Tensions escalate in South Sudan as Kiir's power moves threaten fragile peace and national unity
As a guarantor of the peace agreement, the African Union must urgently take action to de-escalate political tensions.
On 26 March 2025, security personnel led by South Sudan's defence minister and national security chief entered First Vice-President Riek Machar's home, disarmed and removed his security detail, and placed him under house arrest.
The catalyst was his alleged role in recent skirmishes between the Dinka-dominated South Sudan People's Defence Forces (SSPDF) and the Nuer militia White Army. These erupted in early March, reportedly triggered by a disagreement over a long overdue rotation of the SSPDF's soldiers in Nasir garrison.
Information Minister Michael Makuei said the arrests were directed by President Salva Kiir to prevent attacks on government installations and safeguard the 2018 Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan.
The government also arrested several influential opposition ministers and high-ranking military officers from the Sudan People's Liberation Movement-in-Opposition. Airstrikes were authorised in Nasir County and around Juba, and some opposition members have gone into hiding.
National tensions have been rising, with unilateral reshuffles in the transitional government of national unity, including at vice-president level. The reshuffles are allegedly linked to Kiir's attempt to orchestrate his succession outside the revitalised agreement. This reveals deep mistrust between the country's two leaders and contravenes the 2018 peace agreement.
Complete collapse
Given the African Union's (AU) prior investment in stabilising South Sudan, swift action is imperative to prevent a complete collapse. This requires a clear understanding of the causes and implications of the evolving crisis, and the immediate options available to the Peace and Security Council.
The violence in Nasir and other areas is a continuation of intermittent violence, institutional fragility, intense political divisions and exclusionary politics that have characterised South Sudan since independence in 2011.
Due to longstanding mistrust between Kiir and Machar, neither has unified their armed groups into one national force. This mistrust has fuelled secondary fears tied to the uncertainty of elections and attempts to neutralise holdout groups and influential government figures through mediation and reshuffling.
While both leaders are central to national disagreements, conflicts affecting several payams, counties and states overlay national politics, creating a complex interplay between state and national dynamics. In Nasir, national disputes shaped county decisions and snowballed into a pretext to reconfigure transitional government relationships.
Similarly, the struggle to maintain the country's patronage infrastructure in the army and body politic remains deep seated. Some interpret Kiir's repeated cabinet reshuffles as counterproductive efforts to assert control over the transitional government amid waning financial leverage and a failing economy.
The economic downturn is associated with the sharp decline in oil revenues caused by years of financial mismanagement and Sudan's civil war. Oil accounts for 90% of South Sudan's revenue, and disruptions reduced daily production by about 68% between December 2024 and January 2025. This has undermined political leaders' efforts to sustain patronage and command the loyalty of their armed factions.
The integrity and sustainability of the revitalised agreement power-sharing arrangement depend on dialogue among the parties. However, Kiir's unilateral decision making creates the perception that he is consolidating power or preparing for a transition that excludes the opposition and others. The divisions that follow each dismissal have intensified tensions, leading to repeated extensions of the transitional timeframe.
Ethnic tensions
The recent Nasir violence highlights the failure to even minimally implement the revitalised agreement and its milestones, and has reinforced the ongoing economic distress and mistrust amid ethnic tensions. This has brought the country to a crossroads with various possible outcomes, two of which stand out.
First, and most likely, the SSPDF, its associated militia, and armed groups such as the White Army, become entrenched in their positions, attracting additional actors on all sides. Since the Nasir outbreak, all factions have sought revenge for their losses, reinforcing their positions or protecting themselves from perceived threats.
This outcome is supported by the ongoing aerial and ground campaigns against the opposition in parts of the country, particularly outside Juba and in Upper Nile. This is evident in government officials' increasingly aggressive rhetoric, the postponement of an Intergovernmental Authority on Development ministers' visit, and the engagement of ethnic groups such as the Shilluk and Equatorias.
This outcome could see the collapse of the already precarious peace process. Even the Tumaini high-level process, which was intended to advance the revitalised agreement, is now in limbo.
The less likely second scenario is that Machar and some of his lieutenants receive a conditional release, which could lead to an improved but still tense situation. Taban Deng Gai, the vice-president responsible for infrastructure, has advised Machar — while he awaits investigation and trial — to renounce the White Army and allow the government to integrate opposition forces into the SSPDF.
However, this would essentially amount to Machar's surrender — and is improbable, as renouncing the White Army would alienate the opposition leader from the Nuer community.
Such events would undermine Machar and create opportunities for Kiir's chosen transition actors to dominate the political scene. The degree to which Kiir continues to limit Machar's power will depend largely on Machar's influence in preventing the ascent of Kiir's preferred successors.
At the crossroads of these two scenarios is a slim window to salvage the peace process. However, it will become increasingly difficult to address the complex dynamics, including South Sudan's military agreement with Uganda, which may extend beyond the AU Panel of the Wise's scope.
Possible escalation
In light of possible escalation, the AU — as a revitalised agreement guarantor — must act fast to support ongoing regional de-escalation measures. In addition to Peace and Security Council meetings and calling for the AU High-Level Ad Hoc Committee of Five on South Sudan to support Intergovernmental Authority on Development efforts, the AU could create a contact group with the authority to focus on day-to-day de-escalation measures. A start would be establishing what happened in Nasir and who is responsible.
The Peace and Security Council should try to secure the release not just of Machar but all opposition officials who have been arbitrarily detained. The officials should also be reinstated in the structures outlined by the revitalised agreement.
These actions are vital to maintain the integrity of the power-sharing agreement. Delayed regional and continental engagement could see violence worsen and the window to salvage the peace process closing further. DM
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
The Citizen
8 hours ago
- The Citizen
Iran strike: Another fuel crisis looming?
Sharp curbs on exports reminiscent of 1973 may follow. Participants shout slogans during an anti-war demonstration in Boston, Massachusetts, on 22 June 2025, protesting US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. Picture: Joseph Prezioso / AFP Will the history of just over 50 years ago repeat itself in the form of another Middle East oil boycott or shortage, following the US intervention in the war between Israel and Iran? That's the question consumers – and especially motorists – as well as experts are pondering in the wake of the weekend air strikes by American bombers of Iran's nuclear facilities. In 1973, the Arab-Israeli war saw the Arab-dominated Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries putting in place sharp curbs on exports. This not only forced a massive rise in fuel prices, but saw many countries in the West hit by sudden fuel shortages. Drastic steps taken in SA during fuel shortage In South Africa, the government took drastic steps, including lowering the national speed limit from 120km/h to 80km/h and banning fuel sales after hours and over weekends. The trauma of that fuel shortage led directly to the then National Party government establishing a Strategic Fuel Reserve for the country. ALSO READ: Did the US strikes succeed, and how will Iran respond? Economist Dawie Roodt said SA can expect some more clarity on what exactly to expect in the days to come. 'We will have to wait and see,' he said, adding it might affect petrol prices and inflation rate and weaken the rand. 'This could be quite a thing for South Africa. It just depends on how long it goes on and how serious it is,' he said. Senior political lecturer at North-West University Dr Benjamin Rapanyane said conflicts like this one have a way of disrupting international peace and the flow of trade. 'The worst-case scenario would be the disruptions of shipments in the Strait of Hormuz. This may have a devastating impact on Africa in general and South Africa in particular,' he said. ALSO READ: US joins Israel-Iran conflict with overnight bombing campaign Political analyst Piet Croucamp said it could mean nothing or something. 'Nothing in the sense of let's stay out of it, which is hardly possible given the court case SA has against Israel,' he said. 'There's a universal condemnation of Israel for what they have been doing in Gaza and also the attack on Iran, which is against the United Nations resolutions.' Croucamp said it might be hard for SA to stay out of it. 'So many people around the world are concerned about the consequences of what is being done to Iran, but we are also concerned about Gaza,' he said. 'We dare not shut up. We have to say something. Not from a moral high ground because we cannot afford that, too, but it doesn't mean that we don't get to say something.' ALSO READ: What Israel–Iran conflict means for South African economy Political analyst Roland Henwood said there were no immediate implications. 'Indirectly, it will depend on how the situation develops. Politically, the reaction from SA, Brics and other international organisations and governments will be important to follow,' he said. 'If SA reacts very strongly against America and in favour of Iran, it may have negative political consequences. Other outcomes will include the effects of increased oil prices.' Henwood said this may have short-term or long-term implications for the country. 'So far, the reactions from the rest of the world have been rather muted. We will have to see how this situation develops,' he added.
IOL News
5 days ago
- IOL News
'The future is yours': Dlamini-Zuma rallies Africa's youth to seize power and shape the continent
Empowering Africa's youth: Key takeaways from Dlamini Zuma's Y20 2025 Pre-Summit address Image: Thabo Makwakwa In an address at the Y20 2025 Pre-Summit hosted by South Africa, former African Union Chair Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma delivered a rallying cry for Africa's youth and women to become the cornerstone of the continent's future development. Her speech at the Innovation Hub in Pretoria on Monday, marked by passion and urgency, highlighted that Africa must seize its narrative and chart a new course that is rooted in inclusive growth, peace, and sustainable development. Dlamini-Zuma began by reflecting on Africa's long history, noting that it has often been misunderstood or misrepresented 'For a long time in our history, we have struggled to define our own story,' she said. 'We are a continent blessed with 60% of the world's sunshine, yet we face a staggering 60% unemployment rate among our youth. It's time to turn the tide.' Highlighting the demographic realities of Africa, by 2050, the majority of the population will be young. Dlamini-Zuma called on the current generation of young people and women to be the backbone of development. 'This generation must be the drivers of peace and development. There can be no peace without development, and no development without peace,' she asserted. She urged governments and stakeholders to make education and skills training more accessible, stating that 'young people have the right to education, and they must actively pursue it.' She challenged youth to see themselves as beneficiaries and active infrastructure, industry, and economic growth contributors. Dlamini-Zuma drew attention to the continent's rich mineral resources and criticised the legacy of resource exploitation. Video Player is loading. Play Video Play Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration -:- Loaded : 0% Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Window Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Dropshadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Advertisement Video Player is loading. Play Video Play Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration -:- Loaded : 0% Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Window Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Dropshadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Next Stay Close ✕ 'Our minerals have long been mined and exported without value addition,' she said. 'We must stop the leakage of our resources and instead process them locally to create jobs and economic benefits for our people.' She stated the importance of developing the ocean economy and expanding participation in mineral processing industries, urging young Africans to engage in these sectors to foster sustainable growth. The former AU Chair stressed the need for Africa's development models to prioritise inclusivity. 'If we continue to ignore inequality, it will threaten our livelihood,' she warned. 'Our approach must be different—focused on empowering youth and women, promoting entrepreneurship, and ensuring that no one is left behind.' Dlamini-Zuma also spoke out against exclusion, criticising the summit's failure to include sign language interpreters for those with hearing impairments. 'We cannot have genuine participation if we leave behind those with disabilities,' she said, calling for more inclusive policies in future forums. She highlighted the importance of youth involvement in global issues, recalling Africa's historic support for anti-apartheid struggles and emphasising solidarity with oppressed peoples worldwide, including Palestine. 'Our youth have historically stood against injustice,' she noted. 'They must continue to be drivers of peace, solidarity, and justice across the globe.' She called for ongoing dialogue among young people, urging them to build movements, demand accountability, and unite around justice and development. 'The future belongs to you,' she said. 'Your actions today will echo worldwide.'
The Citizen
5 days ago
- The Citizen
Rethinking conflict on the African battlefield
As wars escalate and peace efforts flounder, Eeben Barlow's innovative military strategy speaks directly to Africa's realities and its need for self-driven solutions. Africa is the most conflict-prone continent in the world. From the civil war raging in Sudan to the killing fields of the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and the terrorist hotbeds from the Sahel in the west to Somalia in the east and Mozambique in the south – violence plagues Africa's citizens and governments. What is clear from these escalatory spirals of carnage is that existing responses – both African and foreign – are simply not working. The African Union's much-vaunted African Security Architecture built on the effective functioning of Regional Economic Communities' acting as first responders to trouble in their region has been a dismal failure. We are witnessing the unravelling of the Economic Community of West Africa States as former members of the bloc have withdrawn to form their own Alliance of Sahel States bloc. Meanwhile, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) has failed dismally in its interventions in both Mozambique and the DRC. Similarly, failure has bedevilled the plethora of foreign interventions from multiple external actors – including the French, Russians, Türkiye, the US, China, the various Gulf States and the United Nations. ALSO READ: China's clever trade deal with Africa – removal of tariffs on most goods Indeed, based on the magnifying conflict trajectories one could well argue that the situation is far worse now than before the intervention began. This failure could well be the result of donor-driven agendas at military transformation and the instilling of a military doctrine which scarcely speaks to the uniqueness of the African battlefield. Often, American and European military training programmes seek to create clones of their armed forces on a continent with a different political and economic reality and a hugely disparate military culture. It is in this context that General Eeben Barlow sets out his highly innovative approach to conflict – and especially that plaguing the continent in the form of asymmetric warfare. He details his theories and practice in his book, Composite Warfare: The Conduct of Successful Ground Force Operations in Africa. His approach has been informed by his 40 years experience as a front-line officer and CEO of the most successful private military company in the world – Executive Outcomes. ALSO READ: Google Open Buildings helping strengthen community resilience Barlow describes 'composite warfare' as a '…proven, intelligence-driven, whole-of-government approach that integrates multiple domains of warfare such as land, air, sea, intelligence, information and cyberspace, along with the pillars of state to achieve a desired national strategic outcome'. The revised and expanded 2025 edition of Composite Warfare speaks to African conditions and arose out of the author's successful engagement across a myriad African battlefields. It is bottom-up, it is flexible and speaks to offensive, defensive and containment strategies. Moreover, the whole-of-government approach speaks to the reality of more comprehensive approaches to address much of the insurgencies scarring African nations, where a military approach needs to be combined with both better governance and economic development. The author demonstrates the mastery of his subject by effortlessly straddling strategic, operational and tactical concepts. To the uninitiated on the complexity of the African theatres of conflict, there are case studies and maps and figures which clarify the concepts deployed. ALSO READ: Africa elects its next 'super banker' One of the great strengths of the book lie in its ability to simplify complex strategic phenomenon and therefore will be ideal to be used as a prescribed text for every military college. Another great advantage of the book is the logical sequence in which it was structured. It is lear to me that the author took tremendous care in setting out the context of the African battle space, providing much-needed background on the nature of conflict and war in Africa. Parts II and III then take the reader through conventional and unconventional manoeuvres covering such diverse areas as the advance, the attack the defence, armed antigovernment conflicts, guerrilla warfare and the planning of counter-anti-government operations. Part IV, comprising five chapters, focuses on compositive warfare operations. It is in this chapter where one vividly sees how the whole-of-government approach works in practice from the principles of composite warfare to unconventional mobile operations and the African pillars of war, to structuring ground forces for composite warfare operations, as well as reflections on how to respond to issues of stability in Africa's fragile and failed states. The numerous appendices, some never before published, add to the value of this work. This book is a tour de force and with it, Barlow has cemented his reputation as Africa's best strategic studies thinker and practitioner. Will policymakers listen to the sage words of Eeben Barlow? NOW READ: Kenyan author and literary giant Ngũgĩ wa Thiong'o dies
