Latest news with #Wen-TiSung
Time of India
11 hours ago
- Business
- Time of India
Israel hammers Iran: Trump mulls bunker busters-will Xi rescue Ayatollah?
AI image for representation only. As Israel rains missiles on Iranian military and nuclear targets and President Donald Trump weighs direct US intervention with bunker-busting bombs, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei finds himself increasingly isolated. But the one power many hoped - or feared - might come to Tehran's aid, China, has stayed conspicuously cautious. Not that China has totally abandoned Iran, it has drawn a red line: But only on paper. Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi called the Israeli strikes on Iran 'unacceptable.' President Xi Jinping issued a condemnation through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. China even offered rhetorical support for Iran's 'sovereignty and security.' But beyond the statements, one thing was conspicuously absent: Action. Chinese President Xi Jinping has condemned Israel's assault, emphasized dialogue, and backed Iran's sovereignty. Yet he has shown no signs of rushing to deliver weapons, military intelligence, or any other support that might change the battlefield calculus in Iran's favor. 'China may be offering economic relief and rhetorical support to Iran, but actual military intervention is not anywhere near the table yet,' Wen-Ti Sung, nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council's Global China Hub, told Bloomberg. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Free P2,000 GCash eGift UnionBank Credit Card Apply Now Undo Why it matters Iran is facing its most serious external threat since the 1979 revolution. Israel has killed over 600 Iranians, including top generals and nuclear scientists. Trump has demanded Iran's 'unconditional surrender' and is weighing military options. And yet, China - a supposed strategic partner - has stuck to statements and sidestepped commitments. The lack of meaningful action from Beijing signals two crucial realities: 1. China's support for Iran is driven more by economic self-interest and strategic restraint than ideological alignment. 2. Beijing's Middle East strategy is transactional and risk-averse, prioritizing energy security and economic ties over alliances. Between the lines: Rhetoric without risk Beijing's pattern is clear. As in Ukraine, it prefers moral positioning to material involvement. 'China may be offering economic relief and rhetorical support to Iran, but actual military intervention is not anywhere near the table yet,' Wen-Ti Sung, a nonresident fellow with the Atlantic Council's Global China Hub, told Bloomberg. The calculus is both ideological and pragmatic. Xi's doctrine of non-interference-rooted in Deng-era realism-has become a trademark of China's global posture. That principle allows Beijing to project neutrality in foreign conflicts, appeal to the Global South, and avoid the pitfalls of overextension that have ensnared the US for decades. In this case, the risks are exceptionally high. Iran is being directly targeted not just by Israel but potentially by an emboldened United States. President Donald Trump has floated the possibility of using 'bunker buster' bombs to strike Iran's deeply buried nuclear sites. Open conflict with a US-backed adversary in the Middle East is a trap China has no interest in walking into. 'China does not want to risk getting entrapped by Iran's war with an Israel that has the Trump administration behind it,' Sung explained. Zoom in Oil calculus: Over 90% of Iran's oil exports go to China, mostly via sanction-evading methods using yuan and shadow fleets. Yet Iran accounts for less than 1% of China's total trade. It's significant for Tehran, not Beijing. 'If Iranian oil disappears, China has other options,' noted Fitch Ratings. 'OPEC+ spare capacity could fill the gap.' Beijing's diversified energy strategy is designed precisely for this scenario-an unstable supplier becomes expendable. Energy risk: If the conflict disrupts the Strait of Hormuz, the fallout for China could be massive. Nearly half of its crude oil passes through the narrow waterway. Weapon supply: Iran needs advanced air defense and fighter jets to match Israel. But China has not signed a new arms deal with Iran since 2005. US sanctions have disincentivized such transactions. Public mood: Some Chinese nationalist voices want Beijing to back Iran militarily. But most state messaging focuses on stability, and social media commentary is mixed. 'If Islamic countries such as Pakistan intervene, it will indirectly drag China in, because the weapons they use are from China,' Pan Guang of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences told the South China Morning Post. The big picture China and Iran have deepened ties in recent years. Xi oversaw Iran's entry into BRICS and the SCO. They signed a 25-year strategic deal in 2021, reportedly worth $400 billion in investments. But implementation has been slow, and sanctions have chilled enthusiasm among Chinese firms. Iran is a 'strategic partner' for Beijing only insofar as it fits broader geopolitical aims - challenging US dominance, securing oil, and building influence. Iran is not central to China's Middle East blueprint. Meanwhile, China has kept relations warm with Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. When Beijing brokered a diplomatic thaw between Tehran and Riyadh in 2023, it celebrated the moment but quickly stepped back as new conflicts erupted. 'China's strategy in the Middle East is to stay on good terms with everyone to maximize its economic gains and geopolitical influence,' Neil Thomas of the Asia Society Policy Institute told the Bloomberg. And if conflict between the US and Iran escalates, Beijing may even benefit. Greater US involvement in the Middle East would 'distract Washington from strategic competition with China,' Bloomberg analysts noted. What they're saying 'Xi has expressed willingness to help. But what can he or China do?' asked Zhiqun Zhu, professor at Bucknell University. 'Mediating is a tall order that's hard to reach without cooperation of other key players, especially the United States.' 'Further escalation of tensions in the Middle East is not in the interests of any party,' said China's foreign ministry, urging countries with 'special influence on Israel' - a nod to the US - to play a constructive role. 'If Trump takes some action on the Israel-Iran issue, he can divert attention from other troublesome issues,' said Pan Guang, implying that China sees US threats as partly political theater. What's next If the conflict deepens and Trump orders US strikes, China will likely double down on diplomacy, perhaps via the UN Security Council, where it can flex soft power without real costs. But don't expect Beijing to: Deploy military assets Sell weapons to Tehran Mediate alone between Israel and Iran That's not how Xi operates. China has neither the appetite nor the leverage to act as a wartime ally. And with global oil prices, Chinese economic recovery, and domestic woes in play - including youth unemployment and a real estate slump - the risks of deeper entanglement far outweigh the potential gains. The bottom line Xi Jinping is not coming to the Ayatollah's rescue. China may speak out against Israeli strikes and back Iran in the abstract. But when it comes to real power - arms, troops, strategic shielding - Tehran is on its own. Xi's priority remains crystal clear: avoid chaos, avoid sanctions, and avoid war.
Yahoo
06-04-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
China floats battle barges in Taiwan invasion plans
Vast new Chinese barges spotted off the country's south coast could be used to land heavy equipment and thousands of personnel in a possible invasion of Taiwan, defence experts say. Beijing this week launched what it called "punishing" drills around Taiwan, sending jets and warships in a rehearsal for a blockade and assault on the self-ruled island. And a memo from US Naval War College has revealed another potential weapon in Beijing's arsenal -- barges that can connect via extendable ramps to form an 820-metre-long (half-mile-long) pier from deep waters to land. With retractable legs that can push into the sea floor, the Naval War College said they could create a platform for personnel and "hundreds of vehicles" an hour to land on Taiwan, which China claims as its own territory. "These barges are clearly meant to facilitate amphibious invasion against Taiwan," Wen-Ti Sung, a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council's Global China Hub, told AFP. Wargaming of a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan long assumed that Beijing's People's Liberation Army (PLA) would have been forced to rely on small amphibious landing vessels to get ashore. Only a handful of Taiwan's beaches are suitable for large-scale amphibious landings -- giving Taipei a critical edge in the defence of the island. "These barges may enable Chinese forces to make landings even on the more challenging terrains of the Taiwanese coastline," Sung said. This, he added, "gives the Chinese military a greater selection of potential landing spots, and spreads Taiwanese defences thin". Satellite images from Planet Labs PBC obtained by AFP show the system deployed in the waters off Zhanjiang city of Guangdong, southern China, at the end of March. In a programme on state TV last month discussing the barges, military commentator Wei Dongxu touted their ability to transport large numbers of heavy equipment onto an island "while keeping their feet dry". "Once the naval and air forces effectively control the air and sea, then this... barge will appear," he said. "It can be said that it is a sign of victory." And another three barges, dubbed Shuiqiao ("water bridge" in Chinese) by analysts, are under construction in southern China, the US Naval War College said. - 'Any means possible' - "They embody the seriousness with which China under President Xi Jinping is pursuing absorption of Taiwan by any means possible," Andrew Erickson, professor at the US Naval War College's China Maritime Studies Institute, told AFP. "China... would not waste resources on such a specialized, dedicated system if it were not bore-sighted on taking Taiwan by threat, or use, of force." China could harness its world-leading shipbuilding industry to rapidly build many more barges at affordable cost, Erickson said. Beijing has ramped up military pressure on Taiwan in recent years and held multiple large-scale exercises around the island that are often described as rehearsals for a blockade and seizure of the territory. US officials say President Xi has ordered his military to be ready for an invasion of Taiwan by 2027. And during this week's drills, Taiwan's defence ministry said it had detected 21 warships, 71 aircraft and four coast guard vessels around the island on Tuesday. China's Shandong aircraft carrier also took part. The drills, held less than a month after Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te called China a "foreign hostile force", saw Beijing practice striking "key energy sites" and ports, Beijing's military said. - 'Hard to hide, hard to defend'- But despite the bravado from Beijing, defeating well-prepared Taiwanese defenders and performing a successful invasion of the island still poses major challenges to China's modernising military. And the barges are still no panacea for the logistical woes that will plague any future invasion. The barges "appear vulnerable to attacks from land, air, and sea", the US Naval War College said. "There are reasons why these capabilities aren't commonly touted as particularly viable," said Rorry Daniels, managing director of the Asia Society Policy Institute. "They're... hard to hide, hard to defend, slow to move." "You need air superiority for them to work and it's not clear to me that Beijing could establish air superiority over Taiwan." US Naval War College's Erickson said they "cannot hope to survive in isolation". Though still appearing to be in a trial phase of their deployment, the barges could be aimed at sending a message to Taiwan's leaders. Beijing is saying "'We are actively problem-solving the issues that we see with a full-scale invasion of Taiwan,'" said Daniels. "'And you should be worried about that.'" sam/oho/je/sco
Al Arabiya
04-04-2025
- Politics
- Al Arabiya
China floats battle barges that could be used in possible invasion of Taiwan
Vast new Chinese barges spotted off the country's south coast could be used to land heavy equipment and thousands of personnel in a possible invasion of Taiwan, defense experts say. Beijing this week launched what it called 'punishing' drills around Taiwan, sending jets and warships in a rehearsal for a blockade and assault on the self-ruled island. And a memo from US Naval War College has revealed another potential weapon in Beijing's arsenal -- barges that can connect via extendable ramps to form an 820-metre-long (half-mile-long) pier from deep waters to land. With retractable legs that can push into the sea floor, the Naval War College said they could create a platform for personnel and 'hundreds of vehicles' an hour to land on Taiwan, which China claims as its own territory. 'These barges are clearly meant to facilitate amphibious invasion against Taiwan,' Wen-Ti Sung, a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council's Global China Hub, told AFP. Wargaming of a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan long assumed that Beijing's People's Liberation Army (PLA) would have been forced to rely on small amphibious landing vessels to get ashore. Only a handful of Taiwan's beaches are suitable for large-scale amphibious landings -- giving Taipei a critical edge in the defense of the island. 'These barges may enable Chinese forces to make landings even on the more challenging terrains of the Taiwanese coastline,' Sung said. This, he added, 'gives the Chinese military a greater selection of potential landing spots, and spreads Taiwanese defenses thin.' Satellite images from Planet Labs PBC obtained by AFP show the system deployed in the waters off Zhanjiang city of Guangdong, southern China, at the end of March. In a program on state TV last month discussing the barges, military commentator Wei Dongxu touted their ability to transport large numbers of heavy equipment onto an island 'while keeping their feet dry.' 'Once the naval and air forces effectively control the air and sea, then this... barge will appear,' he said. 'It can be said that it is a sign of victory.' And another three barges, dubbed Shuiqiao ('water bridge' in Chinese) by analysts, are under construction in southern China, the US Naval War College said. 'Any means possible' 'They embody the seriousness with which China under President Xi Jinping is pursuing absorption of Taiwan by any means possible,' Andrew Erickson, professor at the US Naval War College's China Maritime Studies Institute, told AFP. 'China... would not waste resources on such a specialized, dedicated system if it were not bore-sighted on taking Taiwan by threat, or use, of force.' China could harness its world-leading shipbuilding industry to rapidly build many more barges at affordable cost, Erickson said. Beijing has ramped up military pressure on Taiwan in recent years and held multiple large-scale exercises around the island that are often described as rehearsals for a blockade and seizure of the territory. US officials say President Xi has ordered his military to be ready for an invasion of Taiwan by 2027. And during this week's drills, Taiwan's defense ministry said it had detected 21 warships, 71 aircraft and four coast guard vessels around the island on Tuesday. China's Shandong aircraft carrier also took part. The drills, held less than a month after Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te called China a 'foreign hostile force', saw Beijing practice striking 'key energy sites' and ports, Beijing's military said. 'Hard to hide, hard to defend' But despite the bravado from Beijing, defeating well-prepared Taiwanese defenders and performing a successful invasion of the island still poses major challenges to China's modernizing military. And the barges are still no panacea for the logistical woes that will plague any future invasion. The barges 'appear vulnerable to attacks from land, air, and sea,' the US Naval War College said. 'There are reasons why these capabilities aren't commonly touted as particularly viable,' said Rorry Daniels, managing director of the Asia Society Policy Institute. 'They're... hard to hide, hard to defend, slow to move.' 'You need air superiority for them to work and it's not clear to me that Beijing could establish air superiority over Taiwan.' US Naval War College's Erickson said they 'cannot hope to survive in isolation.' Though still appearing to be in a trial phase of their deployment, the barges could be aimed at sending a message to Taiwan's leaders. Beijing is saying 'We are actively problem-solving the issues that we see with a full-scale invasion of Taiwan,' said Daniels. 'And you should be worried about that.'
Yahoo
04-04-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
China floats battle barges in Taiwan invasion plans
Vast new Chinese barges spotted off the country's south coast could be used to land heavy equipment and thousands of personnel in a possible invasion of Taiwan, defence experts say. Beijing this week launched what it called "punishing" drills around Taiwan, sending jets and warships in a rehearsal for a blockade and assault on the self-ruled island. And a memo from US Naval War College has revealed another potential weapon in Beijing's arsenal -- barges that can connect via extendable ramps to form an 820-metre-long (half-mile-long) pier from deep waters to land. With retractable legs that can push into the sea floor, the Naval War College said they could create a platform for personnel and "hundreds of vehicles" an hour to land on Taiwan, which China claims as its own territory. "These barges are clearly meant to facilitate amphibious invasion against Taiwan," Wen-Ti Sung, a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council's Global China Hub, told AFP. Wargaming of a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan long assumed that Beijing's People's Liberation Army (PLA) would have been forced to rely on small amphibious landing vessels to get ashore. Only a handful of Taiwan's beaches are suitable for large-scale amphibious landings -- giving Taipei a critical edge in the defence of the island. "These barges may enable Chinese forces to make landings even on the more challenging terrains of the Taiwanese coastline," Sung said. This, he added, "gives the Chinese military a greater selection of potential landing spots, and spreads Taiwanese defences thin". Satellite images from Planet Labs PBC obtained by AFP show the system deployed in the waters off Zhanjiang city of Guangdong, southern China, at the end of March. In a programme on state TV last month discussing the barges, military commentator Wei Dongxu touted their ability to transport large numbers of heavy equipment onto an island "while keeping their feet dry". "Once the naval and air forces effectively control the air and sea, then this... barge will appear," he said. "It can be said that it is a sign of victory." And another three barges, dubbed Shuiqiao ("water bridge" in Chinese) by analysts, are under construction in southern China, the US Naval War College said. - 'Any means possible' - "They embody the seriousness with which China under President Xi Jinping is pursuing absorption of Taiwan by any means possible," Andrew Erickson, professor at the US Naval War College's China Maritime Studies Institute, told AFP. "China... would not waste resources on such a specialized, dedicated system if it were not bore-sighted on taking Taiwan by threat, or use, of force." China could harness its world-leading shipbuilding industry to rapidly build many more barges at affordable cost, Erickson said. Beijing has ramped up military pressure on Taiwan in recent years and held multiple large-scale exercises around the island that are often described as rehearsals for a blockade and seizure of the territory. US officials say President Xi has ordered his military to be ready for an invasion of Taiwan by 2027. And during this week's drills, Taiwan's defence ministry said it had detected 21 warships, 71 aircraft and four coast guard vessels around the island on Tuesday. China's Shandong aircraft carrier also took part. The drills, held less than a month after Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te called China a "foreign hostile force", saw Beijing practice striking "key energy sites" and ports, Beijing's military said. - 'Hard to hide, hard to defend'- But despite the bravado from Beijing, defeating well-prepared Taiwanese defenders and performing a successful invasion of the island still poses major challenges to China's modernising military. And the barges are still no panacea for the logistical woes that will plague any future invasion. The barges "appear vulnerable to attacks from land, air, and sea", the US Naval War College said. "There are reasons why these capabilities aren't commonly touted as particularly viable," said Rorry Daniels, managing director of the Asia Society Policy Institute. "They're... hard to hide, hard to defend, slow to move." "You need air superiority for them to work and it's not clear to me that Beijing could establish air superiority over Taiwan." US Naval War College's Erickson said they "cannot hope to survive in isolation". Though still appearing to be in a trial phase of their deployment, the barges could be aimed at sending a message to Taiwan's leaders. Beijing is saying "'We are actively problem-solving the issues that we see with a full-scale invasion of Taiwan,'" said Daniels. "'And you should be worried about that.'" sam/oho/je/sco
Japan Times
02-04-2025
- Politics
- Japan Times
Chinese military practices striking key Taiwan ports and energy facilities
China's military carried out "long-range live-fire drills" in the East China Sea on Wednesday as it held a second consecutive day of exercises around Taiwan that saw it practice simulated strikes on key ports and energy facilities on the island. The large-scale military exercises, which Beijing said were also taking place in the middle and southern areas of the Taiwan Strait, prompted scathing criticism from the U.S. that China was fueling tensions in the region. The Chinese military said that its ground forces had conducted long-range live-fire drills into the waters of the East China Sea as part of its Strait Thunder-2025A exercises, though it did not give an exact location for them. Those drills involved "precision strikes on simulated targets of key ports and energy facilities, and have achieved desired effects," Senior Col. Shi Yi, spokesperson of the military's Eastern Theater Command, said in a statement. An earlier statement said the drills were intended to "test the troops' capabilities" in areas such as "blockade and control, and precision strikes on key targets.' A video released by the Chinese military showed scores of troops rushing out of a barracks to waiting vehicles and firing off a barrage of rockets before displaying an animated image of fires erupting across Taiwan, including in the cities of Tainan, Hualien and Taichung, all home to key military bases and ports. At the end of the video, the words "control energy corridors, disrupt supply routes, block secret routes to docks" appear over the image of a burning Taiwan. The Shandong aircraft carrier group also took part in the exercises to the east of Taiwan, conducting integrated naval and air operations and "multi-dimensional blockade and control" drills. The general locations of Wednesday's drills appeared aimed at practicing cutting off shipping lanes that are crucial to the island and the global economy, experts said. "This round of military drills' objectives are to seal off key passageways and establish comprehensive control over Taiwan's infrastructure," said Wen-Ti Sung, a nonresident fellow with the Atlantic Council's Global China Hub. "It's Chinese military practicing disrupting international resupplying missions for Taiwan during wartime, and thereby starving Taiwan into submission." Meng Xiangqing, a Chinese military scholar at the PLA National Defense University, also said in a video posted to China's state-run CCTV that the exercises were intended to warn Taiwan, which is vulnerable to energy supply disruptions due to its reliance on imports. The second day of exercises came after the Chinese military on Tuesday practiced assault "joint blockade and control" in waters to the north, south and east of Taiwan, as Beijing criticized Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te as a "parasite" undermining Taiwan with a push toward independence. In Washington, the State Department lambasted the exercises and reiterated support for Taiwan, which it called a partner. 'Once again, China's aggressive military activities and rhetoric toward Taiwan only serve to exacerbate tensions and put the region's security and the world's prosperity at risk,' State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce said in a statement Tuesday. 'In the face of China's intimidation tactics and destabilizing behavior, the United States' enduring commitment to our allies and partners, including Taiwan, continues,' Bruce added. Earlier Tuesday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said that U.S. President Donald Trump is 'encouraging the peaceful resolution of these cross-strait issues." The exercises followed U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's remarks in Tokyo on Sunday that Washington 'is committed to sustaining robust, ready and credible deterrence in the Indo-Pacific, including across the Taiwan Strait.' A TV screen broadcasts news about Chinese military drills around Taiwan, at a shopping mall in Beijing on Tuesday. | AFP-JIJI Taiwan's Defense Ministry said that the exercises have highlighted that China is 'openly challenging the international order and undermining regional stability,' adding that Beijing had become the world's 'biggest trouble-maker.' Beijing conducted similar large-scale military drills under the code-name 'Joint Sword' last May and October, and China's state-run Global Times newspaper said Wednesday that the latest exercises highlighted that the country's People's Liberation Army (PLA) was normalizing its operations in the Taiwan Strait. "From honing combat readiness and familiarizing troops with battlefield conditions to enhancing joint operational capabilities and testing weaponry, every PLA exercise serves to build strength and ensure that no battle is fought unprepared," the paper said in editorial. "Behind this 'normalization' is an increasingly sophisticated PLA operational toolbox for operations in the Taiwan Straits, with more diverse and flexible tactics." China views self-ruled Taiwan as its 'core of core issues' and regards the island as a renegade province that must be unified with the mainland, by force if necessary. Beijing regularly sends military aircraft and warships near and around the island and has conducted a number of large-scale exercises. Beijing has blamed Lai, who it views as a 'separatist,' for prompting it to conduct the military exercises. "Lai is hijacking all residents of Taiwan onto the 'Taiwan independence' bandwagon, pushing the island step by step toward a perilous situation, and becoming an unabashed troublemaker, danger creator, and war instigator," the Global Times said in its editorial. The Taiwanese leader has stoked Beijing's anger by taking a harder line on China than his predecessor, Tsai Ing-wen. This has included his labeling of China last month as a "foreign hostile force" and unveiling a raft of measures to combat espionage and infiltration by Beijing. The latest exercises also appear to be a test for Trump's Indo-Pacific policy as Washington looks to focus on reining in China's regional ambitions. Taiwan featured heavily during Hegseth's visit to the region, a trip that included stops in the Philippines and Japan. Washington views the two allies as crucial to countering Beijing's growing military assertiveness, and the defense secretary announced a number of new measures intended to help confront China during his trip. Trump, however, declined to comment in late February when asked whether it was the policy of his administration to prevent China from using force to take control of Taiwan. The United States switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979, but has maintained unofficial relations with Taiwan and is bound by law to supply the island with weapons to help it defend itself. But in contrast to Trump's public pronouncements, a secret Pentagon memo signed by Hegseth, and reviewed by The Washington Post, reportedly says that the U.S. is reorienting its military strategy to focus primarily on deterring a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Experts say the latest Chinese exercises are intended to gauge just how far Washington will go. "China is trying to test the strength of U.S. support for Taiwan," the Atlantic Council's Sung said. "Beijing intends to generate a potential crisis situation to test whether the Trump administration will follow through or not," he said. Ian Chong, a professor at the National University of Singapore and expert on Chinese security issues, said Beijing could be using the exercises near Taiwan "to see if it can establish a new fait accompli while the U.S. is distracted." "Beijing will probably be waiting to see if Washington backs up its language with actions," he said. "Otherwise they may believe that the Trump administration is just bluffing."
