Trump's strategy on Iran: Is it TACO or FOMO?
Walking a dog is against the law in Tehran. The rule has not been widely enforced, but in recent weeks officials in Iran signalled that the ban would be given bite, and extended to other parts of the country. The regime frowns on pet dogs as unclean, and avatars of westernization. Also forbidden: riding in a car with a dog.
The prosecutor in Mashhad recently said that 'dog walking is a clear crime' and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the theocrat atop the theocratic state, said in 2017 that having dogs as pets is 'reprehensible' and 'forbidden.'
None of the above speaks to how far along Iran is in building a nuclear weapon, or whether Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was right to have launched an attack, or whether U.S. President Donald Trump should join in.
Instead, I share this little tidbit as a small insight into the big problem of ending this war, and ending it well. There are three players in this conflict, each with his own obsessions and his own degree of disconnection from reality. It starts with Iran, but does not end there.
Collapse of Iranian regime could have unintended consequences for U.S. and Israel
Trump says Iran's Supreme Leader is 'an easy target,' demands country's unconditional surrender
Israel's military and intelligence agencies have a history of tactical genius, and this week's feats take that to new heights. But even the smartest bomb is just a tool, not a strategy. And Israel's tactical feats have been repeatedly squandered by a government with blinkered strategic vision.
After more than 20 months of fighting in Gaza, Mr. Netanyahu has no plan to end the war, and no plan for the day after. It's a complete strategic void. Has he got a better idea for how to end this war with Iran?
Then there's the U.S. President. With uncharacteristic prudence, he initially distanced himself from the Israeli strikes on Iran. That lasted a day. Having been mocked on tariffs as a TACO – Trump Always Chickens Out – he suddenly appeared to be seized by FOMO – the fear of missing out on Israel's success. On Tuesday, he wrote on social media that 'we now have complete and total control of the skies over Iran.' It was unclear if 'we' was foreshadowing or a Freudian slip.
Surrounded by a cabinet of yes-men and a confederacy of dunces, it's a given that Mr. Trump is not getting the best advice. That means America is the second party to this conflict whose strategic vision may not be 20/20.
And then there's the third player: Mr. Khamenei. Having spent decades fighting the decadence of the flesh – human and canine – while crushing any signs of popular opposition, his government is half Handmaid's Tale, half Sopranos.
But he is now in hiding, his closest military advisers are now obituaries, and instead of leading Friday prayers with rote recitations of Death to America, Death to Israel, yada yada yada – the last speech posted on his website before the Israeli attack was titled 'Based on a definite divine decree, the Zionist regime is collapsing' – he's filming videos in an undisclosed location. He's 86 years old, in poor health, and has long had half his mind in the afterlife.
Mr. Khamenei is also not likely to be the most level-headed decision maker.
The best-case scenario is that Mr. Trump is threatening FOMO with the aim of getting to TACO; that Mr. Khamenei responds by agreeing to give up on nuclear weapons in return for an end to the war; and that Mr. Trump compels Mr. Netanyahu to embrace diplomatic success.
In other words, the best hope is that Mr. Trump is bluffing, but that Mr. Khamenei isn't certain of that – and in any case his regime's survival is in peril from Israeli strikes alone – so he agrees to make the big concession.
This whole process, however, involves multiple steps, and multiple opportunities for things to go wrong. And what happens if Mr. Khamenei calls Mr. Trump's bluff?
On Thursday afternoon, the White House released a statement from the President: 'Based on the fact that there's a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks.'
That's just about the most sensible thing Mr. Trump could have said. Given his track record, he may yet contradict or undermine it. He may become impatient and lose focus. But if he can stick to it, it offers both a path forward and the time to walk it.
A win-win, ending the war and Iran's nuclear ambitions, without U.S. military intervention, is, for the moment at least, not impossible.
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