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First Post
a day ago
- Politics
- First Post
Why has Hezbollah stayed out of the Israel-Iran conflict so far?
As Iran and Israel exchange direct attacks, Hezbollah — Tehran's most powerful regional ally — has chosen to stay on the sidelines. The Lebanon-based group, weakened by last year's Israeli strikes and under domestic and international pressure, has publicly pledged loyalty to Iran but held back militarily read more Demonstrators hold pictures of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and late Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, as people gather for a rally in solidarity with Iran, amid the Iran-Israel conflict, in Beirut's southern suburbs, Lebanon, June 20, 2025. File Image/Reuters One player is missing from the recent tensions between Iran and Israel. The lack of military engagement by Hezbollah, Iran's long-time and most strategically placed regional ally is being seen as an anomaly in the recent conflict. Based in Lebanon and once regarded as among the most effective non-state actors in the world, Hezbollah's decision to refrain from joining the hostilities stands in stark contrast to its prior behaviour during regional escalations, particularly following the October 7, 2023, attacks carried out by Hamas on Israel. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Tehran, for decades, has fostered a network of allied militias across West Asia, including in Iraq, Yemen, Syria and Lebanon, designed to serve both as deterrents and retaliatory forces in the event of aggression against Iran. Of these, Hezbollah has traditionally been the most heavily armed and strategically located, directly bordering northern Israel. But while Israel and Iran have exchanged attacks for days, Hezbollah's military units have remained in their positions without launching retaliatory strikes. According to a Lebanese government official familiar with the situation, army leaders received internal signals from Hezbollah that the group had no current plans to join the ongoing confrontation. The official spoke on condition of anonymity to Bloomberg due to the sensitive nature of the information. Why Hezbollah has stayed out of the Israel-Iran conflict so far One of the key factors influencing Hezbollah's current posture is the significant damage it incurred during its conflict with Israel in the latter half of the previous year. The group lost many of its senior commanders, including longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah, and faced extensive destruction of its infrastructure. Israel's military employed extensive tactics including drone operations, aerial bombardments and ground offensives across southern Lebanon and parts of Beirut. That campaign, followed by a ceasefire in late November, left large portions of Hezbollah's stronghold areas in ruins. The Lebanese military, which has since increased its presence in the south, was able to seize various weapons caches reportedly abandoned or hidden by the militia. The physical and economic toll of the conflict has been immense. According to World Bank estimates, the direct damages and losses suffered by Lebanon during the Israel-Hezbollah hostilities amounted to approximately $14 billion. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD A further $11 billion is expected to be needed for rebuilding, a sum neither the Lebanese government nor Hezbollah appears to have secured. Compounding the situation is Lebanon's severe financial crisis, Iran's economic constraints due to international sanctions and the broader costs of regional instability. These factors have left Hezbollah with diminished operational capacity and growing political pressure at home. Lebanon's newly formed technocratic administration, led by Prime Minister Nawaf Salam and President Joseph Aoun, has pointed out the need to keep the country insulated from external wars. During a cabinet session, Salam stated that Lebanon must avoid 'being dragged or pushed in any way in the ongoing regional war.' How Hezbollah is still batting for Iran While Hezbollah has not taken military action, its leadership has continued to publicly affirm its alliance with Iran. In a speech Thursday night, Hezbollah leader Sheikh Naim Qassem voiced unconditional support for Iran in the unfolding crisis with Israel and the United States. 'Iran has the right to defend itself, and the peoples of the region and the free people of the world have the right to stand with the great leader and with Iran in one trench,' Qassem said. He also highlighted the legitimacy of Iran's nuclear programme, stating: 'It does not harm anyone in the slightest way; rather, it represents a great scientific contribution to the advancement of Iran and the region, relying on its own capabilities without foreign tutelage.' STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Denouncing international criticism of Iran, Qassem accused world powers of opposing Tehran not for its nuclear capabilities but for its ideological values and resistance posture. 'America is leading the region into chaos and instability, and the world into open crises,' he declared, adding that such policies would 'only bring it shame, disgrace, and failure.' Despite these declarations, the group's operational activity has not matched the intensity of its rhetoric. This marks a significant departure from its behaviour following the Hamas-led assault on Israel in October 2023, after which Hezbollah quickly launched cross-border missile attacks in support of its Palestinian allies. Qassem also warned of consequences stemming from Israeli actions: 'Israel's aggression will have major repercussions on regional stability and will not pass without a response and punishment.' However, no direct retaliatory moves have followed, suggesting that Hezbollah is calibrating its responses based on broader regional and domestic considerations. How Israel & US continue to pressure Hezbollah While Hezbollah has not engaged in new offensive operations, the United States has sent strong warnings to dissuade the group from joining the Israel-Iran conflict. US Special Envoy for Syria and Ambassador to Turkey, Thomas Barrack, visited Beirut and met with Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, a known Hezbollah ally. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Following the meeting, Barrack said: 'I can say on behalf of President Trump, which he has been very clear in expressing, as has Special Envoy Steve Witkoff: that would be a very, very, very bad decision.' These comments reflect Washington's position that Hezbollah's involvement would escalate the crisis and possibly provoke a broader war — something few actors in the region currently want. Meanwhile, Israeli surveillance continues with intensity. Drones reportedly conduct near-daily flights over Beirut, and airstrikes on select targets have not ceased. These ongoing threats have limited Hezbollah's freedom of movement and capacity to regroup. Additionally, the Lebanese population, still reeling from last year's devastation, has shown little appetite for renewed conflict. Viral social media videos from cities like Beirut have shown residents filming Iranian ballistic missiles flying overhead during Israeli retaliatory operations — showing how close Lebanon remains to the conflict, even without participating directly. A spokesperson for Hezbollah, speaking to Newsweek, stated the group remains 'committed to the ceasefire agreement' with Israel. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Still, analysts suggest that Hezbollah's current stance is conditional. Political analyst Qassim Qassir, who has close ties to the group, said that Hezbollah may alter its position depending on how events unfold. 'Everything is on the table. Nothing is off limits,' he noted, implying that the group's inactivity may be temporary, especially if Iran's regime comes under more direct threat. With inputs from agencies
Mint
3 days ago
- Politics
- Mint
Once-Mighty Hezbollah Stays Out of Iran's War Against Israel
One of Israel's most feared scenarios has long been that Iran would unleash an attack on it in coordination with its powerful network of proxy militias. Tehran spent decades funding and arming Islamist groups in countries like Iraq, Yemen and Israel's northern neighbor Lebanon — all of them committed to bringing about the Jewish state's demise. Yet since Israel started its attack on Iran late last week, they've all been conspicuously absent from the unfolding conflict. Most notable is Hezbollah, once one of the most formidable non-state forces in the world and seen as the greatest asset of Iran's 'axis of resistance' in the Middle East. The Lebanon-based group has been a mere bystander as Israel and Iran bomb each other. That's after Israel killed many of its leaders and destroyed much of its arsenal in a bombing and ground campaign in the second half of last year. A key part of Hezbollah's mission as an Iran-backed militia across the border from Israel is to act as a deterrent to attacks on the Islamic Republic. It's a crucial part of what's often called Iran's forward-defense doctrine. As Israel started strikes on Iran on Friday, attention turned to Lebanon and the group's response. Naim Qasem, the organization's leader since Israel assassinated long-time chief Hassan Nasrallah in September, struck the usual tone of public support for Tehran and pledged defeat for Israel. Yet it's not fired on Israel or on Israeli troops still stationed in the south of Lebanon, and hasn't even threatened to. A Lebanese government official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said army leaders received indications from Hezbollah that it would not intervene. It's a stark difference from the start of Israel's military campaign in Gaza in October 2023, a response to an attack by Hamas, another Iranian proxy group. Hezbollah launched missiles at northern Israeli communities almost immediately, forcing tens of thousands of people to evacuate their homes, and the two sides exchanged limited but regular fire for the best part of a year. Israel then dramatically stepped up its operations by exploding thousands of booby-trapped pagers and other mobile devices used by Hezbollah members, wounding many and leaving the group in disarray. A subsequent military campaign saw Israel bombard parts of Beirut and target Hezbollah strongholds and commanders across the country before a November ceasefire — a deal that appears to still allow Israel to strike targets in Lebanon it deems a Hezbollah threat. The offensive against Hezbollah destroyed swaths of south Lebanon, where the group is most influential. Reconstruction and recovery costs are estimated at $11 billion. With Iran's finances squeezed by sanctions and the cost of the unfolding war, it's difficult to see Hezbollah rebounding in the short term. That said, the group, which is also a political party, remains influential within Lebanon and may yet decide and find a way to support its key backer. Hezbollah's decline leaves only one other Iran-backed group with the ability to attack Israel in a significant way: the Houthis in Yemen. While they regular fire missiles are Israel, they are too far away to present a major threat and will likely reserve the bulk of their resources to disrupt shipping in the southern Red Sea. The US began a bombing campaign against the Houthis earlier this year but stopped last month after a ceasefire facilitated by Oman. Hezbollah, the Houthis and Hamas are all designated terrorist organizations by the US. Iraq has several Iran-backed militias. Yet in the past they have mostly focused on attacking US bases in Iraq and places such as Jordan, rather than Israel. In Lebanon, the national army is more heavily deployed in the south of the country than it has been for years and has seized the arsenal left behind by Hezbollah. President Joseph Aoun, elected in January with US backing, and his government have vowed to regain total control over arms in the country, though negotiations over Hezbollah's remaining stockpile have yet to start. While it's unclear how much of Hezbollah's arsenal is still intact, the group has lost its freedom to maneuver, with Israeli drones buzzing almost daily over Beirut and jets continuously striking targets, according to Sami Nader, head of Beirut-based think-tank the Levant Institute. 'It's under massive pressure,' he said, 'not only from Lebanese rivals but also its own constituencies who feel they paid the heaviest price.'
Time of India
4 days ago
- Politics
- Time of India
Once-mighty Hezbollah stays out of Iran's war against Israel
One of Israel 's most feared scenarios has long been that Iran would unleash an attack on it in coordination with its powerful network of proxy militias. Tehran spent decades funding and arming Islamist groups in countries like Iraq, Yemen and Israel's northern neighbor Lebanon — all of them committed to bringing about the Jewish state's demise. Yet since Israel started its attack on Iran late last week, they've all been conspicuously absent from the unfolding conflict. Ads By Google Ad will close in 30 Skip ad in 5 Skip Ad Most notable is Hezbollah , once one of the most formidable non-state forces in the world and seen as the greatest asset of Iran's 'axis of resistance' in the Middle East. The Lebanon-based group has been a mere bystander as Israel and Iran bomb each other. That's after Israel killed many of its leaders and destroyed much of its arsenal in a bombing and ground campaign in the second half of last year. A key part of Hezbollah's mission as an Iran-backed militia across the border from Israel is to act as a deterrent to attacks on the Islamic Republic. It's a crucial part of what's often called Iran's forward-defense doctrine. Live Events As Israel started strikes on Iran on Friday, attention turned to Lebanon and the group's response. Bloomberg Naim Qasem, the organization's leader since Israel assassinated long-time chief Hassan Nasrallah in September, struck the usual tone of public support for Tehran and pledged defeat for Israel. Yet it's not fired on Israel or on Israeli troops still stationed in the south of Lebanon, and hasn't even threatened to. A Lebanese government official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said army leaders received indications from Hezbollah that it would not intervene. It's a stark difference from the start of Israel's military campaign in Gaza in October 2023, a response to an attack by Hamas, another Iranian proxy group. Hezbollah launched missiles at northern Israeli communities almost immediately, forcing tens of thousands of people to evacuate their homes, and the two sides exchanged limited but regular fire for the best part of a year. Israel then dramatically stepped up its operations by exploding thousands of booby-trapped pagers and other mobile devices used by Hezbollah members, wounding many and leaving the group in disarray. A subsequent military campaign saw Israel bombard parts of Beirut and target Hezbollah strongholds and commanders across the country before a November ceasefire — a deal that appears to still allow Israel to strike targets in Lebanon it deems a Hezbollah threat. The offensive against Hezbollah destroyed swaths of south Lebanon, where the group is most influential. Reconstruction and recovery costs are estimated at $11 billion. With Iran's finances squeezed by sanctions and the cost of the unfolding war, it's difficult to see Hezbollah rebounding in the short term. That said, the group, which is also a political party, remains influential within Lebanon and may yet decide and find a way to support its key backer. Hezbollah's decline leaves only one other Iran-backed group with the ability to attack Israel in a significant way: the Houthis in Yemen. While they regular fire missiles are Israel, they are too far away to present a major threat and will likely reserve the bulk of their resources to disrupt shipping in the southern Red Sea. The US began a bombing campaign against the Houthis earlier this year but stopped last month after a ceasefire facilitated by Oman. Hezbollah, the Houthis and Hamas are all designated terrorist organizations by the US. Iraq has several Iran-backed militias. Yet in the past they have mostly focused on attacking US bases in Iraq and places such as Jordan, rather than Israel. In Lebanon, the national army is more heavily deployed in the south of the country than it has been for years and has seized the arsenal left behind by Hezbollah. President Joseph Aoun, elected in January with US backing, and his government have vowed to regain total control over arms in the country, though negotiations over Hezbollah's remaining stockpile have yet to start. While it's unclear how much of Hezbollah's arsenal is still intact, the group has lost its freedom to maneuver, with Israeli drones buzzing almost daily over Beirut and jets continuously striking targets, according to Sami Nader, head of Beirut-based think-tank the Levant Institute. 'It's under massive pressure,' he said, 'not only from Lebanese rivals but also its own constituencies who feel they paid the heaviest price.'
Hindustan Times
4 days ago
- Politics
- Hindustan Times
Iran-backed Hezbollah stays out of conflict with Israel as tensions escalate
One of Israel's most feared scenarios has long been that Iran would one day unleash an attack on the country in coordination with its powerful network of allied militant proxies. Tehran spent decades arming and funding a number of Islamist groups in countries like Iraq, Yemen and Israel's northern neighbor Lebanon — all committed to bringing about Israel's demise. Yet since Israel started its attack on Iran late last week, they've all been conspicuously absent from the unfolding conflict. Also Read: In Iran's ban on internet-connected devices, a reminder of Israel's Lebanon walkie-talkie, pager blasts Most notable of those is Hezbollah, once one of the most formidable non-state forces in the world and seen as the greatest asset of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps in the Middle East. The Lebanon-based group has been a mere observer as Israel and Iran trade fire for a fifth consecutive day, after Israel killed many of its leaders and destroyed much of its arsenal in a bombing and ground campaign in the second half of last year. A key part of Hezbollah's mission as an Iran-backed militia across the border from Israel is to act as a deterrent to attacks meant to hurt the Islamic Republic. Therefore as news emerged of Israel's initial salvo on Iran, eyes turned to Lebanon and the group's response. Naim Qasem, the organization's leader after Israel assassinated long-time chief Hassan Nasrallah in September, struck the usual tone of public support for Tehran and pledged defeat for Israel. Yet a Lebanese government official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said army leaders received indications from Hezbollah that it would not intervene. The situation was very different at the start of Israel's military campaign in Gaza, a response to the October 2023 attacks by Hamas, another Iranian proxy group. Hezbollah began firing missiles at northern Israeli communities almost immediately, and the two sides exchanged limited but regular fire for the best part of a year. Israel then dramatically stepped up its approach by exploding thousands of booby-trapped pagers and other mobile devices used by Hezbollah members, wounding many of them and leaving the group in disarray. A subsequent military campaign saw Israel bombard parts of Beirut and target Hezbollah strongholds and commanders across the country before a November ceasefire — an ambiguous deal that appears to still allow Israel to strike any targets in Lebanon it deems a Hezbollah threat. The offensive against Hezbollah destroyed swaths of south Lebanon, where the group is most influential. Reconstruction and recovery costs are estimated at $11 billion, something neither the Lebanese government nor Hezbollah have been able to secure so far. With Iran's finances squeezed by sanctions and the cost of the unfolding war, it's difficult to see Hezbollah rebounding in the short term. That said, the group, which is also a political party, remains influential within Lebanon and may yet find a way to support its key backer. Hezbollah's decline leaves only one other Iran-backed group with the ability to attack Israel in a significany way — the Houthis in Yemen. But they are probably too far away to present a major threat — reserving the bulk of their firepower to disrupt maritime shipping. The US began a bombing campaign against the Houthis earlier this year but stopped last month after a ceasefire facilitated by Oman. Hezbollah, the Houthis and Hamas are all designated terrorist organizations by the US. The Lebanese army is more heavily deployed in the south of the country than it has been for years and has seized the arsenal left behind by Hezbollah. President Joseph Aoun, elected in January with US backing, and his government have vowed to regain total control over arms in the country, though negotiations over Hezbollah's remaining stockpile have yet to start. While it's not clear how much of Hezbollah's arsenal is still intact, the group has lost its freedom to maneuver, with Israeli drones buzzing almost daily over Beirut and jets continuously striking targets, according to Sami Nader, head of Beirut-based thinktank the Levant Institute. 'Internally, it's under massive pressure. Not only from Lebanese rivals but also its own constituencies who feel they paid the heaviest price,' Nader said.
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First Post
5 days ago
- Politics
- First Post
Israel's multi-front war with Iran could alter power dynamics in West Asia for a long time
As Israel is pursuing a multi-front war in West Asia with the offensive against Iran, there is no certainty about the direction that West Asia would take in the coming days. But one thing is sure that the regional balance of power would likely change. Here are three ways it can change. read more A fire at Tehran's Shahran oil depot after an Israeli attack. Explosions were also been reported in Jerusalem and Tel Avivin the early hours of Sunday after Iran launched another round of retaliatory strikes. Reuters After Hamas in Gaza Strip, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthis of Yemen, Israel is now fighting a war with Ayatollah Khamenei's regime in Iran. While there are concerns that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has gambled the future of Israel and West Asia by launching a war without means to execute it to the end or without an exit strategy, there are also concerns that the war would alter power dynamics in West Asia in unforeseen ways for a long time. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Netanyahu has not just sought to stop Iran from developing a nuclear regime, but has sought to overthrow the regime of Khamenei. Only he knows if that is rhetoric to bolster support domestically and whip up opposition of a disgruntled population inside Iran or whether he is actually aiming for it. Irrespective of Netanyahu's true intentions, there are no assurances that the war would go as per his wishes or whether the regime change in Iran would work in Israel's favour or that of its allies. Here are the ways in which his war on Iran could change the balance of power in the region — for good or bad. Weakened Iran emboldens Israel Iran appears to be at its weakest in the longest time. Iran's air defences have virtually been destroyed. Iranian military leaders are dead — and the remaining ones keep dying. Iranian military bases, energy sites, missile bases, and missile production sites have been hammered. Iran does not have any proxies that can come to its aid as its top proxies, Gaza-based Hamas and Lebanon-based Hezbollah, have already been degraded in the post-October 7 war with Israel. With complete air superiority over Iran, Israel can bomb Iran at will at the time and place of its choosing. After the degradation of Hamas and Hezbollah and the ouster of the Assad dynasty in Syria, the decapitation of the Iran empowers Israel not just in the long-running Israel-Iran conflict but also in the Israel-Palestinian conflict. As Iran had become the main external sponsor of Palestinian armed groups, its weakened position would embolden Netanyahu to deny a Palestinian state even more firmly. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD As Firstpost's Madhur Sharma noted previously, Netanyahu could go ahead with Greater Israel and kill the Palestinian statehood and two-state solution with US President Donald Trump on his side. Israel already controls most of Gaza and controls swathes of Lebanon and Syria. But what if Netanyahu fails? Even as Israel has decapitated Iranian military, the main objective of the war remains unfulfilled so far: the destruction of the Iranian nuclear capabilities. Main Iranian nuclear sites of Natanz and Fordow remain standing and have only suffered limited damage. As these sites are built underground, with Fordow nuclear site built inside a mountain and located half a mile underground, these sites cannot be destroyed without active US involvement either directly via US warplanes joining the bombardment or indirectly via the United States providing 'bunker buster' munitions to Israel. So far, Trump has not indicated that he has the stomach for overt US involvement in the war. He has maintained throughout the war that he sees the Israeli bombardment as a pressure campaign he can utilise to reach a deal with the United States. If Iran does reach a deal with the United States and Trump pressures Netanyahu to end the war, he would stand defeated. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Moreover, as he stands with his back to the wall, Khamenei has just two options: either give up nuclear programme entirely or go full-throttle to develop the nuclear weapon to get some deterrence at last. If Iran develops the nuclear weapons, Israel's supremacy in the region evaporates. A regional nuclear race If Iran does develop a nuclear weapon or it is reliably learnt that it is at the cusp of nuclear weapon, the other Islamic powerhouse in the region, Saudi Arabia, will not remain without a weapon for long. The West Asia would be in a nuclear race unprecedented in world history. All bets would be off if the world's most trigger-happy region would have three nuclear powers, particularly as two of those regimes —Israel and Iran— would be committed to destroying each other.
