Saharan Dust moves into Florida as National Hurricane Center tracks 3 tropical waves
Saharan Dust over portions of Florida is keeping skies hazy. It's also helping inhibit the development of any tropical systems.
The Atlantic is likely to remain quiet through the end of June, despite some early hints at tropical formation, according to AccuWeather.
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Reduced air quality and rain chances are in the forecast today, June 13, as a plume of Saharan Dust remains above South Florida, according to the National Weather Service Miami. Dust, along with wind shear, help suppress tropical development but also brings hazy skies and colorful sunrises and sunsets.
The first named storm in the Atlantic basin will be Andrea.
Here's the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 2 a.m. Friday, June 13:
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring three tropical waves in the Atlantic:
Tropical wave 1: An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 32W from 15N southward, and moving westward around 11 mph.
Tropical wave 2: A tropical North Atlantic tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean Islands at 61.5W from 18N southward, and moving westward at 11 to 17 mph.
Tropical wave 3: A southwestern Caribbean tropical wave is near 80W from SW of Jamaica southward across western Panama, and moving westward at around 11 to 17 mph.
"The average first named storm in the Atlantic is June 20, but development over the central and eastern basin looks unfavorable through June at this time," said AccuWeather lead hurricane forecaster Alex DaSilva.
"We still expect the Central American gyre to form later this month, and its formation could spur tropical development in waters in the western Caribbean or southwestern Gulf."
Now is the time to prepare for a hurricane, before a storm is approaching.
Saharan dust is expected to help keep the tropics quiet into the week of June 16, according to AccuWeather.
Frequent pockets of dust are moving across the Atlantic from Africa, where they'll affect Florida as they move into the Gulf.
A plume of Saharan Dust is expected to arrive in South Florida starting Friday, June 13, according to the National Weather Service Miami. The arrival of the dust should decrease rain chances starting Friday.
The National Hurricane Center is tracking two disturbances in the eastern Pacific, including one expected to become the next named storm later today, June 13.
is located west of southwestern Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph, with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and continue strengthening Saturday as it moves parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico.
Impacts to land are expected to be 2-4 inches of rain, with localized amounts of 6 inches across the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, and Colima through the weekend.
The next named storm to form in the eastern Pacific, which has its own list of storms separate from the Atlantic basin, will be Dalila.
Also in the eastern Pacific, an area of low pressure is expected to develop late this weekend or early next week near the coast of Central America. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development.
Historically, tropical cyclones form close to the U.S. in June, with the most common locations being the northwestern Caribbean and the eastern Gulf, according to Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist with WeatherTiger. Truchelut is a Florida meteorologist who works with the USA TODAY Network.
"None of the reputable forecast models are showing a realistic chance of anything tropical forming on the Atlantic side of Central America through mid-month."
➤ WeatherTiger: False alarms, beneficial rain and a dusty start to Florida storm season
The exception is the GFS model, which is predicting a Caribbean tropical storm will spin up in 10 to 12 days, then move generally northward, Truchelut said.
"The GFS has a persistent and well-known bias for incorrectly predicting development in the Caribbean at this specific time of year," Truchelut said. "All told, while something could eventually spin up in two or three weeks, the GFS' frequent false alarms should be disregarded."
A "ghost hurricane" is a term used to describe a tropical storm or hurricane that appears in a forecast model but which doesn't happen in reality, according to CNN.
Pensacola, western Panhandle: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 79.
Tallahassee, central Panhandle: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 1 p.m. It'll be mostly sunny, with a high near 90. Heat index values as high as 100.
Jacksonville, North/Northeast Florida: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 3 p.m. Partly sunny, with a high near 91. Heat index values as high as 100.
Daytona Beach to Stuart, East/Central Florida: Best chances for showers and storms today are across the interior west of I-95. Highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s, with peak heat indices 100 to 103.
West Palm Beach to Naples, South/Southwest Florida: Reduced air quality and rain chances are in the forecast today as a plume of Saharan Dust remains above South Florida
Fort Myers to Sarasota, West/Southwest Florida: There's a chance for showers today, with a high near 88 and heat index as high as 102.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it's in the tropical Atlantic basin.
To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a "rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation," NOAA said.
Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated:
: for storms in the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific.
: for storms in the Northwest Pacific.
: for storms in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean.
We will update our tropical weather coverage daily.
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This article originally appeared on Treasure Coast Newspapers: Hurricane season in Florida quiet so far. Saharan Dust is helping
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