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Al Arabiya
2 days ago
- Politics
- Al Arabiya
Iran-Israel war could have ‘harmful' migration impact on Europe, Erdogan warns
The Iran-Israel air war could spark a surge in migration that could harm Europe and the region, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned Friday. Israel, saying Iran was on the verge of developing a nuclear weapon, launched a massive wave of strikes a week ago, triggering an immediate retaliation. 'The spiral of violence triggered by Israel's attacks could harm the region and Europe in terms of migration and the possibility of nuclear leakage,' his office quoted him as saying in a phone conversation with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. Erdogan said the solution to the nuclear disagreements with Iran was 'through negotiations.' He said the violence had 'raised the threat to regional security to the highest level' and Turkey was 'making efforts to end the conflict.' Despite the escalating confrontation, a Turkish defense ministry source said Thursday there had been 'no increase' in numbers crossing from Iran. The Turkish authorities have not released any figures. AFP correspondents at the main Kapikoy border crossing near the eastern Turkish city of Van reported seeing several hundred people crossing in both directions, with a customs official saying the numbers were 'nothing unusual.' During a visit to the frontier on Wednesday, Defense Minister Yasar Guler said 'security measures at our borders have been increased.'
Arab News
2 days ago
- Politics
- Arab News
Iran-Israel war could have ‘harmful' migration impact on Europe, Erdogan warns
ISTANBUL: The Iran-Israel air war could spark a surge in migration that could harm Europe and the region, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned Friday. Israel, saying Iran was on the verge of developing a nuclear weapon, launched a massive wave of strikes a week ago, triggering an immediate retaliation. 'The spiral of violence triggered by Israel's attacks could harm the region and Europe in terms of migration and the possibility of nuclear leakage,' his office quoted him as saying in a phone conversation with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. Erdogan said the solution to the nuclear disagreements with Iran was 'through negotiations.' He said the violence had 'raised the threat to regional security to the highest level' and Turkiye was 'making efforts to end the conflict.' Despite the escalating confrontation, a Turkish defense ministry source said Thursday there had been 'no increase' in numbers crossing from Iran. The Turkish authorities have not released any figures. AFP correspondents at the main Kapikoy border crossing near the eastern Turkish city of Van reported seeing several hundred people crossing in both directions, with a customs official saying the numbers were 'nothing unusual.' During a visit to the frontier on Wednesday, Defense Minister Yasar Guler said 'security measures at our borders have been increased.'
Arab News
13-06-2025
- Business
- Arab News
EU brings Turkiye into its security fold
Turkiye has long insisted on being a part of Europe's defense programs and having a say in how Europe shapes its security. Yet, for decades, European states viewed Turkiye mostly through the lens of its EU membership bid and political disagreements. But today, geopolitical matters — especially growing security threats — are shifting that perspective. Now, both Ankara and Brussels recognize that they face similar security concerns. This growing sense of mutual insecurity was highlighted this month, when Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Guler said that European allies must not only spend more on defense, but also do so wisely — by including Turkiye's fast-growing defense industry in their planning. Although many EU states have long been hesitant to increase their defense spending, US President Donald Trump pushed them to rethink and open their wallets. One major step was last month's creation of a €150 billion ($173 billion) EU defense fund, known as the Security Action for Europe scheme, which is aimed at strengthening its arms industry. A few years ago, the idea of integrating Turkish defense companies into Europe's security systems might have seemed unrealistic. But several factors have changed that. Turkiye's falling-out with the US over the F-35 program, increasing regional threats, Russia's aggression in Ukraine and Europe's doubts about long-term US security commitments have all helped bring Ankara and the EU closer together and make EU-Turkiye defense cooperation more appealing. The combination of these factors has created a major shift in their relationship, which is now reflected in more regular meetings between Turkish and European defense officials. Turkiye has been building strong bilateral defense ties with individual EU countries for some time Dr. Sinem Cengiz Turkiye has been building strong bilateral defense ties with individual EU countries for some time. The recent cooperation between Italy's Leonardo and Turkiye's Baykar — the company behind the well-known Bayraktar drones — is a significant example. Ankara is already joining several EU defense initiatives, such as the European Sky Shield Initiative. It is also involved in joint projects — like making ammunition with Poland, supplying military vehicles to Romania and working on naval programs with Portugal. This bilateral cooperation signals a new type of partnership between Turkiye and the EU states that goes beyond traditional parameters. Turkiye's success in building a strong defense industry — especially with its popular Bayraktar TB2 drone — has impressed many in Europe and boosted Ankara's leverage. Turkiye also has key strategic advantages. It has NATO's second-largest army and a central position near the Black Sea, Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East — areas where Europe needs security support. Its ability to help counterbalance Russian influence adds to its importance. With these advantages, Turkiye not only wants to sell its defense products to EU states, it wants a real seat at the table, shaping Europe's defense strategy and becoming part of the continent's industrial defense base. However, this potential partnership comes with some challenges. Not all EU countries are on the same page when it comes to Turkiye's integration into Europe's defense programs. The main challengers are Greece and Cyprus. Their concerns are not related to today's security realities, but rather to long-standing issues in Turkish-Greek relations. Despite these divisions, the insecurity caused by the broader global uncertainty is pushing many EU countries to move ahead with defense partnerships with Turkiye. They are trying to persuade Greece to accept closer cooperation with Turkiye in this field, emphasizing the bigger picture: a stronger and more self-reliant European security system. Thus, the pros of integrating Turkiye into EU defense programs are related to Turkiye's geographical position, its military strength, growing defense industry and mutual security concerns in a time of global instability. On the other hand, the cons and challenges are related to the fragmented EU approach. While some member states prioritize security and pragmatism, seeing Turkiye as essential for regional stability, some have long-standing issues with the country. Moreover, some remain wary of certain Turkish foreign policy moves that clash with EU interests, such as in Libya, the Eastern Mediterranean and Syria. Genuine political will and a clear sense of mutual benefit is required to achieve strategic goals in the defense realm Dr. Sinem Cengiz Given these challenges, genuine political will and a clear sense of mutual benefit is required to achieve strategic goals in the defense realm. What is meant by mutual benefit is that, while the EU keeps talking about the importance of Turkiye's role in European security, it is not offering any commitments relating to Ankara's membership of the bloc. The EU's often ambiguous approach raises questions about its sincerity and how it perceives Turkiye. European heavyweights such as Germany — which sees Turkiye's support to Europe's security as significant — often seem to turn a deaf ear and a blind eye when it comes to the issue of Turkish membership. Turkiye's experience with the 2016 migrant deal with the EU further deepens this skepticism. At the time, the agreement had raised hopes in Ankara that Turkiye's role within the EU framework would be strengthened. However, several factors have made both sides doubtful about the other's direction. According to Ankara, inclusion in EU defense planning not only strengthens its own economy and geopolitical standing, but it also increases its bargaining power in other policy areas with the EU. From Turkiye's perspective, defense ties could serve as a steppingstone to resetting broader relations with the EU after years of political friction. There are now even larger expectations that are likely to guide the Turkiye-EU defense partnership. Thus, if a new era is to begin, lessons from the past must guide the new EU approach so that this momentum will not end up as a missed opportunity. • Dr. Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkiye's relations with the Middle East. X: @SinemCngz
DW
11-06-2025
- Politics
- DW
Just good neighbors? What nations helping Syria really want – DW – 06/11/2025
Aid, money, political cover — Syria's neighbors are providing a lot to the war-torn country. But the likes of Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the US are obviously not just helping Syria because they're benevolent and kind. With strings attached — that is how almost all the recent foreign aid and assistance into Syria should be seen. After the December 2024 rebel offensive that toppled the country's decades-long Assad family dictatorship, various neighboring states have stepped in to help Syria recover from 14 years of brutal civil war. There is a lot of vaunted talk of humanitarian assistance, Arab unity, international development and regional security. But as in any other diplomatic sphere, most of the countries involved are also acting in their own self-interest. So, what are they doing in Syria and why? Turkey: Biggest winner Turkey has often been described as the "biggest winner" after the ousting of the Assad regime in a lightning offensive led by the rebel group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS. "The [HTS] group had long cultivated a close working relationship with Ankara because the rebels controlled Idlib, a province on the Turkish border in northern Syria," Asli Aydintasbas, a senior policy fellow and expert on Turkey at the European Council on Foreign Relations, or ECFR, explained recently . HTS has gone on to form an interim government, keeping some of the most powerful ministries — such as defense, foreign affairs and interior — for its own members or close associates. This puts the Turkish government, with existing ties to HTS, in a powerful position. "Turkey, first and foremost, in the mid- and long term, is interested in the stabilization of Syria," Sinem Adar, a researcher at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, told the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies . "It doesn't want a failed state at its border." Earlier this month, Turkish defense minister Yasar Guler (pictured) said Turkish soldiers will stay in Syria for the time being Image: SIMON WOHLFAHRT/AFP There are currently around 20,000 Turkish troops in northern Syria, there has been talk of a Turkish-Syrian defense pact, as well as plans to set up Turkish air and naval bases inside Syria. Earlier this month, Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Guler told journalists his country will help train the new Syrian military. In the shorter term, one of Turkey's primary objectives was to counter Syrian Kurdish forces, who controlled large parts of Syria's northeast during the war. Turkey considers these to be allied with the militant Kurdish Worker's Party, or PKK. For decades, the latter was engaged in a violent, armed struggle against Turkey, for Kurdish rights, but announced the end of their insurgency earlier this year. This is why Turkey has backed the formation of a centralized government in Syria, rather than a federation of semi-autonomous areas run by different Syrian communities, including the Kurds. For now, Turkey appears to have got its way: Syria's Kurds have agreed to be part of the central, HTS-led interim government and say their troops will join the new Syrian army. There are also economic opportunities for Turkey in Syria. The neighboring country was already providing a lot of consumer goods in HTS-controlled areas and also has a large construction sector that would benefit from rebuilding in Syria. In fact, stock prices for Turkish construction sector businesses rose around 3% after the ouster of the Assad regime. A more prosperous Syria would also mean Syrian refugees in Turkey, who have become a tricky political issue, would be more likely to return home Image: Ahmed Deeb/dpa/picture alliance The Gulf states: Money and power Various Gulf states have come to Syria's financial and reputational rescue over the past few months. Saudi Arabia and Qatar paid off its $15.5 million (€13.6 million) debt to the World Bank, Qatar will pay around $87 million in salaries for Syrian public servants and some of Syria's first major development deals have been with United Arab Emirates, Qatari and Turkish companies. Saudi Arabian leaders also successfully pushed for the lifting of sanctions on Syria and, although it was never officially confirmed, the UAE allegedly helped defuse tensions between Syria and neighboring Israel. "The [Gulf] states are exerting their leverage on Syria's need of financial resources to entrench economic and political alliances with the new leadership in Damascus," Eleonora Ardemagni, a senior research fellow at the Italian Institute for International Political Studies, explained in a June analysis . "[Gulf] states' interest lies in strengthening their political, security and economic ties with Damascus and using this to address questions that matter to them, such as trafficking of the Captagon drug and counterterrorism," Emily Tasinato, an ECFR fellow researching the Gulf region, also wrote recently. For Gulf leaders, there is also emphasis on filling the geopolitical power vacuum that arose after the end of the Assad regime. Previously Iran and Russia were Assad's biggest supporters and Gulf states, with mostly Sunni Muslim leaderships, were happy to see Iran, a Shiite Muslim theocracy and perennial foe, pushed out. Saudi Arabia is also concerned about Turkey's influence, Ardemagni suggested. After meeting with Syrian leader Ahmad al-Sharaa (right) in Saudi Arabia, President Trump (center) said he would lift sanctions on Syria partially because Saudi prince Mohammed bin Salman (left) asked him to Image: IMAGO US: A brand new alliance? US President Donald Trump previously called for American troops to get out of Syria. "This is not our fight," he wrote on social media last December. But that attitude seems to have changed following talks with the leaders of Saudi Arabia and Turkey, both of whom Trump professes to like personally. During the civil war, around 2,000 US soldiers were stationed alongside Syrian Kurds, in the ongoing fight against the extremist "Islamic State," or "IS," group. Currently a drawdown is underway, with 500 having already left as Syrian-Kurdish fighters integrate into the general Syrian army. However, this month, there have also been reports that a US military delegation will soon come to Damascus to make a deal to transition the previously unauthorized American presence into an authorized one. In an interview with Syria TV last month, US State Department spokesperson Michael Mitchell said it was too early for the US to withdraw completely because of ongoing concerns about the "IS" group. The US was ready to begin a "new era" in its relationship with Syria, Mitchell added. Observers have speculated the US could actually take on an even bigger role in Syria in the future. This would, they argue, counter Russian influence and potentially even lead to some kind of Syrian-Israeli detente. Iran, Russia: The biggest losers Both countries are often described as having lost the most after the ousting of the Assad regime. Both previously had a significant presence in Syria, and this has been significantly reduced. But that does not mean either is gone for good. Russian diplomats retain a presence in Syria, Russia has controversially positioned itself as a "protector" of Syria's minorities and also has close economic ties to Syrian allies like Turkey and the UAE. As for Iran, its "influence in Syria is no longer contingent on the Assad regime's survival," Egyptian security analyst Mohamed ELDoh wrote for specialist US outlet, Global Security Review , this month. "It is embedded in paramilitary networks, ideological infrastructure and narco-trafficking cartels."
Asharq Al-Awsat
04-06-2025
- Business
- Asharq Al-Awsat
Türkiye to Press Allies for Access to EU Defense Funds
Türkiye will press European allies which plan to sharply ramp up their defense spending to ease restrictions that now require most of that money to be spent in the EU, Defense Minister Yasar Guler told Reuters on Wednesday ahead of a NATO meeting. In written answers to questions from Reuters, Guler also said Türkiye hopes a potential meeting between Donald Trump and Tayyip Erdogan will finally yield progress in lifting US sanctions that expelled Türkiye from the F-35 jet program. Guler said Türkiye , which has the second biggest army in NATO after the United States, has advanced capabilities in areas such as drones, which would be valuable to its allies as they plan major new spending on defense. "Allies need to spend not only more, but also smarter – and there is a need for more cooperation than ever before," Guler said when asked about Trump's call on the alliance to ramp up defense spending to target 5% of output. Many European nations have announced plans for major increases in defense spending. The EU itself, driven by fears of a Russian attack and doubts about US security commitments, has approved creating a 150 billion-euro ($170 billion) EU arms fund to boost the defense industry, labelled the SAFE scheme. But it mandates that 65% of projects are funded by firms in the bloc, the broader European Economic Area, or Ukraine. Guler said such restrictions would exclude non-EU countries like Türkiye from Europe's defense and security architecture, which he said was "an issue that cannot be discussed only within the EU". Türkiye wants to "build the security of the future together" with the EU, and would continue to work with "open-minded and visionary European allies within or outside SAFE," he said, specifically listing drones, air defenses, naval systems, armoured vehicles and land platforms, electronic warfare and radar systems, ammunition and rocket systems. Greece, Türkiye's longstanding adversary, has demanded Ankara lift a lift a 30-year old war threat over territorial waters to be permitted to access EU defense funds. Guler said such demands were a mistake, amounting to "involving multilateral platforms in bilateral disputes". Ankara's defense cooperation with its NATO allies has been hampered in recent years by US sanctions imposed over a Turkish decision to buy Russian S-400 air defense systems, which resulted in Türkiye's expulsion from the US-led F-35 program as both a buyer and manufacturer of the advanced jets. Erdogan has expressed confidence that Trump, with whom he has good personal ties, will find a solution that relieves Türkiye's defense industry of the sanctions. A potential meeting between Erdogan and Trump, and the close ties between them, can "breathe new life" into bilateral defense ties and help lift the sanctions, Guler said. Although Ankara would not give up the S-400s, lifting the sanctions would let it consider returning to the F-35 project, he said.
