Latest news with #LEI
Epoch Times
15 hours ago
- Business
- Epoch Times
What Kind of Jobs Can Weather the Storm of Recession?
As the economy reacts to President Donald Trump's sweeping U.S. tariffs, some Americans may be worrying about job certainty. The economy contracted by 0.2 percent in the first quarter of 2025, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Moreover, the Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the United States fell by 1 percent in April 2025 to 99.4, according to the latest data from the think tank The Conference Board.
Fibre2Fashion
2 days ago
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
UK LEI declines further in April; CEI edges up: The Conference Board
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the United Kingdom declined by 0.4 per cent in April 2025 to 74.9 (2016=100), following a similar drop in March. Over the six-month period from October 2024 to April 2025, the LEI contracted by 1.2 per cent, a steeper fall than the 1 per cent decline seen in the prior six months, TCB said in a release. 'The UK LEI continued to slide in April, remaining on a downward trend that started in 2022. This reflected the economic uncertainty in the month, as well as higher inflation and energy costs, and worries regarding escalating trade tensions. The 6-month growth rate of the UK LEI has cooled but remained above the recession threshold,' said Allen Li, associate economist at The Conference Board. Meanwhile, the Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI), which reflects current economic conditions, rose by 0.2 per cent to 108 in April after remaining flat in March. The CEI grew by 1.1 per cent over the same six-month period, slightly slower than the 1.2 per cent increase registered between April and October 2024. 'Overall, the LEI reading suggests that, after a stronger than expected first quarter, economic growth in the United Kingdom will likely moderate in the remainder of 2025. The Conference Board expects UK GDP to grow by 1.4 per cent in 2025 after 1.1 per cent in 2024,' Li added. The UK's Leading Economic Index fell 0.4 per cent to 74.9 in April 2025, extending a downward trend since 2022 amid economic uncertainty, inflation, and trade tensions. The Coincident Economic Index rose 0.2 per cent to 108. The Conference Board expects UK GDP growth to ease to 1.4 per cent in 2025, following 1.1 per cent in 2024, after a stronger-than-expected first quarter. Fibre2Fashion News Desk (HU)
Yahoo
7 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Tikehau Capital: Disclosure of Shares Repurchases from 06 June 2025 to 12 June 2025
PARIS, June 13, 2025--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Regulatory News: In accordance with Article 5 of EU Regulation n° 596/2014 (Market Abuse Regulation), detailed information is available on the website of Tikehau Capital (Paris:TKO): Name of the issuer Issuer Identity Code (LEI) Trading Day ISIN Aggregated volume per day (number of shares) Weighted average price per day Market (MIC Code) TIKEHAU CAPITAL 969500BY8TEU16U3SJ94 06/06/2025 FR0013230612 1,016 19.1754 XPAR TIKEHAU CAPITAL 969500BY8TEU16U3SJ94 09/06/2025 FR0013230612 463 19.1254 XPAR TIKEHAU CAPITAL 969500BY8TEU16U3SJ94 10/06/2025 FR0013230612 1,071 19.0114 XPAR TIKEHAU CAPITAL 969500BY8TEU16U3SJ94 11/06/2025 FR0013230612 892 19.0490 XPAR TIKEHAU CAPITAL 969500BY8TEU16U3SJ94 12/06/2025 FR0013230612 1,086 18.8606 XPAR TOTAL 4,528 19.0311 View source version on Contacts Tikehau Capital
Yahoo
10-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Is a Recession Coming or Not? Here Are Both Sides of the Coin
The debate over whether the U.S. is heading into a recession in 2025 is intensifying, with economists, policymakers and business leaders offering conflicting perspectives. While some indicators suggest an economic downturn is imminent, others point to resilience and potential for continued growth. Is a recession coming or not? Here are both sides of the coin. Trending Now: For You: According to Trading Economics, the U.S. economy contracted by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2025, marking the first decline since early 2022. In addition, a PNC Bank analysis found that consumer spending has also slowed to 0.3% after a 3.7% increase in March as consumers attempted to get ahead of anticipated tariffs. Check Out: President Trump's tariff policies have led to increased import costs, contributing to inflation and supply chain disruptions. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), an international body that monitors global economic trends, has downgraded U.S. growth projections to 1.6% for 2025, citing these trade policies as a significant drag on the economy. At a recent meeting, Federal Reserve officials said the job market was anticipated to deteriorate significantly, with the unemployment rate projected to rise above the staff's estimate of its natural level by the end of this year and stay elevated beyond that natural rate until at least 2027. Additionally, CEO confidence has plummeted, with 83% predicting a recession within the next 12 to 18 months, according to a survey by The Conference Board, a non-profit research organization. The organization's Leading Economic Index (LEI) is widely used to predict the direction of the U.S. economy. According to J.P. Morgan data, the yield curve inversion, a traditional recession predictor, has persisted since July 2022. While its reliability is debated, the New York Fed's model estimates a 51% probability of a recession starting within a year, with a confidence interval ranging from 39% to 64%. Despite concerns, the labor market remains robust, with unemployment at 4.2% and continued job growth, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Consumer spending, a key economic driver, has shown resilience, supporting the argument against an immediate recession. For example, data from the Washington Retail Association showed that in March, retail sales increased by 1.4%, driven by higher spending on cars, dining out and apparel. The Federal Reserve has maintained steady interest rates, balancing concerns over inflation and economic growth. 'The U.S. economy is still on a firm footing, but uncertainty has notably increased since the beginning of the year. In this environment, monetary policy will need to carefully balance our dual-mandate goals of price stability and maximum employment,' Federal Reserve Board Member Lisa Cook said at a recent meeting. Some economists suggest the U.S. may be experiencing a 'vibecession,' where negative public sentiment does not align with economic fundamentals, according to ClearBridge. This disconnect implies that while people feel pessimistic, the economy may not be in an actual recession. While official declarations of recession rely on two consecutive quarters of GDP decline, some economists argue that the reality of a downturn is already unfolding, both in data and in everyday life. 'Although there are still some economic sectors where activity remains and this may create the illusion of stability because the real situation remains tense,' said Julia Khandoshko, CEO of Mind Money. 'Everything that happens with debts and bonds exerts systemic pressure. Many people think that there is no recession until it is announced. This is a big mistake. In fact, when it is officially recognized, everything will be felt in the wallet for a long time,' Khandoshko explained. As uncertainty grows, Khandoshko said the smartest move is to prepare for a recession rather than trying to predict it. 'Think in advance how to reduce unnecessary expenses, postpone major purchases, try to reduce debts and form your safe haven,' she said. 'Because if everything goes according to a bad scenario, the speed at which the situation will change will be high.' Editor's note on political coverage: GOBankingRates is nonpartisan and strives to cover all aspects of the economy objectively and present balanced reports on politically focused finance stories. You can find more coverage of this topic on More From GOBankingRates 3 Luxury SUVs That Will Have Massive Price Drops in Summer 2025 The 5 Car Brands Named the Least Reliable of 2025 10 Unreliable SUVs To Stay Away From Buying This article originally appeared on Is a Recession Coming or Not? Here Are Both Sides of the Coin Sign in to access your portfolio
Hans India
08-06-2025
- Business
- Hans India
How Legal Entity Identifiers Help Prevent Financial Fraud in Emerging Markets
Imagine trying to fight fraud when you cannot even verify who is involved in the transaction. That is the reality for many financial systems in emerging markets today! The budding digital transformation and global trade participation in emerging economies often brings a lack of transparency in business dealings. Fraudsters often try to exploit these gaps with fake companies and complex ownership structures that are difficult to trace. These situations call for a system to identify legal entities. LEI - Legal Entity Identifier brings clarity to complex financial transactions. You can call it a digital passport for businesses to make it possible to know exactly who you're dealing with. This blog will cover how LEI can help financial fraud prevention in emerging markets and bring transparency to the fraud-resistant financial scenarios. Understanding the Fraud Challenge in Emerging Markets Emerging markets are full of potential and economic growth but still face significant obstacles in fighting financial fraud. These economies often witness rapid digital technology adoption and increased trans-border commerce with budding financial systems. All of that, if not properly managed, can provide fertile ground for fraud. The common schemes include trade-related money laundering, invoice fraud, misuse of shell companies to conceal ownership and more. One of the major obstacles lies in the absence of accountability in corporate structures. A majority of businesses operate under minimal surveillance from the regulator which makes it challenging for financial institutions to carry out due diligence. You can also witness inconsistencies in data sources like Know Your Customer and Anti-Money Laundering frameworks. Many emerging markets heavily depend on informal markets where transactions often go unrecorded and unregulated. This can lead to vulnerabilities and hampers effective monitoring and enforcement. As these markets integrate in the financial system worldwide, the need for standard authentic identity solutions is crucial to decrease the fraud risk and ensure a secure space for the financial system. Ways in Which LEI Helps Prevent Financial Fraud By Establishing Verified Identity LEI serves as an excellent way to prevent fraud as it gives a verified and standardized identity for legal entities. Every LEI links to a reference data which includes official name, registration number, ownership structure and more about the entity. This helps to eliminate the confusion that is often utilized by fraudsters who employ similar or false names to trick investors or financial institutions. In the scenario of emerging economies, many companies might not identify digitally or easily traceable. LEI can serve as a trusted identity anchor in these situations. It helps for Know Your Customer and Anti-Money Laundering procedures by ensuring that financial institutions can distinguish legitimate entities from high-risk or fraudulent ones. Bringing Transparency in Cross-Border Transactions Emerging market economies often depend on international trade and cross-border capital flows. These transactions involve multiple parties from different countries which makes it hard to determine the identities of everyone involved. LEI is a tool for improving financial transparency and confirming the identities of partners from abroad with high certainty. LEI establishes a standard identity framework that applies to all different jurisdictions. This clear identification makes it harder for fraudsters to hide behind fake company names or set up shell companies. It ensures an honest global financial system and makes it more difficult for people to move money illegally across borders. Focusing on Risk Management for Financial Institutions Financial institutions and banks that operate in emerging markets might face a risk of getting themselves exposed to credit and counterparty risks. It happens due to the limited information available about the financial health of a prospective client and credibility. By having LEI in their risk management strategies, they can access the accurate and standardized information about the organizations they are doing business with. This reduces the risk of accepting fraudulent clients and making it easy to detect irregular patterns in transactions. Regulators can use LEI information to detect the clusters of related entities that can expose fraud or money laundering networks that might remain undiscovered otherwise. Regulatory Synergy and Cross-Border Enforcement LEI brings consistent identification of entities across all regulatory bodies and jurisdictions. This supports global cooperation to combat financial fraud. Regulators can connect entities that operate under different names across multiple countries and identify fraud networks with streamlined investigations. LEI makes it simple to exchange data between countries which helps authorities in responding to complicated and multinational financial crimes more efficiently. This is particularly beneficial for emerging markets looking to align with international financial standards and to bring effective participation in the global financial system. Supporting Digital Transformation in Governance When emerging markets begin to digitize the public sector, LEI gives an authentic layer of legal identity to business entities on digital platforms like tax systems and regulatory filings. They ensure that only verified businesses can use government systems which minimizes fraud in subsidies and contracts. LEI encourages open data initiatives that bring more accountability and oversight. With its integration into electronic governance systems, nations can focus on increasing transparency and fight corruption. This can let them have more effective and secure public and financial infrastructures. Challenges in LEI Adoption in Emerging Markets Perceived Complexity and Cost: Small businesses often view LEI as an additional bureaucratic burden or unnecessary expense, majorly when they are not mandated locally by authorities. Regulatory Gaps: Many emerging economies do not ask for LEI or its enforcement in various industries. This results in unintended use and low incentives to ensure compliance. Limited Infrastructure: In some regions, you can find, digital systems for entity registration and verification are under development which makes LEI issuance and maintenance process more difficult. Overcoming These: Government and Regulatory Mandates: Financial regulators and central banks require LEI in certain transactions like high-value payment or cross-border transactions. These specific mandates ensure compliance and help to build momentum. Public Awareness Campaigns: Educational programs can help understand the LEI and emphasize their advantages in enhancing compliance and reducing the fraud risk. Incentivizing Adoption: Banks and governments can provide benefits, including faster onboarding times or fewer documentation requirements for organizations that hold active LEI. Simplifying the Process: Collaborating with local registration bodies and including LEI in existing national business registers can speed up the process of issuance and update. Conclusion In the fight against financial fraud, LEI gives a powerful solution by assigning every legal entity a globally recognized ID. It shines a light on the often tricky world of corporate ownership and financial activity. Knowing your counterparties can make or break a deal which makes LEI not just helpful but essential.
