Warren Hammond's Personal View: A violent summer - The World on edge

Acts of Violence – The World Is on Edge This Summer. Image: LinkedIn/warren-hammond
Home » Warren Hammond's Personal View: A violent summer – The World on edge
Acts of Violence – The World Is on Edge This Summer. Image: LinkedIn/warren-hammond
June and July 2025 will shape up to be two of the most geopolitically intense, heated, and combustible months in recent geopolitical memory, with acts of terror and war escalating.
From Washington to Warsaw, Gaza to Islamabad, Khartoum to Kyiv, the geopolitical temperature is rising. Tensions are no longer simmering. They're flashing.
The last time I viewed the world in this way was 4th February 2020, whereby I prepared (on the short side) for a seismic geopolitical event to disrupt markets, at which point I communicated a selective short basket of airline, shipping, logistics, cruise line, hotel, and theme park-oriented stocks. This short basket was held until 6th April 2020, at which time, turning bullish, it was covered, and I built a net long in the S&P500, placing a 5+ year target of 8,500 on the index, a call rooted in structurally bullish high conviction during extreme volatility. At the time, all was communicated via The Personal View.
Over the past decade, The Personal View has predicted major inflexion points in global stability, including:
– The storming of Capitol Hill on 6 January 2021
– The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022
Both events were forecast in magnitude and timing. The signals were there. They are here again.
What's unfolding now is a sharp escalation in the risk of terrorism, military confrontation, sabotage, and politically driven violence. This is not a call on a single event, but a recognition of a rising tide of instability spanning regions.
Hotspots to watch:
– Ukraine & Eastern Europe: Russian aggression continues; NATO mobilisation intensifies.– Middle East: Iran-Israel tension, asymmetric threats, and proxy volatility.– India & Pakistan: Fragile calm masking deep structural risk.– Sudan, Congo, Ethiopia, Myanmar: Fragile states with regional contagion potential.
– Western cities: Heightened alert around lone-wolf and coordinated attacks.
This is not about fear. It's about foresight.
The Netherlands is hosting a critical NATO summit amid this intensification. The symbolism is clear: the West is no longer reacting, it is preparing. Alliances are being tested. Defence strategies are shifting.
And yet, global markets remain largely focused on rate cuts and inflation, underpricing the true driver of risk this summer: global instability.
This may not be a season defined by a single headline. It may be defined by a drumbeat of escalating events, destabilising, violent, and politically consequential.
For investors, executives, and policymakers: Now is the time to recalibrate portfolios, assumptions, and geopolitical expectations.
June and July 2025 are a season of aggression. The world is on edge. And in a moment like this, ignoring the tension is the most dangerous strategy of all.
What are your thoughts on the unfolding geopolitical risks? We invite you to share your perspectives, analysis, or questions in the comments below.
Let us know by leaving a comment below, or send a WhatsApp to 060 011 021 1
Subscribe to The South African website's newsletters and follow us on WhatsApp, Facebook, X and Bluesky for the latest news.

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Learn with AIFact CheckingText to SpeechAI Summary

Related Articles

The South African

4 hours ago

• The South African

Paul Mashatile highlights South Africa's role as chair of the G20

Deputy President Paul Mashatile has highlighted the importance of solidarity and collaboration in today's rapidly evolving global landscape. Delivering a public lecture at St. Petersburg State University, the Deputy President explained that South Africa's Presidency of the Group of 20 (G20) comes at a time characterised by geopolitical tensions and economic disparities. 'As we gather here today, amidst the tumultuous global crises characterised by rising geopolitical tensions, trade wars, unemployment, inequality, poverty, armed conflicts, and climate catastrophe, it has become very clear that the world needs solidarity now more than ever,' the Deputy President said on Thursday. Deputy President Mashatile arrived in Russia this week for a working visit aimed at strengthening economic and trade ties between the two nations. The visit focuses on enhancing economic cooperation between the two countries in sectors such as agriculture, automotive, energy, and mining industries, as well as cooperation in science and technology. Deputy President Mashatile's speech highlighted South Africa's role as the current chair of the G20 and its commitment to addressing pressing global challenges. South Africa's G20 Presidency theme: 'Solidarity, Equality and Sustainability' articulates the necessary principles of fostering a more inclusive global community. 'Only through exercising solidarity and identifying with each other's struggles can we do justice to the notion of international community or 'Ubuntu'.' Deputy President Mashatile reiterated the importance of global solidarity, urging those present to work together to create a more equitable world. 'We aim to capitalise on the prospects of globalisation while limiting its risks and ensuring that the benefits of economic progress and technological advancement are shared by all,' he said. He called for unity, adding that 'we must build upon that legacy and strengthen our cooperation in science, technology, research, and innovation'. Universities like St. Petersburg State University can play a pivotal role in bridging the priorities of BRICS, the African Union, and the G20. 'Our future lies in knowledge economies, and your institution is a natural partner in this effort,' Mashatile added. The country's second-in-command praised the university's Faculty of International Relations and the Institute for African Studies for their engagement with scholars across Africa. He extended an invitation for deeper collaborations with leading South African institutions, emphasising the mutual benefits that such partnerships could foster. The Deputy President highlighted the university's impressive legacy, noting that it has produced numerous renowned figures, including President Vladimir Putin and the Russian revolutionary Vladimir Lenin. 'The presence of so many renowned scholars, leaders, and diplomats here today is a testament to the university's continued relevance in shaping discourse on global affairs.' The Deputy President reflected on the historical ties between South Africa and Russia, expressing gratitude for the support received during the anti-apartheid struggle. Despite the prevailing geopolitical environment, he said South Africa is steadfast in its commitment to this course. '… And with our G20 Presidency, we possess a unique opportunity to influence the global discourse on critical issues.' The G20 has a significant role to play in fostering global cooperation, collaboration and partnership to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of the 2030 Agenda. He announced the country's G20 Presidency will, through its four overarching priorities, seek to address challenges that stifle the ability of the Global South to achieve desired levels of growth and development. In addition, South Africa will take steps to enhance disaster resilience and response. The country also aims to ensure debt sustainability for low-income nations, mobilise financing for a Just Energy Transition, and seek to leverage critical minerals for inclusive growth and sustainable development. Let us know by leaving a comment below, or send a WhatsApp to 060 011 021 1 Subscribe to The South African website's newsletters and follow us on WhatsApp, Facebook, X and Bluesky for the latest news.

IOL News

5 hours ago

• IOL News

Our Soil, Their War: How Ukraine, NATO and the DA Hijacked South Africa

Ukrainian military intelligence is reportedly conducting covert operations in South Africa, raising serious questions about the implications for national sovereignty and international relations. Image: IOL / Ron AI Last week I reported that Ukrainian military intelligence operatives are conducting clandestine activities in South Africa. Surveillance. Disruption of Russian linked logistics. Plans to attack Russian naval presence in Cape Town. These actions are carried out by GUR agents, foreign military operatives with protected diplomatic status, made legal under a visa agreement quietly ushered in by Democratic Alliance (DA) Minister Leon Schreiber in late 2024. The story broke through veteran Washington Post columnist David Ignatius. His article was not just a piece of reporting. It functioned as an official communique from the heart of the United States intelligence apparatus. Ignatius has long served as a narrative conduit for the CIA and Pentagon. When he singles out South Africa in an exposé about Ukrainian covert war, the implications are pointed. Yet the reaction from South Africa's leadership has been to bury their heads in the sand. No word from President Cyril Ramaphosa. No inquiry from Parliament. No comment from Minister of State Security Khumbudzo Ntshavheni. No diplomatic protest from Minister of International Relations and Cooperation Ronald Lamola. No explanation from Leon Schreiber, Minister of Home Affairs, a department now compromised by Democratic Alliance control. And so the questions remain. Who authorised the presence of a foreign military intelligence force in South Africa? What role did Ramaphosa play in allowing Ukraine to wage shadow warfare from our territory? Why has the state avoided even a minimal response? The GUR claimed they tracked the Lady R to Simon's Town in 2022 and alleged that arms were being transferred to Russia. They admitted to interfering with a Russian cargo flight and acknowledged that their agents contemplated an attack on the Smolnyy, a Russian naval ship docked in Cape Town. These are acts of hostility against a BRICS partner. They were conducted from within our borders. And they have gone unchallenged by the executive. The silence is coordinated. Video Player is loading. Play Video Play Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration -:- Loaded : 0% Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Window Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Dropshadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Advertisement Next Stay Close ✕ Ad loading GUR chief Kyrylo Budanov has publicly declared Ukraine's mission to target Russian assets globally. He posed a rhetorical question to Ignatius: 'Why should Africa be an exception?' It wasn't a question. It was a threat veiled in smug certainty, certainty that the West's sphere of influence now includes South Africa. Ignatius's article performs a layered function. To Pretoria: You are being monitored. Your diplomatic alignments are under audit. The so called 'non aligned' position is seen as defiance, and defiance has consequences. To Moscow: Your partners are compromised. Your alliances in Africa are penetrable. Your backchannels can be severed at will. To Kyiv: Celebrate your reach, but stay within boundaries. The failed attempt to strike the Smolnyy is mentioned, but the narrative steers blame away from Washington. The mission was conceived in Kyiv, not coordinated through Langley. Deniability remains intact. Ignatius uses his platform to draw the blueprint for a global dirty war, a campaign of psychological and covert disruption dressed up as proactive defence. The framing legitimises a foreign military's activities in sovereign countries far from the battlefield. Africa is presented as free territory for geopolitical experimentation. Nowhere in his column does Ignatius interrogate the legality of these actions. He valorises GUR strikes in Mali and Central African Republic, including a drone attack that reportedly killed over 130 people. This is terrorism, not liberation. It is framed as righteous because it aligns with United States foreign policy. The Gaze, a Kyiv based media outlet tightly aligned with Ukrainian government messaging, amplified the South African aspects of the Ignatius story almost immediately. Its coverage read like a warning to Pretoria. The timing points to a coordinated narrative campaign, not a random editorial interest in Africa. The deeper objective becomes clear: push South Africa further from BRICS and closer to North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) interests. Discredit its partnerships. Isolate its diplomatic independence. Expose the African National Congress (ANC)'s internal fractures and accelerate its ideological collapse. Mali Has Severed Diplomatic Ties With Ukraine And is Now Set To Ban Ukrainian Goods From Entering The Country. The decision follows allegations of Ukraine's intelligence support to rēbel groups behind several attācks on Malian Troops and Russian Wagner forces. — Africa Archives (@AfricaArchives_) June 17, 2025 Ramaphosa's silence is more than evasion. It may point to collaboration. His grooming by corporate capital in the 1970s positioned him as a long game candidate for imperial management. Phala Phala exposed a man entangled in quiet deals and unaccountable wealth. His presidency survives scandals that would sink others, because he remains useful. And with each silent concession, the idea of an ANC government dies a little more. The visa exemptions that granted Ukrainian agents access to our soil were signed under a Democratic Alliance controlled ministry. They became active under Ramaphosa's watch. There has been no reassessment of that agreement. No attempt to vet or restrict those entering. No safeguards against abuse. If Ukraine uses South African territory to target Russia, Pretoria becomes complicit. Under the United Nations Charter, this constitutes a breach of international peace. The consequences will not only be diplomatic. They will be structural. South Africa will be recast as a proxy zone in NATO's extended theatre. Its voice on global platforms will carry less weight. Its people will pay the price for elite submission. The Black working class has already seen how white capital benefits from chaos. Under a Democratic Alliance led administration, land reform will stall. Redistribution will be erased. Afrocentric education will vanish. Political resistance will be criminalised under new definitions of extremism. What was claimed back after apartheid will be recolonised before decolonisation ever begins. Black political movements—the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MK), African Transformation Movement (ATM), and others—must see this moment clearly. Fragmentation will ensure the fall. A revolutionary coalition must form, rooted in sovereignty and grounded in anti imperialist clarity. Otherwise, we hand our country to NATO's security architecture wrapped in DA branding. South Africa has become a chessboard. The pawns are moving. The king remains silent. The war has arrived quietly. And our government let it in with both hands. Ukrainian military intelligence is reportedly conducting covert operations in South Africa, raising serious questions about the implications for national sovereignty and international relations. Image: IOL

The Citizen

7 hours ago

• The Citizen

PwC investigated over Choppies audit in Botswana

Stock exchange suspension led to 75% drop in market value. Botswana's Accounting Oversight Authority has launched an investigation into PwC for its role in the delayed publication of the 2018 audit of Choppies Enterprises that resulted in the company being suspended on the JSE and Botswana Stock Exchange, resulting in a 75% drop in market value. The Botswana regulator received a complaint from Choppies's legal team and Justice Zein Kebonang, citing two serious allegations of professional misconduct and ethical breaches by PwC and its former lead auditor Rudi Binedell. 'Central to the complaint is the claim that PwC weaponised confidential internal company data – obtained during its audit engagement – to litigate and defend its own interests in a manner that Choppies' legal representatives argue amounts to abuse of trust and professional overreach,' says Choppies in a statement. The regulator will launch a probe to determine whether PwC and Binedell violated their statutory, professional, and ethical obligations. If found culpable, the fallout could lead to penalties and reputational damage for PwC. Read more 'Same story year after year': MPs unhappy as Auditor-General reveals local government audit outcomes Moneyweb reached out to PwC for a response but had not received a reply by the time of publication. The case is currently before the court in Botswana, where Choppies's largest shareholders – Ramachandran Ottapathu and Farouk Ismail – are seeking over R653 million (Pula 610 million) in damages, alleging PwC's delay in signing off on the retailer's 2018 financial statements, ostensibly due to audit concerns, caused the company's share price to collapse. ALSO READ: Eskom reaches R43 million settlement with PwC over controversial contract Sour grapes? Choppies alleges that PwC's then lead auditor Binedell delayed the 2018 audit report because a job he had been offered at Choppies had not materialised. Earlier this year, the Botswana High Court dismissed a counter-application by PwC alleging improper conduct by two judges in previous rulings. Choppies has also challenged the legitimacy of a 2023 high court ruling by Justice Boipuso Makhwe, arguing that it was tainted by judicial misconduct. There were claims that the judgment was secretly authored by Makhwe's colleague, Justice Kebonang, who had previously ruled in favour of Choppies in 2021, awarding the retailer over P500 million (R668 million) in damages. 'In a striking counteroffensive, Justice Kebonang has since filed an affidavit accusing PwC of orchestrating a smear campaign, fabricating claims, and manipulating legal proceedings to escape liability,' says Choppies. 'He maintains he had no involvement in drafting the disputed judgment and has demanded that the judiciary investigate the matter further.' ALSO READ: Secret Steinhoff PwC report to be handed over on Wednesday to some media Vindication in sight? The Botswana regulator previously fined Choppies P100 000 (R133 000) for late disclosure of its 2018 financials. The regulator's attention now appears to have shifted to PwC's conduct in the matter. Choppies says the investigation by the regulator is a step toward reputational redemption, while for PwC it poses a threat to its credibility in the region, given its previous citations in scandals involving Eskom, Steinhoff and SAA. PwC sent the following response Moneyweb: 'PwC Botswana takes client confidentiality seriously. However, there are certain circumstances where we are required to disclose confidential information to legal or regulatory authorities. We have complied with our legal and professional obligations in this regard, and we are cooperating with the regulator in its investigation.' This article was republished from Moneyweb. Read the original here.