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The South African
2 days ago
- Business
- The South African
Warren Hammond's Personal View: Geopolitical risk surges as April and June warnings unfold
Acts of Violence – The World Is on Edge This Summer. Image: LinkedIn/warren-hammond Home » Warren Hammond's Personal View: Geopolitical risk surges as April and June warnings unfold Acts of Violence – The World Is on Edge This Summer. Image: LinkedIn/warren-hammond On 2nd June, I published a note entitled 'The Personal View: Acts of Violence – The World Is On Edge This Summer.' In it, I warned: 'June and July 2025 will shape up to be two of the most geopolitically intense, heated, combustible months in recent memory… not defined by a single headline, but by a drumbeat of destabilising, violent, and politically consequential events.' This warning is reiterated. All June and all July will see persistent and intense acts of violence, terror, war, and conflict. Since the warning was issued on 2nd June, we've witnessed: – Israeli airstrikes on Iran's Natanz nuclear site– Iranian missile retaliation centred on Tel Aviv, Haifa, and Jerusalem– Waves of rocket fire in Gaza and southern Lebanon– A mass shooting in Graz, Austria– Riots in Ballymena, Northern Ireland– India–India-Pakistan tensions reignited with border clashes and terror threats– A firebomb attack in Colorado– Casualties in Kherson, Ukraine, from Russian drone strikes– Rising tensions on the Kyrgyz–Tajik border – The UN confirming 118+ attacks on schools, hospitals, and civilian infrastructure globally Back in mid-April, I published 'The Personal View: The Thucydides Trap, War Cometh.' I stated: 'A rising tide of systemic confrontation is unfolding… This is the Thucydidean Trap, when a rising power threatens an established one, and miscalculation often leads to escalation.' In both notes, I flagged the geopolitical risk escalation and identified the market implications: – Exposure to energy security risk and oil-sensitive names – Tactical positioning away from travel, tourism, shipping, and logistics These weren't just warnings. They were calls to act. Markets are still mispricing the persistent asymmetric volatility ahead. Entering March 2025, my note, 'The Personal View: How to Position Your Portfolio for the Market Turmoil Ahead (2025–2028),' explicitly forecasted a wave of market volatility tied to tariff wars, leadership failure, military escalation, oil shocks, and cyber threats, including the unfolding Iran conflict. This was not a reaction; it was anticipation. The note forecast persistent, structural volatility through 2028. This same framework guided my early February 2020 short call ahead of the COVID crash, and my April 6, 2020, pivot to go long the S&P 500 with a multi-year target of $8,500, a call made amid panic, volatility, and disbelief. The fuse has been lit. June and July 2025 will continue to see the world on fire.. Share your thoughts in the comments below. How are you preparing for this volatile period? Let us know by leaving a comment below, or send a WhatsApp to 060 011 021 1 Subscribe to The South African website's newsletters and follow us on WhatsApp, Facebook, X and Bluesky for the latest news.
The South African
05-06-2025
- Business
- The South African
Warren Hammond's Personal View: A violent summer - The World on edge
Acts of Violence – The World Is on Edge This Summer. Image: LinkedIn/warren-hammond Home » Warren Hammond's Personal View: A violent summer – The World on edge Acts of Violence – The World Is on Edge This Summer. Image: LinkedIn/warren-hammond June and July 2025 will shape up to be two of the most geopolitically intense, heated, and combustible months in recent geopolitical memory, with acts of terror and war escalating. From Washington to Warsaw, Gaza to Islamabad, Khartoum to Kyiv, the geopolitical temperature is rising. Tensions are no longer simmering. They're flashing. The last time I viewed the world in this way was 4th February 2020, whereby I prepared (on the short side) for a seismic geopolitical event to disrupt markets, at which point I communicated a selective short basket of airline, shipping, logistics, cruise line, hotel, and theme park-oriented stocks. This short basket was held until 6th April 2020, at which time, turning bullish, it was covered, and I built a net long in the S&P500, placing a 5+ year target of 8,500 on the index, a call rooted in structurally bullish high conviction during extreme volatility. At the time, all was communicated via The Personal View. Over the past decade, The Personal View has predicted major inflexion points in global stability, including: – The storming of Capitol Hill on 6 January 2021 – The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 Both events were forecast in magnitude and timing. The signals were there. They are here again. What's unfolding now is a sharp escalation in the risk of terrorism, military confrontation, sabotage, and politically driven violence. This is not a call on a single event, but a recognition of a rising tide of instability spanning regions. Hotspots to watch: – Ukraine & Eastern Europe: Russian aggression continues; NATO mobilisation intensifies.– Middle East: Iran-Israel tension, asymmetric threats, and proxy volatility.– India & Pakistan: Fragile calm masking deep structural risk.– Sudan, Congo, Ethiopia, Myanmar: Fragile states with regional contagion potential. – Western cities: Heightened alert around lone-wolf and coordinated attacks. This is not about fear. It's about foresight. The Netherlands is hosting a critical NATO summit amid this intensification. The symbolism is clear: the West is no longer reacting, it is preparing. Alliances are being tested. Defence strategies are shifting. And yet, global markets remain largely focused on rate cuts and inflation, underpricing the true driver of risk this summer: global instability. This may not be a season defined by a single headline. It may be defined by a drumbeat of escalating events, destabilising, violent, and politically consequential. For investors, executives, and policymakers: Now is the time to recalibrate portfolios, assumptions, and geopolitical expectations. June and July 2025 are a season of aggression. The world is on edge. And in a moment like this, ignoring the tension is the most dangerous strategy of all. What are your thoughts on the unfolding geopolitical risks? We invite you to share your perspectives, analysis, or questions in the comments below. Let us know by leaving a comment below, or send a WhatsApp to 060 011 021 1 Subscribe to The South African website's newsletters and follow us on WhatsApp, Facebook, X and Bluesky for the latest news.
The South African
30-05-2025
- Business
- The South African
Warren Hammond's Personal View: EUR/USD at 1.50 – The Price of Reckoning
In March 2016, The Personal View, released 'The USA – The Next 18 Years', and I warned of an anticipated period of deep structural transformation in the foundational architecture of American finance. My decade-long 2016 forecast continues to gather relevance: 'For far too long the USA, and others, have been locked into a pattern and habit of high-flying, risky investment and consumption, the very source of the 2008 meltdown…the USA has not dealt with its obsession with debt and risky investment…Ultimately, over 18 years, the results are very positive as structural reform is implemented.' We now approach a scenario where EUR/USD at 1.50 is inevitable, as the consequence of sustained U.S. fiscal excess, speculative momentum, and monetary distortion. It's about a reassessment of the value and credibility of the U.S. dollar itself. And yes, there is a volatile, disorderly glide path to 1.50. It doesn't happen in the afternoon. See The Personal View: 'Positioning for the Market Turmoil Ahead (2025–2028)'. This forecast is part of a broader theme: the idea that when debt-driven consumption and high-risk investment are treated as the nectar of the gods, the price is losing one's head before reform arrives. As the Panic of 1907, led to the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913, today's challenges are forcing the system toward structural overhaul. Yes, the U.S. issues debt in its currency, and it can print to meet obligations. However, this monetary flexibility comes at a cost. The real price emerges through dollar devaluation, inflationary pressure, and the erosion of monetary credibility. We are witnessing a fiery, necessary transformation, a phase where the financial status quo is washed away, creating space for reassessment, recalibration, and redefinition of the institutions at the core of the U.S. system. The Federal Reserve, designed for a different era, increasingly outmoded, faces a world it wasn't built to manage. Its role and structure are being reformed in time. The pillars of U.S. post-war dominance, cheap capital, endless leverage, and default intervention, are being sanctioned by investors. In 2016, The Personal View warned: that indulgence in debt-driven speculation and consumption cannot persist without profound consequences. In 2025, this reform is no longer merely my forecast. It's underway. The U.S. financial landscape is being deeply overhauled. What emerges will reshape domestic markets, global capital, reserve structures, and strategic influence. See The Personal View 'Megatrends & The Future of Capital'. This isn't another cycle. It's the dawn of a new financial epoch. What's your take on the dollar's future and the road to EUR/USD 1.50? Join the conversation below. Let us know by leaving a comment below, or send a WhatsApp to 060 011 021 1 Subscribe to The South African website's newsletters and follow us on WhatsApp, Facebook, X and Bluesky for the latest news.
