John Ivison: On campaign's final weekend, the Grits have the momentum
KING CITY, ONT. – With two days to go until polling day, Mark Carney was careful not to break into a victory lap.
At a campaign event at Seneca College in this commuter community 40 km north of Toronto, Carney was asked to grade his own campaign performance.
The problem with being successful is that it breeds hubris, a quality voters tend to find toxic.
But the Liberal leader is a quick study and sidestepped a curve-ball that could have struck him squarely between the eyes. 'Every study I've ever taken, it is the teacher who gives the grades,' he said.
It was a prudent response. The polls give the Liberals a four-point cushion nationally, with regional break-outs in Ontario and Quebec looking even more rosy. Carney consistently outpolls Pierre Poilievre on perceived competence and likeability.
The race does not always go to the candidate ahead in the polls, but that's the way to bet. Betting markets give the Liberals a 71 percent chance of forming government, compared to a 20 percent chance for the Conservatives. A certain Donald Trump faced similar odds in 2016 and triumphed.
But the momentum is with the Liberals. You can see it and feel it on the ground. On Friday night, Carney campaigned in an NDP-held riding, London—Fanshawe, that has been held by the mother-daughter dynasty of Lindsay and Irene Mathyssen since 2006.
On Saturday evening, Carney is scheduled to hold a rally in Windsor West. The seat is held by veteran NDP MP, Brian Masse, who has won there eight times.
It is a measure of the rise in Liberal fortunes, at the expense of the NDP, that Masse's seat is now considered to be in play.
There is no sentiment in politics, and in return for propping up the government for the past two years, the Liberals are intent on wiping New Democrats from the electoral map.
The King—Vaughan seat is currently held by the Conservatives, but it too is considered a potential pick-up for the Liberals.
The reason is the story of this election: Carney has been the candidate who has best addressed the anxieties about the Trump administration felt by millions of Canadians.
He has talked about 'the biggest crisis of our lifetimes' and the rhetoric has felt overblown at times, particularly in the weeks between Trump bloviating about Canada becoming the '51st state.'
But the president has entered the stage again, as if on cue from the Liberal campaign.
In an interview with Time magazine, he said he is not trolling when he says he wanted to grow the American empire to include Canada, Greenland and the Panama Canal.
'I say the only way this works is for Canada to become a state,' he told the magazine.
Carney referred to the comments in his remarks. 'I take it literally,' he said. 'Others ignored it and said it's a joke. But I took it seriously.'
He said Trump's efforts to reshape the global trading system 'demonstrates the costs and consequences of our democratic choices.'
The line of questioning from reporters focused on how Carney would deal with Trump's threats, if elected.
He was asked if he is setting unrealistic expectations by saying Canada can win a trade war.
He said the country loses any negotiations if it gives the Americans what they want. 'We will be damaged if we lose access to the (U.S.) market,' he said. But building a single Canadian economy and exploiting trading opportunities elsewhere would give Canada leverage. 'That's winning the trade war,' he said.
He said he does not believe the U.S. would ever resort to military force. 'But I do think the U.S. is trying to put economic pressure on us to gain major concessions … a level of integration of our countries that would impinge on our sovereignty,' he said.
'We have to be clear-eyed about this. These aren't just words when I say in a crisis we have to prepare for the worst. And the worst is, that is the goal. Take what the president says literally.'
Carney said he sees 'a landing place' of a negotiated settlement but did not expand on what that might look like.
Earlier this month in Oakville, Ont., he was asked whether Trump is likely to abide by any deal that is reached.
He said negotiations would have to focus on sectors where the fundamental economic interests are so tightly bound that the incentives to reach agreement are present.
'I look specifically at the auto sector, where it is going to become very apparent very quickly that taking apart something that has been built up over my lifetime is not in the interests of U.S. jobs,' he said.
In large measure, the election appears to have come down to voters answering the question Carney posed in his remarks in King City: 'Is Pierre Poilievre the person you want sitting around the table with President Trump?'
It will be a stunning reversal for the pollsters and the pundits if the answer on Monday is 'yes.'
jivison@criffel.ca Twitter.com/IvisonJ
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