Once-Mighty Hezbollah Stays Out of Iran's War Against Israel
One of Israel's most feared scenarios has long been that Iran would unleash an attack on it in coordination with its powerful network of proxy militias.
Tehran spent decades funding and arming Islamist groups in countries like Iraq, Yemen and Israel's northern neighbor Lebanon — all of them committed to bringing about the Jewish state's demise.
Yet since Israel started its attack on Iran late last week, they've all been conspicuously absent from the unfolding conflict.
Most notable is Hezbollah, once one of the most formidable non-state forces in the world and seen as the greatest asset of Iran's 'axis of resistance' in the Middle East. The Lebanon-based group has been a mere bystander as Israel and Iran bomb each other. That's after Israel killed many of its leaders and destroyed much of its arsenal in a bombing and ground campaign in the second half of last year.
A key part of Hezbollah's mission as an Iran-backed militia across the border from Israel is to act as a deterrent to attacks on the Islamic Republic. It's a crucial part of what's often called Iran's forward-defense doctrine.
As Israel started strikes on Iran on Friday, attention turned to Lebanon and the group's response.
Naim Qasem, the organization's leader since Israel assassinated long-time chief Hassan Nasrallah in September, struck the usual tone of public support for Tehran and pledged defeat for Israel. Yet it's not fired on Israel or on Israeli troops still stationed in the south of Lebanon, and hasn't even threatened to.
A Lebanese government official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said army leaders received indications from Hezbollah that it would not intervene.
It's a stark difference from the start of Israel's military campaign in Gaza in October 2023, a response to an attack by Hamas, another Iranian proxy group. Hezbollah launched missiles at northern Israeli communities almost immediately, forcing tens of thousands of people to evacuate their homes, and the two sides exchanged limited but regular fire for the best part of a year.
Israel then dramatically stepped up its operations by exploding thousands of booby-trapped pagers and other mobile devices used by Hezbollah members, wounding many and leaving the group in disarray.
A subsequent military campaign saw Israel bombard parts of Beirut and target Hezbollah strongholds and commanders across the country before a November ceasefire — a deal that appears to still allow Israel to strike targets in Lebanon it deems a Hezbollah threat.
The offensive against Hezbollah destroyed swaths of south Lebanon, where the group is most influential. Reconstruction and recovery costs are estimated at $11 billion.
With Iran's finances squeezed by sanctions and the cost of the unfolding war, it's difficult to see Hezbollah rebounding in the short term. That said, the group, which is also a political party, remains influential within Lebanon and may yet decide and find a way to support its key backer.
Hezbollah's decline leaves only one other Iran-backed group with the ability to attack Israel in a significant way: the Houthis in Yemen. While they regular fire missiles are Israel, they are too far away to present a major threat and will likely reserve the bulk of their resources to disrupt shipping in the southern Red Sea.
The US began a bombing campaign against the Houthis earlier this year but stopped last month after a ceasefire facilitated by Oman.
Hezbollah, the Houthis and Hamas are all designated terrorist organizations by the US.
Iraq has several Iran-backed militias. Yet in the past they have mostly focused on attacking US bases in Iraq and places such as Jordan, rather than Israel.
In Lebanon, the national army is more heavily deployed in the south of the country than it has been for years and has seized the arsenal left behind by Hezbollah. President Joseph Aoun, elected in January with US backing, and his government have vowed to regain total control over arms in the country, though negotiations over Hezbollah's remaining stockpile have yet to start.
While it's unclear how much of Hezbollah's arsenal is still intact, the group has lost its freedom to maneuver, with Israeli drones buzzing almost daily over Beirut and jets continuously striking targets, according to Sami Nader, head of Beirut-based think-tank the Levant Institute.
'It's under massive pressure,' he said, 'not only from Lebanese rivals but also its own constituencies who feel they paid the heaviest price.'
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