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U.S. strike on Iran now seen as 62% likely
U.S. strike on Iran now seen as 62% likely

Yahoo

time10 hours ago

  • Business
  • Yahoo

U.S. strike on Iran now seen as 62% likely

U.S. strike on Iran now seen as 62% likely originally appeared on TheStreet. With missiles flying between Israel and Iran, markets crashing, and everyone refreshing X every 10 seconds, Polymarket, a crypto prediction platform, might be one of the only places offering some clarity. One of the most-watched markets on Polymarket right now is centered on a sobering question: Will the US launch military action against Iran before June 30, 2025? With tensions soaring in the Middle East, this market has attracted over $6 million in trading volume, making it one of the largest geopolitical prediction markets of the year. Polymarket, which launched in 2020, didn't rise overnight. Its traction skyrocketed in the past year, especially around major political events. In 2024 alone, users wagered over $8 billion on predictions related to elections. As of now, the odds are sitting around 62% for "Yes", indicating traders increasingly believe that U.S. intervention is imminent. According to Polymarket's official rules, the market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed US military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory, or against any Iranian embassies or consulates — between March 31 and June 30, 2025. This must be officially acknowledged by the U.S. government or widely confirmed through credible reporting. Examples include airstrikes, naval actions, or any form of kinetic military engagement. Cyberattacks, economic sanctions, or covert diplomacy won't count. If a qualifying military strike is confirmed before June 30, the market will resolve early, locking in profits for 'Yes' holders and losses for 'No' holders. Missiles are flying, cities are on edge, and the world is holding its breath. Over the past few days, Israel and Iran have been locked in a dangerous tit-for-tat that's escalated fast. It began with Israel launching a pre-emptive airstrike on Iran. In response, Iran vowed the 'largest and most intense missile attack in history' on Israeli soil. Since then, Iran has launched multiple volleys of missiles targeting central and northern Israel, while Israeli air defenses and drones have intercepted several of them. Tel Aviv, Haifa, and even areas near the Natanz nuclear site in Iran have sounded air raid sirens as explosions rocked the region. As tensions spiral, Trump, who left the G7 summit early, is back in Washington, issuing ominous warnings. On Truth Social, he told residents of Tehran to evacuate the city immediately. The New York Times reported that he's considering using the U.S.'s most powerful 'bunker buster' bomb to target Iran's Fordo nuclear facility. Markets are already feeling the heat. Oil prices have spiked, Bitcoin dipped sharply, and investors are rattled. U.S. strike on Iran now seen as 62% likely first appeared on TheStreet on Jun 17, 2025 This story was originally reported by TheStreet on Jun 17, 2025, where it first appeared.

Fixed Income Activity Drives Northern Trust's Outsourced Trading Business Growth
Fixed Income Activity Drives Northern Trust's Outsourced Trading Business Growth

Yahoo

time27-05-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Fixed Income Activity Drives Northern Trust's Outsourced Trading Business Growth

CHICAGO, May 27, 2025--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Northern Trust (Nasdaq: NTRS) announced today that its Integrated Trading Solutions (ITS) outsourced trading business has continued to experience strong growth, with its client base increasing by nearly 17% from year-end 2023 to the end of the first quarter, 2025. The growth has been driven by an increase in demand for fixed income outsourced trading as well as asset managers looking to reduce costs in a challenging market environment. ITS has observed impressive growth in fixed income trading from a multitude of different client profiles – ranging from traditional asset managers to hedge funds, public and corporate treasurers, and other asset owners. ITS fixed income trading volume quadrupled in the last three years in the U.S. while doubling in EMEA as clients looked to add exposure across investment grade and high yield credit, U.S. Treasuries, developed rates and emerging market debt, municipals, money markets, asset-backed and securitized products. ITS provides a global outsourced trading solution that covers multiple asset classes and offers 24/6 market coverage in more than 80 markets. Through ITS, Northern Trust's clients can access a large global network of more than 450 brokers, including global firms and local specialists in equities, fixed income, and derivatives. Amy Thorne, Head of Integrated Trading Solutions, EMEA, said: "As one of the first custodians to offer outsourced trading capabilities, we're gratified to see the growing demand for our Integrated Trading Solutions. As we continue to expand, we're committed to delivering tailored outsourced trading experiences that meet our clients' needs." Stephanie Farrell, Head of Integrated Trading Solutions, Americas, said: "Our ITS offering continues to build upon Northern Trust's foundation of strength and stability, and clients value the combination of consultative service and global capabilities we offer. As a pioneer in outsourced trading, we continue to be a leader in this industry, delivering solutions that help our clients succeed." Rob Arnott, Head of Brokerage, Asia Pacific, said: "Our growth in the APAC region and expansion into fixed income trading allows Northern Trust to better serve our clients with advanced trading technology, regional expertise, and experienced traders. Our solutions-oriented approach helps our clients navigate trading complexities more effectively." Northern Trust's outsourced trading capability combines worldwide agency-only trading expertise in equities, fixed income and exchange traded derivatives across global markets, coverage from multiple trading locations, access to high-quality liquidity and a fully integrated middle and back-office service. ITS helps asset owners and asset managers to meaningfully lower costs, reduce risk, manage regulatory compliance and enhance transparency and operational efficiency. ITS is offered through Institutional Brokerage, a part of Northern Trust Banking & Markets, which also provides foreign exchange, securities lending and transition management services. About Northern Trust Banking & Markets Northern Trust Banking & Markets is comprised of a number of Northern Trust entities that provide trading and execution services on behalf of institutional clients, including foreign exchange, institutional brokerage, securities finance and transition management services. Foreign exchange, securities finance and transition management services are provided by The Northern Trust Company (TNTC) globally, and Northern Trust Global Services SE (NTGS SE) in the European Economic Area (EEA). Institutional Brokerage services including ITS are provided by NTGS SE in the EEA, Northern Trust Securities LLP (NTS LLP) in the rest of EMEA, Northern Trust Securities Australia Pty Ltd (NTSA) in APAC and Northern Trust Securities, Inc. (NTSI) in the United States, member FINRA, SIPC and a subsidiary of Northern Trust Corporation. About Northern Trust Northern Trust Corporation (Nasdaq: NTRS) is a leading provider of wealth management, asset servicing, asset management and banking to corporations, institutions, affluent families and individuals. Founded in Chicago in 1889, Northern Trust has a global presence with offices in 24 U.S. states and Washington, D.C., and across 22 locations in Canada, Europe, the Middle East and the Asia-Pacific region. As of March 31, 2025, Northern Trust had assets under custody/administration of US$16.9 trillion, and assets under management of US$1.6 trillion. For more than 135 years, Northern Trust has earned distinction as an industry leader for exceptional service, financial expertise, integrity and innovation. Visit us on Follow us on Instagram @northerntrustcompany or Northern Trust on LinkedIn. Northern Trust Corporation, Head Office: 50 South La Salle Street, Chicago, Illinois 60603 U.S.A., incorporated with limited liability in the U.S. Global legal and regulatory information can be found at View source version on Contacts Media Contacts Europe, Middle East, Africa & Asia-Pacific: Camilla Greene+44 (0) 20 7982 2176Camilla_Greene@ Simon Ansell+ 44 (0) 20 7982 1016sa777@ US & Canada: John O'Connell+1 312 444 2388John_O'Connell@

Gold Analysis & Targets 5/25/25
Gold Analysis & Targets 5/25/25

Globe and Mail

time25-05-2025

  • Business
  • Globe and Mail

Gold Analysis & Targets 5/25/25

Gold Futures Analysis The chart is key to this update. (GCM25) From last week, The failure to make a new high in the area of a 78.6% retracement (also a major Gann square) hit the first target of 78.6% the other way at 3268.00 per the ONE44 78.6% rule and we will now see if it is also the end of the Bull run for now. It traded below the short term target of 3164.40, but never closed below it, this was 38.2% back to the 11/14/24 low and a major Gann square. This will be the key level for next week. Use 3164.40 as the swing point for the week. Above it, being a 38.2% retracement, holding it can send this market to a new high per the ONE44 38.2% rule. The longer term target is 78.6% back to the 4/22/25 high at 3430.00. The short term target area is the 3356.70 major Gann square and 61.8% back to the same high at 3366.00. Any rally that can't get above 38.2% of the same move at 3273.00 is very negative and a new low can quickly follow. 5/25/25 After spiking below 38.2% at 3164.00 (also a major Gann square), but never closing below it, it has rallied $200 and now hit the short term target area of the 3356.70 major Gann square and 61.8% back to the 4/22/25 high at 3366.00, this will be the key level for next week. We will use the ONE44 61.8% rule to get the short term downside target. Use 3366.00 as the swing point for the week. Above it, The low on 5/15/25 held 38.2% at 3164.40 and following the ONE44 38.2% rule we are still looking for a new ATH from it for the long term target. The short term target area is 78.6% of the same move at 3430.00 and the 3446.00 major Gann square. Below it, a setback from a 61.8% retracement can send it 61.8% the other way at 3220.00 per the ONE44 61.8% rule, this is the short term target. The long term target area is 78.6% of the same move at 3178.00 and the 3164.40 major Gann square. Any setback that holds 38.2% at 3276.00 keeps the short term trend extremely positive and a new high can quickly follow. We have done 47 videos on how to use the Fibonacci retracements with the ONE44 rules and guidelines. These Videos are worth watching even if it is not in the market you are trading, as the ONE44 rules and guidelines are the same for every market. You will also see why we believe the Fibonacci retracements are the underlying structure of ALL markets. Here is the latest. Sign up for free updates for Gold, Crude Oil, SP 500 and Bitcoin here. ONE44 Analytics where the analysis is concise and to the point Our goal is to not only give you actionable information, but to help you understand why we think this is happening based on pure price analysis with Fibonacci retracements, that we believe are the underlying structure of all markets and Gann squares. If you like this type of analysis and trade the Grain/Livestock futures you can become a Premium Member. You can also follow us on YouTube for more examples of how to use the Fibonacci retracements with the ONE44 rules and guidelines. FULL RISK DISCLOSURE: Futures trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Commission Rule 4.41(b)(1)(I) hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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