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Time of India
16 hours ago
- Politics
- Time of India
Iran-Israel conflict: Donald Trump's caution on joining Israel airstrikes rooted in fears of creating 'another Libya'
President Donald Trump's recent hesitation to authorise military strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities is rooted in a deep-seated concern: the risk of plunging Iran into chaos reminiscent of Libya's collapse after the 2011 NATO intervention. As per a New York Post report citing multiple administration insiders, Trump has repeatedly cited the North African nation's descent into anarchy as a cautionary tale, shaping his approach to the escalating crisis with Iran. The Libya precedent: A decade of anarchy Libya's trajectory after the fall of Muammar Gaddafi stands as a stark warning in Trump's mind, as per the report. In 2011, following a NATO-led bombing campaign—supported by the United States—the long-standing dictator was overthrown. Rather than ushering in stability, Gaddafi's ouster triggered a prolonged period of civil war, political fragmentation, and violence. The country has since splintered into rival governments and militias, with no unified authority and ongoing conflict between factions based in Tripoli and the east. Trump's frequent references to Libya are twofold, sources said: first, the chaos that ensued after Gaddafi's removal; second, the way the intervention complicated future negotiations with other adversarial states, such as North Korea and Iran. "He doesn't want it to turn into Libya," one insider said, underscoring Trump's reluctance to repeat what he sees as a costly and destabilising precedent. A two-week breather In the wake of Israel's recent preemptive airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites, Trump has opted to delay any US involvement for up to two weeks. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed the president's wait-and-see approach, citing the "substantial chance of negotiations" with Iran that may or may not materialize in the near future. Iran's foreign minister is expected to meet with European counterparts in Geneva, while Trump's special envoy continues backchannel communications. The administration's posture is one of cautious patience, with Trump reportedly weighing input from advisors, international leaders, and the American public. Limited strikes, not regime change As per the New York Post report, sources close to the administration indicate that Trump's preferred military option, if any, would be tightly focused: limited airstrikes targeting Iran's nuclear facilities at Fordow and Natanz using 30,000-pound "bunker buster" bombs —munitions that Israel's air force cannot deliver. The goal would be to neutralise Iran's nuclear capabilities without toppling Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei or triggering a broader conflict. 'Libya was a much more extended kind of bombing commitment, and it ended up being regime change,' one source noted, contrasting it with Trump's current thinking. 'If the regime falls [in Iran], then it's not on Trump, because that's not the goal of his very limited strike'. The president's reluctance to pursue regime change is also informed by the fear that a successor to Khamenei could be even more dangerous, and by a desire not to get entangled in the question of who governs Iran—a stance that resonates with his political base. Trump's caution is further shaped by the broader regional context. The Middle East is littered with examples—Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Yemen—where US interventions have led to protracted instability and civil war.
France 24
a day ago
- Politics
- France 24
If Iran's Khamenei falls, what would replace him?
By striking targets other than nuclear or ballistic facilities, such as Iran's IRIB broadcaster, expectations have grown that Israel has goals beyond degrading Iranian atomic and missile capabilities and eyes removing supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. But while President Donald Trump has warned "we know" where Khamenei "is hiding", what would follow his removal after over three-and-a-half decades in power is shrouded in uncertainty and risk. European leaders are haunted by the aftermath of the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the NATO-led intervention in Libya in 2011. They resulted in the removal of dictators Saddam Hussein and Moamer Kadhafi but also in years of bloody mayhem in both countries. "The biggest mistake today is to seek regime change in Iran through military means because that would lead to chaos," French President Emmanuel Macron said at the end of the G7 summit in Canada. "Does anyone think that what was done in Iraq in 2003... or what was done in Libya the previous decade was a good idea? No!" Macron said. Analysts say ousting Khamenei and his fellow clerical leaders risks creating a vacuum that could be filled by hardline elements in the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) ideological force or the Iranian military. "Israel's strikes seem more focused on regime change than non-proliferation," said Nicole Grajewski, fellow at the Carnegie Endowment. "Of course Israel is targeting ballistic missile and military related facilities but they are also targeting leadership and symbols of the regime like the IRIB," she told AFP. "If the regime were to fall, the hope would be for a liberal and democratic government. "However, there is a strong likelihood that other powerful entities like the IRGC could emerge as the replacement," she said. 'No organised alternative' Among the highest-profile opposition figures is the US-based Reza Pahlavi, the son of ousted shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. He has declared that the Islamic republic is "on the verge of collapse", accusing Khamenei of "hiding underground" like a "frightened rat". Pahlavi has long called for the restoration of the warm relationship that existed between his late father and Israel, to reverse the Islamic republic's refusal to recognise the existence of Israel. Monarchists would like such a rapprochement to be termed the "Cyrus Accords" after the ancient Persian king credited with freeing the Jews from Babylon. But Pahlavi is far from enjoying universal support inside Iran or among exiles. The nationalism of supporters and his ties with Israel are divisive, especially after he refused to condemn the Israeli air strikes on Iran. Another major organised group is the People's Mujahedin (MEK), whose leader Maryam Rajavi told the European Parliament on Wednesday: "The people of Iran want the overthrow of this regime." But the MEK is despised by other opposition factions and regarded with suspicion by some Iranians for its support of Saddam Hussein in the Iran-Iraq war. "Part of the challenge in thinking about alternatives to the Islamic Republic in case it collapses is that there is no organised, democratic alternative," said Thomas Juneau, professor at the University of Ottawa. He said that while Reza Pahlavi is the opposition leader "who has by far the most name recognition both in and out of Iran", his supporters "tend to exaggerate his support inside the country". "The only alternative -- and this is among the worrying scenarios -- is a coup d'etat by the Revolutionary Guards or changing from a theocracy to a military dictatorship." 'Unpredictable scenario' Analysts also warn that a potential -- and often overlooked -- factor for future instability could be Iran's complex ethnic make-up. Large Kurdish, Arab, Baluch and Turkic minorities co-exist alongside the Persian population. "There will also be an effort to capitalise on ethnic divisions by hostile countries," said Grajewski. Analysts at the US-based think tank Soufan Center said that with the survival of the Iranian regime now viewed as a "strategic failure", the prospect of an "Iraq 2.0" is looming. "The post-regime-change scenario remains unpredictable and could trigger regional destabilisation on a scale greater than Iraq, with global ramifications," they said.
Int'l Business Times
a day ago
- Politics
- Int'l Business Times
If Iran's Khamenei Falls, What Would Replace Him?
Israel increasingly appears eager to oust the clerical leadership that has ruled Iran since the 1979 Islamic revolution but is taking a gamble given the Iranian opposition is divided and there is no guarantee new rulers would be any less hardline, analysts say. By striking targets other than nuclear or ballistic facilities, such as Iran's IRIB broadcaster, expectations have grown that Israel has goals beyond degrading Iranian atomic and missile capabilities and eyes removing supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. But while President Donald Trump has warned "we know" where Khamenei "is hiding", what would follow his removal after over three-and-a-half decades in power is shrouded in uncertainty and risk. European leaders are haunted by the aftermath of the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the NATO-led intervention in Libya in 2011. They resulted in the removal of dictators Saddam Hussein and Moamer Kadhafi but also in years of bloody mayhem in both countries. "The biggest mistake today is to seek regime change in Iran through military means because that would lead to chaos," French President Emmanuel Macron said at the end of the G7 summit in Canada. "Does anyone think that what was done in Iraq in 2003... or what was done in Libya the previous decade was a good idea? No!" Macron said. Analysts say ousting Khamenei and his fellow clerical leaders risks creating a vacuum that could be filled by hardline elements in the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) ideological force or the Iranian military. "Israel's strikes seem more focused on regime change than non-proliferation," said Nicole Grajewski, fellow at the Carnegie Endowment. "Of course Israel is targeting ballistic missile and military related facilities but they are also targeting leadership and symbols of the regime like the IRIB," she told AFP. "If the regime were to fall, the hope would be for a liberal and democratic government. "However, there is a strong likelihood that other powerful entities like the IRGC could emerge as the replacement," she said. Among the highest-profile opposition figures is the US-based Reza Pahlavi, the son of ousted shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. He has declared that the Islamic republic is "on the verge of collapse", accusing Khamenei of "hiding underground" like a "frightened rat". Pahlavi has long called for the restoration of the warm relationship that existed between his late father and Israel, to reverse the Islamic republic's refusal to recognise the existence of Israel. Monarchists would like such a rapprochement to be termed the "Cyrus Accords" after the ancient Persian king credited with freeing the Jews from Babylon. But Pahlavi is far from enjoying universal support inside Iran or among exiles. The nationalism of supporters and his ties with Israel are divisive, especially after he refused to condemn the Israeli air strikes on Iran. Another major organised group is the People's Mujahedin (MEK), whose leader Maryam Rajavi told the European Parliament on Wednesday: "The people of Iran want the overthrow of this regime." But the MEK is despised by other opposition factions and regarded with suspicion by some Iranians for its support of Saddam Hussein in the Iran-Iraq war. "Part of the challenge in thinking about alternatives to the Islamic Republic in case it collapses is that there is no organised, democratic alternative," said Thomas Juneau, professor at the University of Ottawa. He said that while Reza Pahlavi is the opposition leader "who has by far the most name recognition both in and out of Iran", his supporters "tend to exaggerate his support inside the country". "The only alternative -- and this is among the worrying scenarios -- is a coup d'etat by the Revolutionary Guards or changing from a theocracy to a military dictatorship." Analysts also warn that a potential -- and often overlooked -- factor for future instability could be Iran's complex ethnic make-up. Large Kurdish, Arab, Baluch and Turkic minorities co-exist alongside the Persian population. "There will also be an effort to capitalise on ethnic divisions by hostile countries," said Grajewski. Analysts at the US-based think tank Soufan Center said that with the survival of the Iranian regime now viewed as a "strategic failure", the prospect of an "Iraq 2.0" is looming. "The post-regime-change scenario remains unpredictable and could trigger regional destabilisation on a scale greater than Iraq, with global ramifications," they said. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been Iran's supreme leader since 1989 AFP It remains unclear what would replace the system led by Khamenei AFP Reza Pahlavi is among the most prominent opposition figures AFP The Islamic revolution ousted the father of Reza Pahlavi (L) AFP
Budapest Times
2 days ago
- Business
- Budapest Times
President Sulyok holds talks with Kosovan counterpart
Kosovo's security and stability are of key importance to Hungary, given the significance of the Western Balkans region. President Tamás Sulyok held talks with Vjosa Osmani-Sadriu, the president of the Republic of Kosovo, at Sándor Palace in Budapest on Tuesday. At their talks, President Sulyok and Osmani-Sadriu were in agreement that Hungarian-Kosovan relations were based on mutual respect and trust, and the two countries aimed to further deepen their ties, the Sandor Palace said in a statement. Kosovo's security and stability are of key importance to Hungary, given the significance of the Western Balkans region. They noted that Hungary will continue contributing to the NATO-led KFOR peacekeeping mission aimed at maintaining peace and stability in the region. Progress has also been made in economic cooperation, with exports, imports and bilateral trade turnover reaching record highs in 2024, the statement added. 'Boosting economic ties remains a key goal, and we are jointly pushing for the launch of a direct flight between the two countries as soon as possible,' they said. Cooperation in education also serves to deepen bilateral ties, they said, noting that Hungary offers scholarships to 75 Kosovan university students each year as part of the Stipendium Hungaricum scheme. Hungary remains a staunch supporter of Kosovo's European integration and will aim to continue supporting the deepening of ties between Kosovo and the European Union at every existing forum, the statement said.
Yahoo
21-05-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Germany plans to extend Bundeswehr mandate for three missions abroad
Germany's new government plans to extend the armed forces' involvement in international missions in Kosovo, Bosnia-Herzegovina and off Lebanon, as agreed in a Cabinet meeting on Wednesday. The Cabinet of Chancellor Friedrich Merz approved the extension of mandates for the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) in the eastern Mediterranean as well as for the NATO-led Kosovo Force (KFOR) and the EU mission EUFOR Althea in the Balkans. "By continuing its participation in these missions, the German government is emphasizing its ongoing commitment to peace and stability," said government spokesman Stefan Kornelius. Before the extensions can take effect, the Bundestag, Germany's lower house of parliament, has to approve them. Soldiers of the Bundeswehr, as the German armed forces are called, have been employed as part of KFOR for 26 years, making it the longest foreign deployment. Despite the Kosovo War having ended in 1999, the international troops continue to be necessary to stabilize the security situation, said government spokesman Kornelius. Germany will continue to deploy a maximum of 400 troops to Kosovo, he said. Meanwhile, up to 50 soldiers will continue to be deployed as part of EUFOR Althea, an EU-led mission intended to ensure compliance with the Dayton Peace Agreement, which ended the Bosnian war in 1995. Up to 300 German soldiers will continue to support UNIFIL, which has been monitoring the border area between Israel and Lebanon since 1978. A Bundeswehr frigate has been deployed to the Mediterranean to prevent the smuggling of weapons to Lebanon's pro-Iranian Hezbollah militia.
