Latest news with #MaxLayton
CTV News
2 days ago
- Business
- CTV News
Price of gold could drop to US$2,500: commodities expert
Sorry, we're having trouble with this video. Please try again later. [5006/404] Gold's rally may be over, according to a commodities expert who predicts prices to drop substantially late next year to well under US$3,000 an ounce. Max Layton, global commodities head at CITI Research, predicts gold will trade at about $2,500 to $2,700 in the second half of next year, down about $900 or so less than where it is today. 'Our call is very much a 2026 bearish gold call,' Layton told BNN Bloomberg in a Thursday interview. 'Near term, we have it averaging around $3,200 in the third quarter and $3,000 in the fourth quarter.' Gold reached $3,382.40 per ounce Thursday and is up by more than 70 per cent over the past two years. Layton said CITI had been bullish on gold for the last couple of years as investors flocked to the precious metal. He said people are buying gold to hedge against a downside risks to their household wealth over fears of slowing economic growth and global uncertainty. 'The move from $2,600 to $3,300 this year has been all about investors buying bars and coins, particularly bars because they're hedging against a downside in U.S. and global growth, as well as a downside in equities related to that downside in U.S. and global growth, which has come about because of the combination of still extremely high interest rates in the U.S. by historical standards, and the tariffs.' He however expects a drop in prices due to weakening investment demand, anticipated U.S. interest rate cuts and improved economic prospects. 'We're getting close to this One Big Beautiful Bill Act passing Congress,' said Layton. 'We think that is going to mark a shift in sentiment towards U.S. growth and basically a slight reduction, or even a moderate reduction, or even possibly by the end of next year, heading into the mid terms with lower interest rates as well.' The bill has a section citing 'remedies against unfair foreign taxes.' It is expected to hit Canadians and international investors with a higher tax on dividends they received from U.S.-based investments, placing more money in American coffers to evidentially lead to growth in the U.S.' This bill, the passing of it being net stimulatory for the U.S. economy, is going to reduce fears about growth and lead to a bit more positivity and a little less investment buying of gold,' said Layton. 'With that, you basically unwind the primary driver of the last $700 move in the old price higher from $2,600 to $3,300.' While CITI paints a bleak picture for gold prices, major financial institutions such as Goldman Sachs project prices to rise to $3,700 by late 2025 and $4,000 by mid-2006 thanks to robust central bank buying. Bank of America as well predicts prices to rise to $4,000 within 2026.
Yahoo
4 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Citi Calls Time on Gold's Rally on Slumping Demand, Fed Cuts
(Bloomberg) -- Gold is expected to sink back below $3,000 an ounce in the coming quarters as a record-setting run peters out, according to Citigroup Inc., calling time on one of the standout rallies in commodities. As Part of a $45 Billion Push, ICE Prepares for a Vast Expansion of Detention Space Security Concerns Hit Some of the World's 'Most Livable Cities' As American Architects Gather in Boston, Retrofits Are All the Rage 'Our work suggests that gold returns to about $2,500 to $2,700 an ounce by the second half of 2026,' analysts including Max Layton said in a report. The slump may be driven by weaker investment demand, improving global growth prospects, and rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, they said. Bullion has soared 30% this year, setting a record high in April, as US President Donald Trump's disruptive trade policies and the crisis in the Middle East spurred haven demand. The precious metal's ascent has also been underpinned by concerns about the US deficit and assets, as well as by consistent buying by central banks as they sought to diversify reserves. Declining investment demand for gold from the fourth quarter of 2025 may come from 'any modest improvement in global growth confidence' as a stimulatory US budget takes effect, and Trump's trade and other policies become less bearish, the Citi analysts said. Further, 'we see a lot of scope for the Fed to cut from restrictive policy to neutral,' they added. In the bank's base case — which carried a 60% probability — gold was expected to consolidate above $3,000 an ounce over the next quarter, then head lower. Its bull case — with 20% odds — flagged scope for a fresh record in the third quarter on concerns about tariffs, geopolitics and stagflation. The bear case — also at a 20% chance — saw a selloff, in part on speedy tariff resolutions. Spot gold last traded near $3,393 an ounce. Prices fluctuated on Tuesday, after Trump first called for an evacuation of Tehran amid the conflict between Israel and Iran, then departed from a Group of Seven summit early. In outlooks for other metals, Citi said it was very bullish on both aluminum and copper. The lightweight metal 'is highly leveraged to an uptick in global growth and sentiment,' the analysts said. (Updates to add other scenarios in fifth paragraph) Ken Griffin on Trump, Harvard and Why Novice Investors Won't Beat the Pros American Mid: Hampton Inn's Good-Enough Formula for World Domination How a Tiny Middleman Could Access Two-Factor Login Codes From Tech Giants The Spying Scandal Rocking the World of HR Software US Allies and Adversaries Are Dodging Trump's Tariff Threats ©2025 Bloomberg L.P.
Bloomberg
5 days ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
Citi Calls Time on Gold's Rally Due to Slumping Demand, Fed Cuts
Gold is expected to sink back below $3,000 an ounce in the coming quarters as a record-setting rally runs out of steam, according to Citigroup Inc., calling time on one of the standout rallies in commodities. 'Our work suggests that gold returns to about $2,500 to $2,700 an ounce by the second half of 2026,' analysts including Max Layton said in a report. The slump may be driven by weaker investment demand, improving global growth prospects, and rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, they said.
CNBC
5 days ago
- Business
- CNBC
Citi's Layton: Strait of Hormuz has the potential for large oil disruption from Iran-Israel conflict
Max Layton, Citi global head of commodities research, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the recent pullback in oil prices, the key factor to monitor and much more.
