Popularity of blind boxes has a lot to do with luck, chance and scarcity
You might not know what Labubus are, but Lucia, 13, sees them all over social media.
"I have two," she says.
"Influencers use them a lot and they're just always branded, and they're always promoted online."
Labubus are elfish-looking plush toys that double as a large key ring and can often be seen clipped on bags.
They originated in Hong Kong, as one character from a series of picture books titled The Monsters.
To say Labubus are in high demand is an understatement – online, the product can sell out in a matter of minutes.
So, when Lucia did manage to get her hands on one, she was, initially, pretty happy about it.
"I was finally hopping on the trend that was all over social media," she says.
"I feel like I was a bit disappointed because I didn't get the ones that I wanted but like I feel that's kind of on me because it's like a little mystery."
Labubus are just one character in the multi-billion-dollar blind-box industry, which hinges a lot of its popularity on luck and chance.
The industry is growing rapidly.
Pop Mart, the Chinese retailer that sells Labubus and specialises in blind boxes, has a market capitalisation value of $51 billion, and grew 340 per cent in 2024 alone.
Blind boxes, also known as mystery boxes, are sealed packages that contain one randomly chosen and distributed product from a larger series.
Most of the time, they are toys, trinkets, stationery, jewellery, or even electronic devices.
"They're basically low-stakes and low-value items," says Renata Yannoulis, an advertising strategy director at agency TBWA Australia.
The earliest version of a blind box dates back to the early 20th century with a Japanese tradition called fukubukuro, where retailers would sell products in unmarked bags at a discounted price.
The toy-centred version emerged in the 1960s with gachapon, a vending machine that dispenses toys in plastic capsules.
The promise of a random, collectable toy as a strategy to sell products has been used in other parts of the world, too – cereal box prizes in the early 1900s, Kinder Surprises and Happy Meals.
While these collectibles may seem cute or harmless, the blind-box model of chance, and the thrill that comes with luck and randomness, is linked to gambling behaviours.
"You might find yourself in a Pop Mart store and you're betting that box that you pick up off that shelf that's got the exact Labubu that you are after," Ms Yannoulis says.
"You might get to the counter and think, 'I want to hedge my bet. I want to increase my chance because maybe I'm not as lucky as I think. So maybe I'll buy two boxes and double my chances of getting this mystery box right and getting the exact one I want.'"
Indyana and Hannah, who are both 18, agree.
"It is kind of addictive, and if you don't get what you want, you may never get it," Hannah says.
Mia, 18, says it's easy to get swept up in buying the products in bulk to increase the chances of finding the desired collectible.
"I feel like after you're like, 'Oh, I spent a lot of money. I probably shouldn't have,'" she says.
The scarcity of some blind boxes – Labubus, in particular – has been seen to play a significant role in their popularity and competition around buying one of these products.
While part of this is basic supply and demand, the marketing tactic of "manufactured scarcity" is also at play.
"Manufactured scarcity is designed to keep people repeat purchasing in pursuit of a particular very niche item that they don't yet have, that a lot of people want," Ms Yannoulis says.
"It signals to others that you're potentially expending money, time or effort to get this thing that everybody wants.
"These brands and businesses are manufacturing that scarcity by putting a cap on the number of distribution points that you can get these products."
Mia and Ella, 17, say the thrill and excitement of blind boxes comes from this scarcity and how hard they are to find.
"You see it [blind boxes] all on TikTok and you're like, 'Where did you get it? Where did you get it?'" Mia says.
"[It's] the FOMO of missing out, of not having them," Ella says.
In 2022, Shanghai introduced strict guidelines in response to the potential harms of blind boxes as a vessel in gambling.
The guidelines came in the form of age limits, capped pricing and limiting scarcity.
The viral trend of "unboxing" – the act of recording and sharing videos of a product being opened for the first time – is also fuelling demand for collectibles.
"You actually get second-hand instant gratification from watching people unbox their own toys," Ms Yannoulis says.
Mia and Ella see sharing these videos as a way to engage with the broader blind-box community.
"We've got all these videos of us doing them [unboxing]," Ella says.
"And you're like, 'Oh my gosh' and then you put it into your Instagram and … you're like, 'Guys, look!'" Mia says.
For Hannah, the joy that comes with unboxing is linked to nostalgia.
"It's just something that you do as a little kid," she says.
"You get excited when you find something that you really want and you can unbox it and, I don't know, it's just an adrenaline, a bit of an adrenaline rush. You're like, 'Yay!'"
Unboxing does, however, come at a cost to sustainability, as layers of packaging are used to conceal the collectibles that are often made of plastic themselves.
"It is scary to think about the volume of product that will eventually end up in landfill because of this trend when it does, ultimately, die out, let alone the packaging itself," Ms Yannoulis says.
Ms Yannoulis says, at best, collectibles can provide moments of joy, but moderation should always be front of mind.
"They offer comfort, a little sense of security, a little bit of wonder, a little bit of joy … but it's never going to provide that long-term fulfilment or that meaningful positivity in your life," she says.
"So, for people to obsess over and put such a high value on it, it can become a little dangerous.
"If you have one Labubu, it's probably enough."
"I think remembering they're just toys at the end of the day, and just don't go around buying, like, a hundred," Ella says.
"It's fun for everyone. It's fun to share!" Mia says.
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