency very soon after Thabo Mbeki departed the stage in 2008. We are the poorer for it.
Speaking at Glendale High School in Rocklands, Cape Town, last week, Manuel said he believed today's youth were not being equipped for a radically changing world.
'People talk about artificial intelligence, and in areas like Mitchells Plain and Philippi, we sit around and say: 'What is that?'' he said.
'And if we do not transform the education system, we are going to leave behind this generation and the next generation.
'It's not the fault of the young people, it's the fault of those of us who understand there is a different world, and we don't actually make adequate investments in time, energy and resources.'
The future is here. The challenge is to ensure that in five and 10 years we do not look back at this period with the regret we have about the past 10 or 15 'lost' years.
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