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Daily Maverick
29-04-2025
- Politics
- Daily Maverick
Tensions escalate in South Sudan as Kiir's power moves threaten fragile peace and national unity
As a guarantor of the peace agreement, the African Union must urgently take action to de-escalate political tensions. On 26 March 2025, security personnel led by South Sudan's defence minister and national security chief entered First Vice-President Riek Machar's home, disarmed and removed his security detail, and placed him under house arrest. The catalyst was his alleged role in recent skirmishes between the Dinka-dominated South Sudan People's Defence Forces (SSPDF) and the Nuer militia White Army. These erupted in early March, reportedly triggered by a disagreement over a long overdue rotation of the SSPDF's soldiers in Nasir garrison. Information Minister Michael Makuei said the arrests were directed by President Salva Kiir to prevent attacks on government installations and safeguard the 2018 Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan. The government also arrested several influential opposition ministers and high-ranking military officers from the Sudan People's Liberation Movement-in-Opposition. Airstrikes were authorised in Nasir County and around Juba, and some opposition members have gone into hiding. National tensions have been rising, with unilateral reshuffles in the transitional government of national unity, including at vice-president level. The reshuffles are allegedly linked to Kiir's attempt to orchestrate his succession outside the revitalised agreement. This reveals deep mistrust between the country's two leaders and contravenes the 2018 peace agreement. Complete collapse Given the African Union's (AU) prior investment in stabilising South Sudan, swift action is imperative to prevent a complete collapse. This requires a clear understanding of the causes and implications of the evolving crisis, and the immediate options available to the Peace and Security Council. The violence in Nasir and other areas is a continuation of intermittent violence, institutional fragility, intense political divisions and exclusionary politics that have characterised South Sudan since independence in 2011. Due to longstanding mistrust between Kiir and Machar, neither has unified their armed groups into one national force. This mistrust has fuelled secondary fears tied to the uncertainty of elections and attempts to neutralise holdout groups and influential government figures through mediation and reshuffling. While both leaders are central to national disagreements, conflicts affecting several payams, counties and states overlay national politics, creating a complex interplay between state and national dynamics. In Nasir, national disputes shaped county decisions and snowballed into a pretext to reconfigure transitional government relationships. Similarly, the struggle to maintain the country's patronage infrastructure in the army and body politic remains deep seated. Some interpret Kiir's repeated cabinet reshuffles as counterproductive efforts to assert control over the transitional government amid waning financial leverage and a failing economy. The economic downturn is associated with the sharp decline in oil revenues caused by years of financial mismanagement and Sudan's civil war. Oil accounts for 90% of South Sudan's revenue, and disruptions reduced daily production by about 68% between December 2024 and January 2025. This has undermined political leaders' efforts to sustain patronage and command the loyalty of their armed factions. The integrity and sustainability of the revitalised agreement power-sharing arrangement depend on dialogue among the parties. However, Kiir's unilateral decision making creates the perception that he is consolidating power or preparing for a transition that excludes the opposition and others. The divisions that follow each dismissal have intensified tensions, leading to repeated extensions of the transitional timeframe. Ethnic tensions The recent Nasir violence highlights the failure to even minimally implement the revitalised agreement and its milestones, and has reinforced the ongoing economic distress and mistrust amid ethnic tensions. This has brought the country to a crossroads with various possible outcomes, two of which stand out. First, and most likely, the SSPDF, its associated militia, and armed groups such as the White Army, become entrenched in their positions, attracting additional actors on all sides. Since the Nasir outbreak, all factions have sought revenge for their losses, reinforcing their positions or protecting themselves from perceived threats. This outcome is supported by the ongoing aerial and ground campaigns against the opposition in parts of the country, particularly outside Juba and in Upper Nile. This is evident in government officials' increasingly aggressive rhetoric, the postponement of an Intergovernmental Authority on Development ministers' visit, and the engagement of ethnic groups such as the Shilluk and Equatorias. This outcome could see the collapse of the already precarious peace process. Even the Tumaini high-level process, which was intended to advance the revitalised agreement, is now in limbo. The less likely second scenario is that Machar and some of his lieutenants receive a conditional release, which could lead to an improved but still tense situation. Taban Deng Gai, the vice-president responsible for infrastructure, has advised Machar — while he awaits investigation and trial — to renounce the White Army and allow the government to integrate opposition forces into the SSPDF. However, this would essentially amount to Machar's surrender — and is improbable, as renouncing the White Army would alienate the opposition leader from the Nuer community. Such events would undermine Machar and create opportunities for Kiir's chosen transition actors to dominate the political scene. The degree to which Kiir continues to limit Machar's power will depend largely on Machar's influence in preventing the ascent of Kiir's preferred successors. At the crossroads of these two scenarios is a slim window to salvage the peace process. However, it will become increasingly difficult to address the complex dynamics, including South Sudan's military agreement with Uganda, which may extend beyond the AU Panel of the Wise's scope. Possible escalation In light of possible escalation, the AU — as a revitalised agreement guarantor — must act fast to support ongoing regional de-escalation measures. In addition to Peace and Security Council meetings and calling for the AU High-Level Ad Hoc Committee of Five on South Sudan to support Intergovernmental Authority on Development efforts, the AU could create a contact group with the authority to focus on day-to-day de-escalation measures. A start would be establishing what happened in Nasir and who is responsible. The Peace and Security Council should try to secure the release not just of Machar but all opposition officials who have been arbitrarily detained. The officials should also be reinstated in the structures outlined by the revitalised agreement. These actions are vital to maintain the integrity of the power-sharing agreement. Delayed regional and continental engagement could see violence worsen and the window to salvage the peace process closing further. DM
The Sun
23-04-2025
- Politics
- The Sun
S.Sudan opposition says under fresh govt military attack
JUBA: South Sudan's opposition accused government forces of attacking one of its military positions near the capital on Tuesday as a fragile power-sharing agreement unravelled further. The southern state of Central Equatoria, which includes the capital Juba, was split into areas controlled by government and opposition forces under a 2018 deal that ended South Sudan's five-year civil war, in which an estimated 400,000 people died. The agreement brought President Salva Kiir and his long-time rival, Vice-President Riek Machar, together in a unity government. But the deal has become threatened in recent months as Kiir moves to sideline Machar, who was placed under house arrest last month. The South Sudan People's Defence Forces (SSPDF) 'attacked Panyume cantonment site from multiple directions this morning,' opposition forces spokesman Lam Paul Gabriel said on Facebook. 'They were repulsed from both fronts with heavy casualties on the attacking forces,' he added in an update. The assault was 'followed by an aerial attack targeting and destroying civilians' property and public buildings in Panyume.' Gabriel called on civilians in four counties to evacuate, 'to avoid being caught up in crossfire, as this aggression by the SSPDF is meant to continue making the counties... a zone for operations'. The South Sudanese army did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Facing sustained attacks, the opposition forces commander directed his troops to prepare for conflict, according to another statement by Gabriel on Tuesday. 'Lt. Gen. Peter Thok Chuol hereby directs all sectors, divisions and all units of the SPLA-IO (Sudan People's Liberation Army in Opposition) to be vigilant and promptly defend themselves and the civilians under their control areas,' he said.
News24
22-04-2025
- Politics
- News24
South Sudan opposition says it's under fresh govt military attack
An opposition party has accused South Sudanese government forces of attacking their military position near the capital, escalating tensions. The 2018 power-sharing deal, uniting President Kiir and Vice-President Machar, is unravelling as Kiir sidelines Machar. The opposition warns civilians to evacuate conflict zones as it prepare troops for self-defence amid ongoing SSPDF aggressions. South Sudan's opposition accused government forces of attacking one of its military positions near the capital on Tuesday as a fragile power-sharing agreement unravelled further. The southern state of Central Equatoria, which includes the capital Juba, was split into areas controlled by the government and opposition forces under a 2018 deal that ended South Sudan's five-year civil war, in which an estimated 400 000 people died. The agreement brought President Salva Kiir and his long-time rival, Vice-President Riek Machar, together in a unity government. However, the deal has become threatened recently as Kiir moves to sideline Machar, who was placed under house arrest last month. The South Sudan People's Defence Forces (SSPDF) "attacked Panyume cantonment site from multiple directions this morning," opposition forces spokesperson Lam Paul Gabriel said on Facebook. "They were repulsed from both fronts with heavy casualties on the attacking forces," he added in an update. The assault was "followed by an aerial attack targeting and destroying civilians' property and public buildings in Panyume". Gabriel called on civilians in four counties to evacuate, "to avoid being caught up in crossfire, as this aggression by the SSPDF is meant to continue making the counties... a zone for operations". The South Sudanese army did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Facing sustained attacks, the opposition forces commander directed his troops to prepare for conflict, according to another statement by Gabriel on Tuesday. "Lt. Gen. Peter Thok Chuol hereby directs all sectors, divisions and all units of the SPLA-IO (Sudan People's Liberation Army in Opposition) to be vigilant and promptly defend themselves and the civilians under their control areas," he said.
Daily Tribune
05-03-2025
- Politics
- Daily Tribune
S.Sudan army arrests general, 'violates peace deal': vice-president
Email : South Sudan's military has arrested the deputy head of the armed forces and surrounded the residence of Vice President Riek Machar, escalating tensions and threatening the fragile peace agreement, Machar's spokesperson reported late Tuesday. General Gabriel Doup Lam, a close ally of Machar, was detained on Tuesday following several days of clashes in the Upper Nile state, located in the eastern part of the country. The South Sudan People's Defence Forces (SSPDF), loyal to President Salva Kiir, accused Doup Lam and his troops of collaborating with rebels in the region, which are largely from the same ethnic Nuer community as Lam. Machar's spokesperson, Pal Mai Deng, issued a statement condemning the arrest, stating that it "violates" the 2018 power-sharing agreement that ended five years of civil war. 'This action puts the entire agreement at risk,' the statement said, expressing serious concerns over the heavy deployment of SSPDF troops around Machar's residence. The United Nations Mission in South Sudan reported last month that clashes between the army and armed youth in the Upper Nile state have intensified, with heavy weaponry being used, leading to civilian casualties and injuries among armed personnel. The 2018 peace deal brought an end to a devastating civil war fueled by the rivalry between Kiir and Machar, which resulted in nearly 400,000 deaths. South Sudan, which gained independence from Sudan just two years before the outbreak of the civil war, continues to struggle with poverty and ongoing violence.
