Xi's message to Trump: Rein in the hawks trying to derail the truce

By Daisuke Wakabayashi and Berry Wang
During his phone call with President Trump, Xi Jinping leaned on a maritime analogy to try to salvage the fragile trade truce that seemed to be fracturing from a series of escalating punitive economic measures.
The Chinese leader compared the relationship between the United States and China to a large ship, with the two men serving as powerful captains holding the rudder firmly to maintain the proper course. The analogy also came with a warning.
Do not let others steer the ship off course and jeopardize the relationship.
For weeks, the White House seemed to openly lobby for a direct conversation between the two leaders — a point underscored by China stating that Mr. Xi had agreed to the call on Thursday at Mr. Trump's behest. With the United States ratcheting up the pressure on Beijing with technology and other restrictions, China may have acquiesced partly out of concern in Beijing that the China hawks in Mr. Trump's administration were succeeding in undermining the truce, analysts said.
'China is quite concerned about this,' said Wu Xinbo, the dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai. 'There has to be communication at the leadership level to stop the momentum of the rapid deterioration of the US-China relationship.'
The call between Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi came at an especially precarious moment. Less than one month after the two countries agreed to roll back punishing tariffs for 90 days and negotiate a trade deal, the truce seemed to be crumbling.
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China continued to throttle the exports of rare earth minerals, throwing the supply chains of US manufacturers into disarray. In response, the United States imposed restrictions on the sale of chip design software to China. It barred American companies from using artificial intelligence chips from the Chinese technology giant Huawei. It suspended some sales to China of components and software used in jet engines. In addition, the Trump administration proposed a plan to revoke visas for some Chinese students.
Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center, a Washington think tank, said China saw an opportunity to use 'top leader diplomacy' to send this message to Mr. Trump directly: 'Hold off your hawks. The responsibility is on the top leaders. If you want a good relationship, don't let your cabinet members or team run freely with their crazy ideas.'
Mr. Wu, of Fudan University, said the measures taken by the United States since last month's trade agreement demonstrated how different members of the Trump administration were pursuing their own agendas, pointing to the Commerce Department imposing export controls and the State Department saying it would revoke visas.
China has maintained a tough posture, refusing to back down in response to Mr. Trump's tariffs, unlike other countries that have treaded carefully so as not to antagonize the United States. In April, before the truce, Beijing engaged in a tit-for-tat tariff escalation, raising import duties on American goods to 125 percent after the United States pushed its taxes on Chinese imports to 145 percent. China appears ready to withstand the hardship from a prolonged trade war with the United States, with the economic levers to make life equally difficult for Americans and test Mr. Trump's resolve.
At the same time, China has its own economic vulnerabilities and probably wants to avoid a full decoupling with the United States. The country's economy is struggling to rebound from a real estate crisis. Already grappling with high levels of youth unemployment, China's manufacturing sector, a key provider of jobs, could bear the brunt of a trade war that closes off the US market and escalates fears in the rest of the world about the flood of inexpensive Chinese imports.
China had resisted overtures from Mr. Trump for direct engagement with Mr. Xi for months, reflecting Beijing's cautious approach. Mr. Xi may have accepted such a call now to buy his government more time to prepare for a prolonged fight.
The two leaders seemed to take away different things from the call. In a post on social media, Mr. Trump implied that they had resolved the dispute over the export of critical minerals, but China's readout mentioned no such thing.
China's official summary included a warning from Mr. Xi to Mr. Trump that the United States should handle the Taiwan issue 'prudently' to prevent a dangerous conflict, while Mr. Trump characterized the call as being focused almost entirely on trade. China has responded angrily to remarks by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth last week urging America's Asian allies to work with the United States to deter China from trying to seize Taiwan, a self-governed island democracy.
Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi did agree that both sides would work once again to implement the agreement from last month and that further talks for a more permanent deal would proceed. Mr. Trump also said the talks with China will now include Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, in addition to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Jamieson Greer, the US Trade Representative. And Mr. Xi urged the United States to withdraw 'negative measures' against China.
To some extent, China could claim a win from the call, as Mr. Trump seemed to soften his administration's stance on Chinese student visas. Last week, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, one of Mr. Trump's hawkish advisers, said the United States would 'aggressively' revoke the visas of Chinese students, specifically those associated with the Communist Party or studying in critical fields. But Mr. Trump, on Thursday, rolled out the red carpet.
'Chinese students are coming. No problem,' Mr. Trump said during a briefing from the Oval Office. 'It's our honor to have them.'
Before the call, Mr. Trump wrote on social media that Mr. Xi was 'VERY TOUGH, AND EXTREMELY HARD TO MAKE A DEAL WITH.' In his summary of the call, Mr. Trump sounded gracious, noting that the two leaders had invited each other to visit their respective countries.
Scott Kennedy, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington research group, said the call could signal that the two countries had shifted into a 'fragile equilibrium' after having demonstrated their willingness to turn up the pressure on each other.
Mr. Kennedy noted that China is the only country to win concessions from the United States since Mr. Trump launched his global 'reciprocal' tariff campaign in April.
'I think they feel they probably figured Trump out and that this is a manageable relationship,' he said. 'If this agreement falls apart again, they know what buttons to push to make the Trump administration take notice.'

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