Latest news with #MikeTrout
New York Times
10 hours ago
- Sport
- New York Times
Five bats fantasy baseball managers can actually drop, based on projections
If you stick closely to projections (as I do) and play a lot of keeper leagues (as I do), you take the long view on hitters most of the time. They'll come back around and play to the talent levels they've shown before, of course, why wouldn't they? Projections look at the sum of a player and put together the good times and the bad times and produce the most likely outcomes, and usually, those are about as rosterable as they were when you acquired the player. Advertisement But sometimes even the projections move enough on a player that we should recalibrate our feelings. If you've lost the projection systems, you've lost your last defender. To see which players have seen their projections move the most, I took preseason OOPSY projections from Jordan Rosenblum and compared them to his rest-of-season projections. Here are the 15 players who have seen their projections move downward the most compared to preseason expectations. I've listed them along with their Yahoo roster rates. There are already some obvious flaws with this approach. There are the hitters who might have taken a haircut but are still projected among the best hitters in the game, like Juan Soto, Mike Trout, and Gunnar Henderson. Nobody is advocating dropping these players. League average OPS is .712, and they're all 100-plus points clear of that, even with their reduced projections. There are also hitters here who will provide fantasy value with their legs, as Matt McLain, Michael Harris II, and, to a lesser extent, Kristian Campbell and Spencer Steer are non-zeroes on the basepaths. And then there are players who nobody had rostered anyway, like Joey Ortiz. Ahem. So let's try this another way. Which hitters have seen their OPS projections drop at least 10 points, but are sorted by the worst OPS projections (minimum 250 projected plate appearances)? Surely these players are not great, and maybe also on the precipice of losing their jobs? Nobody on this list was projected to have a league average OPS, and then they played so poorly that they saw their projections drop further. Speed once again is a complicating factor, but it's still instructive to note that while Parker Meadows has the defensive chops to keep his job despite poor OPS projections, the Miami Marlins just moved Xavier Edwards to second base. He's a sell in keeper formats if he has any value, because legs can only take a player so far. The next problem is that once you scan over to the roster levels, you'll see that nobody was really all-in on these players anyway, with a notable exception or two. Advertisement We still have the stolen base problem. Let's try one last way. Here are the players who have lost the most projected fantasy value since the preseason, using OOPSY in the FanGraphs auction calculator with 15-team Roto 5×5 settings. I've removed players who are currently in the minors or suffering from long-term injury, or who were projected for negative value to begin the season, in order to make this list more useful. This once again has some less-than-useful information. Nobody is still holding on to Orlando Arcia at this point since he lost his starting job and is a utility player, and ownership levels in a lot of the other categories are pretty low. Nobody is dropping Yordan Alvarez despite the change in projected outcomes. But there are also some interesting names on here for those who were holding out hope for players like Brandon Marsh and Lane Thomas — if they are basically underwater in 15-teamers with five outfielders, by sober projections, then there's no reason to keep holding them for the future in most leagues. Let's highlight five bats who have shown up on a lot of these lists but aren't slam-dunk drops at first glance. Recently, Adames has performed a little better, and that coincides with his rolling swing speed finally poking about the 75th percentile for the first time this season. But it's a long swing, and if you judge him instead by swing acceleration (which considers contact point), he just nudged above the 10th percentile. The thing is, we've seen this from Adames before, so it's not too surprising. Many of his numbers seem right in line with what he did in 2023, when he had a .217 average and hit 24 homers (except worse in the power department, really). That year, he was the 20th-best shortstop when all was said and done. Even if he picks it up and ends up near those numbers, the stolen bases aren't going to be there like last year, and maybe there's someone out there who can be better than 20th for you at the position? He's still a $3 player in 12-team leagues with a middle infield slot, according to OOPSY rest-of-season projections, but that's droppable territory if you see something better out there. Of the players highlighted here, McLain is the toughest drop for a couple of reasons, though. First, second base is a really tough position this year. It's only produced six players who would be above-replacement players without the positional adjustment (shortstop has 16), and the lesser-rostered, better-projected second basemen ahead of McLain (Jonathan India, Luis Garcia Jr.) aren't slam-dunk decisions. Second, he's stealing bases and likely to finish the season with at least a shot at a 20-20 season. But the batting average isn't going to be great, and the power, which wasn't supported fully by his batted-ball stats, has not returned (and wasn't helped by a loss of bat speed). If the steals won't mean that much to you, McLain could be a drop in shallower leagues. Advertisement Everything has gone badly for Santander in Toronto. The strikeout rate went up (career-worst), the fly-ball rate went down, the hard-hit rate went down (five-year low), as did his barrel rate (career-worst) and max exit velocity (career-worst). His bat has lost over a mile per hour of bat speed (to the point that it's almost average from the left side), and his swing has gotten flatter in terms of tilt, so he's just pulling balls on the ground now. Jorge Soler, who is rostered in a third of the leagues as Santander, is projected to be better. In the deepest leagues, you just have to hold and hope, but projections have him under $3 going forward in 15-team leagues with players like Alec Burleson and the returning Luke Raley ranked higher. You probably have a better option on your wire versus waiting for him to get healthy. Steer's lack of bat speed this year can indeed be most likely attributed to his spring injury to the shoulder, but it's also true that there's no evidence in his rolling swing speed graphs that the joint is feeling any better in recent days. Keeper league players have a harder decision — Steer could use a full healthy offseason, most likely, and any return of bat speed could make him a viable 20-10 guy again — but in leagues playing just for 2025, the four stolen bases aren't enough to hang around for. Christian Encarnacion-Strand projects better and is out there in nearly three-quarters of Yahoo leagues, and if you need some stolen bases, Jake Cronenworth is rostered in fewer leagues and projects better. There are better options than Steer right now in all but the deepest leagues. In 12-team leagues with a middle infielder slot, OOPSY projects Story to be below replacement, which might be surprising at first. He has double-digit homers and steals and has had his moments this year. But the real tragedy of leaving Coors Field behind is that his batting average is no longer buoyed by altitude. Now he strikes out 30 percent of the time and has the batting average to match. It's a bit like McLain — how much batting average do you want to pay for your 20/20 season — but at a position where there are more options. Even if you want power and speed, Masyn Winn and Ezequiel Tovar might be able to help you without hurting in batting average as much. Looking at roster rates, though, Story has probably already been dropped in most leagues where he should have been, and is a tentative hold in the deepest leagues. (Photo of Willy Adames: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)
Al Arabiya
2 days ago
- Sport
- Al Arabiya
Chisholm's HR Ends Yanks' 30-Inning Scoreless Skid; Angels Beat New York on a Late Volpe Error
Jazz Chisholm Jr. homered in the second inning to end New York's 30-inning scoreless streak, but an error in the eighth inning gave Los Angeles a tiebreaking run and the Angels beat the Yankees 3–2 Wednesday night for their sixth straight loss. Mike Trout and Taylor Ward opened the eighth by drawing walks off Fernando Cruz (1–3) and Luis Rengifo walked on four pitches to load the bases. Jo Adell hit a 105.9-mph grounder to New York shortstop Anthony Volpe, who bobbled the ball and threw wide of second, allowing Trout to score. The Yankees lost for the eighth time in 18 games, and their losing streak is the longest since they lost nine straight from August 12–23, 2023. For all the latest headlines, follow our Google News channel online or via the app. Chisholm ended New York's longest run-scoring drought since a 33-inning skid September 22–25, 2016, when his drive down the right field line stayed inside the foul pole and tied the game at 1. Cody Bellinger homered to give the Yankees a 2–1 lead in the fourth before the Angels' Jo Adell hit a tying homer on the first pitch of the fifth off Ryan Yarbrough. Bellinger made the final out of the eighth by fouling out with two on. Aaron Judge went 0 for 4 with two strikeouts as his average dipped to .366. Nolan Schanuel homered three pitches into the game for the Angels, who won a fifth straight game at Yankee Stadium–the old or new version–for the first time in team history. Kochanowicz allowed two runs and two hits in 5 2/3 innings. The right-hander finished with a career-high eight strikeouts and walked three. Kenley Jansen struck out Volpe to secure his 15th save. Giancarlo Stanton batted for Ben Rice in the seventh and flew out to left field against Hector Neris (3-1). In the sixth, Bellinger hit an infield single, but Trent Grisham was called out at second when his leg touched the ball. Paul Goldschmidt lined out on the next pitch. Stanton is 5 for 47 in his career as a pinch hitter.
CBS News
2 days ago
- Sport
- CBS News
Anthony Volpe's error, more listless at-bats push Yankees to 6th straight loss
Jazz Chisholm Jr. homered in the second inning to end New York's 30-inning scoreless streak, but an error in the eighth inning gave Los Angeles a tiebreaking run, and the Angels beat the Yankees 3-2 Wednesday night, handing New York its sixth straight loss. Mike Trout and Taylor Ward opened the eighth by drawing walks off Fernando Cruz (1-3), and Luis Rengifo walked on four pitches to load the bases. Jo Adell hit a 105.9-mph grounder to New York shortstop Anthony Volpe, who bobbled the ball and threw wide of second, allowing Trout to score. The Yankees lost for the eighth time in 18 games, and their losing streak is the longest since they lost nine straight from Aug. 12-23, 2023. Chisholm ended New York's longest run-scoring drought since a 33-inning skid Sept. 22-25, 2016, when his drive down the right field line stayed inside the foul pole and tied the game at 1. Cody Bellinger homered to give the Yankees a 2-1 lead in the fourth before the Angels' Jo Adell hit a tying homer on the first pitch of the fifth off Ryan Yarbrough. Bellinger made the final out of the eighth by fouling out with two on. Aaron Judge went 0 for 4 with two strikeouts as his average dipped to .366. Nolan Schanuel homered three pitches into the game for the Angels, who won a fifth straight game at Yankee Stadium -- the old or new version -- for the first time in team history. Jack Kochanowicz allowed two runs and two hits in 5 2/3 innings. The right-hander finished with a career-high eight strikeouts and walked three. Kenley Jansen struck out Volpe to secure his 15th save. KEY MOMENTS Giancarlo Stanton batted for Ben Rice in the seventh and flew out to left field against Hector Neris (3-1). In the sixth, Bellinger hit an infield single, but Trent Grisham was called out at second when his leg touched the ball. Paul Goldschmidt lined out on the next pitch. KEY STAT Stanton is 5 for 47 in his career as a pinch hitter. UP NEXT New York LHP Carlos Rodón (8-5, 3.01 ERA) opposes Los Angeles LHP Tyler Anderson (2-4, 3.44) on Thursday.
Associated Press
2 days ago
- Sport
- Associated Press
Chisholm's HR ends Yanks' 30-inning scoreless skid; Angels beat New York on a late Volpe error
NEW YORK (AP) — Jazz Chisholm Jr. homered in the second inning to end New York's 30-inning scoreless streak, but an error in the eighth inning gave Los Angeles a tiebreaking run, and the Angels beat the Yankees 3-2 Wednesday night for their sixth straight loss. Mike Trout and Taylor Ward opened the eighth by drawing walks off Fernando Cruz (1-3), and Luis Rengifo walked on four pitches to load the bases. Jo Adell hit a 105.9-mph grounder to New York shortstop Anthony Volpe, who bobbled the ball and threw wide of second, allowing Trout to score. The Yankees lost for the eighth time in 18 games, and their losing streak is the longest since they lost nine straight from Aug. 12-23, 2023. Chisholm ended New York's longest run-scoring drought since a 33-inning skid Sept. 22-25, 2016, when his drive down the right field line stayed inside the foul pole and tied the game at 1 Cody Bellinger homered to give the Yankees a 2-1 lead in the fourth before the Angels' Jo Adell hit a tying homer on the first pitch of the fifth off Ryan Yarbrough. Bellinger made the final out of the eighth by fouling out with two on. Aaron Judge went 0 for 4 with two strikeouts as his average dipped to .366. Nolan Schanuel homered three pitches into the game for the Angels, who won a fifth straight game at Yankee Stadium — the old or new version — for the first time in team history. Kochanowicz allowed two runs and two hits in 5 2/3 innings. The right-hander finished with a career-high eight strikeouts and walked three. Kenley Jansen struck out Volpe to secure his 15th save. Key moments Giancarlo Stanton batted for Ben Rice in the seventh and flew out to left field against Hector Neris (3-1). In the sixth, Bellinger hit an infield single, but Trent Grisham was called out at second when his leg touched the ball. Paul Goldschmidt lined out on the next pitch. Key stat Stanton is 5 for 47 in his career as a pinch hitter. Up next New York LHP Carlos Rodón (8-5, 3.01 ERA) opposes Los Angeles LHP Tyler Anderson (2-4, 3.44) on Thursday. ___ More AP baseball:
Newsweek
2 days ago
- Sport
- Newsweek
Mike Trout to Red Sox? MLB Writer Floats 'Dream' Blockbuster Trade Idea
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. The Boston Red Sox traded Rafael Devers to the San Francisco Giants earlier this week. The move seemingly indicated the team's intention to sell at the trade deadline, but Craig Breslow said the team is not giving up on the season, during a press conference posted on the team's YouTube channel after the Devers trade. Trading Devers after the team had clawed itself back into the postseason picture was certainly a shock. However, the team managed to trade away the remainder of Devers' $313 million deal, saving more than $270 million over the next eight-plus years. The move gives the Red Sox some freedom to explore more expensive options at the trade deadline and free agency. Bleacher Report's Zachary D. Rymer proposed a "dream" trade idea that would bring Mike Trout to the Red Sox from the Los Angeles Angels. DENVER, CO - JUNE 24: Mike Trout #27 of the Los Angeles Angels watches the flight of a third inning solo homerun in a game against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field on June 24,... DENVER, CO - JUNE 24: Mike Trout #27 of the Los Angeles Angels watches the flight of a third inning solo homerun in a game against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field on June 24, 2023 in Denver, Colorado. More"They badly need right-handed thump, and Trout could provide it by slotting into Devers' old haunt at DH, with only occasional duty in Boston's youth-infused outfield," wrote Rymer. "Of course, Trout would have to have faith that the Red Sox can actually contend after mostly not doing so since 2018. But if his choice is between the Red Sox and the Angels, the former is by far the better bet to make sure he doesn't remain stuck on three career playoff games." Trout is a future Hall of Famer, three-time MVP Award winner, 11-time All-Star and nine-time Silver Slugger. However, he has not done much winning in his career. The Red Sox are still in position to make a postseason push, and adding one of the best players of all time would help the cause. Trout has five-plus years left on his 12-year, $426 million deal. The superstar has a full no-trade clause and has remained loyal to the Angels after years of the team failing to build a true contender. The Angels managed to squander multiple seasons with Shohei Ohtani and Trout on the team. Could he finally be open to a change of scenery? The Red Sox are a young team that could use Trout. Trout has dealt with injuries over the last few seasons and has already missed time this year. However, he is slashing .317/.408/.433 since his return from the injured list. More MLB: Former MLB Executive Encourages Mariners To Trade For Diamondbacks Slugger
