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The Herald Scotland
33 minutes ago
- Politics
- The Herald Scotland
The Tories are becoming two parties in one. Which one will prevail?
But for the two parties of the right, there are more existential issues to keep in mind. The Tory party in Scotland finds itself in the hottest water it has encountered since devolution began. The party bumbled along for the first few terms of Parliament in the mid teens in vote share, translating to the high teens in seat numbers. As the anti-devolution party, they spent a fair bit of the first decade just trying to convince people they actually wanted to be there, with their first leader David McLetchie also making a good fist of putting into place some sort of liberal, free-market policy platform as an alternative to the social democratic consensus which was emerging. Read more by Andy Maciver The theoretical high-point of the party was when, under Annabel Goldie, it struck up an informal agreement to prop up the minority SNP administration of Alex Salmond. In reality, though, the SNP got what it wanted out of that arrangement for pocket change, and the Conservatives were unable to use those four years to derive any kind of sustained shift in sentiment. At its lowest ebb after the 2011 election, the party was saved, not by something to argue for but by something to argue against; independence. In the wake of the independence referendum, with the Labour Party in the grip of Jeremy Corbyn – who had indicated his agnosticism towards Scotland's future in the UK – and with the SNP having won a landslide victory in the 2015 General Election on a ticket of promising another independence referendum, the Tories scored the open goal with which they had been presented. In elections in 2016, 2017, 2019 and 2021, with constitutional temperatures running hot, the core Tory vote in the teens was joined by a large number of unionists who held their noses and voted for the party they thought would stop another referendum. The trouble is, though, that the party's vote was built on sand. The Tories should, by now, have realised that they have been victims of their own success. The UK Government's belligerent "no, never" approach to granting a referendum led to the Scottish Government pursuing the case in the Supreme Court that led to the now-famous judicial decision that the Scottish Parliament cannot legislate for an independence referendum. With independence off the table, and the Tories heading out of office, those "transactional Tories" who backed the party for four elections over five years chewed them up and spat them out. Add to the mix the rise of the Reform party, and you have the story of why, at the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election, Scotland's primary party of the centre-right polled six per cent of the vote. We should understand what that means. Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse sits within the Central Scotland electoral region. In 2021, with over 18 per cent of the vote, the Tories returned three MSPs. In the neighbouring Glasgow region, its 12 per cent gave them two MSPs, and next door in West Scotland (where the party's leader Russell Findlay has his seat) a 22 per cent vote share gave them another three seats. Through east, in the other urban region of Lothian, a 20 per cent vote share gave them another three. That's 11 MSPs across those four urban regions – around one-third of the party's total. An outcome more like the six per cent the party polled in the by-election puts every one of those seats at risk. In all probability, there are enough rural areas in West Scotland and in Lothian to keep them in the game, but only just. There is angst within the Tory MSP group that the party's strategy amounts to no more than hoping Reform will implode. In reality, though, it's about the best strategy available to them in the short term. Cross your fingers, folks. This is not true, though, in rural parts of the country. It is interesting to look back at that 2024 General Election, at where the party kept its seats. The Tories have retained a good amount of land mass, up north and down south, still popular in rural areas. The Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election changed the political ground in Scotland (Image: PA) There is an underlying story here, of two parties under one banner. There is the Tory party of the blue-collar, hacked off, law and order urbanite, driven by concerns over community issues from anti-social behaviour to potholes, with unsubtle views about the impact of immigrants and even more unsubtle views about the distribution of welfare to them, and a sensitive radar to woke issues. That is the party of Mr Findlay, for sure, but the trouble is it is also a mirror-image of Reform. If there is a distinction between Mr Findlay and defectors to Reform such as Glasgow councillor Thomas Kerr, then it is a distinction I am yet to spot upon hearing the two men speak. They are fishing from the same pool and, in the by-election and in national polling, it is Mr Kerr's party which is catching the bulk of the fish. Then there is the Tory party of rural Scotland; the entrepreneurs and small business owners, the free-market liberals concerned about the pernicious economic environment; the hard workers impinged by dismal infrastructure. Ironically, this is very much the party of Mr Findlay's Deputy, Rachael Hamilton. This party does fairly well, and in truth is more in tune with the needs of rural people and rural businesses than any other, including the SNP. We may find, in May next year, that the party's Holyrood map looks more like its Westminster one; strong to the north and to the south, but gutted in the middle. Maybe, as we inevitably move into a fractious parliament and perhaps to a future with more new entrants into Holyrood, and as Scotland's productive economy becomes more focussed on rural Scotland, it is this version of the Tory party which will prove its longevity. Andy Maciver is Founding Director of Message Matters, and co-host of the Holyrood Sources podcast
Scotsman
an hour ago
- Business
- Scotsman
The ultimate disruption: What if Reform promised a referendum on Scottish independence?
PA Sign up to our daily newsletter – Regular news stories and round-ups from around Scotland direct to your inbox Sign up Thank you for signing up! Did you know with a Digital Subscription to The Scotsman, you can get unlimited access to the website including our premium content, as well as benefiting from fewer ads, loyalty rewards and much more. Learn More Sorry, there seem to be some issues. Please try again later. Submitting... It was billed as a new forum to pose 'the big questions' about Scotland's future, and in fairness Tuesday's Scotland 2050 conference offered a decent line-up, with an intriguing pairing of economy secretary Kate Forbes and Cherie Blair and keynote speeches from First Minister John Swinney and Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar. They are, of course, always 'keynote' speeches, shorthand for a solo spot without interruptions in which little of any note, key or otherwise, is said, and judging by transcripts and subsequent coverage, the presentations at Edinburgh's Assembly Rooms lived down to expectations. 'We were expecting great visions of the future and what we got were stump speeches,' said one attendee who knows about these things. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad But it received extensive coverage, so those who bankrolled the free event, presumably the property companies who put up panellists, will have been satisfied with their investment. However, it was who was not there that was most revealing. The faces and names might have been different, but the line-up was drawn from the same sort of bien pensants who have dominated the Scottish Parliament since its inception, and before that the Scottish Constitutional Convention and other 'Civic Scotland' talking shops. 'Scotland 2050 will be Scotland's most inclusive one day conference,' said the blurb, 'We believe that new thinking is required to reimagine what can be achieved to deliver a new enlightenment'. Perhaps, but whether by accident, absence or design, Scotland's most inclusive one day conference did not include anyone from the Scottish Conservatives, and there was no-one from Reform, the party which won 26 per cent of the vote at the Hamilton by-election. I was, however, at an event that evening which was attended by four of the emerging party's leading figures, some of whom I doubt are even household names in their own households, but all the same they are people who are making the political weather; disruptors, bogeymen, crypto-fascists, denigrate them however you like, but poll after poll indicates there will be around 15 Reform MSPs in the Scottish Parliament. While plenty of their more prominent candidates are former Conservatives, as a party Reform is unburdened by a past political record, and while a clean slate, blue-sky thinking or whatever might produce quite bonkers ideas like Nigel Farage's suggestion that a Reform government would re-open South Wales coal mines, it does reveal a party prepared to think the unthinkable in the quest for votes. The other side of the Hamilton coin was the trouncing of the SNP, finishing second in a seat it had held, with vote share down nearly 17 per cent, compared to the Conservative loss of 11 per cent. Speaking separately to two prominent Nationalists this week produced the same analysis; that the SNP is a hollowed-out party in which critical thinking has been crushed, controlled by a failed hierarchy unable to produce workable ideas to take Scotland forward economically and advance the independence cause. Both saw opportunities arising around the time of the next general election, in the next ten years certainly, but with the party as it stands incapable of taking advantage, a spent force in a state of financial and intellectual collapse. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad I am not close enough to vouch for its accuracy, and of course the SNP leadership would claim it's fighting fit, but when the number of people who say they currently favour independence is about 20 per cent higher than those who say they will vote SNP, then something is badly wrong. The failures of the UK Labour government so soon after a general election victory based on hope is making no difference to SNP support, but even if independence is less of a priority for most voters than the cost of living, NHS, immigration, schools and crime, Unionists can have no cause for complacency. In the run-up to a general election in 2028-29, what if an ostensibly Unionist, but ultimately opportunist UK party like Reform were to make a manifesto commitment to offer the chance of a referendum with few strings attached? Maybe if independence support polling at 55 per cent for a year. No other Unionist party would match it, and neither could the SNP because it can never be in power in London. There is an obvious risk some Conservative defectors would return to the fold ─ and one, but not all, of the Reform folk on Tuesday night was quick to say it won't happen ─ but Nigel Farage could easily promise Reform would campaign for the Union while agreeing a referendum, as did David Cameron when signing the Edinburgh Agreement in 2012. He could argue that the principle of sovereignty and self-determination is consistent with the position taken by UKIP and the Brexit Party, and there would be no shortage of ordinary English voters who would be quite happy for Scotland to depart and for the Barnett Formula billions to stay south of the border.
Vancouver Sun
3 hours ago
- Politics
- Vancouver Sun
After B.C. Conservative leader made claim of MLA blackmailers in his own party, NDP asked RCMP to investigate
The chair of British Columbia's NDP caucus has written to the RCMP requesting an investigation into allegations that former members of the B.C. Conservative Opposition tried to blackmail their ex-colleagues. The letter from Stephanie Higginson to Deputy Commissioner Dwayne McDonald comes after B.C. Conservative Leader John Rustad wrote to his party's own caucus warning about the alleged blackmail by three MLAs and their staff. On Monday, Rustad confirmed that he wrote a letter obtained by The Canadian Press in which he tells his caucus that their former colleagues and staff were threatening to release 'blackmail materials,' including secretly recorded phone conversations and text messages. Start your day with a roundup of B.C.-focused news and opinion. By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc. A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder. The next issue of Sunrise will soon be in your inbox. Please try again Interested in more newsletters? Browse here. One of the former party members said Thursday that he welcomed a police investigation, saying Rustad made the blackmail allegations to 'distract and change the conversation' about how his leadership was reconfirmed at the annual general meeting of the party. Independent Jordan Kealy said he had already asked for an audit of the leadership review. 'Maybe the Conservative Party, if they've got nothing to hide, will then open their books and actually show to their constituents, voters and members, that they're telling the truth,' Kealy said in an interview. Another of the former Conservatives, Dallas Brodie, said on social media platform X that Rustad had 'painted himself into a corner' with a 'big lie' about blackmail that he could not substantiate. Higginson said in the open letter written on behalf of the NDP caucus that there's a significant public interest in determining the facts. She said if any MLA or their staff are engaged in blackmail, British Columbians deserve to know, and perpetrators should be prosecuted. Rustad said in an interview on Monday that he did not personally have recorded evidence of blackmail, but would not say if the party possessed it. 'As I said earlier, I am not sure what has been provided to our legal staff around it. I don't personally have it,' he said. Asked if Rustad was available for an interview on Thursday, the B.C. Conservative Party said it had received advice not to comment further on the matter. Higginson said British Columbians deserved to know whether Rustad has any evidence to support his accusations. 'Given the accusations of criminal activity, it seems appropriate for police to examine any relevant information in Mr. Rustad's possession to determine if additional investigation and/or criminal charges are necessary,' Higginson wrote. Premier David Eby said earlier this week after learning of the blackmail allegations that Rustad needed to take the claims to police, and if he didn't, then the NDP would. 'It is a profound and serious allegation that also strikes at the core of this place behind me and the public's confidence in the fact that legislators and staff members need to be able to do their work for the people without interference,' Eby said during a news conference outside the legislature on Tuesday. Tim Thielmann is the chief of staff for the new One BC party formed by Brodie and Tara Armstrong, who is the third ex-Conservative MLA. He blamed Eby for the NDP calling in the police, saying it was 'extremely irresponsible.' 'By his own admission, he is relying upon John Rustad's claims of blackmail, and when John Rustad has been asked for evidence, he has been unable to provide a single shred,' said Thielmann. He called the accusations in Rustad's letter to the Conservative caucus 'desperate lies' that he 'invented' to attack people exposing what happened at the party's annual general meeting. He said the case could 'cross the threshold for public mischief.' Brodie made the same argument in her social media post. 'If Rustad asks for a police investigation knowing his allegations are false, he might himself be committing the crime of public mischief under section 140 of the Criminal Code,' she said. 'But if he doesn't, he will have exposed his own big lie. 'And as for David Eby, he should know better than to attempt to instigate a police investigation when he admits to having absolutely no evidence of any wrongdoing.' Brodie was thrown out of the B.C. Conservatives over remarks about residential schools, prompting Armstrong and Kealy to quit the party in sympathy. Kealy, who is not a member of the new One BC party, said Thursday that he was 'completely fine' with the RCMP being called to investigate. 'I've got nothing to hide if they want to talk to me,' said Kealy. 'I have chosen to leave it to people that are in the position to properly investigate this thoroughly and to look into whether or not they're allegations being made falsely,' said Kealy. Armstrong said on social media on Wednesday that 'Rustad and Eby can throw around the accusations all they like but rest assured, the truth will always prevail.' Brodie has said Rustad and his team 'rigged' the Conservatives' March annual general meeting that endorsed his 'Team Rustad' slate of executive candidates, allegedly stacking the meeting with South Asian supporters paid 'to vote the way Mr. Rustad wanted.' Rustad's letter denied any wrongdoing at the meeting. — With additional reporting from Wolfgang Depner in Victoria Our website is the place for the latest breaking news, exclusive scoops, longreads and provocative commentary. Please bookmark and sign up for our politics newsletter, First Reading, here .
Edmonton Journal
3 hours ago
- Politics
- Edmonton Journal
After B.C. Conservative leader made claim of MLA blackmailers in his own party, NDP asked RCMP to investigate
Article content The chair of British Columbia's NDP caucus has written to the RCMP requesting an investigation into allegations that former members of the B.C. Conservative Opposition tried to blackmail their ex-colleagues. The letter from Stephanie Higginson to Deputy Commissioner Dwayne McDonald comes after B.C. Conservative Leader John Rustad wrote to his party's own caucus warning about the alleged blackmail by three MLAs and their staff. Article content On Monday, Rustad confirmed that he wrote a letter obtained by The Canadian Press in which he tells his caucus that their former colleagues and staff were threatening to release 'blackmail materials,' including secretly recorded phone conversations and text messages. One of the former party members said Thursday that he welcomed a police investigation, saying Rustad made the blackmail allegations to 'distract and change the conversation' about how his leadership was reconfirmed at the annual general meeting of the party. Independent Jordan Kealy said he had already asked for an audit of the leadership review. 'Maybe the Conservative Party, if they've got nothing to hide, will then open their books and actually show to their constituents, voters and members, that they're telling the truth,' Kealy said in an interview. Another of the former Conservatives, Dallas Brodie, said on social media platform X that Rustad had 'painted himself into a corner' with a 'big lie' about blackmail that he could not substantiate. Article content Article content Higginson said in the open letter written on behalf of the NDP caucus that there's a significant public interest in determining the facts. She said if any MLA or their staff are engaged in blackmail, British Columbians deserve to know, and perpetrators should be prosecuted. Rustad said in an interview on Monday that he did not personally have recorded evidence of blackmail, but would not say if the party possessed it. 'As I said earlier, I am not sure what has been provided to our legal staff around it. I don't personally have it,' he said. Asked if Rustad was available for an interview on Thursday, the B.C. Conservative Party said it had received advice not to comment further on the matter. Higginson said British Columbians deserved to know whether Rustad has any evidence to support his accusations. 'Given the accusations of criminal activity, it seems appropriate for police to examine any relevant information in Mr. Rustad's possession to determine if additional investigation and/or criminal charges are necessary,' Higginson wrote. Article content Premier David Eby said earlier this week after learning of the blackmail allegations that Rustad needed to take the claims to police, and if he didn't, then the NDP would. 'It is a profound and serious allegation that also strikes at the core of this place behind me and the public's confidence in the fact that legislators and staff members need to be able to do their work for the people without interference,' Eby said during a news conference outside the legislature on Tuesday. Tim Thielmann is the chief of staff for the new One BC party formed by Brodie and Tara Armstrong, who is the third ex-Conservative MLA. He blamed Eby for the NDP calling in the police, saying it was 'extremely irresponsible.' 'By his own admission, he is relying upon John Rustad's claims of blackmail, and when John Rustad has been asked for evidence, he has been unable to provide a single shred,' said Thielmann. Article content He called the accusations in Rustad's letter to the Conservative caucus 'desperate lies' that he 'invented' to attack people exposing what happened at the party's annual general meeting. He said the case could 'cross the threshold for public mischief.' Brodie made the same argument in her social media post. 'If Rustad asks for a police investigation knowing his allegations are false, he might himself be committing the crime of public mischief under section 140 of the Criminal Code,' she said. 'But if he doesn't, he will have exposed his own big lie. 'And as for David Eby, he should know better than to attempt to instigate a police investigation when he admits to having absolutely no evidence of any wrongdoing.' Brodie was thrown out of the B.C. Conservatives over remarks about residential schools, prompting Armstrong and Kealy to quit the party in sympathy. Latest National Stories
National Observer
8 hours ago
- Politics
- National Observer
BC NDP want RCMP investigation of alleged Conservative blackmailers
The chair of British Columbia's NDP caucus has written to the RCMP requesting an investigation into allegations that former members of the B.C. Conservative Opposition tried to blackmail their ex-colleagues. The letter from Stephanie Higginson to Deputy Commissioner Dwayne McDonald comes after B.C. Conservative Leader John Rustad wrote to his party's caucus warning about the alleged blackmail by three MLAs and their staff. On Monday, Rustad confirmed that he wrote a letter obtained by The Canadian Press in which he tells his caucus that their former colleagues and staff were threatening to release "blackmail materials," including secretly recorded phone conversations and text messages. One of the former party members said Thursday that he welcomed a police investigation, saying Rustad made the blackmail allegations to "distract and change the conversation" about how his leadership was reconfirmed at the annual general meeting of the party. Independent Jordan Kealy said he had already asked for an audit of the leadership review. "Maybe the Conservative Party, if they've got nothing to hide, will then open their books and actually show to their constituents, voters and members, that they're telling the truth," Kealy said in an interview. Another of the former Conservatives, Dallas Brodie, said on social media platform X that Rustad had "painted himself into a corner" with a "big lie" about blackmail that he could not substantiate. The chair of British Columbia's NDP caucus has written to the RCMP requesting an investigation into allegations that former members of the B.C. Conservative Opposition tried to blackmail their ex-colleagues. Higginson said in the open letter written on behalf of the NDP caucus that there's a significant public interest in determining the facts. She said if any MLA or their staff are engaged in blackmail, British Columbians deserve to know, and perpetrators should be prosecuted. Rustad said in an interview on Monday that he did not personally have recorded evidence of blackmail, but would not say if the party possessed it. 'As I said earlier, I am not sure what has been provided to our legal staff around it. I don't personally have it," he said. Asked if Rustad was available for an interview on Thursday, the B.C. Conservative Party said it had received advice not to comment further on the matter. Higginson said British Columbians deserved to know whether Rustad has any evidence to support his accusations. "Given the accusations of criminal activity, it seems appropriate for police to examine any relevant information in Mr. Rustad's possession to determine if additional investigation and/or criminal charges are necessary," Higginson wrote. Premier David Eby said earlier this week, after learning of the blackmail allegations, that Rustad needed to take the claims to the police, and if he didn't, then the NDP would. "It is a profound and serious allegation that also strikes at the core of this place behind me and the public's confidence in the fact that legislators and staff members need to be able to do their work for the people without interference," Eby said during a news conference outside the legislature on Tuesday. Tim Thielmann is the chief of staff for the new One BC party formed by Brodie and Tara Armstrong, who is the third ex-Conservative MLA. He blamed Eby for the NDP calling in the police, saying it was "extremely irresponsible." "By his own admission, he is relying upon John Rustad's claims of blackmail, and when John Rustad has been asked for evidence, he has been unable to provide a single shred," said Thielmann. He called the accusations in Rustad's letter to the Conservative caucus "desperate lies" that he "invented" to attack people exposing what happened at the party's annual general meeting. He said the case could "cross the threshold for public mischief." Brodie made the same argument in her social media post. "If Rustad asks for a police investigation knowing his allegations are false, he might himself be committing the crime of public mischief under section 140 of the Criminal Code," she said. "But if he doesn't, he will have exposed his own big lie. "And as for David Eby, he should know better than to attempt to instigate a police investigation when he admits to having absolutely no evidence of any wrongdoing." Brodie was thrown out of the B.C. Conservatives over remarks about residential schools, prompting Armstrong and Kealy to quit the party in sympathy. Kealy, who is not a member of the new One BC party, said Thursday that he was "completely fine" with the RCMP being called to investigate. 'I've got nothing to hide if they want to talk to me,' said Kealy. "I have chosen to leave it to people that are in the position to properly investigate this thoroughly and to look into whether or not they're allegations being made falsely," said Kealy. Armstrong said on social media on Wednesday that "Rustad and Eby can throw around the accusations all they like but rest assured, the truth will always prevail." Brodie has said Rustad and his team "rigged" the Conservatives' March annual general meeting that endorsed his "Team Rustad" slate of executive candidates, allegedly stacking the meeting with South Asian supporters paid "to vote the way Mr. Rustad wanted." Rustad's letter denied any wrongdoing at the meeting.
