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Times
3 days ago
- Politics
- Times
How the world could start a nuclear war by accident
The growing use of artificial intelligence in military planning could increase the risk of accidental nuclear war, a leading arms control monitor has said. In its annual report, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri), the leading independent body assessing worldwide nuclear forces, says the world's nuclear stockpiles are about to be no longer in decline. The stocks had been declining since the end of the Cold War. It highlights the fast-increasing stocks of China, which have grown from 500 to 600 warheads in the year, and the imminent expiry of the last remaining arms control treaty between the United States and Russia. The institute's director, Dan Smith, also warns that the new arms race 'carries much more risk and uncertainty than the last one', not least because of the development of new technologies. 'One component of the coming arms race will be the attempt to gain and maintain a competitive edge in artificial intelligence (AI), both for offensive and defensive purposes,' he writes in the report's introduction. 'There are benefits to be found but the careless adoption of AI could significantly increase nuclear risk.' He says that AI and quantum technologies could make it easier to assess compliance with any nuclear agreements that are forged. But they encourage speedier — and possibly less considered — decision-making. 'As the new technologies speed up decision-making in a crisis, there is also the risk of a war as a result of miscommunication, misunderstanding or even a technical accident,' he says. Nine countries possess nuclear weapons. Five are the permanent members of the United Nations security council, and signatories of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT): the United States, Russia, China, Britain and France. Two declared nuclear powers, India and Pakistan, did not sign the NPT, while a third, North Korea, withdrew before conducting its first nuclear test. Israel neither signed the NPT, nor declared its nuclear weapons, but is believed to possess about 90 warheads. China has been expanding its arsenal fastest. President Xi ordered a modernisation of China's entire military but particularly its missile and nuclear capabilities, reportedly after details emerged about the decay of its missile silos. The modernisation appears to be working. The Sipri report says 350 new intercontinental ballistic missile silos have been completed, or are near completion, as of January this year. However, its total number of warheads remains a fraction of those possessed by either America or Russia: together they hold nine in ten of the world's nuclear weapons. As their relations have worsened since 2000, and an aggressive new breed of American strategists have questioned whether US choices should be restrained by international treaties, their existing arms control measures have fallen away. The so-called 'New Start' (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) agreed by Presidents Obama and Putin in 2010 expires next February with no sign that it will be renewed in any form. Until now, the disposal of old nuclear warheads has meant that the total arsenal has declined rapidly since the fall of the Berlin Wall. That trend is now over, the report suggests. 'The sizes of their respective military stockpiles seem to have stayed relatively stable in 2024 but both states are implementing extensive modernisation programmes that could increase the size and diversity of their arsenals in the future,' it says. The Sipri report raises the case of Lieutenant Colonel Stanislav Petrov, the Soviet officer sometimes heralded as the man who saved the world from nuclear Armageddon. In 1983, Petrov decided unilaterally but correctly that a computer which told him five American nuclear missiles were on their way to strike Russia was wrong. Jeffrey Kaplow, who researches nuclear security at the University of William and Mary in Virginia, said AI , if programmed well, could be used to assess risk in such circumstances better than humans. 'There's this idea that human decision-making in a crisis is not that great,' he said. AI could help leaders navigate the cultural context and goals of their 'opposition' more clearly, he said.'The signs are that a new nuclear arms race is gearing up,' Smith concludes. 'Compared to the last one, the risks are likely to be more diverse and more serious.'
Times
4 days ago
- Politics
- Times
China's nuclear buildup raises fears of AI-driven war
The growing use of artificial intelligence in military planning could increase the risk of accidental nuclear war, a leading arms control monitor has said. In its annual report, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri), the leading independent body assessing worldwide nuclear forces, says the world's nuclear stockpiles are about to be no longer in decline. The stocks had been declining since the end of the Cold War. It highlights the fast-increasing stocks of China, which have grown from 500 to 600 warheads in the year, and the imminent expiry of the last remaining arms control treaty between the United States and Russia. The institute's director, Dan Smith, also warns that the new arms race 'carries much more risk and uncertainty than the last one', not least because of the development of new technologies.
Time of India
4 days ago
- Politics
- Time of India
China has world's fastest growing nuclear arsenal: SIPRI
China has the world's fastest growing nuclear arsenal and has been adding 100 new warheads every year while India has also slightly expanded its arsenal and continues to develop new delivery systems, a report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute says. The findings suggest that arsenals of nine nuclear-armed states are expanding at a time of geopolitical uncertainty and the global inventory stands at 12,241 warheads, with the US and Russia accounting for nearly 90% of these. The scale of Chinese nuclear expansion is unprecedented. It has been adding 100 warheads a year since 2023, taking the total to 600. As per projections, China will touch 1,500 warheads by 2035. It is also close to completing the construction of 350 new intercontinental ballistic missile silos in the north and east of the country. "China could potentially have at least as many ICBMs as either Russia or the USA by the turn of the decade. Yet even if China reaches the maximum projected number of 1,500 warheads by 2035, that will still amount to only about one third of each of the current Russian and US nuclear stockpiles." Live Events On India, Sipri says India has slightly expanded its arsenal to 180 warheads, adding eight from the previous number of 172 and has been developing new missiles that will be capable of launching multiple warheads. "India's new 'canisterized' missiles, which can be transported with mated warheads, may be capable of carrying nuclear warheads during peacetime, and possibly even multiple warheads on each missile, once they become operational," the report says, noting new variants of the Agni series of missiles that have been tested in the recent past. Pakistan too is developing new missiles, but Sipri estimates that it has not added more warheads and the number remains static at 170.
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Business Standard
5 days ago
- Politics
- Business Standard
China's nuclear arsenal growing fastest globally, may hit 1,500 by 2035
China's nuclear arsenal is growing faster than that of any other country, adding roughly 100 new warheads per year since 2023, according to estimates by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri). In its annual report on armaments, disarmament, and international security released on Monday, the institute said China is now estimated to hold at least 600 nuclear warheads. ICBM silos and long-term nuclear ambitions By January 2025, China had either completed or was nearing completion of around 350 new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) silos. These silos span three major desert sites in the north and three mountainous regions in the east of the country. If China maintains its current trajectory, it could possess a number of ICBMs comparable to those of Russia or the United States by 2030. Still, even if China reaches the upper estimate of 1,500 nuclear warheads by 2035, this would amount to only about one-third of the current arsenals of the US or Russia. Sipri Director Dan Smith raised concerns about the weakening of nuclear arms control frameworks and the risk of a renewed arms race. 'China is increasing its nuclear force steadily,' Smith warned, adding that the country could potentially reach 1,000 warheads within the next seven to eight years. Israel, India and Pakistan also expanding capabilities Israel—while officially maintaining strategic ambiguity regarding its nuclear weapons—is believed to be upgrading its arsenal. In 2024, it tested a missile propulsion system, potentially linked to its Jericho series of nuclear-capable ballistic missiles. Israel also appears to be enhancing its plutonium production reactor at the Dimona facility. India, meanwhile, expanded its nuclear stockpile in 2024 and continued developing new types of delivery systems, including 'canisterised' missiles. Once fully developed, these systems could enable India to store missiles with warheads already mounted and may allow for multiple warheads per missile. Pakistan also advanced its nuclear programme in 2024, developing new delivery systems and increasing its fissile material stock. Sipri analysts say this indicates a likely expansion of Pakistan's arsenal in the coming years. India-Pakistan tensions nearly spark nuclear crisis Earlier in 2025, military tensions between India and Pakistan escalated into a brief armed conflict. According to Sipri, this episode included strikes on nuclear-related military infrastructure and saw a surge in third-party disinformation campaigns. 'The combination of strikes on nuclear-related military infrastructure and third-party disinformation risked turning a conventional conflict into a nuclear crisis,' said Matt Korda, Associate Senior Researcher at Sipri's Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme and Associate Director at the Nuclear Information Project at FAS. 'This should act as a stark warning for states seeking to increase their reliance on nuclear weapons. Global nuclear stockpile in 2025 As of January 2025, the global nuclear stockpile was estimated at 12,241 warheads. Of these, about 9,614 were in military stockpiles and available for potential use. Around 3,912 warheads were deployed on missiles or aircraft, with the rest held in central storage. Approximately 2,100 of these deployed warheads were kept on high operational alert and mounted on ballistic missiles—nearly all of them belonging to either Russia or the United States. However, Sipri now suggests that China may also be maintaining some of its warheads in a launch-ready state during peacetime.
Straits Times
5 days ago
- Politics
- Straits Times
World entering new era as nuclear powers build up arsenals, Stockholm think tank says
World entering new era as nuclear powers build up arsenals, Stockholm think tank says STOCKHOLM - The world's nuclear-armed states are beefing up their atomic arsenals and walking out of arms control pacts, creating a new era of threat that has brought an end to decades of reductions in stockpiles since the Cold War, a think tank said on June 16. Of the total global inventory of an estimated 12,241 warheads in January 2025, about 9,614 were in military stockpiles for potential use, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri) said in its yearbook, an annual inventory of the world's most dangerous weapons. Around 2,100 of the deployed warheads were kept in a state of high operational alert on ballistic missiles, nearly all belonging to either the US or Russia. Sipri said global tensions had seen the nine nuclear states - the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea and Israel - plan to increase their stockpiles. 'The era of reductions in the number of nuclear weapons in the world, which had lasted since the end of the Cold War, is coming to an end,' Sipri said. 'Instead, we see a clear trend of growing nuclear arsenals, sharpened nuclear rhetoric and the abandonment of arms control agreements.' It said Russia and the US, which together possess around 90 per cent of all nuclear weapons, had kept the sizes of their respective useable warheads relatively stable in 2024. But both were implementing extensive modernisation programmes that could increase the size of their arsenals in the future. The fastest-growing arsenal is China's, with Beijing adding about 100 new warheads a year since 2023. China could potentially have at least as many intercontinental ballistic missiles as either Russia or the US by the turn of the decade. According to the estimates, Russia and the US held around 5,459 and 5,177 nuclear warheads respectively, while China had around 600. REUTERS Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.
