Latest news with #OleHvalbye
CNBC
16 hours ago
- Business
- CNBC
Oil to open higher as U.S. strikes on Iran boost supply risk premium
Oil is likely to rise by $3 to $5 per barrel when trading resumes on Sunday evening after the U.S. attacked Iran at the weekend, market analysts said, with gains expected to accelerate only if Iran retaliates hard and causes a major oil supply disruption. U.S. President Donald Trump said he had "obliterated" Iran's main nuclear sites in strikes overnight, joining an Israeli assault in an escalation of conflict in the Middle East as Tehran vowed to defend itself. Iran is OPEC's third-largest crude producer. Global oil benchmark Brent crude could gain $3 to $5 per barrel when markets open, SEB analyst Ole Hvalbye said in a note. Brent settled at $77.01 a barrel on Friday and U.S. crude oil at $73.84 a barrel. "An oil price jump is expected," said Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad and a former OPEC official. "Even in the absence of immediate retaliation, markets are likely to price in a higher geopolitical risk premium." Crude had settled down on Friday after the U.S. imposed fresh Iran-related sanctions, including on two entities based in Hong Kong, and counter-terrorism-related sanctions, according to a notice posted to the U.S. Treasury Department website. Brent has risen 11% while WTI has gained around 10% since the conflict began on June 13 with Israel targeting Iran's nuclear sites and Iranian missiles hitting buildings in Tel Aviv. Currently stable supply conditions and the availability of spare production capacity among other OPEC members have limited oil's gains. Risk premiums have typically faded when no supply disruptions occurred, said Giovanni Staunovo, analyst at UBS. "The direction of oil prices from here will depend on whether there are supply disruptions — which would likely result in higher prices — or if there is a de-escalation in the conflict, resulting in a fading risk premium," he said. A senior Iranian lawmaker on June 19 said that the country could shut the Strait of Hormuz as a way of hitting back against its enemies, though a second member of parliament said this would only happen if Tehran's vital interests were endangered. About a fifth of the world's total oil consumption passes through the strait. SEB said that any closure of the strait or spillover into other regional producers would "significantly lift" oil prices, but said they saw this scenario as a tail risk rather than a base case given China's reliance on Gulf crude. Ajay Parmar, oil and energy transition analytics director at consultancy ICIS, said it was unlikely Iran would be able to enforce a blockage of the strait for too long. "Most of Iran's oil exports to China pass through this strait and Trump is unlikely to tolerate the inevitable subsequent oil price spike for too long — the diplomatic pressure from the world's two largest economies would also be significant," he said.
Dubai Eye
13-06-2025
- Business
- Dubai Eye
Oil jumps nearly 9% after Israel's strikes on Iran
Oil prices jumped nearly 9 per cent on Friday to near multi-month highs after Israel launched strikes against Iran, sparking Iranian retaliation and raising worries about a disruption in Middle East oil supplies. Brent crude futures were up $6.19, or around 8.9 per cent, to $75.55 a barrel at 1019 GMT, after hitting an intraday high of $78.50, the highest since January 27. US West Texas Intermediate crude was up $6.22, or 9.1 per cent, at $74.26 after hitting $77.62, its highest level since January 21. Friday's gains were the largest intraday moves for both contracts since 2022, after Russia's invasion of Ukraine caused a spike in energy prices. Israel said it had targeted Iran's nuclear facilities, ballistic missile factories and military commanders on Friday at the start of what it warned would be a prolonged operation to prevent Tehran from building an atomic weapon, while Iran has promised a harsh response. US President Donald Trump urged Iran to make a deal over its nuclear programme, to put an end to the "next already planned attacks". The National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company said oil refining and storage facilities had not been damaged and continued to operate. The primary concern was whether the latest developments would affect the Strait of Hormuz, said SEB analyst Ole Hvalbye. The key waterway had been at risk of impact from increased regional volatility previously but had not been affected so far, Hvalbye said. There also was no impact to oil flow in the region so far, he added. About a fifth of the world's total oil consumption passes through the strait, or some 18 to 19 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil, condensate and fuel. Analysts at consultancy Sparta Commodities said that any significant crude supply disruptions would lead to sour crude grades being marginally priced out of refineries in favour of light sweets. Under a worst case scenario, JPMorgan analysts said on Thursday that closing the strait or a retaliatory response from major oil producing countries in the region could lead to oil prices surging to $120-130 a barrel, nearly double their current base case forecast. "The key question now is whether this oil rally will last longer than the weekend or a week - our signal is that there is a lower probability of a full-blown war, and the oil price rally will likely encounter resistance," said Janiv Shah, analyst at Rystad. "Fundamentals show nearly all Iranian exports going to China, so Chinese discounted purchases would be most at risk here. OPEC+ spare capacity can provide the stabilizing force," he added. In other markets, stocks dived and there was a rush to safe havens such as gold and the Swiss franc. An increase in oil prices would also dampen the outlook for the German economy, the economic institute DIW Berlin said on Friday. It is the only G7 nation that has recorded no economic growth for two consecutive years. "The increased uncertainty speaks in favour of a higher risk premium on the oil price, which is why it is unlikely to fall below $70 on a sustained basis for the time being... Fundamental data is taking a back seat in the current situation," analysts at Commerzbank said in a note.
ARN News Center
13-06-2025
- Business
- ARN News Center
Oil jumps nearly 9% after Israel's strikes on Iran
Oil prices jumped nearly 9 per cent on Friday to near multi-month highs after Israel launched strikes against Iran, sparking Iranian retaliation and raising worries about a disruption in Middle East oil supplies. Brent crude futures were up $6.19, or around 8.9 per cent, to $75.55 a barrel at 1019 GMT, after hitting an intraday high of $78.50, the highest since January 27. US West Texas Intermediate crude was up $6.22, or 9.1 per cent, at $74.26 after hitting $77.62, its highest level since January 21. Friday's gains were the largest intraday moves for both contracts since 2022, after Russia's invasion of Ukraine caused a spike in energy prices. Israel said it had targeted Iran's nuclear facilities, ballistic missile factories and military commanders on Friday at the start of what it warned would be a prolonged operation to prevent Tehran from building an atomic weapon, while Iran has promised a harsh response. US President Donald Trump urged Iran to make a deal over its nuclear programme, to put an end to the "next already planned attacks". The National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company said oil refining and storage facilities had not been damaged and continued to operate. The primary concern was whether the latest developments would affect the Strait of Hormuz, said SEB analyst Ole Hvalbye. The key waterway had been at risk of impact from increased regional volatility previously but had not been affected so far, Hvalbye said. There also was no impact to oil flow in the region so far, he added. About a fifth of the world's total oil consumption passes through the strait, or some 18 to 19 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil, condensate and fuel. Analysts at consultancy Sparta Commodities said that any significant crude supply disruptions would lead to sour crude grades being marginally priced out of refineries in favour of light sweets. Under a worst case scenario, JPMorgan analysts said on Thursday that closing the strait or a retaliatory response from major oil producing countries in the region could lead to oil prices surging to $120-130 a barrel, nearly double their current base case forecast. "The key question now is whether this oil rally will last longer than the weekend or a week - our signal is that there is a lower probability of a full-blown war, and the oil price rally will likely encounter resistance," said Janiv Shah, analyst at Rystad. "Fundamentals show nearly all Iranian exports going to China, so Chinese discounted purchases would be most at risk here. OPEC+ spare capacity can provide the stabilizing force," he added. In other markets, stocks dived and there was a rush to safe havens such as gold and the Swiss franc. An increase in oil prices would also dampen the outlook for the German economy, the economic institute DIW Berlin said on Friday. It is the only G7 nation that has recorded no economic growth for two consecutive years. "The increased uncertainty speaks in favour of a higher risk premium on the oil price, which is why it is unlikely to fall below $70 on a sustained basis for the time being... Fundamental data is taking a back seat in the current situation," analysts at Commerzbank said in a note.
Business Recorder
13-06-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
Oil jumps nearly 9% after Israel's strikes on Iran
Oil prices jumped nearly 9% on Friday to near multi-month highs after Israel launched strikes against Iran, sparking Iranian retaliation and raising worries about a disruption in Middle East oil supplies. Brent crude futures were up $6.19, or around 8.9%, to $75.55 a barrel at 1019 GMT, after hitting an intraday high of $78.50, the highest since January 27. US West Texas Intermediate crude was up $6.22, or 9.1%, at $74.26 after hitting $77.62, its highest level since January 21. Friday's gains were the largest intraday moves for both contracts since 2022, after Russia's invasion of Ukraine caused a spike in energy prices. said it had targeted Iran's nuclear facilities, ballistic missile factories and military commanders on Friday at the start of what it warned would be a prolonged operation to prevent Tehran from building an atomic weapon, while Iran has promised a harsh response. US President Donald Trump urged Iran to make a deal over its nuclear programme, to put an end to the 'next already planned attacks.' The National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company said oil refining and storage facilities had not been damaged and continued to operate. The primary concern was whether the latest developments would affect the Strait of Hormuz, said SEB analyst Ole Hvalbye. The key waterway had been at risk of impact from increased regional volatility previously but had not been affected so far, Hvalbye said. There also was no impact to oil flow in the region so far, he added. About a fifth of the world's total oil consumption passes through the strait, or some 18 to 19 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil, condensate and fuel. Analysts at consultancy Sparta Commodities said that any significant crude supply disruptions would lead to sour crude grades being marginally priced out of refineries in favour of light sweets. Under a worst case scenario, JPMorgan analysts said on Thursday that closing the strait or a retaliatory response from major oil producing countries in the region could lead to oil prices surging to $120-130 a barrel, nearly double their current base case forecast. 'The key question now is whether this oil rally will last longer than the weekend or a week - our signal is that there is a lower probability of a full-blown war, and the oil price rally will likely encounter resistance,' said Janiv Shah, analyst at Rystad. Oil prices drop as traders gauge ME tensions 'Fundamentals show nearly all Iranian exports going to China, so Chinese discounted purchases would be most at risk here. OPEC+ spare capacity can provide the stabilizing force,' he added. In other markets, stocks dived and there was a rush to safe havens such as gold and the Swiss franc. An increase in oil prices would also dampen the outlook for the German economy, the economic institute DIW Berlin said on Friday. It is the only G7 nation that has recorded no economic growth for two consecutive years. 'The increased uncertainty speaks in favour of a higher risk premium on the oil price, which is why it is unlikely to fall below $70 on a sustained basis for the time being … Fundamental data is taking a back seat in the current situation,' analysts at Commerzbank said in a note.
Time of India
13-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Oil jumps over 7% after Israel's strikes on Iran
Oil prices jumped more than 7per cent on Friday, trading near multi-month highs after Israel launched widescale strikes against Iran, sparking Iranian retaliation and raising worries about disrupted oil supplies. Brent crude futures jumped $5.1, or around 7.4per cent , to $74.46 a barrel by 0843 GMT after hitting an intraday high of $78.50, the highest since January 27. US West Texas Intermediate crude was up $5.1, or 7.5per cent , at $73.15 a barrel after hitting a high of $77.62, its highest level since January 21. Friday's gains were the largest intraday moves for both contracts since 2022, after Russia's invasion of Ukraine caused a spike in energy prices. Israel said it targeted Iran's nuclear facilities, ballistic missile factories and military commanders on Friday at the start of what it warned would be a prolonged operation to prevent Tehran from building an atomic weapon. Iran's nuclear facility in Natanz was damaged, the country's atomic energy organisation said in a statement, but investigations have not shown any radioactive or chemical contamination outside the site. The primary concern was around whether the latest developments would affect the Strait of Hormuz, said SEB analyst Ole Hvalbye. The key waterway had been at risk of impact from increased regional volatility previously but had not been affected so far, Hvalbye said. There was also no impact to oil flow in the region so far, he added. About a fifth of the world's total oil consumption passes through the strait, or some 18 to 19 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil, condensate and fuel. Under a worst case scenario, JPMorgan analysts said on Thursday that closing the strait or a retaliatory response from major oil producing countries in the region could lead to prices surging to the $120-130 a barrel range, nearly double their current base case forecast. The $10 a barrel price gain in the past three days had yet to reflect any drop in Iranian oil production, let alone an escalation that could involve disruption to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, Barclays analyst Amarpreet Singh said in a note. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio called Israeli strikes against Iran a "unilateral action" and said Washington was not involved while also urging Tehran not to target US interests or personnel in the region. "The key question now is whether this oil rally will last longer than the weekend or a week - our signal is that there is a lower probability of a full-blown war, and the oil price rally will likely encounter resistance," said Janiv Shah, analyst at Rystad. "Fundamentals show nearly all Iranian exports going to China, so Chinese discounted purchases would be most at risk here. OPEC+ spare capacity can provide the stabilizing force," he added. In other markets, stocks dived and there was a rush to safe havens such as gold and the Swiss franc. "A key question is whether the Iranian retaliation will be limited to Israel or if the leadership will seek to internationalize the cost of tonight's action by targeting bases and critical economic infrastructure across the wider region," RBC Capital analyst Helima Croft said in a note.
