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Globe and Mail
15 hours ago
- Politics
- Globe and Mail
Trump's strategy on Iran: Is it TACO or FOMO?
Walking a dog is against the law in Tehran. The rule has not been widely enforced, but in recent weeks officials in Iran signalled that the ban would be given bite, and extended to other parts of the country. The regime frowns on pet dogs as unclean, and avatars of westernization. Also forbidden: riding in a car with a dog. The prosecutor in Mashhad recently said that 'dog walking is a clear crime' and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the theocrat atop the theocratic state, said in 2017 that having dogs as pets is 'reprehensible' and 'forbidden.' None of the above speaks to how far along Iran is in building a nuclear weapon, or whether Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was right to have launched an attack, or whether U.S. President Donald Trump should join in. Instead, I share this little tidbit as a small insight into the big problem of ending this war, and ending it well. There are three players in this conflict, each with his own obsessions and his own degree of disconnection from reality. It starts with Iran, but does not end there. Collapse of Iranian regime could have unintended consequences for U.S. and Israel Trump says Iran's Supreme Leader is 'an easy target,' demands country's unconditional surrender Israel's military and intelligence agencies have a history of tactical genius, and this week's feats take that to new heights. But even the smartest bomb is just a tool, not a strategy. And Israel's tactical feats have been repeatedly squandered by a government with blinkered strategic vision. After more than 20 months of fighting in Gaza, Mr. Netanyahu has no plan to end the war, and no plan for the day after. It's a complete strategic void. Has he got a better idea for how to end this war with Iran? Then there's the U.S. President. With uncharacteristic prudence, he initially distanced himself from the Israeli strikes on Iran. That lasted a day. Having been mocked on tariffs as a TACO – Trump Always Chickens Out – he suddenly appeared to be seized by FOMO – the fear of missing out on Israel's success. On Tuesday, he wrote on social media that 'we now have complete and total control of the skies over Iran.' It was unclear if 'we' was foreshadowing or a Freudian slip. Surrounded by a cabinet of yes-men and a confederacy of dunces, it's a given that Mr. Trump is not getting the best advice. That means America is the second party to this conflict whose strategic vision may not be 20/20. And then there's the third player: Mr. Khamenei. Having spent decades fighting the decadence of the flesh – human and canine – while crushing any signs of popular opposition, his government is half Handmaid's Tale, half Sopranos. But he is now in hiding, his closest military advisers are now obituaries, and instead of leading Friday prayers with rote recitations of Death to America, Death to Israel, yada yada yada – the last speech posted on his website before the Israeli attack was titled 'Based on a definite divine decree, the Zionist regime is collapsing' – he's filming videos in an undisclosed location. He's 86 years old, in poor health, and has long had half his mind in the afterlife. Mr. Khamenei is also not likely to be the most level-headed decision maker. The best-case scenario is that Mr. Trump is threatening FOMO with the aim of getting to TACO; that Mr. Khamenei responds by agreeing to give up on nuclear weapons in return for an end to the war; and that Mr. Trump compels Mr. Netanyahu to embrace diplomatic success. In other words, the best hope is that Mr. Trump is bluffing, but that Mr. Khamenei isn't certain of that – and in any case his regime's survival is in peril from Israeli strikes alone – so he agrees to make the big concession. This whole process, however, involves multiple steps, and multiple opportunities for things to go wrong. And what happens if Mr. Khamenei calls Mr. Trump's bluff? On Thursday afternoon, the White House released a statement from the President: 'Based on the fact that there's a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks.' That's just about the most sensible thing Mr. Trump could have said. Given his track record, he may yet contradict or undermine it. He may become impatient and lose focus. But if he can stick to it, it offers both a path forward and the time to walk it. A win-win, ending the war and Iran's nuclear ambitions, without U.S. military intervention, is, for the moment at least, not impossible.
Bloomberg
3 days ago
- Politics
- Bloomberg
All the Ways Iran's Regime Keeps a Tight Grip on Power
By Updated on Save Since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, Iran has been a theocratic republic — and a constant thorn for the countries it marked out as enemies, Israel most of all. In launching the biggest military assault on Iran since that country's war with Iraq in the 1980s, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had more on his mind than the destruction of its nuclear program. Addressing the Iranian people directly on June 13 after the Israeli air assault began, he suggested they should seize the moment to rise up and overthrow their leaders.
Wall Street Journal
4 days ago
- Politics
- Wall Street Journal
Iran Looks to Trump and Nuclear Talks as Escape Hatch as Attacks Intensify
With Iran's air defenses shredded, allies sidelined and arsenal of missiles running down, the country's theocratic leaders face the prospect of having to submit to a tougher negotiation on their nuclear program as their only way out of a worsening situation. Iran's next steps could determine whether the theocratic regime will overcome what is arguably its gravest crisis since its war with Iraq in the 1980s. Tehran is looking to talks as a possible escape hatch, a way of saving face and preserving its theocracy, said diplomats and analysts.
Washington Post
6 days ago
- Politics
- Washington Post
Anger and worry mix in Iran's capital after retaliatory strikes against Israel
TEHRAN, Iran — Anger mixed with worry as Iranians in the capital of Tehran woke up Saturday to images of their country's retaliatory attacks on Israel. Iranian state television, long controlled by hard-line supporters of the country's theocracy, repeatedly aired footage of missile strikes on Tel Aviv throughout the morning. The broadcaster also showed people cheering in front of a large screen set up in Tehran to follow the strikes as if they were watching a soccer match.
Fox News
7 days ago
- Politics
- Fox News
McCaul says Israel strikes are 'perfect opportunity' for Iranians to overthrow Islamic regime
EXCLUSIVE: A senior lawmaker in the U.S. House of Representatives said the current conflict with Israel and Iran could be a singular opportunity for Iranians to overthrow their authoritarian Islamic government. "Now that their top leadership has been taken out, if there's ever a time for the people to rise up against this theocracy, I would think the conditions are set," Rep. Michael McCaul, R-Texas, told Fox News Digital on Friday. McCaul was part of a group of lawmakers in the Middle East late last month. Part of that trip was in Israel, where the congressional delegation met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and others. "I think this is the perfect opportunity – it would have been better if, I don't know what level of coordination took place, but I mean, when an event like this happens – to have this theocracy that's in power, out of power, and liberate the people of Iran," McCaul said. "The majority do not like the Ayatollah. There's a real opportunity for that to just end." Israel unleashed a barrage of airstrikes in and around Tehran beginning Thursday night Eastern Time. The Israeli government said the strikes were pre-emptive, and that Tehran was approaching nuclear weapon capabilities. "They were very close to a nuclear bomb," McCaul said. Israel said it hit Iranian nuclear sites, and that its strikes killed multiple senior Iranian military commanders and nuclear scientists. Iran responded by launching missiles toward Israeli territory on Friday afternoon. McCaul said it was a "major setback" for Iran but that he was sure that officials in Tehran would respond. "When we were in the region, they felt certain that Iran would strike our military sites in Saudi, Jordan and the UAE," he said. "The big talk also at that time was, give CENTCOM time to get prepared in the region to get all of its strategic assets in place for a response. And my understanding is … all of our bases and military sites and embassies are on high alert." The Texas Republican also recalled what he now believes were telling signs that some kind of military operation was imminent. While in Israel last month, McCaul said he asked Netanyahu about reports that Iran was preparing a nuclear strike. "And he said, 'If you don't fight, you die,' He said that several times in the context of striking Iran," McCaul said. "He said that, 'I will strike Iran with or without you.'" "I said, 'Well, sir, we need you to coordinate with us. Whether or not the president decides to do this with you, you need to coordinate with the United States, our allies and partners in the region.'" Indeed, President Donald Trump told Fox News Channel's chief political anchor Bret Baier on Thursday he had prior knowledge that Israel was going to conduct pre-emptive strikes on Iran. "Iran cannot have a nuclear bomb, and we are hoping to get back to the negotiating table. We will see. There are several people in leadership in Iran that will not be coming back," Trump said. Trump said the strike happened on Day 61 after Iran had a 60-day window to make a deal with the U.S. to contain its nuclear enrichment. He also said he hoped Iran would come back to the negotiating table after the attack. But McCaul was not optimistic Tehran would agree to sufficient standards. "I just, I have little faith in the negotiations, to be honest with you," he said. It's not clear as of now whether those talks will resume. But if they were to fall through again, McCaul said, Iranians would have incentive to push for a new government "once and for all." Meanwhile, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has promised a "legitimate and powerful response" to Israel's strikes.
