Latest news with #OMCs
Business Recorder
11 hours ago
- Business
- Business Recorder
Buying at PSX, KSE-100 gains over 600 points
Buying momentum was observed at the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX), with the benchmark KSE-100 Index gaining over 600 points during the opening minutes of trading on Friday. At 9:35am, the benchmark index was hovering at 120,609.85 level, an increase of 607.26 points or 0.51%. Across-the-board buying was seen in key sectors including automobile assemblers, cement, commercial banks, oil and gas exploration companies, OMCs, power generation and refinery. Index-heavy stocks including PRL, HUBCO, PSO, SNGPL, MARI, OGDC, POL, PPL, NBP, MEBL and UBL traded in the green. On Thursday, the PSX experienced another downbeat trading day, with most key indices registering declines despite some individual company gains. The KSE-100 index dropped by 463.34 points or 0.38% to end the day at 120,002.59. Globally, share markets in Asia struggled for direction on Friday as fears of a potential U.S. attack on Iran hung over markets, while oil prices were poised to rise for a third straight week on the escalating Israel-Iran conflict. Overnight, Israel bombed nuclear targets in Iran, and Iran fired missiles and drones at Israel as a week-old air war intensified with no sign yet of an exit strategy from either side. The White House said President Donald Trump will decide in the next two weeks whether the U.S. will get involved in the Israel-Iran war. The U.S. President is facing uproar from some of his MAGA base over a possible strike on Iran. Brent fell 2% on Friday to $77.22 per barrel, but is still headed for a strong weekly gain of 4%, following a 12% surge the previous week. Still, a cautious mood prevailed in markets with Nasdaq futures and S&P 500 futures both 0.3% lower in Asia. U.S. markets were closed for the Juneteenth holiday, offering little direction for Asia. The MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan edged up 0.1% but was set for a weekly drop of 1%. Japan's Nikkei slipped 0.2%. China's blue chips rose 0.3%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 0.5%, after the central bank held the benchmark lending rates steady as widely expected. In the currency markets, the dollar was on the back foot again, slipping 0.2% to 145.17 yen after data showed Japan's core inflation hit a two-year high in May, which kept pressure on the Bank of Japan to resume interest rate hikes. Investors, however, see little prospect of a rate hike from the BOJ until December this year, which is a little over 50% priced in. This is an intra-day update
Time of India
13 hours ago
- Business
- Time of India
Crude oil price rise to increase import bill by $13–14 bn, widen CAD by 0.3% of GDP: ICRA
New Delhi: A $10 per barrel increase in average crude oil prices could raise India's net oil imports by $13–14 billion and widen the current account deficit (CAD) by 0.3 per cent of GDP, rating agency ICRA said in a report. The agency said that following the June 13 conflict escalation between Israel and Iran, crude prices rose sharply from $64–65 per barrel to $74–75 per barrel, raising concerns for crude- and gas-importing countries like India. India sources 45–50 per cent of its crude oil and nearly 54 per cent of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) from West Asia via the Strait of Hormuz (SoH). ICRA said that geopolitical tensions in the region have increased the risk to global energy trade, with any disruption at SoH potentially impacting about 20 per cent of global oil and 25 per cent of global LNG supplies. The agency has projected Brent crude oil prices to average $70–80 per barrel in FY26, with net oil imports expected at around $120 billion, compared with $123.4 billion in FY25. ICRA estimates the CAD to widen to $50–52 billion or 1.2–1.3 per cent of GDP in FY26, from 0.9 per cent in FY25. Marketing margins of oil marketing companies (OMCs) for petrol and diesel are likely to moderate to Rs 6–8 per litre in FY26 due to higher crude prices. Under-recoveries on subsidised liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) may increase to Rs 160 billion. While upstream companies may not see an immediate impact on their earnings at current crude prices, a prolonged surge could affect private investment and macroeconomic stability. ICRA also noted that natural gas prices are likely to rise in the upcoming reset in July 2025. The agency expects the Administered Pricing Mechanism (APM) gas price to revert to USD 6.75 per mmBtu from USD 6.5 per mmBtu. New well gas (NWG) prices are also estimated to increase by 10 per cent. India imports over 20 per cent of its global LNG from Qatar and UAE, with 85 per cent of their LNG exports passing through the SoH. Any extended disruption to shipping lanes could impact LNG supply and pricing in the domestic market. Gas-based power plants, currently operating at plant load factors of less than 20 per cent, are unlikely to see major changes unless domestic gas availability improves. Fertiliser companies may witness higher input costs and elevated subsidy needs, particularly for urea and ammonia. The report said that city gas distribution (CGD) companies and industrial consumers may also face higher spot LNG costs and shipping rates. ICRA further estimates that a 10 per cent increase in crude oil prices could lead to an 80–100 basis points increase in wholesale price index (WPI) inflation and a 20–30 basis points increase in consumer price index (CPI) inflation, depending on how much of the increase is passed on to end-users. India's GDP growth forecast of 6.2 per cent for FY26 could also be revised downward if crude oil prices remain elevated. The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) April 2024 Monetary Policy Report estimated that a 10 per cent rise in crude oil prices over a baseline of USD 70 per barrel could reduce GDP growth by 15 basis points. ICRA said any extended disruption or closure of the SoH could impact India's LNG import availability and cost, increase domestic gas prices, and alter energy sector trade flows.
Time of India
13 hours ago
- Business
- Time of India
Crude oil price rise to increase import bill by $13–14 bn, widen CAD by 0.3% of GDP: ICRA
New Delhi: A $10 per barrel increase in average crude oil prices could raise India's net oil imports by $13–14 billion and widen the current account deficit (CAD) by 0.3 per cent of GDP, rating agency ICRA said in a report. The agency said that following the June 13 conflict escalation between Israel and Iran, crude prices rose sharply from $64–65 per barrel to $74–75 per barrel, raising concerns for crude- and gas-importing countries like India. India sources 45–50 per cent of its crude oil and nearly 54 per cent of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) from West Asia via the Strait of Hormuz (SoH). ICRA said that geopolitical tensions in the region have increased the risk to global energy trade, with any disruption at SoH potentially impacting about 20 per cent of global oil and 25 per cent of global LNG supplies. The agency has projected Brent crude oil prices to average $70–80 per barrel in FY26, with net oil imports expected at around $120 billion, compared with $123.4 billion in FY25. ICRA estimates the CAD to widen to $50–52 billion or 1.2–1.3 per cent of GDP in FY26, from 0.9 per cent in FY25. Marketing margins of oil marketing companies (OMCs) for petrol and diesel are likely to moderate to Rs 6–8 per litre in FY26 due to higher crude prices. Under-recoveries on subsidised liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) may increase to Rs 160 billion. While upstream companies may not see an immediate impact on their earnings at current crude prices, a prolonged surge could affect private investment and macroeconomic stability. ICRA also noted that natural gas prices are likely to rise in the upcoming reset in July 2025. The agency expects the Administered Pricing Mechanism (APM) gas price to revert to USD 6.75 per mmBtu from USD 6.5 per mmBtu. New well gas (NWG) prices are also estimated to increase by 10 per cent. India imports over 20 per cent of its global LNG from Qatar and UAE, with 85 per cent of their LNG exports passing through the SoH. Any extended disruption to shipping lanes could impact LNG supply and pricing in the domestic market. Gas-based power plants, currently operating at plant load factors of less than 20 per cent, are unlikely to see major changes unless domestic gas availability improves. Fertiliser companies may witness higher input costs and elevated subsidy needs, particularly for urea and ammonia. The report said that city gas distribution (CGD) companies and industrial consumers may also face higher spot LNG costs and shipping rates. ICRA further estimates that a 10 per cent increase in crude oil prices could lead to an 80–100 basis points increase in wholesale price index (WPI) inflation and a 20–30 basis points increase in consumer price index (CPI) inflation, depending on how much of the increase is passed on to end-users. India's GDP growth forecast of 6.2 per cent for FY26 could also be revised downward if crude oil prices remain elevated. The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) April 2024 Monetary Policy Report estimated that a 10 per cent rise in crude oil prices over a baseline of USD 70 per barrel could reduce GDP growth by 15 basis points. ICRA said any extended disruption or closure of the SoH could impact India's LNG import availability and cost, increase domestic gas prices, and alter energy sector trade flows.
India Gazette
a day ago
- Business
- India Gazette
Brent crude prices to remain at USD 70/bbl in FY26 despite Israel-Iran conflict: Report
New Delhi [India], June 19 (ANI): Despite recent volatility and rising conflicts between Israel and Iran, Brent crude oil prices are expected to average around USD 70 per barrel in FY26, according to a report by Emkay Research. The report stated that the oil markets remain fundamentally well supplied, with rising production levels from both OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ countries. It said 'we continue to assume Brent price at USD70/bbl for FY26. Fundamentally, oil markets are well supplied with rising production.' This steady supply is expected to help stabilise prices in the coming weeks, even though geopolitical risks may cause short-term volatility. The report noted that Israel's attack on Iranian nuclear sites and personnel had initially triggered a sharp 12-13 per cent jump in oil prices, with Brent reaching close to USD 80/bbl. Since then, prices have settled around USD 75/bbl, despite ongoing attacks from both sides. Iran has responded by hitting Israeli cities with missiles, and Israel has intensified its strikes on Iran. Signals from the US administration regarding a ceasefire remain unclear. According to the report, unless there is lasting damage to oil and gas infrastructure, similar to earlier patterns seen during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, oil prices are likely to stabilise. A ceasefire could even bring Brent prices down below USD 70/bbl. The report also highlighted that Iran has partially shut its South Pars gas field following Israeli attacks. A major fuel depot and a gas refinery were hit, but the impact seems limited to domestic markets. Israel has suspended operations in two of its gas fields that export to Egypt and Jordan. As a result, spot LNG prices have increased to around USD 13.5/mmbtu, compared to USD 12/mmbtu before the conflict. The report further noted that oil markets in 2025 have remained well supplied with rising inventories. Although near-term volatility may continue, the average Brent crude price for the year is still expected to be around USD 70/bbl. At this price level, both upstream oil players and oil marketing companies (OMCs) are in a safe zone. However, the report believed OMCs offer a more attractive valuation and better risk-reward profile. The report also flagged concerns over the gas market, as the early onset of monsoons has impacted demand, making the gas outlook uncertain. (ANI)
Time of India
a day ago
- Business
- Time of India
‘Fundamentally well supplied..': Brent crude prices expected to average $70 in FY26 despite Israel-Iran conflict, says report
Brent crude oil prices are projected to average around $70 per barrel in FY26 despite geopolitical turbulence in the Middle East, according to a report by Emkay Research. The agency said oil markets remain 'fundamentally well supplied,' citing rising output from both OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ producers as key factors stabilising prices. Tired of too many ads? go ad free now 'We continue to assume Brent price at USD70/bbl for FY26. Fundamentally, oil markets are well supplied with rising production,' the report said. This outlook comes despite a recent spike in prices caused by Israel's attack on Iranian nuclear infrastructure, which triggered a sharp 12–13 per cent surge in Brent to nearly $80 per barrel. Prices have since moderated to around $75 per barrel, even as tensions remain high. Iran retaliated with missile attacks on Israeli cities, while Israel has ramped up its operations. Yet, according to Emkay, unless key energy infrastructure suffers sustained damage, as witnessed during the Russia-Ukraine war, markets are likely to remain stable. As per the news agency ANI, the report further noted that a ceasefire could potentially drive Brent prices even lower, possibly below the $70 threshold. 'The market is well buffered by existing inventory levels,' Emkay noted, adding that a steady supply outlook would help limit long-term inflationary pressure. The report also flagged limited but notable disruptions. Iran has partially shut its South Pars gas field following Israeli airstrikes. While domestic supplies have been impacted, the wider global market response has been restrained. In contrast, Israel suspended operations at two of its gas fields supplying Egypt and Jordan. Tired of too many ads? go ad free now Spot LNG prices have climbed to $13.5/mmbtu, up from $12 before the conflict began. As per news agency PTI, while Iran exports up to 2 million barrels per day, about 2 per cent of global supply, its long-standing sanctions mean much of that oil is already being sold at a discount to buyers like China. Additionally, OPEC's spare capacity remains unusually high, with over 4 million barrels per day in reserve, primarily from Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The IEA also maintains over 1.2 billion barrels in strategic reserves across OECD nations. Despite the Middle East tensions, demand remains tepid. China's industrial slowdown and its reduced refinery output in May, down 1.8 per cent year-on-year, have softened consumption. The IEA also predicts global supply in 2025 will surpass demand by nearly 1.8 million barrels per day, leaving room for further price cushioning. On the corporate front, Emkay believes that while both upstream producers and oil marketing companies (OMCs) remain within a 'safe zone' at current price levels, OMCs offer more attractive valuations and better risk-reward potential. However, the gas market could face pressure. The early onset of monsoons in South Asia has already reduced demand, and Emkay warns of continued volatility in the sector. Globally, the risks of escalation remain real. If Iran decides to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20 million barrels of oil transit daily, global prices could surge. While alternate pipelines through Saudi Arabia and the UAE exist, insurance and freight costs have already jumped nearly 60 per cent since hostilities began.
