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Business Recorder
4 days ago
- Business Recorder
The time of the hawks
We have entered 'the time of the hawks'an era where the traditional calculus of conflict has been rewritten by silicon and steel. The first casualty of the next war may not be truth, it may be the soldier himself. In command centers from Tampa to Tel Aviv, military operators sit before banks of glowing screens, their fingers moving across keyboards as they pilot death machines prowling the skies thousands of miles away. This is the revolution that arrived not with fanfare but with the quiet hum of rotors. Warfare has gone airborne, algorithmic, and increasingly autonomous. The psychology of warfare itself is being rewritten when combatants never see their enemies, never hear the screams, never smell the smoke. The transformation began quietly enough. When the first primitive drones took flight over Afghanistan two decades ago, they were little more than remote-controlled toys with cameras. Today, the American MQ-9 Reaper can loiter over a target for 27 hours straight. Its Hellfire missiles and laser-guided bombs awaiting orders from operators who might be sipping coffee in Nevada while surveying a battlefield in Somalia. The Turkish Bayraktar TB2 has become the AK-47 of drone warfare, cheap, effective, and proliferating rapidly across global conflict zones. From the deserts of Libya to the trenches of Ukraine, this $5 million unmanned predator has proven that air superiority no longer requires billion-dollar fighter jets or decades of pilot training. But hardware is only part of the story. The real revolution lies in the algorithms that increasingly guide these birds. Artificial intelligence now processes targeting data, identifies threats, and even suggests engagement protocols faster than any human commander could comprehend. The Pentagon's Project Maven uses machine learning to analyse drone footage, automatically flagging potential targets from hours of surveillance video. Chinese military researchers speak of 'intelligent swarms'coordinated fleets of drones that operate with minimal human oversight, sharing data instantaneously and adapting their tactics in real-time. This isn't science fiction, it is the current state of military technology, advancing at a pace that makes traditional defence planning obsolete within months rather than years. The implications stretch far beyond the battlefield. The RQ-4 Global Hawk, soaring at 60,000 feet for over 30 hours, can photograph an area the size of South Korea in a single flight, its sensors capable of reading license plates from the edge of space. This is surveillance capitalism weaponised, the same technologies that track your online shopping habits now determine the fate of nations. This technological arms race has created a new form of global stratification. Nations fall into distinct categories: the hawks, who dominate the skies with advanced drone fleets and AI-powered command systems; the hunters, who invest heavily in electronic warfare capabilities to jam, hijack, or destroy unmanned systems; and the hunted, who find themselves outmatched by adversaries they cannot see, let alone fight effectively. China's investment in military AI research now rivals America's, while smaller nations like Turkey and Israel have become drone-warfare exporters, selling their battlefield-tested technologies to the highest bidders. The economic dimensions are staggering. A single F-35 fighter jet costs over $100 million and requires a pilot trained over many years at enormous expense. That same budget could purchase twenty Bayraktar TB2 drones, each capable of operating continuously with minimal human oversight. For cash-strapped militaries, the mathematics is compelling, why maintain expensive human pilots when algorithms can fly faster, longer, and without the complications of food, sleep, or post-traumatic stress? Yet this technological revolution carries profound risks that policymakers are only beginning to understand. When warfare becomes increasingly automated, the threshold for conflict inevitably lowers. It's easier to launch a drone strike than to deploy troops, easier to escalate when your own forces face no immediate physical risk. The Cuban Missile Crisis lasted thirteen days partly because both Kennedy and Khrushchev understood that any miscalculation could result in nuclear annihilation. But what happens when an AI system misidentifies a school bus as a military transport, triggering an international incident before any human realizes what occurred? The emerging doctrine of 'algorithmic warfare' also raises uncomfortable questions about accountability and the laws of armed conflict. When an autonomous weapon system kills civilians, who bears responsibility, the programmer who wrote the code, the commander who deployed the system, or the politician who authorised its use? International humanitarian law struggles to address scenarios where machines make life-and-death decisions faster than humans can comprehend, let alone control. Perhaps most unsettling is how this transformation mirrors broader technological trends. The same artificial intelligence that powers military drones also drives autonomous vehicles, medical diagnostics, and financial trading systems. The line between civilian and military technology continues to blur as dual-use innovations migrate seamlessly between Silicon Valley startups and Pentagon research labs. Today's video game engine becomes tomorrow's military simulation, today's delivery drone becomes tomorrow's weapons platform. The time of the hawks represents more than a military revolution, it is a fundamental shift in how power is projected, conflicts are waged, and societies prepare for an uncertain future. Nations that fail to adapt find themselves not merely outgunned but operating in an entirely different paradigm of warfare. The choice facing governments worldwide is stark, invest in the technologies and training necessary to compete in this new arena, or accept a subordinate role in a world where digital hawks rule the skies. As military commanders, technology executives, and political leaders grapple with these changes, one thing remains clear, the age of drone warfare is not approaching, it has arrived. The question is no longer whether artificial intelligence will reshape conflict, but how quickly nations can adapt to a reality where wars are won and lost by those who best harness the marriage of silicon and steel. In this new era, power belongs not to those with the largest armies, but to those who command the most sophisticated swarms of digital predators circling overhead, waiting for orders that may never require human approval. The article does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Business Recorder or its owners
Yahoo
7 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Drone overload: Too many people want to sell drones to the US military
A lot of US defense companies are building similar small aerial drones, saturating the market. The Ukraine war and demand signals from the Pentagon have incited the competitive environment. But there are concerns the products are too alike and the military won't buy enough, industry insiders said. Drones are in high demand at the Petagon, but insiders say the market is already jammed with too many lookalike quadcopters and startups chasing the same investments and military dollars. "We're seeing a lot of companies in the space," one defense industry investor, who requested anonymity to speak freely on the topic, told Business Insider, noting that in many cases, there may not be significant differences in capability between the products that these companies are delivering. The relatively niche small uncrewed aerial vehicle market has seen a boom in competition in recent years, with many companies developing the actual uncrewed aircraft, as well as software programs and modular payloads. The Department of Defense has long used large drones like the MQ-9 Reaper built for reconnaissance and combat strike missions, but there is a growing recognition as a result of the Ukraine war and engagements in the Middle East that low-cost, attritable first-person-view (FPV) drones have a place in modern warfare. Heightened interest in these capabilities is, in turn, fueling the drone market and creating new research and development pathways even without programs of record. The yearslong war in Ukraine has driven significant advancements in aerial drones but also uncrewed ground and surface vehicles, sensors, electronic warfare, reconnaissance and intelligence systems, and more. "In the last five years, new technologies that are on display in Ukraine, they have a pretty big impact on warfare," Michael Brown, a partner with venture capital firm Shield Capital, told BI. Within the US market, a lot of new drones are in technology demonstration programs. DoD is effectively putting out information on the types of systems and capabilities it wants. Various industry partners are applying with their solutions. Eventually, these will evolve into programs of record, and the competition will thin down dramatically when awards are granted to specific companies. Melissa Johnson, US Special Operations Command's acquisition executive, said the acquisitions, technology, and logistics team was "transparent with industry when issuing solicitations to communicate the needs of Special Operations Forces." She said that this process involves looking at a variety of factors, including "performance, manufacturability, operational considerations, and affordability." As the market becomes oversaturated with drone makers producing similar products, companies are increasingly trying to distinguish themselves in capability, as well as adaptability to countermeasures, such as electronic warfare. Not all of the companies rushing in are going to be competitive in the long run. Some won't be able to create a great product; others may not be able to scale up production to meet military demand. One drone maker, who requested anonymity to speak openly on the topic, said the current situation is comparable to the early automobile industry. "100 years ago, you had a bunch of companies trying to produce cars, and at the end of the day, the strong survived. I think that's what you're starting to see now." Drones are not exactly a new focus for American defense companies. In the mid- to late-2010s, a small but still substantial number of businesses were developing drones like small UAVs amid the growth of commercial drone development. Costs, mass production, and capabilities weren't clear, though, and many of these companies were unsuccessful or shifted focus. That could be shaping how investors think about where to put — or not put — money into the market even if there are many more companies to work with. "I think investors are a little scared about investing into an industry that historically, for small drones, has not been very profitable," the drone maker said. The nuance there, he said, is that Ukraine's use of drones and its sprawling defense industry have demonstrated a different look at the modern battlefield and the industries needed to sustain a war. Kyiv's drone makers are pumping hundreds of thousands of them, many with Chinese drone parts, out each month at relatively low costs. The US situation is a one-for-one, though. Chinese parts are a definite no-go, increasing the need for domestic supply chains. That said, there isn't a wartime demand for millions of combat drones the way there is in Ukraine. One of the biggest questions is whether the Defense Department will buy enough small drones to make these business endeavors profitable in the near term. Looking at small drones, "if the US continues to only purchase 12- to 15,000 drones a year, having 300 vendors is probably not going to satisfy market dynamics of returning the majority to those vendors," Sarah Pearson, deputy director for commercial operations at DIU, told BI. DIU's perspective is that competition in the market can push vendors to build better capabilities and ultimately lead to the best possible product. Concerns, however, remain over whether DoD would continually buy enough drones to keep businesses going. "If we buy, call it 10,000 drones, unless we're in high-intensity conflict," the industry investor said, "I don't necessarily know that I see a world where we're replacing 10,000 drones every year." And if that's not the case, it is an issue for the drone business. 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Business Insider
14-06-2025
- Business
- Business Insider
Drone overload: Too many people want to sell drones to the US military
Drones are in high demand at the Petagon, but insiders say the market is already jammed with too many lookalike quadcopters and startups chasing the same investments and military dollars. "We're seeing a lot of companies in the space," one defense industry investor, who requested anonymity to speak freely on the topic, told Business Insider, noting that in many cases, there may not be significant differences in capability between the products that these companies are delivering. The relatively niche small uncrewed aerial vehicle market has seen a boom in competition in recent years, with many companies developing the actual uncrewed aircraft, as well as software programs and modular payloads. Lessons from new fights The Department of Defense has long used large drones like the MQ-9 Reaper built for reconnaissance and combat strike missions, but there is a growing recognition as a result of the Ukraine war and engagements in the Middle East that low-cost, attritable first-person-view (FPV) drones have a place in modern warfare. Heightened interest in these capabilities is, in turn, fueling the drone market and creating new research and development pathways even without programs of record. The yearslong war in Ukraine has driven significant advancements in aerial drones but also uncrewed ground and surface vehicles, sensors, electronic warfare, reconnaissance and intelligence systems, and more. "In the last five years, new technologies that are on display in Ukraine, they have a pretty big impact on warfare," Michael Brown, a partner with venture capital firm Shield Capital, told BI. Only the strong are likely to survive Within the US market, a lot of new drones are in technology demonstration programs. DoD is effectively putting out information on the types of systems and capabilities it wants. Various industry partners are applying with their solutions. Eventually, these will evolve into programs of record, and the competition will thin down dramatically when awards are granted to specific companies. Melissa Johnson, US Special Operations Command's acquisition executive, said the acquisitions, technology, and logistics team was "transparent with industry when issuing solicitations to communicate the needs of Special Operations Forces." She said that this process involves looking at a variety of factors, including "performance, manufacturability, operational considerations, and affordability." As the market becomes oversaturated with drone makers producing similar products, companies are increasingly trying to distinguish themselves in capability, as well as adaptability to countermeasures, such as electronic warfare. Not all of the companies rushing in are going to be competitive in the long run. Some won't be able to create a great product; others may not be able to scale up production to meet military demand. One drone maker, who requested anonymity to speak openly on the topic, said the current situation is comparable to the early automobile industry. "100 years ago, you had a bunch of companies trying to produce cars, and at the end of the day, the strong survived. I think that's what you're starting to see now." Cautious investing Drones are not exactly a new focus for American defense companies. In the mid- to late-2010s, a small but still substantial number of businesses were developing drones like small UAVs amid the growth of commercial drone development. Costs, mass production, and capabilities weren't clear, though, and many of these companies were unsuccessful or shifted focus. That could be shaping how investors think about where to put — or not put — money into the market even if there are many more companies to work with. "I think investors are a little scared about investing into an industry that historically, for small drones, has not been very profitable," the drone maker said. The nuance there, he said, is that Ukraine's use of drones and its sprawling defense industry have demonstrated a different look at the modern battlefield and the industries needed to sustain a war. Kyiv's drone makers are pumping hundreds of thousands of them, many with Chinese drone parts, out each month at relatively low costs. The US situation is a one-for-one, though. Chinese parts are a definite no-go, increasing the need for domestic supply chains. That said, there isn't a wartime demand for millions of combat drones the way there is in Ukraine. One of the biggest questions is whether the Defense Department will buy enough small drones to make these business endeavors profitable in the near term. Looking at small drones, "if the US continues to only purchase 12- to 15,000 drones a year, having 300 vendors is probably not going to satisfy market dynamics of returning the majority to those vendors," Sarah Pearson, deputy director for commercial operations at DIU, told BI. DIU's perspective is that competition in the market can push vendors to build better capabilities and ultimately lead to the best possible product. Concerns, however, remain over whether DoD would continually buy enough drones to keep businesses going. "If we buy, call it 10,000 drones, unless we're in high-intensity conflict," the industry investor said, "I don't necessarily know that I see a world where we're replacing 10,000 drones every year." And if that's not the case, it is an issue for the drone business.
WIRED
13-06-2025
- Politics
- WIRED
The High-Flying Escalation of CBP's Predator Drone Flights Over LA
Jun 13, 2025 11:48 AM Custom and Border Protection flying powerful Predator B drones over Los Angeles further breaks the seal on federal involvement in civilian matters typically handled by state or local authorities. An MQ-9 Reaper drone with Customs and Border Protection awaits the next mission over the US-Mexico border on November 4, 2022, at Fort Huachuca, Arizona. Photograph:On Wednesday, United States Customs and Border Protection confirmed to 404 Media that it has been flying Predator drones over Los Angeles amid the LA protests. The military drones, a CBP statement said, 'are supporting our federal law enforcement partners in the Greater Los Angeles area, including Immigration and Customs Enforcement, with aerial support of their operations.' State-level law enforcement agencies across the US use various types of drones and other vehicles, like helicopters, to conduct aerial surveillance, and other agencies use drones in their operations as well. For example, the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection 'doubled its use of drones' this year, according to the office of Governor Gavin Newsom, as part of efforts to combat forest fires. However, CBP's MQ-9 Reaper drones, also known as Predator B drones, are military-caliber UAVs used for aerial reconnaissance that can be armed. In 2020, during President Donald Trump's first administration, CBP flew a Predator drone over Minneapolis during the George Floyd protests. And, in the intervening years, researchers have tracked Department of Homeland Security Predator drones flying over various US cities with no clear explanation. In the case of LA, Trump has deployed more than 700 active-duty Marines and federalized the National Guard, sending nearly 4,000 guardsmen to California over Newsom's objections. In combination with these actions, the presence of the CBP drones paints a picture of expanding federal involvement—and potentially control—over what are typically state matters. 'Military gear has been used for domestic law enforcement for a long time, but flying military gear over LA at a time when the president has sent military units against the wishes of the governor is noteworthy," says Matthew Feeney, a longtime emerging technologies researcher and advocacy manager at the nonpartisan UK civil liberties group Big Brother Watch. 'If the federal government portrays immigration as a national security issue, we shouldn't be surprised if it openly uses the tools of national security—i.e., military hardware—in response.' Carrying powerful cameras and other sensors, Predator drones can record clear, detailed footage of events like protests from high altitudes. CBP's 'Air and Marine Operations (AMO) is providing aerial support to federal law enforcement partners conducting operations in the Greater Los Angeles area,' CBP told WIRED in a statement responding to questions about whether the operation over LA is routine or anomalous. 'AMO's efforts are focused on situational awareness and officer safety support as requested.' Patrick Eddington, a senior fellow in homeland security and civil liberties at the Cato Institute, warns that 'the more the protests spread to other cities, the more of that kind of surveillance we'll see.' CBP told 404 Media this week that 'AMO is not engaged in the surveillance of first amendment activities.' That statement aligns with a commitment the US Department of Homeland Security made in December 2015. 'Unmanned aircraft system-recorded data should not be collected, disseminated or retained solely for the purpose of monitoring activities protected by the US Constitution, such as the First Amendment's protections of religion, speech, press, assembly, and redress of grievances (e.g., protests, demonstrations),' a DHS 'Privacy, Civil Rights & Civil Liberties Unmanned Aircraft Systems Working Group' wrote at the time. In practice, though, it is unclear how the Predator surveillance could 'support' ICE agents and other federal law enforcement without monitoring the protests and capturing images of protesters. While researchers note that the use of Predator drones over LA is not unprecedented—and, at this point, perhaps not surprising—they emphasize that this pattern of activity over time only makes it more likely that the federal government will deploy such monitoring in the future, regardless of how a state is handling a situation. 'It's not new or even all that unexpected from a spooked Trump administration, but it's still a terrible use of military technology on civilian populations,' says UAV researcher Faine Greenwood. 'It's basically continuing a worrying trend, but also people should be angry about it and refuse to normalize it.'
Hindustan Times
20-05-2025
- Science
- Hindustan Times
Taiwan invasion soon? China unveils drone 'mothership' Jiu Tian that can carry 100 attack drones
China is set to unveil the world's first drone 'mothership'—the Jiu Tian carrier—designed to launch up to 100 AI-guided kamikaze drones. With a range of 7,000 km and advanced swarm-launch capabilities, Jiu Tian could change the rules of aerial warfare. Unveiled at the Zhuhai Air Show 2024, it mirrors and surpasses Western systems like the MQ-9 Reaper and the RQ-4 Global Hawk. As China escalates threats to Taiwan, this new technology signals a major shift in military power. Watch to learn how Jiu Tian could impact the Taiwan Strait and global security.
