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Observer
5 days ago
- Business
- Observer
Israel's war with Iran may last weeks, not days
When Israel and Iran clashed last year, they fought in short and contained bursts that usually ended within hours, and both sides looked for off-ramps that allowed tensions to ebb. Since Israel started a new round of fighting on Friday, the two countries have said they will continue for as long as necessary, broadening the scope of their attacks and leading to much higher casualty counts in both countries. This time, the conflict appears set to last for at least a week, with both Israel and Iran ignoring routes toward de-confliction. FORCED TALKS Israel seems motivated to continue until the destruction of Iran's nuclear enrichment programme, either by force or renewed negotiations. Yet Iran has shown no sign of voluntarily ending enrichment, a process crucial to building a nuclear bomb, and Israel has no known ability to destroy a pivotal enrichment site that is buried deep underground. 'We're weeks rather than days away from this ending,' said Daniel B. Shapiro, who oversaw Middle Eastern affairs at the Pentagon until January. 'Israel will keep going until, one way or another, Iran no longer retains an enrichment capability,' added Shapiro, now a fellow at the Atlantic Council, a Washington-based research group. 'It's now clear that if Israel leaves this unaddressed, its campaign will have failed.' Want to stay updated on what's happening in Iran and Israel? Sign up for Your Places: Global Update, and we'll send our latest coverage to your inbox. While Israel has easily struck Iran's main enrichment site at Natanz, central Iran, it lacks the American-made 'bunker-buster' bombs needed to destroy a smaller subterranean site dug deep into a mountain near Fordo, northern Iran. Israeli officials hope that their strikes on other targets — including Iran's top military commanders, nuclear scientists and its energy industry — will inflict enough pain to encourage Iran to willingly end operations at Fordo. For now, Iran seems far from such a capitulation, even if Israel has shown increasing dominance in Iranian airspace, according to Sanam Vakil, who leads analysis of the Middle East at Chatham House, a London-based research group. Though Israel hopes to prompt its collapse, the Iranian government remains in full control of Iran and still has substantial stocks of ballistic missiles, even if Israel has limited its ability to fire some of them. 'I don't see any surrender coming from Tehran right now — there are no white flags being waved,' said Dr Vakil. 'It's very hard to see Iran walking back its enrichment rights while Iran's programme still looks operational and Iran is intact as a state,' she added. 'Their goal is to survive, to inflict damage and show their resilience.' TRUMP's STAND Much depends on how President Trump reacts. Unlike Israel, the US has the munitions and the aircraft to destroy Fordo. Analysts like Shapiro say that Trump could consider such an approach if Iran chooses to accelerate its efforts to build a nuclear bomb instead of reaching a compromise. 'That will create a critical decision point for Trump, about whether the United States should intervene,' Shapiro said. It may also now be easier for Trump to intervene without serious security consequences, given that Israel's attacks have already degraded Iran's defensive abilities. Others say that Trump is likelier to avoid direct confrontation with Iran unless the Iranian military shifts its attacks from Israel to US interests and personnel in the Middle East, narrowing Trump's room for manoeuvre. Since Friday, Iran has avoided providing such a pretext for US involvement. The president's statements since Friday indicate that his current preference is to use Israel's military gains as leverage for renewed talks with Tehran. Trump has overseen negotiations with Iran, hoping that Tehran would agree to end its enrichment programme without Israel's military intervention. Those talks stumbled after Iran refused to back down. In comments over the weekend, Trump suggested that Iran, chastened by Israel's attacks, might finally make compromises that it had not previously considered. As a result, some analysts say that Trump could press Israel to end its attacks — when and if he judges that Iran has become more malleable. 'This will end when Trump decides to end it, which will probably happen when he thinks Iran is ready to compromise,' said Yoel Guzansky, an expert on Iran at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. IRAN U_TURN? Such a U-turn has historical precedent, even if it feels unlikely for now, experts said. The Iranian leadership made a similarly unexpected compromise at the end of the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, according to Meir Javedanfar, who teaches Iranian studies at Reichman University in Israel. After rejecting numerous offers to end the war, Ayatollah Khomeini eventually agreed to a deal after the costs of the war became too great, Dr Javedanfar said. 'Khomeini made a 180-degree change,' he said. 'This is again what Israel is hoping for.' But history also suggests this may take time. The deal that ended the Iran-Iraq war took eight years to reach.
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Business Standard
06-06-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
Xi's message to Trump: Rein in the hawks trying to derail the truce
By Daisuke Wakabayashi and Berry Wang During his phone call with President Trump, Xi Jinping leaned on a maritime analogy to try to salvage the fragile trade truce that seemed to be fracturing from a series of escalating punitive economic measures. The Chinese leader compared the relationship between the United States and China to a large ship, with the two men serving as powerful captains holding the rudder firmly to maintain the proper course. The analogy also came with a warning. Do not let others steer the ship off course and jeopardize the relationship. For weeks, the White House seemed to openly lobby for a direct conversation between the two leaders — a point underscored by China stating that Mr. Xi had agreed to the call on Thursday at Mr. Trump's behest. With the United States ratcheting up the pressure on Beijing with technology and other restrictions, China may have acquiesced partly out of concern in Beijing that the China hawks in Mr. Trump's administration were succeeding in undermining the truce, analysts said. 'China is quite concerned about this,' said Wu Xinbo, the dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai. 'There has to be communication at the leadership level to stop the momentum of the rapid deterioration of the US-China relationship.' The call between Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi came at an especially precarious moment. Less than one month after the two countries agreed to roll back punishing tariffs for 90 days and negotiate a trade deal, the truce seemed to be crumbling. Want to stay updated on what's happening in China? Sign up for Your Places: Global Update, and we'll send our latest coverage to your inbox. China continued to throttle the exports of rare earth minerals, throwing the supply chains of US manufacturers into disarray. In response, the United States imposed restrictions on the sale of chip design software to China. It barred American companies from using artificial intelligence chips from the Chinese technology giant Huawei. It suspended some sales to China of components and software used in jet engines. In addition, the Trump administration proposed a plan to revoke visas for some Chinese students. Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center, a Washington think tank, said China saw an opportunity to use 'top leader diplomacy' to send this message to Mr. Trump directly: 'Hold off your hawks. The responsibility is on the top leaders. If you want a good relationship, don't let your cabinet members or team run freely with their crazy ideas.' Mr. Wu, of Fudan University, said the measures taken by the United States since last month's trade agreement demonstrated how different members of the Trump administration were pursuing their own agendas, pointing to the Commerce Department imposing export controls and the State Department saying it would revoke visas. China has maintained a tough posture, refusing to back down in response to Mr. Trump's tariffs, unlike other countries that have treaded carefully so as not to antagonize the United States. In April, before the truce, Beijing engaged in a tit-for-tat tariff escalation, raising import duties on American goods to 125 percent after the United States pushed its taxes on Chinese imports to 145 percent. China appears ready to withstand the hardship from a prolonged trade war with the United States, with the economic levers to make life equally difficult for Americans and test Mr. Trump's resolve. At the same time, China has its own economic vulnerabilities and probably wants to avoid a full decoupling with the United States. The country's economy is struggling to rebound from a real estate crisis. Already grappling with high levels of youth unemployment, China's manufacturing sector, a key provider of jobs, could bear the brunt of a trade war that closes off the US market and escalates fears in the rest of the world about the flood of inexpensive Chinese imports. China had resisted overtures from Mr. Trump for direct engagement with Mr. Xi for months, reflecting Beijing's cautious approach. Mr. Xi may have accepted such a call now to buy his government more time to prepare for a prolonged fight. The two leaders seemed to take away different things from the call. In a post on social media, Mr. Trump implied that they had resolved the dispute over the export of critical minerals, but China's readout mentioned no such thing. China's official summary included a warning from Mr. Xi to Mr. Trump that the United States should handle the Taiwan issue 'prudently' to prevent a dangerous conflict, while Mr. Trump characterized the call as being focused almost entirely on trade. China has responded angrily to remarks by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth last week urging America's Asian allies to work with the United States to deter China from trying to seize Taiwan, a self-governed island democracy. Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi did agree that both sides would work once again to implement the agreement from last month and that further talks for a more permanent deal would proceed. Mr. Trump also said the talks with China will now include Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, in addition to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Jamieson Greer, the US Trade Representative. And Mr. Xi urged the United States to withdraw 'negative measures' against China. To some extent, China could claim a win from the call, as Mr. Trump seemed to soften his administration's stance on Chinese student visas. Last week, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, one of Mr. Trump's hawkish advisers, said the United States would 'aggressively' revoke the visas of Chinese students, specifically those associated with the Communist Party or studying in critical fields. But Mr. Trump, on Thursday, rolled out the red carpet. 'Chinese students are coming. No problem,' Mr. Trump said during a briefing from the Oval Office. 'It's our honor to have them.' Before the call, Mr. Trump wrote on social media that Mr. Xi was 'VERY TOUGH, AND EXTREMELY HARD TO MAKE A DEAL WITH.' In his summary of the call, Mr. Trump sounded gracious, noting that the two leaders had invited each other to visit their respective countries. Scott Kennedy, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington research group, said the call could signal that the two countries had shifted into a 'fragile equilibrium' after having demonstrated their willingness to turn up the pressure on each other. Mr. Kennedy noted that China is the only country to win concessions from the United States since Mr. Trump launched his global 'reciprocal' tariff campaign in April. 'I think they feel they probably figured Trump out and that this is a manageable relationship,' he said. 'If this agreement falls apart again, they know what buttons to push to make the Trump administration take notice.'
